It has been a terrible week for my picks, not out of bad luck but because I have made bad picks, and that is a real disappointment. I have perhaps read too much into some matches and chosen to avoid players, but then haven't let my nagging doubts stop me picking others.
It's not been smart on my part, but I hope I have cleansed my mind to a point and I can get back on track. At least Philipp Kohlschreiber has moved through to the Quarter Final in Auckland as my one outright pick of the week, even if he is facing John Isner in that match who is the second favourite to win this tournament.
Roberto Bautista-Agut v Jack Sock: This Quarter Final is probably a surprising one to many fans, especially with both Roberto Bautista-Agut and Jack Sock coming through against seeded players.
I have been impressed with the way Bautista-Agut has come through the draw this week and I think he is going to be the stronger player of the two in this Quarter Final, while Jack Sock is coming off a big surprise win over Tommy Haas yesterday.
Much like a lot of the Spaniards on the Tour, Bautista-Agut is a decent returner and I think he can make Sock work hard to win his points, while he has also transferred his game on to the hard courts with decent effect.
Of course, the hard courts will be the favoured surface for Sock, but he hasn't got the same returning game as Bautista-Agut and that could prove to be the difference in what looks a close match. I like the Spaniard to come through, possibly in three sets.
David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez: I may think David Ferrer is going to slip somewhat from the standards he has set over the last few years, but you can't ignore the domination he has experienced in Auckland.
I think this match up is also one that he should still enjoy as he faces his fellow Spaniard, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, on the hard courts where both will play a similar brand of tennis. However, it is clear that Ferrer has the edge when it comes to consistency and will likely win more of the points in extended rallies and that should send him through to the Semi Final with a decent win under his belt.
They haven't played one another for around 30 months, while Garcia-Lopez has had a couple of tough matches already this week. That could tell when this match gets going as the points are unlikely to be short and I do think Ferrer comes through 64, 63.
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 games v Tsvetana Pironkova: I was impressed with the way Tsvetana Pironkova dealt with Sara Errani in the Quarter Final yesterday, but it is a big ask for the Bulgarian to back that win up against Petra Kvitova with the latter in the form that she is in.
Winning all 3 matches at the Hopman Cup has clearly had a positive effect on Kvitova as she looks to get back to being a contender at the Grand Slam level after a down year in 2013. There were too many inconsistencies in the Kvitova game, but she has started off much stronger with the serve working and forcing her opponents under pressure.
There have been plenty of 61 and 62 sets for Kvitova to feast on and she has the power to force Pironkova back and not let her get involved in comfortable rallies as Errani did at times yesterday. I expect the Czech player to have success against the Pironkova serve and as long as Kvitova keeps serving in the manner she has been, I think she comes through fairly comfortably with a 62, 64 win.
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Madison Keys: About the only thing I got right yesterday was that Madison Keys wouldn't beat Bethanie Mattek-Sands, but even that was because of a retirement from Mattek-Sands early in the first set.
Now Keys has reached this Semi Final against Angelique Kerber and I have to say I am going to go against the young American again, although women's tennis can be tough to see this spreads covered if the player backed is struggling with their serve.
For the most part, Kerber has been serving well enough to think she can come through this match fairly comfortably as she will force Keys to hit plenty of shots, while also quickly changing from defence to attack to catch the younger player off-guard.
Keber must serve well, that will be key to this spread, but she has been solid enough behind that shot to think she can come through 64, 63.
MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista-Agut @ 1.80 Stan James (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-7, - 7.42 Units (13 Units Staked, - 57.1% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment