That mean teams played their starters throughout games and I was also at the end of a bit of fortune with Randall Cobb catching a Touchdown pass from Aaron Rodgers at the end of the Green Bay Packers-Chicago Bears game.
With Dallas keeping it close against the Philadelphia Eagles, the picks had a big week to end the regular season in a very positive manner as we move into the Play Offs.
Black Monday also came through with a number of Head Coaches removed from their positions and we also saw Tampa Bay pick up Lovie Smith as their new Head Coach. I think that is going to prove to be a very good move, especially with Lesley Frazier in as Defensive Co-Ordinator, while I also have a good feeling for the Houston Texans and their appointment of Bill O'Brien from Penn State.
The Wild Card Weekend has three rematches from the regular season which gives us some film tape to look at, but you have to consider each match up as they come. After a strong Play Offs last year, I am hoping the picks can pick up from where they left off last year.
Here are my picks from the Wild Card Weekend.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: A repeat of a regular season game means we have some game film of these two teams against one another and the one thing I noticed from the first game is that Kansas City made a few critical mistakes and Indianapolis had a couple of big plays that made all the difference.
You can see that the sharps in Las Vegas are all over the Chiefs in this first of the Wild Card games with the spread coming down through the week to the point that we the favourites have slipped places.
I think the turf in Indianapolis is going to help Jamaal Charles of the Kansas City Chiefs and I think there is every chance that he is going to have a big game and this whole game could be decided on how well the Indianapolis Colts contain the Running Back.
Charles will be able to get plenty going on the ground, if that is what Andy Reid sticks with, but he is also a big threat catching short passes from Alex Smith and ripping off huge gains in the open field. Indianapolis have to tackle well and restrict those gains if they are to give their team a chance to win this game.
I believe the Chiefs have more success moving the chains in this game than in Week 16, although Robert Mathis and co will keep Smith under pressure as they attack this Offensive Line. Smith has to restrict the mistakes to give the Chiefs an opportunity to score points and give them the best chance to knock off Andrew Luck.
However, the Chiefs will also need Justin Houston, Tamba Hali and Dontari Poe to bring their early season form into this one and push back the Indianapolis Colts Offensive Line to keep Andrew Luck under pressure and hide the issues in the Secondary. If Luck has time, he will have a chance to attack the Chiefs downfield, while Kansas City also have to be aware of the short passes to the Running Back coming out of the backfield which did hurt them in the first game.
Donald Brown or Trent Richardson should also be able to run the ball more effectively than they have for much of the season, especially as the Chiefs Defense has been susceptible to the rush. That will also keep Luck in a decent position to make plays and also just slow down the pass rush to an extent to give the Quarter Back some time.
Luck has also won his two previous starts against Kansas City which has me favouring Indianapolis in this game. I do think Andy Reid will have a decent game plan organised to make this a closer game than the one in Week 16, especially if his Offense avoids the mistakes that killed them that day.
I also like the fact that a team that was an underdog in the regular season game, but is favoured in the Play Offs is 5-3 against the spread when the game is played at a different venue. I also have to respect the fact that the home underdog is 13-5 against the spread in this round of the Play Offs as well as an underdog of between 1-3 points is 26-19-1 against the spread which backs the Colts in this one.
I have to go against the sharps in this one and will back the Colts, as the underdog, to win this game.
New Orleans Saints @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: All we have been hearing all week is how the New Orleans Saints can't play outdoors and how the cold is going to affect them so much and it is no surprise that the Philadelphia Eagles have been set as the favourites to win this game.
However, that hasn't taken into consideration that two late plays cost the Saints against New England and Carolina and they did win in Chicago, so I don't think the confidence is going to be shot in the Saints just because they have to go on the road. It's not ideal of course, but they have every chance of coming through this first test at Philadelphia with the Offense they have.
The Saints Offense is certainly more potent at home, but this Philadelphia Secondary has struggled in pass coverage and that isn't the best preparation to face the likes of Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, Lance Moore and Kenny Stills. The Running Backs are also a problem to deal with coming out of the backfield and I think it will be tough for the Eagles to slow down this Offense throughout the game.
However, on the other hand, Philadelphia's Offense should also have plenty of success when they have the ball in their hands. LeSean McCoy and the running game should have a lot of room against this Saints Defense and that could be key for the Eagles if they are to win the game. Establishing this form of attack will give Nick Foles a chance to hurt New Orleans in the Secondary as they are missing two big pieces of that unit and also give the Eagles plenty of chances to score points.
