We are down to the final eight teams as the Super Bowl comes steaming up and I don't think we could have asked for too many better teams than the ones we have left.
Without a doubt, the NFC looks the stronger Conference of the two and I think the winner of the Super Bowl will come out of that side, although I am sure Peyton Manning and thousands of Denver Broncos fans will feel they can have a big say going forward.
The Broncos do have home field advantage through the remaining games as long as they keep winning, but I just feel the AFC teams have more vulnerable spots in their teams than the ones in the NFC and I would expect the latter Conference to send out the favourite for the big game. That might change with the way teams get through to the Super Bowl, but right now I would take Seattle or San Francisco over Denver.
The Wild Card Round proved a mixed bag for my picks as they went 2-2, but mainly thanks to not getting the hook for the Green Bay Packers game which ended on the key number 3. I had picked them with a 2.5 point start, but that would have been enough if Micah Hyde could have picked off Colin Kaepernick in the final moments of that game which would have given the Packers the ball on the San Francisco 35.
Still, going 2-2 is not a bad thing and means the season results remain very strong, and that is important going forward. Hopefully the Divisional Round will prove to be a winning week as the exciting games unfold on the field.
New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: It seems that someone has flipped the switch on the 'experts' in the last week as the New Orleans Saints have gone from a team that cannot win a road game to one that has a real chance to win in Seattle.
The talking heads on all the channels have picked up a lot of confidence in the Saints thanks to their last second win over the Philadelphia Eagles last weekend, but someone may need to let them know that this is arguably the hardest venue to play Football.
Seattle's home crowd is loud and boisterous and have disrupted plenty of Offenses over the years, including the New Orleans Saints one in the 2010 Play Offs when the Seahawks were set as almost double digit home underdogs.
The Saints will look to establish the same kind of game plan as last week and their hopes will almost solely rest on whether they can get an effective ground game established yet again. Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles did well against the Philadelphia Defense, but Seattle's is a different prospect altogether and have been particularly stout over their last three games.
If New Orleans can't really run the ball, the passing game could be heavily disrupted by one of the most vicious pass rushes in the NFL which is backed up by a Secondary that can physically out muscle plenty of Receivers. That could lead to the errors that cost the Saints a real chance of winning in Week 13 and Drew Brees isn't as efficient with looking after the ball on the road as he is in the Super Dome.
New Orleans will want to establish their ground game, but that is also the area where Seattle will look to show off their dominance. It was in the 2010 Play Offs that Marshawn Lynch ran all over the Saints, including a couple of real memorable runs, and Seattle will look to get him going. Lynch didn't have a huge game in the Week 13 clash between these teams, but he didn't need to, although I expect Seattle to want to feed 'Beast Mode' a little more in this one.
Getting Lynch going will only open the passing lanes for Russell Wilson who could have his wild card in Percy Harvin on the field. With Kenny Vaccaro and Jabari Greer out of the New Orleans Defense, Wilson should be able to hit his Receivers downfield, especially if the Offensive Line controls the line of scrimmage as they did in the first game. Keeping Rob Ryan's Defense clear of Russell Wilson will only aid Seattle that much more in this game to beat the Saints for the second time this season.
There are a couple of trends that will really favour the Saints to at least stay within the number in this one which do concern me. However, I do like the trend that teams coming back from a losing season are just 3-11 against the spread in this round when they are coming off a win as a underdog.
That is backed by the fact that teams who won 11 games last season and have a week to prepare for a game are 24-13-1 against the spread in this Round.
Being a Number 1 seed in either Conference hasn't meant a guaranteed place in the Super Bowl, but the NFC Number 1 seed is 22-8-1 against the spread when favoured by 6 points or more in this Round.
Seattle look like the team that is going to have more success Offensively, especially when it comes to sustaining that Offense, and I think their Defense makes a couple of big plays to help the Seahawks win this and cover the spread.
Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots Pick: It is going to be cold and rainy in New England for this second of the Divisional Round Play Off games and it will be interesting to see how the Indianapolis Colts deal with that as a team that plays indoors.
Both teams should have some success running the ball in this game, although New England certainly have the more effective ground game. The Patriots have leaned on that in the wake of injuries to Rob Gronkowski and the release of Wes Welker, but the Offensive Line has helped opening up the running lanes.
It is actually an area that Indianapolis have struggled to contain and may also negate their pass rush just enough to allow Tom Brady to hurt them through the air. The Colts Secondary has actually played pretty well, but that is mainly down to the pass rush that they have and it might not be the case if New England establish their running game early.
