NFL Play Offs Championship Game Picks 2017 (January 22nd)

We are down to the final three games of the NFL season and this weekend we will find out which two teams are heading to Houston to compete for the Super Bowl in two weeks time.

Both AFC and NFC Championship Games look very good on paper and I think both will be very good on the field. With the spreads the way they are, I do think both underdogs will play a big part in their games, but overall I just hope there is a lot of drama like we saw in the Dallas Cowboys versus Green Bay Packers game last week.

If any of these games are better than that one, we are in for a treat on Championship Weekend.

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: The NFC Championship Game is the final game to be played at the Georgia Dome with the Atlanta Falcons hosting the Green Bay Packers. Both had impressive wins in the Divisional Round and the Green Bay Packers are looking for a repeat of their last Super Bowl when they ran the gauntlet of road games in the Play Offs before a Super Bowl win.

They are arguably the hottest team going into the Play Offs with improvements on both sides of the ball and the Green Bay Packers won't fear anyone having knocked off the Number 1 Seed in the NFC in the Dallas Cowboys. One concern might be the flu bug that has swept through the Packers locker room over the last week which saw Aaron Rodgers a little sore too, but at this stage of the season there cannot be any excuses.

An injury to Devante Adams was a blow to the Green Bay Packers last week and he is going to be held out of practice all week to make sure he can go in this one. Adams might be listed as 'questionable' but he will play, although it is less likely that Jordy Nelson can return from the rib injury he suffered in the win over the New York Giants which saw him miss the win over Dallas last week.

As much of a blow as it would be for the Packers to miss Adams, they still have Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back and he has shown he can extend plays and make others around him look better than they are. That throw to Jared Cook which helped the Packers win the game last week is going to be one that is replayed down the years if Green Bay can go on and win a second Super Bowl with Rodgers at Quarter Back and I don't think there are too many in his position who can make that throw.

The Falcons Defensive Line have managed to find some pressure up front which rattled Russell Wilson in the win over Seattle last week, but Green Bay's Offensive Line have protected Rodgers well enough. There is no doubt that Rodgers reads Defenses as well as anyone does and he is capable of moving in and out of the pocket to find the time to make his throws downfield.

That should negate the Atlanta pass rush to a point and I would expect Rodgers and the Packers to have more success against this Secondary that Seattle seemingly could. Moving the ball shouldn't be a big problem, but Green Bay could be under pressure to make sure they finish drives with Touchdowns rather than Field Goals if they are going to win this game.

Scoring points is going to be important for the Green Bay Packers as their banged up Defensive unit try to slow down the best Offense in the NFL. The Atlanta Falcons perhaps don't receive the same plaudits as others because they are marshalled by Matt Ryan, a Quarter Back with two Play Off wins in his career, but there is no doubt he is playing at a high level.

Ryan will be ably supported by Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman as both players are capable of running the ball effectively and have a good match up here. I would expect the Falcons to be able to establish the run as the Packers will be concerned in stopping the pass and both Freeman and Coleman are also threats coming out of the backfield to make catches and big gains in open space.

Julio Jones is a little banged up, but the Wide Receiver will play on Sunday and he will be a match up nightmare for the Green Bay Secondary with his size and athleticism. Even a limited Jones will take some of the attention away from capable Receivers and the Falcons should have plenty of success moving the ball and scoring points too.

A key factor that can be hard to determine is going to be turnovers with Fumbles and Interceptions to earn extra possessions likely to make all the difference in the Championship Game. You can't really predict with confidence which team will win the turnover margin, but the Packers Defensive unit have looked stronger than their play by making sure they do earn the turnovers to give Aaron Rodgers a chance to pull away.

Both Quarter Backs have looked after the ball pretty well, but you have to favour Rodgers in the clutch with his experience and the way he is playing at the moment. He might not be able to pull Green Bay over the hump as he needs the Defensive unit to step up, but Rodgers can make sure this is competitive, and perhaps as close as the one point win for the Atlanta Falcons in their regular season meeting here.

The illness that has spread through the Green Bay camp has to be a worry as well as the banged up Receivers, but I like Aaron Rodgers with the points to make the plays to keep this one within the number.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots Pick: I have no affiliation with the Pittsburgh Steelers, but the only reason I wanted them to get into the Play Offs and progress to the AFC Championship Game is because I feel they have the best chance to give the New England Patriots a competitive game before the Super Bowl. I do dislike the Patriots as a Divisional rival to the Miami Dolphins, but anyone who doesn't respect what Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have been able to do for their franchise has to not be a true fan of the NFL.

The New England Patriots are the 'gold standard' of the NFL according to Ben Roethlisberger and any team that beats them will be a genuine Super Bowl contender. They are a big favourite to see off the Pittsburgh Steelers against whom they have a very good recent record, but I do think the road team can test the Patriots more than most.

The Patriots Defensive statistics are hard to get a real feel for because they have not exactly played the best teams in the NFL this season. The question is then whether the Patriots as good as the stats say, or whether they are a product of the level of opponent they have seen and I think it is something in between both extremes.

