College Football Week 14 Picks 2024 (Saturday 30th November)

The final week of the regular season could still provide plenty of chaos and there are a number of Head Coaches who believe their teams should be given an opportunity to try and win a National Championship.

Ultimately it is about focus with Week 14 seeing a number of big games before we get into the Conference Championship Games and then the final College Football Playoff Rankings are released.

Michigan Wolverines @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: A decade has passed since the oddsmakers have set a spread for this rivalry game at the same kind of number that we are seeing in Week 14 of the College Football season.

In previous years with the smaller College Football Playoff field, the Ohio State Buckeyes (10-1) may have felt they need to impress the Committee with a big win, but the twelve team format should mean the Buckeyes are in a pretty secure position. They hold wins over the likes of Penn State and Indiana, two teams inside the top ten of the latest Playoff Rankings that were released and the Buckeyes may yet be targeting a Bye through the First Round of the post-season by winning this final regular season game and then the Big Ten Championship Game.

They cannot afford to overlook the Michigan Wolverines (6-5), even if this season has been one of serious underachievement.

The defending Champions were always going to struggle with their starting Quarter Back and Head Coach leaving for the NFL, but they have earned a win in Week 13 which has made Michigan Bowl eligible. They recently gave the then unbeaten Indiana Hoosiers plenty to think about in a narrow loss, but the Wolverines will also know that the Ohio State Buckeyes are amongst the best teams in the nation and one that crushed the aforementioned Hoosiers while looking to run up the score.

That same mentality could make this a very tough final road game of the season for the Wolverines, although the money has come down on the side of the underdog and forced the spread below a key number.

Moving the ball is going to be tough to do with any kind of consistency for the Michigan Wolverines- they will want to run the ball and try and ease any pressure building up on Davis Warren at Quarter Back, but this Buckeyes Defensive Line have played with real intensity against the run and will feel they can bully Michigan at the Line of Scrimmage.

Davis Warren has at least been offered some time when he has stepped back to throw the ball, although being afforded the same against the Buckeyes pass rush will be a test for the Wolverines Offensive Line. Even if Warren does have a time to survey the field, the Ohio State Secondary have made it their business to close down the holes that may open up and they can stall drives with some big plays from the Defensive Backs.

If the Buckeyes feel they can clamp down on the run, the same can be said for the Michigan Defensive Line and that is going to be a key part of this game. If the Wolverines can at least keep the Buckeyes in third and long spots, there is a feeling they can at least keep things competitive on the scoreboard, but this Ohio State Offensive Line have been more effective at driving open running lanes than their counterparts.

Veteran Quarter Back Will Howard has been playing efficiently in recent games and he should be able to produce some big time throws against this Michigan Secondary. He should have time in the pocket to make his plays, although Howard will just have to be aware of the Interceptions that the Wolverines have been able to pick up of late and that could be the key to how this spread will end up setting.

This is a very high mark, make no mistake about that, but the Buckeyes look to be a team that is playing with the motivation to remind the rest of the College Football National Championship contenders that they remain the team to beat. Winning in Week 14 will give the Buckeyes a chance to make amends for the narrow loss to the Oregon Ducks, the sole loss in the regular season, and Head Coach Ryan Day has to be massively motivated to finally get the better of this rival.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ USC Trojans Pick: The move into the Big Ten Conference has worked for one former Pac-12 team, Oregon, but it has been a tough learning season for the USC Trojans (6-5). They are just 4-5 within the Conference, but this is a chance to finish the season on a high with the Trojans looking to play spoiler for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (10-1) who have been Ranked at Number 5 in the latest Playoff Rankings.

One of the reasons for the Fighting Irish to have earned such a high Ranking is that to many teams have suffered multiple losses and another for Notre Dame will be much harder to shake off without a Conference Championship Game to be played.

Another reason is that the Fighting Irish have bounced back from their upset by dominating teams and each of their last six wins have been by at least 18 point margins. Producing another big win on the road is not likely going to lead to a Bye through the First Round of the Playoffs, but Notre Dame would receive a home game in the First Round with a big victory and would be considered a very dangerous runner.

