The Play Offs haven't been as successful for my picks as last season, but the season has proved to be a very profitable one and that's all you can ask for back in September when everything gets going.
I hope the last three games will at least add to that as we get the games going.
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos Pick: We know what the Broncos are able to do with the powerful Offense they have been running all season, although there have been small signs that teams are beginning to get a hang of what they are seeing. Even then, it is tough to find a way to stop the likes of Demaryius Thomas, Erik Decker, Julius Thomas and Wes Welker and that is just the Receivers and not accounting for the Running Backs coming out of the backfield.
Bill Belichick is sure to have something up his sleeve in a bid to rattle Peyton Manning when he does drop back to pass and the New England Patriots have found pressure from their pass rush. The Patriots should also show more discipline than the San Diego Chargers who were probably dreaming about 'Omaha' on their journey back to California after the loss last weekend.
If New England can at least force Manning to think about where the pressure is coming from, they have a Defense that can cause some disruption in the passing game, but it will all begin and end up front. If the pressure is not there, we did see Andrew Luck have decent success throwing the ball against the Patriots last week and there is no doubt that Denver hold many more weapons than the Colts did without Reggie Wayne in their line up.
It is not like the Patriots can sell out to defend the pass either as Manning is smart enough to check into a run play if there are not the number of men in the box that he is expecting. New England have struggled against the rush without Vince Wilfork so the likes of Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball should be able to keep the chains moving if they are handed the ball by the Quarter Back.
The rushing attack has also been all the rage in New England in their last few games and that was highlighted by the team scoring over 40 points against Indianapolis, yet Tom Brady didn't throw one Touchdown pass. New England have lost some serious Receivers since last season and during the course of this one through injury, but the Offensive Line seems to have enjoyed pounding the ball on the ground and that has seen LeGarroutte Blount show off his own ability.
Between Blount, Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley, New England have the change of pace at the Running Back position and they have all been effective, although it might not be so easy against a stout Denver Defense. Despite the injuries on that side of the ball, the Broncos have continued making it tough to run the ball against them and they showed that off last week by shutting down the San Diego Chargers when it came to an element that had hurt them at times in the regular season.
That does mean New England are likely to rely on Tom Brady a little more in this one than they did last week and the Quarter Back could open the running lanes by having success through the air. Von Miller is out for the Broncos, but they still managed to get a pass rush going against San Diego, and that is an area that the Patriots Offensive Line haven't always been as comfortable with.
Denver will have to get to Brady if they are to win this game, particularly with the injury suffered by Chris Harris last week which exposed a Secondary in the last quarter against the Chargers. Brady might not have the household names any more, but Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman could pose problems for the Broncos if Quentin Jammer hasn't improved his play with a week of practice under his belt. That will at least give New England the chance to compete in a shoot-out too and could be the biggest problem for Denver to deal with in this game.
Both of these teams have had me convinced that they are the right side to back at different times during the week and it has been tough to get a real feel for being on the correct side, although I have eventually landed with taking New England and the points to at least keep this game competitive.
The Patriots know all about Peyton Manning and while his Offense looks loaded with talented weapons, I think Bill Belichick will do enough to give Tom Brady and his own Offense the chance to surprise the home team.
That's not to say New England will prevent Denver scoring points, I just think the Defense will have enough success to at least limit them to the point that the Patriots own Offense can score enough points to stay with them.
It is easy to see one mistake being critical to which teams goes through to the Super Bowl in New York, but getting more than a field goal head start on New England looks a touch too high. That is especially the case considering the Patriots have rarely been beaten comfortably with their highest point loss being just 7 points all season and I can see Tom Brady at least scoring late to get within the number.
The Patriots are also a good team that has won 13 games this season and the trend that teams that have won at least 12 games but have a weaker record than their opponent are 39-11 against the spread does favour them. However, coming off big blow out wins in the Play Offs has been tough to back up and that has to be a concern for the Patriots backers.
Even then, the absence of Chris Harris for Denver looks to be opening a big enough hole in the Secondary for New England to find a way to exploit it and I think Tom Brady is already a touch annoyed at being the underdog. He mentioned last weekend that no one will expect New England to win and the Patriots have always been strong in that position too so I will take the points in this one and just hope for a close Denver win (that's the Miami Dolphin fan coming out of me at the end).
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: One of the questions that is going to need answering is how well Russell Wilson plays at the Quarter Back position with some in the media beginning to question how well he is playing. It is true that Wilson hasn't been at his best the last few games, but he is a Quarter Back that relishes the big game and he will be able to make plays against this Secondary if he can scramble away from the pressure that San Francisco have been generating with the return of Aldon Smith.
