Australian Open Day 9 Picks 2014 (January 21st)

The last couple of days at Melbourne Park have seen the draw in the women's tournament blown wide open with the exits of Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova in the Fourth Round on back to back days. These two were in the top three when it came to the favourites to win the first Grand Slam title of the season and the likes of Na Li, Ana Ivanovic and Victoria Azarenka will not have too many better opportunities to add to their tally of major wins.

It has also given players like Simona Halep and Agnieszka Radwanska a chance to grab a maiden Slam win, especially with the former of those players making huge leaps in terms of her results in 2013.

I feel comfortable with my pick of Azarenka to win the title for a third straight year, although the Quarter Final with Radwanska will be a tough one. However, she does look the mentally strongest player left in the draw, has had decent results against the players she could potentially meet and has generally looked the best player on the Tour when not talking about Serena Williams.


The men's draw hasn't had the same level of drama as the women's with the biggest casualty being Juan Martin Del Potro in the Second Round. He is the only member of the top eight seeds that will not be playing in the Quarter Finals here, but Grigor Dimitrov has made his breakthrough at the highest level, and I am expecting some great tennis matches to finish this tournament.

Roger Federer v Andy Murray is comfortably the best looking match of the Round, especially after seeing Federer really turn on the style in his win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the Fourth Round. There does seem to be a new confidence about Federer following the struggles of 2013, but Andy Murray has also been playing solid tennis and this has the hallmarks of another titanic battle between these two after the five set Semi Final they played last year.

Either way, the winner is likely to be opposed by Rafael Nadal in the Semi Final so the draw won't be getting easier and I think it would be Federer's finest moment in tennis (which might sound a big call with all the success he has had in the last eleven years) if he can beat Murray, Nadal and likely Novak Djokovic in back to back to back matches to win the title here.


It was another solid day for the picks with three winners compared with two losers and the last four days have really been very successful. I did lose one of my outright picks for the two week event when Tsonga was beaten in the Fourth Round, but picking Djokovic and Azarenka to win the men's and women's events respectively are both in solid positions.

I also picked Tomas Berdych to win the third quarter of the draw and he is a pretty strong favourite to knock off David Ferrer in the Quarter Final. However, Ferrer can be stubborn against Berdych and I don't think it will be as straight-forward as their form may initially suggest.


Tomas Berdych-David Ferrer Tie Break- No: If there is one thing that any regular reader of my posts will attest to, it is that I am not a big fan of 'prop' markets simply because I don't think it is possible to do enough research to guide you towards a pick.

Therefore most of my tennis picks are on the game handicap, set handicap, set or match markets, but I am making an exception for this match. There are a few times in the season that the 'most aces' and 'tie break' markets look slightly out of sync and I think this could be one of those times.

I have already backed Tomas Berdych to come through this quarter of the draw and I still think he looks in the better form of the two players and should prove a little too much for David Ferrer to handle.

I am leaving that pick running, but I have seen Sky Bet offer 3.25 that there is NO tie break in this Quarter Final- these two have met 12 times and have played 30 sets, yet none of those have gone to a tie break in all that time.

5 of those 30 sets have gone to 5-5 so there is every chance that a couple more holds will get to the tie break, but I can make a case for why these two haven't actually managed to get to a breaker in the past. David Ferrer is a good returner that can really put some pressure on when his game is on form, but his serve is very vulnerable too and that is where Berdych can have success prior to a breaker.

Having a small interest on this being another match where late breaks of serve and chances to break in the set looks the call and I say back no tie breakers in this one.


Stanislas Wawrinka + 2.5 sets v Novak Djokovic: Ever since losing the Final at the US Open, Novak Djokovic has been the form player on the ATP Tour with tournament wins in Beijing, Shanghai, Paris and London, but I still think this is a disrespectful mark to Stanislas Wawrinka coming off a career year in 2013.

Yes, I do think Novak Djokovic is going to win the tournament here at Melbourne Park, but Wawrinka has all the tools to force the World Number 2 dig deep within himself to secure his place in the Semi Final. Wawrinka has an under-rated serve, and hits heavy shots off both wings, while he is actually a decent return of serve too which means he should be able to have some success against Djokovic through this match.

It has shown over the last twelve months that the belief is certainly with Wawrinka, who pushed Djokovic to five sets in losing efforts at the Australian Open and the US Open and I think the quotes of Djokovic winning this in straight sets at odds on are wide of the mark.

I expect Djokovic to perhaps be a little too tough when it comes down to it, but this has all the hallmarks of four or five sets again. I think the Swiss man will attack the Djokovic serve and I think he will be able to create chances, while Wawrinka has had a decent path through the draw and can't have any complaints about his physical shape with a couple of byes over the last nine days.

All in all, I am surprised that Wawrinka is being offered with such a head-start.


Na Li - 4.5 games v Flavia Pennetta: At first glance, this may be too many games for Na Li to be giving up in the Quarter Final against Flavia Pennetta, but I think the highest remaining seed in the top half of the draw has the power to come through with a fairly routine win.

Na Li has a decent serve that should give her the chance to get on the front foot, despite Pennetta being a pretty good returner. If Li serves well though, I would expect her to hold on to serve more often than losing it and that should also give her the foundation to put the attack on to the Pennetta serve.

As good as Pennetta has played over the last few months since returning from injury, she has generally found herself under the cosh when playing the best players on the WTA and Li is definitely part of that category. She can put Pennetta under pressure through this match and I think that will lead to Li coming through with a 64, 63 win and a place in the Semi Final.


Eugenie Bouchard + 3.5 games v Ana Ivanovic: I wasn't sure how Eugenie Bouchard would react in the Fourth Round against a home hope, but her recovery after going a set down against Casey Dellacqua shows she has the mentality to go even further in the tournament.

It isn't an easy draw against Ana Ivanovic who knocked out the favourite Serena Williams, but that also means a lot of attention has been heaped on the Serb over the last couple of days and it will be interesting to see how she has coped. Ivanovic has plenty of experience so it isn't the same as the Sergiy Stakhovsky effect when he knocked out Roger Federer at Wimbledon, but I do wonder how her preparation for this match has been affected.

As good as Ivanovic has played, Bouchard has the power to compete and has already beaten the former World Number 1 at a Grand Slam event with her win over her at Wimbledon last year.

It was the first serve that did all the damage in that match and Bouchard could cause problems if she is serving well in this one too. There is definitely enough in the young player's game to think she can win a set at least, if not the match outright, and that should make this number of games very competitive and likely worth quite a lot by the end of the contest.

MY PICKS: Tomas Berdcyh-David Ferrer Tie Break- No @ 3.25 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Stanislas Wawrinka + 2.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Na Li - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Eugenie Bouchard + 3.5 Games @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 22-15, + 12.36 Units (69 Units Staked, + 17.91% Yield)