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Wednesday 1 January 2014

New Year's Day Football Picks 2014 (January 1st)

And just like that, we have reached 2014 and the start of what could be a very strong year for football fans throughout the world. Of course, the big event during the course of the year is going to be the World Cup in Brazil that will begin in June, but the Premier League looks like it will be a fascinating race with a number of teams all expecting to challenge.

The relegation battle is no less exciting thanks to a positive Christmas showing for the teams that had entered the festive period in the bottom three.

Of course, this is a good time for people to predict what they think will happen over the next five months of the domestic and European seasons and I am going to follow that trend:

Premier League Winner: Manchester City- Away form looks to be improving and I think they have too much quality in the squad compared with their rivals.

Top Four: Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea- same four as last season, but I think Liverpool will push teams all the way and Tottenham Hotspur could be improved with the attacking philosophy that Tim Sherwood seems to be showing.

Relegation: Sunderland, Cardiff City and Crystal Palace- this looks a very close race and I have just gone with Sunderland to continue the trend of bottom at Christmas and go down that has been in force during the Premier League years. I also predict Cardiff City with the management issues, and Crystal Palace who I don't believe have the requisite quality now although that could change after the January transfer window comes to a close.

League Cup: Manchester City- looks like being a Final between Manchester City and Manchester United after they were kept apart in the Semi Finals.

FA Cup: Manchester United- it has been ten years since Manchester United last won this competition, it is the one that David Moyes came closest to winning as manager of Everton and United begin with a home game in the Third Round. The draw is critical, but this could be the competition that David Moyes wins his first silverware at Old Trafford, just as it provided for Sir Alex Ferguson.

Top Scorer: Luis Suarez- the injury to Sergio Aguero opens the door for Suarez to take home the title as long as he doesn't racially abuse/bite an opponent and has to serve another long ban.

Player of the Season: Luis Suarez- should be a shoo-in if he keeps his nose clean and potentially follows last season's Player of the Year, Gareth Bale, with a move to Real Madrid if Liverpool don't finish in the top four.

Champions League Winner: Real Madrid- I have a feeling this could be their year with doubts surrounding Barcelona and Bayern Munich after tough draws in the last 16. The English sides still look short of the best teams in Europe and I think Real Madrid have the scoring power to go all the way with Cristiano Ronaldo and Gareth Bale in their ranks.

Europa League Winner: Shakhtar Donetsk- this is always a difficult competition to predict as teams don't always take it seriously, but Shakhtar have the quality and the experience of winning this before. The likes of Juventus, Napoli and Tottenham Hotspur will all believe in their chances to win this one too if they play their strong teams throughout the rest of the competition.


December proved to be another strong month for the picks to make it four months in a row with a profit from the football picks- that has turned around a terrible start to the season when August went completely down the drain, but the last four months has had a couple of big months that will hopefully continue going into the new calendar year.


Swansea v Manchester City Pick: One of my reasons for picking Manchester City to win the Premier League title is an improving away form to complement their strong record at the Etihad Stadium and I believe they can show those improvements at the Liberty Stadium.

The early live game kicks of the 2014 calendar year and City have the chance to move to the top of the Premier League, albeit for a few hours, if they can win at Swansea and follow the likes of Manchester United, Arsenal and Everton to do so.

Swansea haven't been as effective this season as they were last season and I do continue to blame the extra games of the Europa League for their plight. Too many inconsistent performances and missing the likes of Michu does give Manchester City the edge in my opinion, even though they are missing Sergio Aguero.

Goals haven't been a problem for Manchester City as they have scored at least 3 goals in 4 of their last 5 away games in all competitions which includes in 2 of their last 3 away games in the Premier League. However, they continue to ship them at an alarming rate on their travels, failing to keep a clean sheet in 10 of their last 11 games, and Swansea did score against the other top teams they have hosted this season.

With that in mind, backing Manchester City to win in a game where both teams score looks the right call.


Arsenal v Cardiff City Pick: I may have my doubts about this current Arsenal squad being able to mount a realistic Premier League title challenge, but they did earn an impressive win at Newcastle United in their last game which did catch my attention.

It will be results like that one that will keep Arsenal amongst the leading contenders for the title and it also meant they finished 2013 in first place, a position from which the last 4 Premier League Champions have won the title.

That bodes well for Arsenal and I expect them to see off Cardiff City in this one to make sure they end this evening at the top of the table. Mesut Ozil may not be available, but there is plenty of attacking talent in the Arsenal squad to think they can score in this one, but the bigger impact may come from a defence that has been strong at home with only 6 goals conceded in 9 games, 3 of those goals coming in one match.