It will begin by handing the ball to Marshawn Lynch and letting 'Beast Mode' try and pick up some yards on the ground, although it has to be said that the 49ers Defense is playing the run very well in recent games. While they have been productive in that regards all season, the 49ers have only given up 3.4 yards per carry over their last three games, although don't expect Seattle to get away from the game plan as Lynch is capable of breaking tackles.
The Seahawks will look to keep San Francisco honest by using the run, but it might also be a good idea to design runs for Russell Wilson as the Offense needs to stay in third and manageable situations if they are to sustain drives. Otherwise, the 49ers can pin back their ears on obvious passing downs and pressure Wilson, while they have also shown good discipline to contain running Quarter Backs as shown against Cam Newton last week.
Wilson is likely to be not have Percy Harvin in the Receiver position to give him another threat, but there is enough in their passing game to think they can get the ball downfield against a Secondary that has been burnt through the air.
Another factor the Seahawks will look to employ is their home field advantage which has bamboozled the 49ers the last two times they have visited here. The crowd is loud, while the Seattle Defense is probably the best one in the NFL and these are conditions that Colin Kaepernick will have to deal with if the 49ers are to return to the Super Bowl for the second season in succession.
To Kaepernick's defence, he will have a lot more weapons to go against the Seattle 'Legion of Boom' this time as he has Michael Crabtree and a healthy Vernon Davis to complement Anquan Boldin, but that doesn't necessarily mean he will find a way to move the chains throughout the game.
Like Seattle, San Francisco begin by trying to run the ball but the Seahawks Defense has been absolutely bruising against those attacks in recent games. There were a couple of times when teams had success moving the ball on the ground, but I am not sure Frank Gore will get too much joy against a Defense that has allowed 2.4 yards per carry over their last three games.
Again, like Seattle, San Francisco are likely to design more running plays for Colin Kaepernick at the Quarter Back position to keep the Offense in third and manageable situations. If you think San Francisco have a decent pass rush, Seattle's is as fierce as any in the NFL and they will give this Offensive Line a lot of problems in late down and long distance if the 49ers can't keep the Offense in a good position.
Kaepernick may have his full complement of weapons back, but the Seattle Secondary is physical and have the ability to make plays under pressure so it will be a tough test for the Quarter Back to make the plays with his arm. I do think he will have some success, but Kaepernick has to make the right decisions too as turnovers have been one of the main problems in the last two games here which has seen the game get out of hand. At home, Seattle have the highest turnover differential in the NFL so you know they are capable of forcing Interceptions which could be critical for their chances to make it back to the big game.
So what can you say about this game that you wouldn't have read already? We all know it is a fierce rivalry that has been best described as the 'new Pittsburgh-Baltimore' of the NFL and I expect it to be as physical and bruising as those Steelers-Ravens games have been over the years.
The two teams are almost mirror images of one another with the same basic principle of tough Defense and using the ground and pound when they have the ball on Offense. What has made a difference in their games has been home field advantage and it is a big mental obstacle for the 49ers to overcome after taking back to back heavy losses in visits to Seattle.
Colin Kaepernick does have more weapons at his disposal, but this physical Defense of the Seahawks matches up well against them and I think turnovers are more likely to come from the 49ers which could prove to be the difference at the end of the game.
It is the turnovers that have killed the 49ers in their last two visits to Seattle and the loud crowd could help force some more to win the game for the home team and help them cover the spread in this one.
The Seahawks have been a strong home favourite to back in recent years and are 24-10 against the spread in that spot since 2007, but they do have to reverse the fact that the underdog is 9-4 against the spread in the last 13 NFC Conference Championship Games. In fact, the underdog has won the last 4 NFC Championship Games, but the 'sharp' money is backing the Seahawks and I do think they are going to prove a little too good for a San Francisco team that is playing their third road game in three weeks.
MY PICKS: New England Patriots + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Divisional Round: 1-3, - 4 Units
Wild Card Round: 2-2, - 0.10 Units
Week 17: 7-1, + 10.68 Units
Week 16: 4-6, - 4.23 Units
Week 15: 2-6, - 5.32 Units
Week 14: 5-4, + 0.54 Units
Week 13: 6-4-1, + 3.65 Units
Week 12: 6-4, + 1.43 Units
Week 11: 6-2, + 7.59 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.86 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units
Wild Card Round: 2-2, - 0.10 Units
Week 17: 7-1, + 10.68 Units
Week 16: 4-6, - 4.23 Units
Week 15: 2-6, - 5.32 Units
Week 14: 5-4, + 0.54 Units
Week 13: 6-4-1, + 3.65 Units
Week 12: 6-4, + 1.43 Units
Week 11: 6-2, + 7.59 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.86 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units
Season 2013: 84-69-2, + 20.53 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units
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