The Defensive Line is very good and they can give Le'Veon Bell something to think about despite how well the Running Back is playing. Bell has been creating new moves for Backs in the NFL and he is arguably the best player in his position and I do think he has been aided by a very good Pittsburgh Offensive Line that should open some holes for him.

Bell is also a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield and makes some plays from there and he has been a key to the Pittsburgh run through the Play Offs. It has eased the pressure on Ben Roethlisberger although the Quarter Back won't be happy with his own play as turnovers have been an issue for him. Big Ben has to be careful with the ball in this one as losing the turnover battle will likely mean the end of the season for the Steelers even if he has a very good target in Antonio Brown to throw to down the field.

It does feel like Pittsburgh are going to be able to move the ball as Brock Osweiler had success last week despite his own limitations at Quarter Back. Roethlisberger is much better and should have the time to make his plays especially if Bell is proving to be a threat coming out of the backfield.

That means it will be up to Tom Brady and the New England Offense to try and match the output from the Steelers and Brady has to be a lot better than he was in the Divisional Round. Brady was guilty of two bad Interceptions which kept the Houston Texans alive in that game despite being clearly second best and it does have to be said that the whole New England performance was a little flat against an overmatched opponent.

You have to believe Brady is going to be much more focused on Sunday against a much better opponent, but the Steelers Defensive unit have been improved over the course of the season. Historically Brady has bamboozled the Defense of the Steelers, but this current group have managed to get a lot of pressure on the Quarter Back down the stretch and Brady has shown he can be rattled when Defenders are bringing him down.

The Pittsburgh Defensive Line have also shown improvement over the last couple of weeks in the Play Offs so they will feel they can slow down ex-Steeler LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis who had a huge game last week. Lewis may be more of a problem as a pass catching Running Back, but Pittsburgh have been fast around the line of scrimmage which has also helped protect the Secondary.

Brady should be helped by an establish running game from Pittsburgh, but he may have to loosen things up front by making a few more throws earlier in the game. That will allow the Steelers to try and get their pass rush ramped up, while the Secondary have made some big plays during games to shift momentum.

This has all the makings of another close game between teams who will feel they can score the points which will take them to the Super Bowl. The 'Killer B's' of the Pittsburgh Steelers all have to be at their best for the upset, but the Steelers might have been the team that matched up best with New England in the entire Conference and showed their character in winning at Kansas City last week.

Taking the points with the underdog in what could be a close game looks the best way forward and I think the Pittsburgh Steelers can do that. I just hope Ben Roethlisberger has his cleanest game in weeks and avoids the turnovers which could allow New England to pull away, but I will look for the two-time Super Bowl to show his experience and make this another competitive Championship Game on Sunday.

MY PICKS: Green Bay Packers + 6 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Divisional Round: 2-2, - 0.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 3.5% Yield)
Wild Card: 2-2, - 0.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 3.5% Yield)
Week 17: 5-2, + 5.36 Units (14 Units Staked, + 38.29% Yield)
Week 16: 2-4, - 4.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)
Week 15: 6-1, + 9.06 Units (14 Units Staked, + 64.71% Yield)
Week 14: 4-5, - 2.36 Units (18 Units Staked, - 13.11% Yield)
Week 13: 4-3, + 1.62 Units (14 Units Staked, + 11.57% Yield)
Week 12: 6-5, + 1.46 Units (22 Units Staked, + 6.64% Yield)
Week 11: 3-4, - 2.54 Units (14 Units Staked, - 18.14% Yield)
Week 10: 2-6, - 8.46 Units (16 Units Staked, - 52.88% Yield)
Week 9: 5-2-1, + 5.54 Units (16 Units Staked, + 34.63% Yield)
Week 8: 5-2, + 5.34 Units (14 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)
Week 7: 5-3, + 3.36 Units (16 Units Staked, + 21% Yield)
Week 6: 3-3, - 0.46 Units (12 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 5: 2-3-1, - 2.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 19.67% Yield)
Week 4: 5-5, + 0.26 Units (19 Units Staked, + 1.37% Yield)
Week 3: 2-3-1, - 2.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 22.70% Yield)
Week 2: 5-5, - 0.70 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.50% Yield)
Week 1: 4-3-1, + 0.29 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.93% Yield)

Season 2016: 72-63-4, + 8.22 Units (274 Units Staked, + 1.03% Yield)

NFL Conference Championship Play Off Picks 2016 (Sunday 24th January)

After a week in which all of the road teams won their Play Off games, the Divisional Round saw all of the home teams win.

You can't say there have been too many upsets in the post-season so far with all of the games being won by the favourites aside from the Green Bay win in Washington when the home team were favoured by a single point.

Now we have reached the Conference Championship Games and this time we have one small home favourite and one small home underdog as the Number 1 Seeds host the Number 2 Seeds in both the AFC and NFC Championship Games.

I have to say I am looking forward to both games and I have picks from both.


New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos Pick: The Denver Broncos stole the Number 1 Seed in the AFC from under the New England Patriots' noses, but I don't think it was ever a big concern for Bill Belichick to host the Championship Game. That was particularly the case with the injuries New England had been dealing with in the final two weeks of the regular season, but they are a lot healthier now and will be seeking revenge for a loss here in the regular season.