The Asian Handicap is set for Arsenal to cover 2 goals, but they have won a number of games here by the same 2-0 scoreline of late, although they have only managed draws in their last 2 games. In fact, Arsenal have kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 6 games here and Cardiff have struggled for goals away from home all season.

Cardiff did manage to find the net at Chelsea and Liverpool, but there is a lot of uncertainty at the club right now and confidence may be dented by the 2-2 draw with Sunderland when Cardiff were leading 2-0 inside the last ten minutes. They just may struggle against a solid enough defence to score in this game and I like Arsenal to win with a clean sheet to boot.


Liverpool v Hull City Pick: Back to back defeats at Manchester City and Chelsea will have been a timely reminder to Liverpool as to how much is required for them to realistically consider a title challenge. The January transfer window may see them strengthen the squad, but the most important aim for Liverpool this season is finding their way back into the Champions League.

Liverpool have been strong at Anfield all season and they have won their last 6 games here in the Premier League since the surprise 0-1 loss to Southampton, They have scored plenty of goals, but the squad has been stretched with the amount of games they have had to play in a short period of time and that is where Hull City will feel they can make life difficult.

No Steven Gerrard or Daniel Sturridge means Liverpool can't make the rotations in the squad that they would perhaps want, while Hull City have been tough to play through the season and are coming off a huge 6-0 win over Fulham. However, they have lost 6 of their last 9 away games in the Premier League and have lost by a couple of goals at Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal so there is every chance Liverpool can become the latest to do that if Luis Suarez is in form.

Goals have been plentiful for Liverpool in front of their own fans and backing them to win this one by a couple of goals, at least, is the call.


Southampton v Chelsea Pick: Another live game on New Year's Day sees two teams that have had decent first halves of the season take on one another at St Mary's when Southampton host Chelsea.

Southampton made such a start to the season that some fans were dreaming of the Champions League, but those results have slipped in recent weeks and the defence which had played so well is beginning to look vulnerable.

I think Chelsea are good enough to take advantage of the new found issues in defence, but they also look like a team that will give their opposition chances to score and Southampton have been the kind of team that has enough attacking potential to create chances and score goals.

It is hard to separate these teams, but I have a feeling that recent history which has seen the 4 games since Southampton have been promoted, and 7 in a row in total, see at least 3 goals shared will continue in this game. I am expecting both teams to score at least once and I do think there will be the opportunity for either side to claim the three points so backing at least 3 goals to be scored is my prediction.


West Brom v Newcastle United Pick: When these teams met at St James' Park around a month ago, I picked for the game to end with at least three goals shared between the teams and I have a feeling we could see something similar in this one.

West Brom are still searching for their new manager to replace Steve Clarke, but they showed their capabilities in front of goal and also their defensive issues in their 3-3 draw at West Ham United in their last game.

They are going to be hosting a Newcastle United team that will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing home loss against Arsenal, but one that has won 3 of their last 4 away games in the Premier League. However, it is also interesting to note that 6 of Newcastle's last 8 away games in the League have ended with at least three goals shared and this fixture has a habit of producing goals.

If West Brom defend as they did against West Ham at times, Newcastle will feel they can come here and win, but the Baggies will also be able to cause some problems going forward so I will be looking for goals in this one.


Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This could potentially be a huge game for these two sides that are chasing a place in the top four as a minimum aim this season and it is a game where I feel Manchester United can come out on top.

Wayne Rooney is still a doubt, but Manchester United are beginning to show the resilience that has made them champions over the years and that has led to 5 straight wins in all competitions as they come menacingly up the table and within striking distance of the leading teams.

This certainly represents a tough game against a Tottenham Hotspur side that has won the joint most away games in the Premier League so far and one that has shown more attacking intentions since Tim Sherwood replaced Andre Villas-Boas as manager.

I would be surprised if Sherwood asks his team to take a backward step in this one and that should pose Manchester United problems, especially as United have kept just 1 clean sheet in their last 7 Premier League games at Old Trafford. A couple of those games ended with 0-1 losses against Everton and Newcastle United, but confidence does look a little more stable coming into this one.

That confidence may see United coming through and winning this game against a Tottenham side that also have struggled for clean sheets in recent away games, but who have been able to out-score teams. Spurs will be dangerous on the counter-attack, but I think Manchester United are going to be too strong and, like their local rivals, I think United come through and win a game in which both teams score.

MY PICKS: Both Teams to Score and Manchester City to Win @ 3.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Arsenal Win to Nil @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Southampton-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Brom-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.90 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Manchester United to Win @ 3.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

December Final19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/1482-79-3, + 15.89 Units (266 Units Staked, + 5.97% Yield)
Season 2012/13+ 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

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