I have been asking for drama at the Australian Open and the Quarter Final between Novak Djokovic and Stanislas Wawrinka provided plenty of that for the second year in a row between these two players.
On this occasion, it was Wawrinka who got the better of Djokovic in a long fifth set, but like last year, it was a close match that could have gone either way and I have to say I am happy for the Swiss man even if I had picked Djokovic to win the tournament.
I've always liked the Wawrinka game, but always felt he wasn't strong enough mentally to come through six matches to reach a Grand Slam Final, although the last twelve months have shown a real improvement in that area thanks to teaming up with Magnus Norman. While Norman was a very good player in his day, his Coaching credentials began to come to the fore with Robin Soderling, another player he turned into a credible threat at Grand Slam tournaments, helping his fellow Swede to back to back Finals at the French Open.
All credit to both Norman and Wawrinka and I think there is more than a chance for him to reach the Final on Sunday.
The loss for Djokovic means my main pick in the outright markets has exited the competition, although Tomas Berdych did secure his place in the Semi Final as predicted. That means the only outright runner still left to determine is whether Victoria Azarenka can win the women's event, although Na Li has looked in imperious form on the other side of the draw after escaping being match point down in the Third Round.
Despite the Djokovic loss, all four picks came through yesterday which has improved the margins for the tournament. It was a good day, but hopefully that isn't the end of the success of the last four days as we conclude the Quarter Finals on Day 10 including the fascinating match between Andy Murray and Roger Federer.
Rafael Nadal win 3-1 v Grigor Dimitrov: With the exit of Novak Djokovic, those who backed Rafael Nadal at the start of the tournament will be rubbing their hands together, but the Spaniard won't be taking either of his next two opponents lightly before reaching the Final on Sunday.
He has been in good form in this tournament, but Kei Nishikori may have taken something out of Nadal with a long Fourth Round match, although I don't believe Grigor Dimitrov is really ready to stamp his name on the men's game.
Anyone who follows the Tour knows of the potential that people believe Dimitrov has and making his first Grand Slam Quarter Final is another step in the right direction for his development, but dealing with this pressure against the World Number 1 looks a big ask.
Dimtrov will have to serve well throughout if he is to cause the surprise, although he can at least point to the fact that he has pushed Nadal in all three losing efforts against him, including twice last year. I think there is every chance he can at least take another set in this one with the form Dimitrov has shown, but I think Nadal is going to have a little too much experience for him and come through in four sets.
Andy Murray v Roger Federer: The form both players have shown in the first four Rounds at the Australian Open has only whetted my appetite for this Quarter Final even more than when the draw was made two weeks ago.
Andy Murray has looked good despite missing the last three months of last season after undergoing back surgery, while Roger Federer looked incredibly sharp in his win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the Fourth Round.
This is the 22nd meeting between the players with Andy Murray leading the way 12-9, but more importantly has won the last two matches in the best of five situation, including in Australian twelve months ago. That is all important considering Murray had lost the first three matches against Federer in Grand Slam tournaments and I think the match up is one that will take on a familiar feel.
Murray will look to attack the backhand wing of Federer, but the key to the match will be if Federer can bring the aggression he showed in the last Round and dictate the play behind his serve. He feels he is returning better which will also be key, but I think we won't see Federer's best with the new racquet until later this year while Murray can expose the frailties in the backhand wing.
This has all the hallmarks of a five setter, but I do think the wrong player has been favoured and will back Murray to get back to the Semi Final here with another best of five set win over the former World Number 1.
Dominika Cibulkova v Simona Halep: Coming off a win against a big player in unexpected fashion has proven to be pretty difficult to recover from, but that is the situation that faces Dominika Cibulkova in this Quarter Final and I believe she will beat Simona Halep in this one.
Cibulkova has never been beyond this stage at a Grand Slam, but she has shown decent form in the early part of 2014 and I think she has the toughness to overcome beating Maria Sharapova. There hasn't been the same level of media coverage of her win thanks to Ana Ivanovic knocking out Serena Williams and I think that will aid Cibulkova in this one.
The limited time on court should work to Cibulkova's favour in this one too, especially as Halep admitted she was feeling a little bit tired in her Fourth Round match against Jelena Jankovic and had to dig deep to come through.
Nothing will come straight-forward in this match with both players having to work hard to make a lot of balls and their opponents are good enough to cause plenty of problems. I just feel Cibulkova, who is the underdog, has a little more experience at this level and may just prove to be a little too good for Halep over three sets.
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: On paper, this should be a competitive match between two players that are Ranked in the top five in the World, but recent matches have only been going in one direction and comfortably to say the least.
For all the ability of Radwanska to force players to play one more ball, the power and consistency of the likes of Maria Sharapova, Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka is going to need more than defence to beat them.
Radwanska lets the likes of Azarenka dictate play and her serve doesn't hold up well in front of those that can return as well as the World Number 2 and I can only see this match going in a similar vein to their recent matches.
The first set may be competitive, but Azarenka's power and consistency is likely going to be too much for Radwanska to keep up with and I like the higher Ranked player to come through 64, 62.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal Win 3-1 @ 4.00 ToteSport (1 Unit)
Andy Murray @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova @ 2.50 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 26-15, + 20.81 Units (76 Units Staked, + 27.38% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment