Australian Open Day 6 Picks 2014 (January 18th)

I have rarely seen a Grand Slam tournament that has had as few surprise results as this one, especially when it comes to the top seeds in both events. Petra Kvitova is one big name that has exited the tournament, but mainly the best players have been getting through and that can only be good news for the fans coming in for the last week of the tournament.

We've always known that the little things make the big differences in why a player is in the top ten in the World Rankings and perhaps out of the top 50, one of those being conditioning and I think the heat here has certainly been separating the best from the rest.

I know you can't guarantee how a player reacts to the immense heat they have been facing in Melbourne Park, and I am also aware that players like Victoria Azarenka and Novak Djokovic have had problems in such conditions in the past, but that was before both players reached the very top of the women's and men's games respectively.

Nowadays, both have huge reserves in strength which aids them to come through the conditions they face and I think that has made a difference in why so many of the top players have been getting through their matches.


The Third Round is to be concluded on Saturday (or Friday night if you are in Europe) and it should set up some fascinating Fourth Round matches and I am very much looking forward to the remaining week that we have coming up. It would be nice if the picks earn a little more luck, although the Sam Querrey prediction to beat Fabio Fognini had been nagging at the back of my mind and I should have given that more attention.

Richard Gasquet also was a surprise loser to Tommy Robredo which didn't help and I am now hoping that I can get on the right side of some of the poor luck and bad decisions I have made so far this week.

The only positive is the four outright picks are all moving through the draws, although Serena Williams has looked unstoppable in the women's draw to make me wonder if Victoria Azarenka can win her third straight title here. The other real concern I have is for Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win the second quarter considering both Roger Federer and Andy Murray are still lurking and playing well in that section.


Roger Federer - 8.5 games v Teymuraz Gabashvili: I don't exactly know how Teymuraz Gabashvili came out of his match with the victory over Fernando Verdasco as he had been outplayed in sets two and three and looked there for the taking.

A lot of that is down to the up and down nature of Verdasco, but I don't think he will be getting as much joy out of Roger Federer who has come through the first two Rounds with a minimum of fuss.

The new racquet and new coach seems to be working well to Federer's liking although I think that there will be bigger tests ahead for him. However, this match looks like one that should be dominated by the former World Number 1 and I do think Federer is going to book his place in the Fourth Round with little concerns on the way.

If Federer can get off to the fast start that he made in the Second Round, I think he will prove too strong and come through 61, 64, 63.


Andy Murray win 3-1 v Feliciano Lopez: Andy Murray has shown no sign of the back problems that required surgery at the end of 2013, but this is by far the toughest test he will have faced at the Australian Open after two routine wins.

He has won all 7 previous meetings against Feliciano Lopez although this will be the first time they have played one another in eighteen months. That was a titanic battle at the US Open that was decided in four sets in favour of Murray, although Lopez gave him all he could handle on that occasion and it was a very, very close match.

Prior to that, Murray had won 9 sets in a row against Lopez, but I do think the Spaniard can ask some awkward questions of the Brit in this one and that is why I fancy him to snatch a set in this match.

The serve gives Lopez a decent platform to work on and he can string together enough decent returns to force a break, but over a three hour contest I would have to back Murray to come through.

It will be tight I'm sure, but Murray should have enough to come through in four sets.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 6.5 games v Gilles Simon: The battle of these two compatriots does look like leaning towards the former Australian Open Finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga if only for the fact that Gilles Simon has had to come through two long five set matches.

It was said that Simon was barely walking ahead of this tournament, but he has shown the fight and determination which made him a top ten player and I can only respect that.

However, back to back five set matches can take it out of any player and we saw Andy Murray crush Simon in similar circumstances twelve months ago at the same event. Tsonga also has a big enough game to keep the pressure on Simon and really make him work for his points.

The conditions may be cooler with this set as one of the evening matches, but Tsonga should prove too good and come through 63, 63, 64.


Rafael Nadal - 6.5 games v Gael Monfils: I liked the way Gael Monfils approached his matches in Doha recently, but that didn't prove to be enough against Rafael Nadal and I think this is a difficult match for the Frenchman to get through.

The problem for Monfils is that he can struggle to find the right balance between attack and defence and that should give Nadal the chance to dictate the rallies and really drain the Monfils energy through this match.

A lot of the times they have met one another, I feel the Monfils mindset has contributed to him going down with heavy set losses and I think Nadal is good enough to force a couple of breaks of serve in the less competitive sets they compete. There will be a close set or two as well when Monfils gets hot, but Nadal should come through 62, 75, 64.


Dominika Cibulkova - 3.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: A battling display from Carla Suarez Navarro saw her come through her Second Round match, but she is going to have another tough match in the Third Round against Dominika Cibulkova.

The diminutive Cibulkova has a big game that can see her get on the front foot and dominate rallies, but this will be much more difficult than her Second Round waltz although I do think the edge falls towards the Slovakian.

Cibulkova is actually Ranked lower than Suarez Navarro in the World Rankings, but I think she will have the extra fitness and conditioning to come through with the heavier groundstrokes coming off her side of the court.

Don't be surprised to see plenty of breaks of serve in this one too, but I like Cibulkova to come through 64, 64.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 8.5 Games @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Andy Murray Win 3-1 @ 3.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 6.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 6.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 10-11, - 3.3 Units (40 Units Staked, - 8.25% Yield)