Everything will begin up front for the Fighting Irish who have a dominant Offensive Line that have opened up massive holes in the running game. This has allowed the entire playbook to be used and Notre Dame have been able to run up the score once they have gotten on top of opponents.

It is going to be very tough for the USC Defensive Line to have a big impact on the game, even if confidence has been restored somewhat with three wins in four games. Those have been against teams that would be considered much weaker than Notre Dame and so this could potentially develop into a tough day in the office for the Trojans as they round out the regular season.

Riley Leonard has had a pretty comfortable job as Quarter Back for the Fighting Irish and he has not been tasked with winning games himself. Despite that, he has shown efficient performances from the position, while also able to move the ball with his legs, and that has helped the Fighting Irish produce plenty of balance in their play-calling, making it very difficult to stop them with any consistency.

The record may not be the best, but the USC Trojans have been competitive even in defeats and they do have an Offensive unit that will be confident that they can have an impact in this game. However, there is little doubt that the Trojans are facing one of the better Defensive units they would have seen in 2024 and the Offensive Line may not be able to establish the run with the kind of consistency that they have enjoyed in recent games.

Jayden Maiava has taken over at Quarter Back and the Trojans will have to show some patience with him, especially as he will be facing a Defensive unit that is stronger than the Nebraska and UCLA units that Maiava has faced.

Inexperience could mean Jayden Maiava is perhaps not as sure where the Notre Dame pass rush pressure is coming from, especially when the Trojans are stuck in third and long spots, and he will have to be very aware of the turnovers that the Fighting Irish Defensive Backs have been creating.

USC will take chances with nothing really to lose and that will make them dangerous.

However, the Fighting Irish look a team playing with momentum and confidence and ultimately that may show up in this big Week 14 game as they look to secure their place in the College Football Playoff. A couple of turnovers can be created to really turn this game in their favour and Notre Dame can secure a win by double digits yet again before awaiting their final Playoff Ranking.

Purdue Boilermakers @ Indiana Hoosiers Pick: The blowout loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes ended the Indiana Hoosiers (10-1) unbeaten record, but they have been given plenty of respect by the College Football Playoff Committee having been handed the Number 10 Ranking.

The Hoosiers are not expected to be involved in the Big Ten Championship Game after that loss to the Buckeyes, but a win in Week 14 should mean Indiana have done enough to be invited into the Playoff and a chance to make amends.

Last up in the regular season is a home game against the Purdue Boilermakers (1-10) who have lost all eight Conference games played in a very disappointing season. Losing is one thing, but Purdue have been blown out by the top three teams in the Big Ten and now face the fourth best team in the Conference.

You have to wonder how the Boilermakers are going to be able to move the ball with any kind of consistency in this Week 14 game- the Offensive Line have had issues establishing the run all season, and now they have to face a Hoosiers Defensive Line that still holds strong numbers even after the defeat to the Buckeyes.

Playing from behind the chains has allowed teams to bring a strong pass rush which has managed to get through to Hudson Card at Quarter Back, which in turn has made it very difficult to make plays down the field. He is an experienced player at Quarter Back, but Card cannot expect to have a lot of time to use that in this game against the Hoosiers and there has to be a concern about turning the ball over under some pressure.

Games against Michigan State, Michigan and Ohio State have made life very difficult for an Indiana Offensive unit that have played well for much of the 2024 season. However, this is a considerable step down for Kurtis Rourke and the Hoosiers Offense and that should see them just remind those watching what they are capable of doing and why they have won ten games already.

The Offensive Line has been hit hard in recent games, but they can be the ones doing the bullying up front and should be able to help Indiana establish the run with confidence, which would be a huge boost for Kurtis Rourke at Quarter Back.

This is also an opportunity for Kurtis Rourke to show that he is firmly over the thumb injury that saw him miss a game before returning against the Spartans. His performances against some of the stronger Defensive units in the Big Ten have perhaps not been as good as hoped, but Rourke should have a cleaner pocket in this game with the Boilermakers and there are holes to exploit in this Secondary.

