Weekend Football Picks 2014 (January 18-20)

I think there were more than a few happy people last weekend as all the favourites seemingly obliged by winning their games, but I can't say it has been a good month for my picks. Some of those were unfortunate, some had controversy attached and some picks just have plain stunk this month which is threatening to be the first with a losing effort since August.

It can be 'easy' to try and chase those losses, but that would be foolish and very likely to lead to more problems and I think I am already accepting it will be a losing month, but one where I would like to restrict the losses.


With the top seven all winning in the Premier League last weekend, the layers have talked about it being the worst day for bookmakers ever... It also led to a twitter overload of people boasting about their wins, but I am guessing the quietness from these same people over the last several months means either they are the luckiest people in the world by only making their selections on the one weekend when everything went right for the favourites, or they've had a shocking season for the most part and haven't had anything to gloat about previously.


The Premier League is certainly seeing a lot more consistency than it was at the beginning of the season and we have begun to see the leading contenders string together winning runs which makes it imperative for the chasing pack behind the top three to keep winning too. The battle for the top four is almost becoming a battle for one place with Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea all beginning to exert their muscles and it will be interesting to see if that changes after this weekend with Manchester United travelling to Stamford Bridge to take on Chelsea.

While that is happening at the top of the table, the bottom of the table is also tightening up with only 6 points separating Hull City in 10th place and Crystal Palace in 20th and that looks like another fascinating race that could very easily go into the final weekend of the season. Things will begin to clear up in the next six weeks, but it does make the Premier League a very interesting watch for the neutrals.


Arsenal v Fulham Pick: This is the kind of game that has stumped Arsenal the last couple of years and kept them out of a real Premier League title race, but there seems to be more confidence and belief in the squad this year.

Arsenal will create chances, especially against a Fulham team that has conceded a lot of goals in recent Premier League games and one that has conceded threes and fours against the likes of West Ham United, Everton and Liverpool, while Hull City saw a complete collapse from the lilywhites in a game at the KC Stadium.

The draws the last couple of seasons have to be a concern for the Arsenal fans, but this team looks too good and doesn't concede a lot of goals at the Emirates Stadium. In fact, they have only conceded 1 goal in their last 8 games in front of their own fans and the 2-0 scoreline has been highly familiar to the fans that love singing '1-0 to the Arsenal'.

Add to this the fact that Fulham have played 5 teams away from home in the top half of the table and only scored 1 goal and there is every reason to think Arsenal can win another game to nil which is offered at odds against by Bet Victor.


Manchester City v Cardiff City Pick: This has been the season when Manchester City have routinely crushed teams at the Etihad Stadium and they should be able to deal with Cardiff City without too many concerns, especially with Sergio Aguero back in the line up.

The loss of Samir Nasri is disappointing for the home team, but they have plenty of other attacking players that can make up for the absence of the Frenchman, and Manuel Pellegrini also has the benefit of not having to rest players for the League Cup Semi Final at West Ham United after his side won the first leg 6-0.

It is interesting to note that Hull City and Crystal Palace, the two other promoted teams from last season, both had close losses here at the Etihad Stadium so Cardiff may feel they can frustrate the home side in this one.

Cardiff did that to Arsenal in a recent visit to the Emirates Stadium, but Chelsea beat them 4-1 and Liverpool were 3-0 up by half time and could have scored as many as they wanted in that time. If the Cardiff that defended in the latter two games turns up, Manchester City could have as many goals as they like in this one and I think they can cover the Asian Handicap in this game.


Norwich City v Hull City Pick: This could be a crucial game when it comes down the points that separate those sides that are relegated and those that survive in the top flight at the end of the season and I expect both managers will be urging their team to get forward and earn the three points.

Norwich City have failed to win any of their last 4 home games in all competitions since a 1-0 success against Crystal Palace at the end of November and the pressure on Chris Hughton remains considering the Canaries have played Swansea and Fulham (twice) in that time and perhaps the fans would have expected better results in that time.

On paper, they would be expecting the three points in this one too, although I would temper expectations by stating Hull City's away record looks worse than it probably is because of the places they have played so far. In the remaining months of the season, they will have more winnable games on their travels and I think Hull will improve that aspect of their game.

Hull have made things awkward for Arsenal and Liverpool in recent away games, while also earning results at Swansea and West Brom so picking something up from Carrow Road is not beyond them.