It hasn't been a familiar position for the New England Patriots in recent years as their AFC Championship Games have mainly been held at home during the Bill Belichick-Tom Brady era. The Patriots haven't really enjoyed the last two times they have had to travel for the AFC Championship Game as they have lost both of those, ironically to the Quarter Back they will be facing on Sunday.

Peyton Manning helped the Denver Broncos beat the New England Patriots here two seasons ago and was also Quarter Back of the Indianapolis Colts when they beat New England at home in 2007. However, I don't think it is really making any grand statement to say that Manning is not the same as even the Quarter Back that played in the Championship Game two seasons ago and his career in Denver is winding down.

He would love to go out on a high, but Manning will have to be better than he was in the win over the Pittsburgh Steelers when only a busted decision from the referees helped Denver come back and win that game. Manning was somehow allowed to get up from a 'self Sack' and then throw the ball for a 40 yard gain, but it was mainly a poor passing day for the future Hall of Fame player, while his Receivers haven't helped with too many drops.

I don't want to be overly critical of Peyton Manning who has had a wonderful career, but I am not sure he has enough to lead Denver to a win in this one. The Patriots have a lot of respect for Manning too, but they will use a fierce pass rush to rattle the Quarter Back and make sure he does not have the time to throw the ball to his Receivers down the field.

The deep ball is gone anyway, but Manning might have some success if the quick passes can be caught by his Receivers and that might be the best way they can get the running game established. Manning is more reliant on the likes of CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman than he has been on other Running Backs over the last few years as he can't move the chains with his arm alone, but the New England Patriots will clamp down on the run like the Steelers did in the Divisional Round and will almost dare Manning to beat them with his arm.

There will be a lot of coverage about Peyton Manning in this one, no less so because he is facing his old adversary Tom Brady who is still playing up to the level he has set for himself. Brady will be very glad that he has got all of his Offensive weapons back and he has had one look at the Denver Defensive unit already this season and has the likes of Julian Edelman in the starting line up this time.

Brady played well in the first game considering the supporting cast, but that shouldn't be an issue this week. The likes of Edelman and Rob Gronkowski create match up problems no matter where they line up, but Denver will have faith in the Defense that has been so important to their success all season.

It will be up to Brady to make the plays because the New England Patriots are not going to have a lot of success lining up and traditionally running the ball. This is the one area that Denver have been strong through the season and it was a big hit against Fitzgerald Toussaint when he tried running the ball that became the key play of their Divisional Round win over Pittsburgh.

Now Josh McDaniels won't want to drop Brady back and have him throw fifty times a game, but I can see New England using a number of players similar to Pittsburgh to move the ball on the ground. That is getting Danny Amendola, Brandon LeFell and Julian Edelman taking some end arounds to find themselves in space, while Brady will be happy to make the short passes to keep the Offensive unit in third and manageable spots through the game.

As much as Denver have enjoyed getting the pressure on the Quarter Backs they have faced, it has been possible to throw the ball against them, while New England's Offensive Line is healthier now. I expect they will give Brady just enough time to make his plays and I do think it will be difficult for Peyton Manning to keep up barring his Defense giving him a couple of short fields with turnovers or big Special Teams plays.

The Patriots will have to change some recent history as eight of the last nine AFC Championship Games have been won by the team hosting. However, favourites in the Conference Championship Game of three points or fewer have a very strong 11-3 record against the spread going back to 1986.

One area New England have thrived in is the revenging a same season loss and they have gone 12-4 against the spread under Bill Belichick in that regards. Add in the fact that teams that won the last regular season game are just 7-11-1 against the spread in the last couple of years in post-season games.

 I do think New England will have learned a lot about Denver from their first game and it is hard to see Peyton Manning generating enough points to win this game unless Tom Brady turns the ball over two or three times.

New England are an experienced bunch and I think they are looking healthier while I can see them earning revenge over Denver by beating them in the AFC Championship Game at the same venue they were beaten by the Broncos two seasons ago.


Arizona Cardinals @ Carolina Panthers Pick: This was the game that I always felt was most deserving of the NFC Championship Game and I hope the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals are over their nervy finishes to the Divisional Round.

The Panthers were very close to blowing their 31-0 half time lead to Seattle who might have won the game if they could have pushed it to Overtime with all the momentum behind them. On the other side of the coin was the Arizona Cardinals giving up a Hail Mary pass that forced their game into Overtime before a couple of huge plays from Carson Palmer to Larry Fitzgerald won it for the Cardinals against the Green Bay Packers.

Carson Palmer had a horrible start to the game with the Packers as he couldn't shake the nerves that come for a player that has had zero Play Off success before last week. That win in the Divisional Round should loosen Palmer up and he and Bruce Arians must have been excited to see what the Seahawks were able to do when they were forced to pass in the second half to get back into the game.

It is not the first time the Panthers have allowed a furious comeback this season- the Green Bay Packers and the New York Giants both rallied before ultimately coming up short as Seattle did last week when the time, rather than the Carolina Defense, beat them. This is now a Carolina Secondary that have given up over 300 passing yards per game in their last three games and face an Arizona team that love throwing the ball and are very successful at doing that.