Indianapolis would do well to employ Donald Brown in a similar manner and give him the majority of the carries in this one rather than Trent Richardson, especially as Brown is capable of breaking the big run. Running the ball has been an issue for the Colts, but the Patriots have missed Vince Wilfork in the middle of their Defensive Line and there should be some running lanes to get that part of the game established.
Like the Patriots, that will give their best player, Andrew Luck, the chance to make plays from manageable down and distance, although I have a feeling that Bill Belichick will game plan to take away TY Hilton in the passing game and force the Quarter Back to look elsewhere. That does mean Coby Fleener and Da'Rick Rogers have to show they are capable of hauling passes in under pressure, but they should have space as the speedster Hilton is likely to be double teamed with a Safety along with Aqib Talib.
Luck has that special factor about him though, something that makes him a very solid underdog to back, especially in the bigger games. The Quarter Back has improved to 6-1 against the spread when playing teams that have won more than two-thirds of their games and New England will fall into that category.
The Patriots have also struggled in the Play Offs over the last few years and they are just 2-10 against the spread in their last 12 Play Off games. Tom Brady has also lost his last 6 games against the spread when playing an opponent that has won back to back games when New England are coming off a break.
One major trend going against the Colts is the record of teams that won as a home underdog in the Wild Card Round- that makes sense considering the effort those teams have to make to come through the Wild Card Play Off game, although I am giving it a little less attention as the Colts moved from favourite to underdog through the week before the game against Kansas City.
Getting over the Touchdown number of 7 could be critical in this game and I am backing the Indianapolis Colts to make a game of this one.
San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers Pick: This has been set as a pick 'em contest and I think it is one of the tougher games of the week to predict. The Carolina Panthers were the home underdogs to start the week, but the big money has come in for them with the trend that a home underdog has never lost in the Divisional Round of the Play Offs since 1990 (2-0), but now they are the slight favourites going into the game.
Both teams are going to play this game in a very similar way- they will both look to pound the ball on the ground and try to negate the pass rush that both Defenses can generate and then look to make the big play downfield.
Neither Secondary is one that can completely shut down the Receivers, especially if the Quarter Back gets time to make those throws and I do like the San Francisco 49ers Receiving corps to win their battles in this game.
The injury to Vernon Davis and the absence of Michael Crabtree hurt Colin Kaepernick in the first game between the two and I think one of those Receivers, or Anquan Boldin, could make the big plays that separates the two teams.
Cam Newton is also playing his first game in the post-season and Quarter Backs are just 11-22 straight up and the 49ers have the experience of getting to the Super Bowl just last year so I expect them to make sure the former Heisman Trophy winner is not comfortable in this one.
Teams with a losing record from last season are also 4-24 straight up in this Round and I will back the 49ers to win a close one on the road.
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos Pick: This is a fascinating game that has seen the sharps get all over the San Diego spread from the beginning of the week to the point that it has come down almost a field goal in terms of points ahead of this game.
The way San Diego played against Denver this season suggests they can certainly make this a competitive and close battle, but they have to stay in the game with long drives and keeping Peyton Manning on the sidelines for as long as possible.
That will mean the Chargers can stick to their game plan and not get into a shoot-out with the Broncos, but it would become a real problem if they fall behind by a couple of scores early in the game and the pressure is ramped up on them.
San Diego have been playing with a lot of confidence and it will be interesting to see if reality will eventually strike them as they get closer and closer to perhaps reaching the Super Bowl. The other problem for them is finding something different to show Peyton Manning who would have been studying the game tape from the last two games for the who week as the Denver Broncos rested up in anticipation for this game.
Denver also have a couple of trends on their side for this game- the top seed in the AFC is 7-2 against the spread in this Round when playing a team that is coming off a win in the Wild Card Round where they covered the spread by 17 points.
The Broncos will also look to extend the trend that teams who won at least 11 games last season are 25-14-1 against the spread in this Round with a week off to prepare. That is also backed up by teams that had a losing record last season, but are coming off an upset win in the Wild Card Round are just 3-12 against the spread in this Round.
I am a little concerned by Peyton Manning's poor record as a home favourite against San Diego, as well as Philip Rivers being 4-1 against the spread as a Play Off underdog, but I think Denver set up the big game with New England next week.
MY PICKS: Seattle Seahawks - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts + 7.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Fred (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 8 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
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