With both teams likely to get forward, I think this could be a game that surprises the layers and I would not be surprised if both teams score. Norwich have been scoring and creating chances in recent home games, while Hull have scored in away games at all the clubs they have faced below the top seven so the odds against quote on both teams scoring looks a touch out of line.


West Ham United v Newcastle United Pick: This looks to be an important fixture for both clubs and one that can be fully concentrated on with no more Cup games to really concern the managers for the rest of the season. Sam Allardyce may have to send a team out to complete what looks like a routine victory for Manchester City in the League Cup Semi Final on Tuesday, but I can see the manager picking a completely fringe team for that game.

There is no doubt that this match means a lot more to West Ham United as they look to build on the impressive win at Cardiff City last weekend, while the return of Andy Carroll gives them more of a threat up front which has been missing for much of the season.

West Ham will be looking to take advantage of the poor run of form that Newcastle United find themselves in, although a performance like the one in the home loss to Manchester City will surely reward the Magpies with more wins than losses over the remainder of the season.

Newcastle have been a very inconsistent side away from home all season, but they had been winning plenty of games before the loss at West Brom which makes them a dangerous side here. I am finding it hard to separate them, but I do think there will be chances for both teams in the game and the weather looks conducive to playing good football and I can see at least three goals being scored in this one.


Swansea v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: It might not be the 'tactical' approach that managers tend to use, but there is no doubt that Tim Sherwood has inspired the players since taking over from Andre Villas-Boas and is allowing Tottenham Hotspur to express themselves in a positive manner. That has given Spurs the impetus to win games and their form in the Premier League has certainly improved while goals are coming more frequently.

That has especially been the case away from White Hart Lane where Spurs have won 4 straight games in the Premier League despite conceding at least one goal in each of those games. The players look happier with the current system used and Tottenham will certainly feel they have enough goals to win this game and earn a vital three points in their bid to get into the top four.

It won't be easy at Swansea, but there is no doubt that the home side are not playing with a lot of confidence at the moment and have certainly looked vulnerable. They have conceded 5 goals in their last 2 games here against teams from the top five, while Swansea have lost 4 of their 5 home games against teams currently in the top seven of the table.

However, Swansea have scored in every one of those games while they have only failed to score in one home game in the Premier League so far this season. I still think Tottenham Hotspur hold the edge in this game, but it makes more sense backing them to win a game in which both teams score as that has been a common theme in their last 4 away games in the Premier League. As mentioned, Swansea lost in that situation to Manchester United, Arsenal, Manchester City and Everton so the 4.33 on offer that Spurs can do the same is hard to ignore.


Chelsea v Manchester United Pick: This is going to be the game of the weekend as there is pressure on both teams to grab the three points to keep up with the goals they have set for themselves at the start of the season.

Jose Mourinho may say that he never wanted the job at Old Trafford, but I think most people accept that he did want to be interviewed at the very least and that it bothered him that Manchester United chose David Moyes without that. That is going to inspire him in this game and I think he will want his Chelsea side to come out and make a real statement against a United team that will be missing Wayne Rooney and Robin Van Persie.

It will be tough for United without their two forwards as they have looked lacklustre and devoid of ideas at times, but they have found success at Stamford Bridge in recent visits by taking advantage of the defensive vulnerabilities that Chelsea do have in their team.

The problem for United is the improved confidence in the home team and the attacking talent that the likes of Eden Hazard and Oscar offer Chelsea when they do have the ball. It will be hard for United to dictate things from the middle of the park and that is where Chelsea's strength was telling in games between the sides at the end of last season.

I don't expect Jose Mourinho to take his foot off the peddle in this one either if Chelsea get on top as he is going to want to prove a point to the hierarchy at Old Trafford. I do think Manchester United will get chances to score so there is every chance this game is going to see at least 3 goals scored, especially if Chelsea get on the front foot too. The Chelsea games against Manchester City and Liverpool both had at least 3 goals scored and I think the chances will come for this one to go the same way at odds against.

MY PICKS: Arsenal Win to Nil @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.88 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Norwich City-Hull City Both Teams to Score @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
West Ham United-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 William Hill (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Tottenham Hotspur to Win @ 4.33 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Chelsea-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)

January Update: 8-14, - 8.35 Units (36 Units Staked, - 23.19% Yield)

December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 82-79-3, + 15.89 Units (266 Units Staked, + 5.97% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)