There will be some pressure on Palmer from the pass rush that Carolina generate and he has to be aware of trying to take away the mistakes that have blighted him in recent games. This is a ball-hawking team that looks to create turnover and every possession is going to be key for Arizona to pull the upset.

Bruce Arians will know his team matches up well Offensively with Carolina even if it is unlikely that Arizona will be able to run the ball effectively, but he should also have faith that the Defensive unit can slow down Cam Newton and the Panthers. Newton has been immense when you think of what he has been working with, while Jonathan Stewart looked strong after missing a couple of games through injury.

I do think Carolina can establish the run in this game which is vital for them if they are going to win this game. Both Stewart and Mike Tolbert will be able to find space against Arizona who have struggled against the run in recent games, although that could be down to facing three very good passers and so losing the focus.

Either way  I do think Carolina will have some joy running the ball with Newton using the read-option to good effect, but the key will be whether they can make the big plays through the air which has been a feature of their games all through the season. One aspect where Arizona have improved in each passing week is getting some sort of pass rush generated, although getting to Cam Newton is far from easy, but Arizona also know they have a Secondary that can shut down Receivers.

It is a shame that Tyrann Mathieu is out for the Cardinals, but this is still a team that has used the pressure up front to make the Secondary look even more effective. It has been a struggle at times for Carolina to make the plays through the air that they would like to, especially in recent games, and I think Arizona may have learnt something from the way Seattle approached the second half to slow down what the Panthers wanted to do.

As soon as this game was set I knew I wanted to back the Arizona Cardinals if they were given at least three points here, even though the statistic I pointed out in the Denver-New England pick points to a trend that would favour the home favourites. Unlike the AFC Championship Game, hosting the NFC Championship Game hasn't meant all that in recent seasons with those teams going 4-4 straight up, but they were 2-4 before Seattle's two consecutive wins in the last two seasons although just 1-1 against the spread in those wins.

Carolina have been very dominant as the home underdog of three points or fewer as I pointed out when backing them to beat Seattle, but this Arizona team is 15-7 against the spread as the road underdog over the last couple of seasons, while they are 4-0 against the spread when set as the road underdog of three points or fewer.

I also think the time of the game is significant for Arizona as it will match what they might be used to on the West Coast even though this game is played in Carolina. It could be cold which is an issue for an indoor team playing outdoors, but I think Arizona earn some revenge for their Play Off loss to the Panthers last season when injuries bit them hard.

This should be a really fun game to watch but I think enough factors are pointing to the Cardinals in this one and I will take the points being offered.

MY PICKS: New England Patriots - 3 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals + 3 Points @ 2.o0 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

College Football Week 15 Picks 2014 (December 5-6)

Wow, the Committee picking the four Play Off teams really don't like Florida State do they? That was my reaction to the latest release of the top four teams and I think it will be very difficult for any team to break through over Alabama, Oregon, TCU and Florida State barring one, or more, of those teams losing their final games this week.

Alabama, Oregon and Florida State are all involved in Championship Games this week and any of those teams losing would surely see them drop out of the top four... Two of those teams losing would really put the cat amongst the pigeons, but I personally don't see that happening at all.

That means the Baylor Bears and the Ohio State Buckeyes are looking in at the moment, although the latter could get a really big boost by winning the Big Ten Championship. In fact, I would argue that Ohio State would be more likely to be promoted into the top four if they win this week and one of those teams in those positions were to lose, while Baylor likely need two teams to lose, or TCU to be beaten, for them to make it into the first Play Off.


The interesting thing for me is how far the Seminoles have dropped despite being unbeaten and I do contemplate whether Florida State would have been in the top two if the BCS system from last season was still in play. I don't think they would have been dropped as an unbeaten team of two years from playing in the National Championship Game, but the Committee seems to be using the room they have with the four team Play Off to make a point of where they see Florida State.

Are they really going to be so unimpressed by an unbeaten team, the only one in the nation, to drop them out of the top four without losing a game? I would say there is almost no chance of that happening, and I still think it is a little unfair for Florida State to have been dropped again despite the poor performance from Jameis Winston against the Florida Gators.

One aspect that could be one to see is how much the Committee take Conference Champions into consideration- at the start of the season, many felt the lack of a Championship Game for the Big 12 would make it difficult for that Conference to send a team into the Play Off. The injury to JT Barrett of Ohio State perhaps has made than an easier decision, but will the SEC, Pac-12 and ACC Champion, assuming three of the top four win those games this weekend, really be seeded below TCU as a Big 12 joint Champion?

That decision could make it easier for people to predict how the Rankings will go in twelve months time and is definitely going to produce one of the talking points next Tuesday. Of course a TCU loss this weekend would make that a moot point.


It was another shallow winning week for the picks last week, but I haven't really had the big win to cover some of the issues the picks have had during the season which is a disappointment. However, that is three weeks in a row with a positive outcome and I am hoping the last six weeks of the season can be very productive as Bowl Games begin after this week.


