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Monday 6 January 2014

Tennis Picks 2014 (January 7th)

We are only days away from the draw for the Australian Open, but the first priority is to get the tournaments that are taking place through the bulk of their matches before that draw is to be revealed.

It can be tough predicting the way matches will flow the week before a Grand Slam as some players will be concentrating on getting into the qualifiers for that tournament, while others will want to keep as much energy in reserve to have a shot at going deep in the first Grand Slam of the season. That can make this a minefield, but can also lead to surprise winners of the titles and you can see the one outright pick I have made this week by clicking here.


Most of the biggest names in the sport on both Tours are having a rest week to get themselves ready for next week, so it was a surprise to see Juan Martin Del Potro pick this week rather than the last one to make his first appearance in the 2014 season. Del Potro is a regular dark horse to win a Grand Slam tournament outside of the usual four suspects (although some would say that number has come down to three with the struggles of Roger Federer during 2013).

There will be plenty of tennis played in the first few days of the tournament as most will come to a close on Saturday rather than Sunday to ensure everyone is ready for the Monday start at Melbourne Park.


Roberto Bautista-Agut win 2-0 v Daniel Gimeno-Traver: Two Spaniards will be meeting in the First Round in Auckland thanks to Daniel Gimeno-Traver coming through the qualifiers here to make the main draw.

Both men lost their first match of 2014, although it is Roberto Bautista-Agut that is coming off a surprise loss in Chennai where he made the Semi Finals a year ago. It was a breakout year for Bautista-Agut on the main Tour last year which began in strong fashion at that same event in India, but it will be interesting to see how he backs that up.

I saw him play a few times last year and while there were times he looked good, there were plenty of other times when Bautista-Agut looked a little out of his depth at the highest level of professional tennis. However, his game does transfer well off the clay courts onto the hard courts and I think he can tough out a win over his compatriot.

His opponent, Gimeno-Traver, continues to produce his best performances on the clay courts and snapped a 7 match losing run with his two qualifier wins here. That will have given him confidence, but I always feel his serve offers opponents chances and that can be critical on the hard courts where you may not have too many opportunities to break back.


Benoit Paire win 2-0 v Michal Przysiezny: If ever you wanted to see the reason why no one can ever back Benoit Paire with any confidence, have a look at the way he played in his defeat to Marcel Granollers last week in Chennai.

Paire couldn't do anything right in the first set that he lost 26, but recovered to get into a position where he was leading 26, 63, 51... Somehow he failed to serve the match out on TWO occasions and then lost that match in a final set tie-break which highlights the inconsistencies the Frenchman still has in his game.

So why do I like him here? Well his opponent, Michal Przysiezny is a journeyman player who is coming in off his best year on the Tour when he reached his career high Ranking of 58, but I don't feel he has the same upside as Paire. While Przysiezny is a solid player, he doesn't have a spectacular game and that will offer Paire a bit more room to dictate rallies and get on the front foot.

Even with that in mind, this will be nothing more than a small interest because I like the match up, but just can't trust Paire until he makes a consistent step up in his play.


Daniel Brands win 2-0 v Bradley Klahn: Daniel Brands is an interesting tennis player because there are many times I have watched him and thought he was distinctly average, but the German has managed to do enough to come through his match. He comes over from Doha after winning a couple of matches to get through to the Quarter Final and I think he can overcome the qualifier from the United States.

Brands has a decent serve and can put together some very good rallies, while Bradley Klahn is still developing his game as he looks to make a step up to regular competition at this level. For the main part, Klahn has remained a player that makes his trade on the Challenger circuit, but he will be looking to kick on from there as the USA struggles to find players to fill the void left by Andy Roddick and a semi-retired Mardy Fish.

The fact that Klahn is left-handed will make this a little more awkward for Brands, who has a 5-7 record against such players, but I do feel the latter is in a better place at the moment when it comes to the careers of these two players. Klahn is still developing the experience of playing at the main Tour level and I think Brands can come through this one with a couple of tight sets under his belt.


Jarkko Nieminen win 2-0 v Blaz Kavcic: Jarkko Nieminen remains a competitive player on the Tour who acts almost like a gatekeeper for some of the players trying to break in as regular players on the ATP circuit.

Nieminen is rarely on the wrong end of a real surprise result and normally can deal with players that he is expected to beat and that will be the case in Sydney where the Finn reached the Quarter Finals last season.

It is strange in a way because there is nothing really intimidating about the Nieminen game, especially as his serve is one of the weaker aspects of his game. However, he can put pressure on opponents with some spectacular tennis off the ground and that could be tough for Blaz Kavcic to deal with.

Kavcic will have to work hard to hold on to his own service games and I would favour Nieminen to win the majority of the extended rallies. It is unlikely to be straight-forward thanks to Nieminen's own serve, but I expect to see him through to the Second Round after a 64, 63 win.


Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Kaia Kanepi: It was Angelique Kerber's disappointing loss to Kaia Kanepi at Wimbledon last year that saw the German receive some disgusting abuse on the social network sites directed towards her. No player deserves that, but it is the way things have gone with keyboard warriors believing the law won't be able to catch up with them if they do engage in such stupid acts.

It was a tough loss for Kerber who should have won in straight sets, but she at least recovered well enough mentally to beat the same opponent convincingly at the US Open last summer. I think Kerber will be able to back that win up here as Kanepi has struggled on the faster surfaces where her limited mobility can sometimes be exposed.

That will likely be the case against a player like Kerber that is pretty effective at retrieving the ball, while also having the ability to turn defence into attack very quickly. Kerber's serve can let her down at times and made the win over Dominika Cibulkova that much more difficult in the First Round, but it was a win which she can at least build some confidence going into the next three weeks.

Kanepi has had some big weeks on the hard courts, including winning in Brisbane in 2012 and beating Kerber here in 2009, but the German is a better player these days and I like her to back up her US Open win with a 75, 64 win here.


Caroline Wozniacki - 3.5 games v Lucie Safarova: There is no doubt that Lucie Safarova could beat Caroline Wozniacki if she comes out playing her high-risk tennis with minimum mistakes. In the past, Safarova has brought that game to the fore against the Dane and won matches against her, but Safarova is coming off a down year on the hard courts and also suffered a surprise loss in Auckland last week.

Caroline Wozniacki's personal life seems to be in the perfect place with the announcement that she is engaged to Rory McIlroy and there is a chance that a positive frame of mind can pay dividends for her on the Tour this season. We have seen other players on the WTA use these positives to start winning lots of matches and Wozniacki could potentially follow suit after falling off the standards set by the top players.

To be brutally honest, Wozniacki was never at the very top of the women's game despite holding the World Number 1 Ranking and I do think she may have settled her place in the top ten a little more true to her ability. There is room for improvement if confidence is up, while her style of play can still be effective against an all-out attacking player like Safarova who struggles with the consistency that the top, top players have.

Wozniacki will look to frustrate Safarova in this one and I do think she can win this match in straight sets as long as she can stay locked in early. That is when the Czech player will look to take control while her concentration levels are good, but if she begins making mistakes, the match could become 'easier' for Wozniacki as it goes on. If she can come through the tough first set, I like Wozniacki to win this 75, 63.

MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista-Agut win 2-0 @ 2.20 Stan James (1 Unit)
Benoit Paire win 2-0 @ 2.38 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Daniel Brands win 2-0 @ 2.50 Coral (1 Unit)
Jarkko Nieminen win 2-0 @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 3.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)

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