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Friday 3 January 2014

Tennis Picks 2014 (January 3rd)

The tournaments this week will continue on Friday and I have to say I was a touch disappointed with the picks on Thursday- it looked like being the chance of a decent week but both Dustin Brown and Florian Mayer had the chance to serve for the match, and the cover for the picks, but failed to do so and missed out.

Fortunately, Gael Monfils completely outclassed Daniel Brands to at least bring that pick in, although it does mean the profit for the week has gone to this point.

We will be playing Quarter Finals and Semi Finals from the tournaments on Friday and we are now a week away from the draw for the first Grand Slam of the season at the Australian Open. The big story of the day is likely to come from the Serena Williams-Maria Sharapova Semi Final in Brisbane, the first time they have met since their spat at Wimbledon last year.

It is clear that there are some wounds between two players that have never really liked one another, but that should produce a decent match, although Sharapova would be the first to tell you that she has to start winning some matches if this is to be considered a rivalry in the traditional sense.


Jeremy Chardy - 2.5 games v Samuel Groth: Samuel Groth took advantage of Kevin Anderson pulling out of the event to beat a Lucky Loser and earn his place in this Quarter Final in front of his home fans, but I believe the run comes to an end.

Groth spends the majority of his time on the Challenger circuit and while he has a big serve that will cause problems on the faster circuits, he can be erratic off the ground and I can see why he may have struggled to get further up the Rankings and playing at a higher level on a consistent basis.

That may be the difference between himself and Jeremy Chardy who played well at Melbourne Park last year and has won a couple of matches already here in Brisbane.

The Frenchman will look to work behind his own serve and can play some very good tennis, although he is another that may struggle for consistency. However, his level of game should be too good for Groth, although the Australian's serve is likely to force at least one tie-break in a 76, 64 win for Chardy.


Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: Victoria Azarenka had a poor end to the 2013 season which included an early exit at the WTA Championships in Istanbul, but she has made a decent start to the last couple of Tours which has culminated in winning the Australian Open.

Azarenka has won a couple of matches here in Brisbane after reaching the Semi Final a year ago, but I feel she can go at least one step further this year. I don't want to under-estimate Jelena Jankovic who had a resurgence in form last year to move back into the top ten in the World Rankings.

Jankovic was one of the players that beat Azarenka in the WTA Championships Group Stage and also snapped a 4 match losing run against her with that win.

Both women came through three set matches in the Quarter Finals, but Azarenka played in the 'cooler' night conditions and may be in a better place physically, although she hasn't played during the day just yet. If Azarenka can handle the change in conditions, I expect her to come through a tight match with a 64, 64 win.


Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Maria Sharapova: As I mentioned earlier, there is no love lost between these two leading contenders on the WTA Tour and I am backing Serena Williams to come through with a comfortable win against an opponent that missed the last four months on the Tour last season.

It was the pain in the shoulder that forced Sharapova to miss most of the Tour after being surprised in the Second Round at Wimbledon and that meant she was serving with pain. In her Quarter Final win over Kaia Kanepi, Sharapova struggled with her serve to open the match and those issues will be severely punished by someone as good as Williams.

There is no doubt that this is the one opponent that will usually bring the best out of Williams with their off-court issues dominating the headlines. At the moment, Sharapova looks too undercooked to reverse the trend of losing 13 matches in a row in which she has won just 3 sets, and I like Serena to come through with a 62, 64 win.


Benoit Paire - 2.5 games v Marcel Granollers: One of the more polarising up and coming players on the Tour last season was Benoit Paire who seemed to be over-rated by many off the back off a strong run at the Rome Masters during the clay court season.

There is a lot to like about the Paire game, but he struggled to reach those same heights during the rest of the season although he did reach the Semi Final in Chennai last year and has the chance to do the same again to open the 2014 season.

Paire has a decent serve, looks fairly comfortable on the ground and I think he will move up from his current position of 26 in the World Rankings. With that in mind, I expect him to be a little too good for the solid Spaniard Marcel Granollers who is better known for his exploits on the Doubles Tour rather than the Singles.

Granollers did have a decent season last year as a Singles player, but I think he has taken advantage of an extremely kind draw here in Chennai to reach the Quarter Finals and that will come to an end here. The Spaniard has a game that does transfer onto the hard courts effectively, but I still think Paire comes through 64, 64.


Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 games v Yuki Bhambri: It took a Fabio Fognini retirement in the second set to save my pick against Yuki Bhambri yesterday, but I think Vasek Pospisil has the big game to see off the young Indian player in this Quarter Final.

Pospisil improved his position in the World Rankings following the Canadian Masters last summer and that seems to have given him a boost in confidence- little things like that can turn a player loose and playing with that confidence could see him reach the Semi Final here.

He will have the chance to win a few cheap points on serve and the pressure that shot can create on his opponent may see someone like Bhambri snap a couple of times in the match. It can wear down on a player mentally if they are not getting too many chances to break serve and knowing they need to keep holding serve makes them perhaps push a little too hard with nervous energy flowing through them.

That might be the fate for Bhambri in what could ultimately be a 64, 64 loss.


Gael Monfils - 3.5 games v Florian Mayer: Has Gael Monfils finally turned a corner as a professional tennis player and is now ready to challenge the best players on the Tour on a regular basis? It is hard to fully trust him, but if he keeps up the form displayed in Doha, he will be a dangerous player throughout 2014.

Monfils crushed Daniel Brands in the Quarter Final, a player that had beaten him three times in a row in 2013, which follows an impressive win over Richard Gasquet. Now he has a strong chance of reaching the Final here as he faces Florian Mayer, a player he has beaten in all 4 previous matches.

We know Mayer is an unpredictable player that can be hard to get a read on, but Monfils has the athleticism to deal with the short drop shots that the German tends to use and also has a big serve to keep Mayer on his toes.

I do think Monfils will create chances to break the Mayer serve and, as long as he serves well, the Frenchman may just reach the Final with a 64, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Jeremy Chardy - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Vasek Pospisil - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-6, - 0.97 Units (19 Units Staked, - 5.10% Yield)

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