Oregon Ducks v Arizona Wildcats Pick: There is no doubt that this looks a very big number to cover for the Oregon Ducks considering their last two losses to the Arizona Wildcats and the public are very much on the side of the underdog in this one.

However, you can't talk about those two losses without mentioning some of the extenuating circumstances that could have affected Oregon in both. The first saw an injured Marcos Mariota barely able to move, while the second saw him running for his life behind a patchwork Offensive Line.

In this Pac-12 Championship Game, Oregon can't ask to come in any healthier as a returning Keonon Lowe gives Mariota a full complement of Receivers to throw too. On the other hand, Arizona will miss their second most effective Receiver in Samajie Grant and Anu Solomon hasn't been playing to the high level he displayed earlier this season.

I still think Solomon will have success as long as Nick Wilson continues to run the ball hard, but Oregon are a team on a mission and have been dominating opponents since the loss to Arizona. The Ducks will be playing in the College Play Off as long as they win this game, but I think they might have a chip on their shoulder and want to prove the two losses to the Wildcats were down to the circumstances mentioned.

Oregon have been effective as a neutral field team as they have gone 3-1 against the spread in that spot over the last three seasons. The Ducks are also a team that is 8-2 against the spread as a favourite of between 10.5 and 21 points, including going 4-0 this season, so covering the big number isn't something that will intimidate them.

Booking a place in the College Play Off with a dominating win over a team that has got the better of them in the last couple of seasons will be what Oregon look to sign off on. Going against the public is just an extra boost in this game, the big one on Friday night.


Louisiana Tech Bulldogs @ Marshall Thundering Herd Pick: The Marshall Thundering Herd saw their unbeaten season go up in smoke last week, but they can bounce back by winning the Conference-USA Championship Game on homefield.

However, falling off from the unbeaten path means Marshall have lost the chance to play in a big Bowl Game and Louisiana Tech could take advantage in a game where both Offenses should be able to score points. The absence of Devon Johnson would be another problem for Marshall to deal with and I think it could be tough for the team to pick themselves up even if this is a Championship Game.

By backing the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, I am not saying that Marshall won't rally to win, but I am suggesting it is far more competitive than the layers believe. The Bulldogs are 6-1 against the spread on the road this season and they are 4-0 against the spread as the underdog, while they have enough scoring power to keep this very close.

Marshall's last two games have been very competitive and the underdog is 5-2 against the spread in the Conference-USA Championship Game.


Iowa State Cyclones @ TCU Horned Frogs Pick: Style points don't matter to TCU any more as they moved up to Number 3 in the College Play Off Rankings, but being able to relax a little more may allow them to beat the Iowa State Cyclones and cover the large number.

TCU have a very under-rated Defense and they can shut down what Iowa State are able to do on the ground, although the Cyclones should have some success throwing the ball. The problem will be evading the heavy pass rush the Horned Frogs can get if the Cyclones are kept in third and long and that can lead to turnovers and giving this TCU Offense extra possessions to move clear.

Trevone Boykin and the Offense should be able to have their way with Iowa State and it is going to be difficult to stop TCU moving the ball up and down the field in this one. The Horned Frogs have been dominant at home and they have also shown capability of winning games by very large margins.


Alabama Crimson Tide v Missouri Tigers Pick: On first glance, getting more than two Touchdowns start against Alabama looks a big number for Missouri and I am unsurprised the public are favouring them in this game.

However, I want to go against the majority again in this game and I like the Crimson Tide to remind the fans why there is such a difference between the SEC West and SEC East this season.

When the line opened at under two Touchdowns, I loved Alabama, but now I only like Alabama because I do think the Missouri Defense has the potential to bamboozle Blake Sims a little and the Quarter Back hasn't played as well outside of Tuscaloosa. On the other hand, I am not sure how Maty Mauk is going to help his Offense move the chains against an Alabama Defense that will want to show they are a lot better than what they did in the Iron Bowl.

The line of scrimmage is so important in these SEC games and I do give Alabama the edge on that front and expect TJ Yeldon/Derrick Henry to be the Running Back tandem to have the bigger games ahead of Russell Hansbrough/Marcus Murphy. That should open things up a little more for Blake Sims, who has been well protected for the most part by the Offensive Line of Alabama, and I expect he has a strong outing connecting with Amari Cooper.

Alabama haven't been a great favourite to back and Missouri have thrived as the underdog for much of this season. The underdog has also covered the last two years in the SEC Championship Game, but I can't get the Georgia performance out of my head from Missouri, nor the way the Offense struggled against Florida.

Nick Saban won't let those mistakes creep into the Alabama team and I like the Crimson Tide to roll into the Play Offs with the Number 1 Seed well and truly wrapped up.


Kansas State Wildcats @ Baylor Bears Pick: It is hard to gauge how the fans will react in this game with it unlikely to be possible for the Baylor Bears to make it into the Play Offs barring some help from elsewhere. Style points are unlikely to make a difference for them at this late stage of the season, but a defeat for one of the top four teams and Baylor may want to remember to impress the Committee more than Ohio State possibly do.

