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Sunday 5 January 2014

Tennis Outright Picks 2014 (January 5-12)

It wasn't the best start to the season for the picks after at least three players missed their chance to earn the cover of the spread when serving for the match. That was only compounded by Roger Federer failing to win the Final at Brisbane in a three set loss to local favourite Lleyton Hewitt.

This will we have three events taking place across the two Tours, but remember the Australian Open begins next week so there could be some strange results as players perhaps focus ahead to that tournament. It also makes the favourites for the tournaments all look vulnerable as they may just want to get a couple of matches under their belt ahead of the Grand Slam.

With that in mind, I have only made the one outright pick this week from the ATP tournament in Auckland and will make picks from the matches when, and only if, there are some I like as the week goes forward.

ATP Auckland
The tournament prior to the Australian Open has been dominated by the Number 1 seed, David Ferrer, who is looking to pick up the title for a fourth year in a row. The layers are confident in his chances to do that and the draw hasn't been a bad one for the Spaniard, but I have a few doubts about Ferrer this year and I have a feeling he will be taking a step back.

The problem for Ferrer is that he looks like his grinding style of play is finally catching up with him and being forced to work so hard to hold on to serve is a tough mental game to do time after time.

Ferrer can't complain about the draw with the seeded players in his section all having doubts surrounding their chances to win through to the Final. Robin Haase is extremely inconsistent, Kevin Anderson was forced out of Brisbane with a virus and could be under-cooked, while Gael Monfils reached the Final in Doha last week and will have to put a lot of travelling in his legs to play in New Zealand, while already perhaps looking ahead to the Australian Open.

So while Ferrer is the most likely player to come out of the top half of the draw, especially with his record on these courts, I can't back him with confidence after his own defeat to Daniel Brands last week in Doha. He looks too short in the market and I will instead look at the bottom half of the draw for a potential winner.

To that end, I am going to have a small interest in Philipp Kohlschreiber to reach the Final, at the least, for the second year in succession. The German reached the Semi Final in 2012 and is also a former winner of the event in 2008 and he could build up some momentum through the draw this week.

Kohlschreiber can't be disappointed with the opening two matches he is likely to face here in Auckland, while he is seeded to meet John Isner in the Quarter Final. However, Kohlschreiber has beaten Isner in each of the last two matches they have played, while the big American was also forced out of the Hopman Cup with an ankle injury and may not be focused here with the Australian Open in mind.

A potential Semi Final against either Benoit Paire or Tommy Haas is a tough match for Kohlschreiber, especially the former of those players, but he could have enough confidence at this stage to get back to the Final. Kohlschreiber has lost his last 4 matches against his likely opponent in any Final, David Ferrer, but I still think an each-way interest on him is worth it at the 10.00 being offered by Ladbrokes.

That price has actually come in since a popular website in the United Kingdom also picked Kohlschreiber in Auckland this week, but it is still decent enough to have an interest.

MY PICKS: Philipp Kohlschreiber @ 10.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit E/W)

Weekly Picks: 8-9, - 1.47 Units (31 Units Staked, - 4.74% Yield)
Outright Picks: 0-2, - 3 Units (3 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Season 2014: - 4.47 Units (34 Units Staked, - 13.15% Yield)

Season 2013+ 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012+ 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011+ 82.02 Units

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