Australian Open Day 2 Picks 2014 (January 14th)

I've only been able to catch the highlights of the first day at the Australian Open, but I did notice that it was the women's draw that saw the majority of the surprises with three of the leading seeds all going on before the tournament has really got off the ground.

There were only three or four retirements from what I have seen from the results, but it was just a little weird to see two of those coming out of the four picks I made on Day 1. To be perfectly honest, it looked like it would have been a split with one likely to win (Stanislas Wawrinka pick) and one looking a loser (Tommy Haas) so I won't be concerning myself too much about that.

It felt a lot better seeing the other two picks both finding their way into the winner's enclosure, but we are at an extremely early stage of this two week tournament and I will be hoping to kick on from here with more picks on Day 2.


Of course, you can still see the outright picks I have made on the tournament on this link.


Lleyton Hewitt win 3-1 v Andreas Seppi: There is a lot of positives around Lleyton Hewitt after his title win in Brisbane where he beat Roger Federer in the Final, but I can't help think that the layers have over-estimated the veteran's chances of making this a straight-forward First Round win.

It seems to be the case that Andreas Seppi is seen as a simple opponent that will be comfortably seen off, but the Italian can make this a very awkward encounter for the home favourite.

Seppi's serve is the not the best, but Hewitt has been erratic with his own form in the twilight of his career and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see the older man drop a set in this one, even in a winning effort.

Confidence is high in the Hewitt camp that a strong Slam is in prospect for their man, but he is rarely someone that blows opponents away these days and I can see the first two sets being split before the home crowd help Hewitt rally for the win.


Andy Murray - 9.5 games v Go Soeda: The back surgery seems to have been successful, but Andy Murray and his supporters are not expecting a strong tournament, meaning they are not expecting the two-time Grand Slam winner to really have a chance to win this Australian Open.

Murray has enjoyed considerable success at Melbourne Park, but his real expectation is to come through this year without any issues with the back and put together a real assault on the later Slams to be played.

Even with that in mind, this should be the perfect First Round opponent for Murray to get his current event underway and I expect he will see off Go Soeda without too many scares.

Whenever I have seen Soeda play, especially against the better players on Tour, he has looked vulnerable behind his serve and I think that will only be highlighted all the more by someone like Andy Murray who can return serve as effectively as anyone on the ATP Tour. Soeda may have more success against the Murray serve, which has always been a little loose when it comes to those opponents he should beat, but it is hard to imagine the Japanese player having a real impact in this match.

Murray has said he is feeling relaxed and ready to get the tournament underway and I will be looking for him to come through with little concern and a 63, 62, 63 route through to the next Round.


Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games v Bernard Tomic: This is the best match of the First Round, but one that I think will be a lesson for the young Australian Bernard Tomic as he takes on the World Number 1 Rafael Nadal in the first match in the evening session.

This won't be the first time that Tomic has taken on Nadal at the Australian Open, losing in straight sets in 2011 and while the youngster has improved since then, I would suggest that Nadal is playing at a higher level since that time too.

Tomic has lost to Roger Federer twice and Nadal in the last three appearances at this tournament so he is probably a little disappointed that he hasn't had an easier draw, and I think the problem will be is trying to match the Nadal intensity over the best of five sets situation. We have seen Tomic wilt in the past and I think he struggles to remain tuned if he falls behind by a set and a break which could help Nadal record a more comfortable win than the layers may think.

Nadal just doesn't take a point off and will compete for every moment he is out on the court- I expect that to be too much for Tomic in a 64, 62, 63 win for the second favourite to win the title.


Maria Sharapova - 6.5 games v Bethanie Mattek-Sands: The second of the matches to be played in the evening session is between Maria Sharapova and Bethanie Mattek-Sands and I think the World Number 3 will be able to get through in comfortable fashion.

The match up has been a good one for Sharapova who has won all 4 previous encounters with Mattek-Sands, losing just one set in that time and winning every set by at least a 63 margin.

Sharapova's shoulder issues at the end of last season are a concern, especially if she is struggling for consistency with that stroke, but I think they are more likely to be exposed later in the tournament than in this First Round match.

However, the last twelve months has seen Mattek-Sands really improve some of her results on the Tour including a win over Agnieszka Radwanska last week in Sydney. Mattek-Sands had to retire with a lower back issue at that tournament, but I think that was more a precaution than a serious problem and I think the American will pose some problems with her shot-making ability.

Unfortunately for Mattek-Sands, she is coming up against one of the serious contenders for any tournament she enters and I think Sharapova is going to prove to be too mentally strong and come through 63, 62 after a tough work out.

MY PICKS: Lleyton Hewitt win 3-1 @ 3.80 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Andy Murray - 9.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 7.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 2-0, + 2.92 Units (3 Units Staked, + 97.33% Yield)