Motivation of making the top twelve in the College Football Playoff is one factor, but the Indiana Hoosiers will be looking to make a statement against a rival that has beaten them three times in a row. In fact the Hoosiers have won one of their last six against Purdue and they can double that here with a big win as they look to match the margin of victory that the likes of Oregon, Penn State and Ohio State have produced against the Boilermakers over the last several weeks.

Texas Longhorns @ Texas A&M Aggies Pick: They had been the surprising contender in the SEC moving into November, but two losses in three games have just pushed Texas A&M Aggies (8-3) down the Rankings. The very disappointing defeat to the Auburn Tigers in Week 13 has seen the Aggies fall to Number 20 in the College Football Playoff Rankings and a lot needs to go right for the team if they are going to be invited into the top twelve.

First up is finding a way to beat this historical rival with the rivalry renewed now Texas A&M and the Texas Longhorns (10-1) are playing in the SEC together. The latter are Number 3 in the College Football Rankings and winning this game will move them into the SEC Championship Game and with an opportunity to avenge the one and only loss suffered in 2024.

Quinn Ewers is set to get the call at Quarter Back, despite picking up an injury last week and even though some fans may believe that Arch Manning gives them the best chance to win the National Championship.

The Longhorns have not been the most convincing in their four game winning run since losing to the Georgia Bulldogs, but they have been winning games. They certainly look to be facing the Texas A&M Aggies at a good time with the Longhorns Offensive Line likely going to take advantage of what looks to be a Defensive Line that has worn down towards the end of a long regular season.

Playing in front of the chains will give Quinn Ewers a big chance to keep this Texas Offense motoring and he will also have success throwing the ball against the Aggies Secondary. Credit has to be given to Texas A&M for making some plays against the pass, but they have allowed some big plays and a limited pass rush has not been able to do put any pressure on the opposition Quarter Back.

Texas are playing in a hostile environment, but this is a team that has been inspired in such settings and not one that has wilted.

Dual-threat Quarter Back Marcel Reed has to be a big factor in this game if the Aggies are going to earn the upset, but he will need a bit more help from the Offensive Line. They have not really been able to establish the run as they would have liked this month and the Aggies Offensive Line cannot expect a lot of room against this Texas Defensive Line.

This means the Reed arm is going to be more important than his legs, but there has to be a concern that he will be under immense pressure from the Texas pass rush if the Aggies are not able to run the ball efficiently. Playing from behind the chains would expose the issues that Texas A&M have had in pass protection and Marcel Reed cannot expect to have the same spaces to attack in this Texas Secondary as he may have enjoyed in recent games.

Pressure up front has put Marcel Reed in a tough spot and it has led to one or two mistakes, which is something that Texas have thrived upon creating.

Any turnover edge is going to give the road team that edge and this renewed rivalry is one that the Texas Longhorns can win and make sure they head to the SEC Championship Game with the momentum that they will hope could see them turn around the defeat to the Georgia Bulldogs, who are the likely opponent.

With the spread just below a couple of key numbers, Texas can come through with another important road win and they can cover here.

MY PICKS: Ohio State Buckeyes - 19.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Indiana Hoosiers - 29 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Texas Longhorns - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Louisville Cardinals - 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Duke Blue Devils - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

SMU Mustangs - 13 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Miami Hurricanes - 11 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 13: 4-4, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 12: 3-6, - 3.23 Units (9 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)

Week 11: 1-5, - 4.15 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.17% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 4.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 57.86% Yield)

Week 9: 4-2, + 1.82 Units (6 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)

Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)

Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)

Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)

Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

NFL Week 13 Picks 2024 (Thursday 28th November-Monday 2nd December)

Thanksgiving Day Weekend is here and that means the ambitions of teams will begin to clear up.

There are a host of teams that may be thinking ahead to finishing with a high NFL Draft Pick and beginning to turn around their franchises, even if Head Coaches refuse to entertain the idea of tanking. Ultimately they are being paid to win NFL games, even if those above them would prefer to finish with enough losses to secure a top Draft Pick and that kind of split is hard to balance up.

We have seen the New York Giants players unafraid of voicing their opinions having seen Daniel Jones dropped as the starting Quarter Back and later released- to then follow that up by picking the third string Quarter Back to take over as the starter has made it clear that the Giants are not serious about winning games and that is not going to go down very well with the locker room.