The Offensive Line will have to play better though because Rob Ryan will send a lot of exotic looks at Nick Foles and the Quarter Back has been taking a few sacks of late as he doesn't want to force throws that lead to turnovers. That could at least force a few punts for the Saints which could prove to be the difference in a game where both teams should be able to move up and down the field.
Nick Foles is also making his first start in the Play Offs where QBs are just 3-10 against the spread as the favourite. Add the fact that the team with the better strength of schedule coming into the Wild Card Round is 32-12 against the spread and the same stat from the above game that small underdogs have a strong record all favour New Orleans in this one.
All in all, the head start given to New Orleans looks to be worth backing.
San Diego Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: This is probably one of the more surprising games in the Wild Card Round of the Play Offs after San Diego somehow managed to squeeze into the Play Offs, but that might make the Chargers a dangerous proposition for Cincinnati.
Philip Rivers and the Chargers have been capable of controlling the clock and sustaining drives in games I have seen them play this season, but they found that to be one of the more difficult tasks against Cincinnati earlier in the regular season in what was a low-scoring game.
The Bengals are a much different team to face when playing in front of their fans as shown by their 8-0 record to finish the season and Andy Dalton now has the Play Off experience and the fortune of playing in front of his own fans. Dalton is certainly a better Quarter Back here and he has enough weapons to hurt San Diego, even more so when considering Cincinnati averaged almost 35 points per game here.
Those points are helped by the Defense which has created turnovers at home and are capable of forcing teams into tough third down situations. You have to credit San Diego for being a clean team for much of the season with few turnovers through the Offense, but they did have 3 against Cincinnati in the first game.
Turnovers look to be a big key in this game as to who will come out on top and it would be a surprise to see Cincinnati overcome the Interceptions that Andy Dalton threw last week against Baltimore. If Cincinnati look after the ball, I do like their chances to win this game and cover the spread.
A couple of trends also favour the Bengals including the team with the stronger strength of schedule going 32-12 against the spread in this Round. Another is the road team is actually 20-43-1 against the spread when playing a Divisional rival in Week 17.
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers Pick: There used to be a time when the Green Bay Packers were unbeatable on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field when it came to the Play Offs, but they are only 3-4 in their last 7 home games in the post-season.
The match up for them is not very good when you look at it on paper, especially for their Defense, but I also believe the Green Bay Packers will have their own success with the ball in their hands. The San Francisco Secondary has struggled against the pass in recent games and they can't sell out on playing that aspect alone with Eddie Lacy and James Starks both running the ball effectively.
It should be a fascinating game, but one I think San Francisco are going to be too strong and likely come out on top... However, I am taking the points in this game and the Packers to at least make it competitive.
I believe the Green Bay Offense can score points against this Defense with the return of their players and the extra dimension of a strong running game. The spread also looks out of sync considering the 49ers were just 5 points favourites when hosting Green Bay earlier this season and that was coming off a complete beat down of the same team in the Play Offs last year.
The trends also favour Green Bay when you see that a team that beat the other as a favourite and is then favoured to win in the Play Offs, even at a different venue, is just 2-8 against the spread. Green Bay also come in with the stronger strength of schedule (32-12 against the spread) and San Francisco were a road team at a Divisional rival in Week 17 (20-43-1 against the spread).
Being a home underdog has proved profitable in the past as well as being a small underdog (between 1-3 points) and all of these factors are favouring the Packers in this game.
It might not be a big number of points to be taking, but I will back the Packers with the points in this one.
MY PICKS: Indianapolis Colts + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints + 3 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Week 17: 7-1, + 10.68 Units
Week 16: 4-6, - 4.23 Units
Week 15: 2-6, - 5.32 Units
Week 14: 5-4, + 0.54 Units
Week 13: 6-4-1, + 3.65 Units
Week 12: 6-4, + 1.43 Units
Week 11: 6-2, + 7.59 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.86 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 16: 4-6, - 4.23 Units
Week 15: 2-6, - 5.32 Units
Week 14: 5-4, + 0.54 Units
Week 13: 6-4-1, + 3.65 Units
Week 12: 6-4, + 1.43 Units
Week 11: 6-2, + 7.59 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.86 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units
Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units
Season 2013: 81-64-2, + 24.63 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units
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