Tennis Picks 2014 (January 2nd)

There were some contrasting fortunes for the picks on New Year's Day as Roger Federer marched into the Quarter Final in Brisbane, but Andy Murray was knocked out in the Second Round in Doha.

The individual picks for the day went 2-2 for the second day in a row, but fortunately the unit-managing has meant the profit has improved for the week, albeit by a smaller amount than I would have liked.

It's a long season on the tennis Tour so there is no reason to be alarmed and I would much rather have a winning start to the season than the other way around.


Fabio Fognini win 2-0 v Yuki Bhambri: This is Fabio Fognini's first match of the new season and he is hardly someone that you would back with any real confidence, even in a match where he seems to have most of the aces.

Fognini had a decent middle of last season which saw him moving up the Rankings, but he hasn't really kicked on in the manner that some would have hoped.

His game will always give opponents a chance as he doesn't have the overwhelming shot and has to grind players down. However, that grinding side to his game should work well enough against Yuki Bhambri who has been given a Wild Card into the event.

The young Indian player had a decent win in the First Round which will give him some confidence but I am not sure if he has the consistency to beat someone like Fognini who will try and get as many balls back in play and force Bhambri to perhaps push a little too hard.

I think Fognini should be a little too good, but can't have anything more than a small interest in the Italian winning this one in straight sets.


Dustin Brown - 1.5 games v Peter Gojowcyzk: I don't think too many people would have predicted this to be a Quarter Final in Doha this week and the winner will not only earn some very important Ranking points, but they will also have the chance to perhaps take on Rafael Nadal for a place in the Final this weekend.

That should motivate Dustin Brown and Peter Gojowcyzk no end in this match and both players are coming off tough Second Round wins. After coming through the qualifiers, fitness will also be an important factor to separate the players, but Dustin Brown will have good memories of beating Gojowcyzk here last year.

Brown's win in the qualifiers last year over Gojowcyzk improved his record to 3-1 between these players that would both know each other fairly well as both are based in Germany. I do think Brown has the more unpredictable game, especially if he is half a step slow to the net with his attacking tennis after a week on the court under his feet.

However, Brown has the experience of beating this opponent and has a game that looks like one that can cause a lot of problems for players outside of the top 100 and I will look for him to come through 63, 46, 64.


Florian Mayer - 3.5 games v Victor Hanescu: I am not a fan of backing a player immediately after they are coming off a huge surprise win, but I do think Florian Mayer can follow his win over Andy Murray with another in this Quarter Final.

Coming off a surprise victory can be tough for players from an emotional standpoint and it can be tough to invest the necessary concentration for the next match, especially when coming up against an unheralded opponent. Victor Hanescu is certainly much more comfortable on the clay courts these days, and he too is coming off a surprise win when beating Fernando Verdasco in three sets.

Hanescu does have a game that can earn him a lot of points on the faster surfaces, but I think he has lost a step when it comes to defending on these courts and that hasn't helped his record which was a poor 2-9 on the outdoor hard courts last season.

He will be able to have a go at the Mayer serve, but the erratic and unpredictable play of the German is much more difficult to read at times. The first set may be close, but I have a feeling that Mayer will be able to come through and then follow that with a more straight-forward second set to go through to the Semi Final with a 76, 63 win.


Gael Monfils - 1.5 games v Daniel Brands: It was one of the strange occurrences of the early portion of the 2013 season that Daniel Brands beat Gael Monfils in all three matches they played before the French Open including here in Doha at the same stage.

So why am I taking Monfils? I think a lot of last season was down to the fact that Monfils was trying to play through injuries and I believe the Frenchman is the more talented player, even if he is the more unpredictable too.

Daniel Brands has a decent serve, but I don't think he is that effective on the ground and I think Monfils has the game that should be able to wear him down. It didn't last season and Monfils will have to serve a lot better to make sure he is in a position to get his first win over Brands, but there were signs at the end of last season that Monfils was returning to form.

The flamboyant Frenchman played well against Richard Gasquet and I think he will be motivated to at least start righting the head to head between these players and I like Monfils to come through 64 76.

MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini win 2-0 @ 2.30 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Dustin Brown - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Florian Mayer - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-4, + 1.43 Units (13 Units Staked, + 11% Yield)