The Kansas State Wildcats are one of the more effective teams in College Football because they don't make many mistakes and Bill Snyder will have them fully prepared as he does in every game. They are one of the best road underdogs to back with considerable success in causing upsets and this is also a revenge game for them having had their own National Championship ambitions upset by Baylor in 2012.

However, this is a Baylor team that are much more effective at home than on the road and the return of Bryce Petty would be huge for them. The TCU Horned Frogs showed a powerful Offense can give Kansas State plenty of issues, although TCU have the better Defense compared with Baylor too in my opinion.

The Bears are 14-4 against the spread at home over the last three seasons and the Wildcats were beaten by 21 points against a TCU team that are considered a little better than Baylor. While this is likely to be closer, I also think a little over a Touchdown start won't be enough for Kansas State and I like Baylor to win by at least ten points.


Florida State Seminoles v Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Pick: This is yet another game where the public is actually on the side of the underdog, but I like the favourite to come through. Florida State have made a habit of surprising people when many have thought they are ripe for the upset, for example in road games at Louisville and Miami, and the Seminoles covered in both of those games despite the public fading them.

I won't disagree with one sentiment that seems to be flying around- Florida State have not really played like a team that is unbeaten and it isn't hard to see why the Committee have dropped them down to Number 4 and a potential huge Semi Final against the Alabama Crimson Tide in the New Year.

Playing against the 'triple option' Offense is very difficult, especially when facing it for the first time, and that is another reason the public, and a lot of 'experts', are feeling an upset brewing.

However, I think Florida State will be able to run the ball against this Defense and should release the pressure on Jameis Winston who has to be better than he was against Florida last week. Winston has some big Receivers too and I think the Quarter Back has the potential to have his most complete game as long as Dalvin Cook takes advantage of what looks a favourable match up running the ball.

The ACC Championship Game has seen the favourite go 5-2 against the spread over the last seven years, but Georgia Tech have thrived as the underdog this season. However, this Florida State team has shown too much heart to be discounted with so much on the line and I like how they proved the doubters wrong in the two games they have been favoured by 4 or fewer points this season by winning and covering in both.


Ohio State Buckeyes v Wisconsin Badgers Pick: It is one of those strange weeks where I seem to be going against the public a fair bit and this is a game where I like the to go against the public favourite and look for the Ohio State Buckeyes to at least cover.

Cardale Jones takes over at Quarter Back from an injured JT Barrett and that is a big loss for the Buckeyes, but also means every player on that field for Ohio State is likely to empty the tank to help the inexperienced player taking over. There are so many occasions where teams raise their level when a star player is lost through injury and Ohio State believe Jones can be effective enough to couple with Ezekiel Elliot to move the chains for the Buckeyes.

My one big concern is that the Wisconsin Defense is one of the best that Ohio State will face, especially as I would have been more comfortable with Barrett at Quarter Back who had such a strong game against Michigan State.

Melvin Gordon has a slight ankle injury, but the Running Back should take part and have a fair bit of success against this Ohio State Defense. The big question is whether or not Joel Stave can make enough plays at Quarter Back to keep the Buckeyes off balance and I think the athleticism that Ohio State have is going to keep them in the game.

The underdog has covered in all three Big Ten Championship Games over the last three seasons and Ohio State have thrived as the underdog with Urban Meyer as Head Coach, going 3-0 against the spread in that spot.

Wisconsin are just 1-3 against the spread over the last three seasons on a neutral field and I think this could end up being a game decided by a Field Goal which makes the points given to Ohio State look appealing enough to back.


Fresno State Bulldogs @ Boise State Broncos Pick: Boise State will host Fresno State for the second time this season and will look to beat them again and I will be on the same side as the public by backing the Broncos to do that in impressive fashion.

The first game should have been an easier win for the Boise State Broncos who dominated the clock and also the yards totals and they should be able to build on their confidence to take home the Mountain West Championship.

Both teams should have success running the ball, but the Broncos should have considerably more success throwing it than Fresno State and that may end up proving to be the reason the Boise State pull away and win big.

Boise State have been 7-4 against the spread as the favourite this season and they are 4-2 against the spread at home and I think they will be able to defend a little better and make sure this isn't as close as when they first met.

MY PICKS: Oregon Ducks - 14.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
TCU Horned Frogs - 34.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 14.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Baylor Bears - 7 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 4 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes + 4.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
Boise State Broncos - 22.5 Points @ 1.92 Stan James (1 Unit)

Week 14: 8-7, + 0.47 Units (15 Units Staked, + 3.13% Yield)
Week 13: 7-6, + 0.37 Units (13 Units Staked, + 2.85% Yield)
Week 12: 7-5, + 1.40 Units (12 Units Staked, + 11.67% Yield)
Week 11: 9-4, + 4.34 Units (13 Units Staked, + 33.38% Yield)
Week 10: 6-7, - 1.51 Units (13 Units Staked, - 11.62% Yield)

Week 9: 4-9-1, - 5.31 Units (14 Units Staked, - 37.93% Yield)

Week 8: 5-7, - 2.26 Units (12 Units Staked, - 18.83% Yield)

