Australian Open Day 7 Picks 2014 (January 19th)

After a pretty poor start to the week where a lot of the picks seemed to get close but not quite get over the line, Day 6 proved to be a very strong day with 4 of the 5 picks all coming back into the winner's enclosure and turning around the profit/loss for the week.

It helps that all four outright picks have also made it through to the last 16 in the men's and women's draws respectively and hopefully that means the first Grand Slam of the season is going to end with a lot of positives at the end of the next week.


There is no guarantee of that with Rafael Nadal looking in imperious form after dismissing Gael Monfils with almost no effort on Saturday and he looks like being a big threat to Novak Djokovic's chances of winning the tournament again.

I also think my pick of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga winning the second quarter of the draw is going to need a lot of luck with back to back matches against Roger Federer and Andy Murray to be played and I don't believe he will be able to knock both of those men off consecutively.


The matches certainly do look more interesting going forward, although it is the top half of the men's draw which is providing most of the drama and I think we are going to see some fascinating tennis and not the straight-forward wins that the likes of Federer, Murray, Tsonga and Nadal all recorded on Saturday in the Third Round.

The Fourth Round should at least produce more competitive matches for the fans to enjoy with the favourites at least being given something to think about.


Novak Djokovic - 8.5 games v Fabio Fognini: He has been quietly going about his business in the draw, but I think this is the time for Novak Djokovic to remind people who is the defending Australian Open Champion after watching Rafael Nadal completely dismantle Gael Monfils on Saturday evening.

The match up is a fairly comfortable one for Djokovic despite the improvement in the way Fabio Fognini has been playing in the last twelve months, but the Italian doesn't have the big serve to get through games quickly and I do think the World Number 2 is going to win more of the rallies from the back of the court.

I have seen Fognini put together some impressive winners in his matches, even against the top players, but I don't think he can do that over a length of time needed in the best of five set matches and I believe that is where Djokovic will be able to pull away in the match.

It wouldn't surprise me if the first set is close, but eventually Djokovic prevails with a 64, 62, 63 win.


David Ferrer win 3-1 v Florian Mayer: It was Florian Mayer who won the last match between these two players and I do think he can pose David Ferrer a few problems in this Fourth Round match with the way both have been playing in the early part of this season.

David Ferrer just hasn't had the same results over the last six months as he had in the few years before and I do think he has lost just a half step in a few aspects of his game which makes him more vulnerable these days.

However, the heart is still beating strong and he has shown determination and the ability to grind out results so far this week and I think that will prove to be the difference between these two on Sunday.

I have to respect the way Florian Mayer has been playing too and he has the awkward style that can keep opponents guessing as to what is coming next. The German has enough in his locker to at least win one set in this match, although I am not convinced he will be able to win keep up with Ferrer in a long match and I like the higher Ranked player to come through in four sets.


Tomas Berdych - 6.5 games v Kevin Anderson: I think Kevin Anderson is over the virus that affected him in the early part of the month and he has shown some guts to come through two matches so far this week despite being 2-0 down in sets in both of those.

Unfortunately for Anderson, he is now facing Tomas Berdych who has beaten him in all 9 previous matches that have all be played in the last two years. That includes back to back wins over him at the Australian Open without dropping a set and the easier run through the draw should help the Czech player make it ten in a row in this Fourth Round match.

We know what to expect of both of these players- they will both look to dictate with big serves and a heavy forehand, but the edge for Berdych comes in his own return game as well as on the backhand wing where he is more solid than Anderson.

There is a lot of tennis in the Anderson legs too and I think that will show up here and Berdych will come through 63, 76, 63.


Na Li - 4.5 games v Ekaterina Makarova: There are just some players that others match up against very well and one of those is Na Li who seemingly has the edge against Ekaterina Makarova, a player she has beaten four times out of four meetings.

I think that is down to the fact that Li is more consistent and is aggressive off both wings which can be a problem for Makarova to deal with, especially if she is not serving as well as she can. The Australian Open has proved to be a tournament that Makarova enjoys, but Li is also a two time Finalist here so even the edge of being in surroundings that hold good memories will favour Li.

Li will have to serve better than she did when these two met at the US Open last summer and also better than she did in the win over Lucie Safarova in the Third Round, but I think she will have the belief in this match and should prove a little too good all around for Makarova.

I expect Li will win a close first set 64 and then come through 62 in the second to book her place in the Quarter Final.


Ana Ivanovic + 6.5 games v Serena Williams: Any time you back against Serena Williams on a tennis court, you are looking for the little bit of luck to help along the way, but I can't help but think that Ana Ivanovic is being given too many games in this Fourth Round match.

We all know how well Serena Williams has been playing and she is clearly head and shoulders above the rest in the women's game, but Ivanovic has a pretty big game herself and should have renewed confidence with improving fortunes over the last twelve months.

The Serb has also won a title already in 2014 and played well in seeing off Sam Stosur in the Third Round so that confidence should remain in a good place as she gets set to take on the Williams sister she has never beaten.

Ivanovic hasn't even won a set against Serena before, but the majority of them have at least been competitive and I think she can do the same in this one, although I will only have one unit against Serena who can turn up the pressure and demolish opponents when she is on her game.


Casey Dellacqua + 3.5 games v Eugenie Bouchard: This is one of the least expected Fourth Round matches and I don't think too many Australian fans would have picked Casey Dellacqua if I asked them to name the one home hope that would reach this stage of the tournament at the beginning of the event.

That support from the home crowd could pay dividends for Dellacqua in this match against the young, talented Eugenie Bouchard who is having her best Grand Slam result. It is going to be a different atmosphere than what Bouchard has seen in the first week as she is given the night session on the Rod Laver Arena with the fans going to be vocally behind her opponent.

You can't always predict whether a young player with thrive or collapse in such a situation and we will learn more about Bouchard in this match. However, she is also having to deal with an opponent that is having a hot week and has a big game that can cause problems when that confidence is flowing.

I do think Bouchard is the player with a lot more upside, but Dellacqua is having a dream run this week and I expect her to make this competitive even if she doesn't have enough to get through to the Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 1.80 Stan James (2 Units)
David Ferrer Win 3-1 @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Tomas Berdych - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Na Li - 4.5 Games @ 2.02 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic + 6.5 Games @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
Casey Dellacqua + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 14-12, + 2.94 Units (49 Units Staked, + 6% Yield)