Australian Open Day 8 Picks 2014 (January 20th)

For a long time this week, the tennis has gone in the way that most would have expected and the Australian Open seemed to lack the drama of previous years when we have seen some surprise Finalists come through the draws.

That all changed on Sunday as Serena Williams, who had been suffering with a back complaint, was ousted by Ana Ivanovic in three sets and really opened up the women's draw. For as well as Serena has played over the last couple of years, she has fallen victim to some really surprising losses at the Grand Slam level and that is one of the main reasons she is a hard player to back at short odds to win the events.

There is always one occasion where Williams does not bring her best tennis to the court and we have seen the likes of Virginie Razzano, Sloane Stephens and Sabine Lisicki surprise her in the major tournaments before adding Ana Ivanovic to that list. It was a very strong performance from Ivanovic, but it has also left my outright pick, Victoria Azarenka, as the favourite to go on and win her third Australian Open title.


The men's draw has followed a more familiar pattern with all the big names still in the tournament bar Juan Martin Del Potro and that should mean some brilliant matches for the fans in the coming days. Those matches will begin with Roger Federer taking on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the Fourth Round on Monday, but the Quarter Final match between Stanislas Wawrinka and Novak Djokovic could be a treat if their last two matches at the Grand Slam tournaments are anything to go by.


It was also an almost perfect day for the picks which have really pushed the overall record for the tournament into a very positive position. It is helped by the fact that all four outright picks are also alive and hopefully this will all lead to good things by the end of the week.


Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 sets v Roberto Bautista-Agut: You can only be impressed with the run that Roberto Bautista-Agut has made at the first Grand Slam of the season which includes a hard fought win over Juan Martin Del Potro, but I feel the run will come to an end on Monday.

He is going up against Grigor Dimitrov who may be ready to reach the Quarter Final at a Slam for the first time, especially after coming through a big test of his credentials in the last Round with a four set win over Milos Raonic.

It won't be an easy match for Dimitrov who was beaten the last time these players met at the back end of last season, but I think he is the player with more ability in the match and I can see that making the difference when nerves set in.

Bautista-Agut will be able to cause some problems of his own, but his serve can sometimes be vulnerable against a returner like Dimitrov who will force the Spaniard to earn his points. The first two sets may end up being split, but I like 'Baby Federer' to find a way to come through in four sets at most.


Rafael Nadal - 8.5 games v Kei Nishikori: When a player puts together a near perfect game as Rafael Nadal did in his Third Round win over Gael Monfils, it can be tough for them to pick up their game for their next match but I am not convinced that will be the case in this one.

Nadal is unlikely to drop his level too much as he showed throughout 2013, and the opponent Kei Nishikori looks like a tailor made match up for the Spaniard and could be the latest lamb going to the slaughter.

The young Japanese player is solid, but has rarely impressed me when I have seen him play and he will look to out-grind Nadal and I don't foresee him having too much success trying that tactic. He can be a flashy shot maker at times, but I don't believe he has enough weapons to hurt Nadal on a regular basis and this should be a fairly routine win for Nadal.

Interestingly, Nishikori has been beaten comfortably in his exits at the Australian Open and I can see Nadal recording a similar result to the one he enjoyed against him at the French Open last year.


Maria Sharapova - 3.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: I am surprised that the layers are making this match as competitive as they are, but I guess they believe the limited time that Dominika Cibulkova has spent on court in dispatching her last two opponents will have her in a fresh enough physical state in this Fourth Round match.

They may not have considered the opponents that Cibulkova has beaten so far with Maria Sharapova being the biggest hitter and comfortably the best player she would have seen.

That big hitting is going to make the Cibulkova serve very important in this one and she has to get a high percentage of serves in play if she is to cause the upset. However, Sharapova will be waiting on the second serves and I think she will prove to be too powerful for the smaller player and will have more chances to break serve.

Sharapova has had to come through some tough moments to reach the Fourth Round, but the exit of Serena Williams would have just focused her even more and I like the Russian to win this one 63, 64.


Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games v Sloane Stephens: This is the match that potentially stood out when the draw was made after all the controversy that surrounded Victoria Azarenka's win over Sloane Stephens last year in the Semi Finals.

That should ensure the crowd are going to be on the side of the young American, but there have been some talk that Stephens isn't at 100% for this tournament and it will be tough for her to see off Azarenka if that is the case.

There have also been signs that Azarenka has improved as each Round has gone through and she has the confidence of playing in a tournament where she has had her most success at Grand Slam level. She will have to continue to serve effectively to see off Stephens, but the youngster is still a little erratic in her play and I can see one set being competitive, but the other being dominated by Azarenka which should see the cover.

It could end up being a similar scoreline to last season, but without the controversy as I expect Azarenka to come through 64, 62.


Agnieszka Radwanska - 3.5 games v Garbine Muguruza: As one of the rising stars of the women's Tour, Garbine Muguruza can really make a statement of her arrival by reaching the Quarter Finals and knocking off another top ten player, but I think Agnieszka Radwanska's experience and know-how will prove too much for her.

Like Carolina Wozniacki in the Third Round, Radwanska will look to frustrate Muguruza by forcing her to play as many tennis balls as possible and I believe the Pole is still a little too good at that game for the young player to deal with.

Pressure is another factor as Muguruza has never experienced being this deep in a Grand Slam and I think that also makes a real difference when the match is said and done, especially in the late night session with all eyes on this one match.

While Radwanska beat Muguruza in their sole meeting for the loss of just 5 games, I expect this to be a little closer but the experience of the higher Ranked player to lead to a 64, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 8.5 Games @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 Games @ 2.02 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 3.5 Games @ 1.81 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 19-13, + 10.7 Units (59 Units Staked, + 18.14% Yield)