Week 7: 3-8, - 5.31 Units (11 Units Staked, - 48.27% Yield)

Week 6: 2-7, - 5.13 Units (9 Units Staked, - 57% Yield)

Week 5: 4-5, - 1.13 Units (9 Units Staked, - 12.56% Yield)

Week 4: 6-5, + 0.58 Units (11 Units Staked, + 5.27% Yield)

Week 3: 3-7-1, - 4.18 Units (11 Units Staked, - 38% Yield)

Week 2: 5-6, - 1.18 Units (11 Units Staked, - 10.72% Yield)

Week 1: 6-4, + 1.77 Units (10 Units Staked, + 11.7% Yield)

Season 2014: 69-80-2, - 17.08 Units (164 Units Staked, - 10.41% Yield)

Season 2013: 65-49-2, + 8.49 Units (124 Units Staked, + 6.85% Yield)

Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)

Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)

NFL Play Offs Conference Championships 2014 (January 19th)

We have reached the final weekend of the NFL season as we get to decide the two teams that will compete in the Super Bowl in two weeks time in New York City. In all honesty, I think we are fortunate in seeing the four best teams in the NFL remaining alive to win the big game and that should lead to two very good Conference Championship Games on Sunday.


The Play Offs haven't been as successful for my picks as last season, but the season has proved to be a very profitable one and that's all you can ask for back in September when everything gets going.

I hope the last three games will at least add to that as we get the games going.


New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos Pick: We know what the Broncos are able to do with the powerful Offense they have been running all season, although there have been small signs that teams are beginning to get a hang of what they are seeing. Even then, it is tough to find a way to stop the likes of Demaryius Thomas, Erik Decker, Julius Thomas and Wes Welker and that is just the Receivers and not accounting for the Running Backs coming out of the backfield.

Bill Belichick is sure to have something up his sleeve in a bid to rattle Peyton Manning when he does drop back to pass and the New England Patriots have found pressure from their pass rush. The Patriots should also show more discipline than the San Diego Chargers who were probably dreaming about 'Omaha' on their journey back to California after the loss last weekend.

If New England can at least force Manning to think about where the pressure is coming from, they have a Defense that can cause some disruption in the passing game, but it will all begin and end up front. If the pressure is not there, we did see Andrew Luck have decent success throwing the ball against the Patriots last week and there is no doubt that Denver hold many more weapons than the Colts did without Reggie Wayne in their line up.

It is not like the Patriots can sell out to defend the pass either as Manning is smart enough to check into a run play if there are not the number of men in the box that he is expecting. New England have struggled against the rush without Vince Wilfork so the likes of Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball should be able to keep the chains moving if they are handed the ball by the Quarter Back.

The rushing attack has also been all the rage in New England in their last few games and that was highlighted by the team scoring over 40 points against Indianapolis, yet Tom Brady didn't throw one Touchdown pass. New England have lost some serious Receivers since last season and during the course of this one through injury, but the Offensive Line seems to have enjoyed pounding the ball on the ground and that has seen LeGarroutte Blount show off his own ability.

Between Blount, Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley, New England have the change of pace at the Running Back position and they have all been effective, although it might not be so easy against a stout Denver Defense. Despite the injuries on that side of the ball, the Broncos have continued making it tough to run the ball against them and they showed that off last week by shutting down the San Diego Chargers when it came to an element that had hurt them at times in the regular season.

That does mean New England are likely to rely on Tom Brady a little more in this one than they did last week and the Quarter Back could open the running lanes by having success through the air. Von Miller is out for the Broncos, but they still managed to get a pass rush going against San Diego, and that is an area that the Patriots Offensive Line haven't always been as comfortable with.

Denver will have to get to Brady if they are to win this game, particularly with the injury suffered by Chris Harris last week which exposed a Secondary in the last quarter against the Chargers. Brady might not have the household names any more, but Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman could pose problems for the Broncos if Quentin Jammer hasn't improved his play with a week of practice under his belt. That will at least give New England the chance to compete in a shoot-out too and could be the biggest problem for Denver to deal with in this game.

Both of these teams have had me convinced that they are the right side to back at different times during the week and it has been tough to get a real feel for being on the correct side, although I have eventually landed with taking New England and the points to at least keep this game competitive.

The Patriots know all about Peyton Manning and while his Offense looks loaded with talented weapons, I think Bill Belichick will do enough to give Tom Brady and his own Offense the chance to surprise the home team.

That's not to say New England will prevent Denver scoring points, I just think the Defense will have enough success to at least limit them to the point that the Patriots own Offense can score enough points to stay with them.

It is easy to see one mistake being critical to which teams goes through to the Super Bowl in New York, but getting more than a field goal head start on New England looks a touch too high. That is especially the case considering the Patriots have rarely been beaten comfortably with their highest point loss being just 7 points all season and I can see Tom Brady at least scoring late to get within the number.

The Patriots are also a good team that has won 13 games this season and the trend that teams that have won at least 12 games but have a weaker record than their opponent are 39-11 against the spread does favour them. However, coming off big blow out wins in the Play Offs has been tough to back up and that has to be a concern for the Patriots backers.

Even then, the absence of Chris Harris for Denver looks to be opening a big enough hole in the Secondary for New England to find a way to exploit it and I think Tom Brady is already a touch annoyed at being the underdog. He mentioned last weekend that no one will expect New England to win and the Patriots have always been strong in that position too so I will take the points in this one and just hope for a close Denver win (that's the Miami Dolphin fan coming out of me at the end).


San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: One of the questions that is going to need answering is how well Russell Wilson plays at the Quarter Back position with some in the media beginning to question how well he is playing. It is true that Wilson hasn't been at his best the last few games, but he is a Quarter Back that relishes the big game and he will be able to make plays against this Secondary if he can scramble away from the pressure that San Francisco have been generating with the return of Aldon Smith.

It will begin by handing the ball to Marshawn Lynch and letting 'Beast Mode' try and pick up some yards on the ground, although it has to be said that the 49ers Defense is playing the run very well in recent games. While they have been productive in that regards all season, the 49ers have only given up 3.4 yards per carry over their last three games, although don't expect Seattle to get away from the game plan as Lynch is capable of breaking tackles.

The Seahawks will look to keep San Francisco honest by using the run, but it might also be a good idea to design runs for Russell Wilson as the Offense needs to stay in third and manageable situations if they are to sustain drives. Otherwise, the 49ers can pin back their ears on obvious passing downs and pressure Wilson, while they have also shown good discipline to contain running Quarter Backs as shown against Cam Newton last week.

Wilson is likely to be not have Percy Harvin in the Receiver position to give him another threat, but there is enough in their passing game to think they can get the ball downfield against a Secondary that has been burnt through the air.

Another factor the Seahawks will look to employ is their home field advantage which has bamboozled the 49ers the last two times they have visited here. The crowd is loud, while the Seattle Defense is probably the best one in the NFL and these are conditions that Colin Kaepernick will have to deal with if the 49ers are to return to the Super Bowl for the second season in succession.

To Kaepernick's defence, he will have a lot more weapons to go against the Seattle 'Legion of Boom' this time as he has Michael Crabtree and a healthy Vernon Davis to complement Anquan Boldin, but that doesn't necessarily mean he will find a way to move the chains throughout the game.

Like Seattle, San Francisco begin by trying to run the ball but the Seahawks Defense has been absolutely bruising against those attacks in recent games. There were a couple of times when teams had success moving the ball on the ground, but I am not sure Frank Gore will get too much joy against a Defense that has allowed 2.4 yards per carry over their last three games.

Again, like Seattle, San Francisco are likely to design more running plays for Colin Kaepernick at the Quarter Back position to keep the Offense in third and manageable situations. If you think San Francisco have a decent pass rush, Seattle's is as fierce as any in the NFL and they will give this Offensive Line a lot of problems in late down and long distance if the 49ers can't keep the Offense in a good position.

Kaepernick may have his full complement of weapons back, but the Seattle Secondary is physical and have the ability to make plays under pressure so it will be a tough test for the Quarter Back to make the plays with his arm. I do think he will have some success, but Kaepernick has to make the right decisions too as turnovers have been one of the main problems in the last two games here which has seen the game get out of hand. At home, Seattle have the highest turnover differential in the NFL so you know they are capable of forcing Interceptions which could be critical for their chances to make it back to the big game.

So what can you say about this game that you wouldn't have read already? We all know it is a fierce rivalry that has been best described as the 'new Pittsburgh-Baltimore' of the NFL and I expect it to be as physical and bruising as those Steelers-Ravens games have been over the years.

The two teams are almost mirror images of one another with the same basic principle of tough Defense and using the ground and pound when they have the ball on Offense. What has made a difference in their games has been home field advantage and it is a big mental obstacle for the 49ers to overcome after taking back to back heavy losses in visits to Seattle.

Colin Kaepernick does have more weapons at his disposal, but this physical Defense of the Seahawks matches up well against them and I think turnovers are more likely to come from the 49ers which could prove to be the difference at the end of the game.

It is the turnovers that have killed the 49ers in their last two visits to Seattle and the loud crowd could help force some more to win the game for the home team and help them cover the spread in this one.

The Seahawks have been a strong home favourite to back in recent years and are 24-10 against the spread in that spot since 2007, but they do have to reverse the fact that the underdog is 9-4 against the spread in the last 13 NFC Conference Championship Games. In fact, the underdog has won the last 4 NFC Championship Games, but the 'sharp' money is backing the Seahawks and I do think they are going to prove a little too good for a San Francisco team that is playing their third road game in three weeks.

MY PICKS: New England Patriots + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Divisional Round: 1-3, - 4 Units
Wild Card Round: 2-2, - 0.10 Units
Week 17: 7-1, + 10.68 Units
Week 16: 4-6, - 4.23 Units
Week 15: 2-6, - 5.32 Units
Week 14: 5-4, + 0.54 Units
Week 13: 6-4-1, + 3.65 Units
Week 12: 6-4, + 1.43 Units
Week 11: 6-2, + 7.59 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.86 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units

Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units

Season 2013: 84-69-2, + 20.53 Units

Season 2012: - 4.78 Units