Some teams are looking ahead to the future and picking a player that can change their fortunes, but for many teams the focus is on trying to earn a Playoff spot and then making a real run towards the Super Bowl.

There looks to be some stand out teams, but we are only just heading into December during Week 13 and the schedules are designed in a way where the bigger games are played in the remaining weeks of the regular season. Things could quickly unravel for teams who look good, while there always seems to be one or two teams that can pick up a lot of momentum in the final month of the regular season and take that into the post-season where they can upset some of the higher Seeds.

Identifying those potential teams is not easy, but the Miami Dolphins are looking pretty good and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been a team used to making late runs that have led to the Playoffs too.

Week 13 brings a number of primetime games with three on Thanksgiving Day and then the Black Friday game before heading into the weekend.

It has been a tough three weeks for the NFL Picks, although the last two weeks have been more frustrating than anything else.

On another occasion Week 12 would have ended with a 4-2 record, but the Minnesota Vikings blew a huge lead in Chicago and the Arizona Cardinals made a couple of key mistakes in losing in Seattle when they looked to be in a position to win.

Things like this happen, but it is a bit annoying off the back of a couple of rough weeks and the hope is tha the bounce of the ball is a bit more favourable over the next few days to get things turned back around.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Pick: Seven defeats in a row on Thanksgiving Day might be hard to swallow, especially as the Detroit Lions (10-1) host the first game of the holiday, but this current team is all about breaking new ground. Nine wins in a row have kept them in front of the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers in the loaded NFC North and many feel Detroit might be the best team in the NFL.

Next up is a Divisional showdown with the Chicago Bears (4-7) who have actually handed three of the last seven Thanksgiving Day defeats to the Detroit Lions.

However, the Bears have dropped five games in a row to fall out of contention within the Division, although they could easily have won three of those. The stunning Hail Mary loss to the Washington Commanders has sparked the losing run, but the Bears also have had a blocked Field Goal prevent them from beating the Green Bay Packers and suffered an Overtime loss in Week 12 against the Minnesota Vikings.

At 7-5, the Bears might have been arriving in Detroit filled with confidence, but losing five straight means this is very much a learning season for Caleb Williams at Quarter Back. He had been struggling, but performed well in the last two games against Divisional rivals and that may at least mean he can play with some belief when opening up Thanksgiving Day on the road.

He will have to be aware of the huge challenge in front of him against this Detroit Defensive unit which has been playing with a lot of energy and intensity for three straight weeks. They were the reason that the Lions were able to overcome the Houston Texans in Week 10 thanks to some big second half turnovers and the Lions Defense has allowed just 12 points in their last couple of wins over the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts.

Stepping up their play from the front, the Lions Defensive Line have made it very tough to run the ball against them and that is going to be problematic for Caleb Williams and the Bears. With an Offensive Line struggling in pass protection, the run has been key to pushing the Chicago Bears into third and manageable spots on the field and subsequently enabled Williams to not have to hold onto the ball for too long.

He does have some veteran Receivers to help out, but Caleb Williams will find it tough to allow routes to develop whenever the Bears are playing from behind the chains. Even without Aidan Hutchinson, the Lions can generate some pressure up front and Williams has made a couple of rookie mistakes in taking Sacks when he should be getting rid of the ball to fight in another Down.

Credit has to be given to the rookie Quarter Back for at least avoiding big mistakes in the passing game, but he will have to be aware of the danger of throwing into this Detroit Secondary when they are expecting the pass to be made. Interceptions could be key to turning this game completely in favour of the Lions, especially if the Bears Defensive unit cannot pick up their own level of play.

They have been involved in some competitive losses recently, but the Bears are giving up almost 400 yards of Offense in recent defeats and that is significantly higher than their early season performances. Now they have to face a Detroit team that has a hugely balanced Offense and that is going to make it very difficult for the Chicago Bears to make stops.

A one-two punch out of the backfield sets everything up for the Lions, although former Bears Running Back David Montgomery could potentially miss out. Even if he cannot go, Jahmyr Gibbs has shown he is more than capable of breaking out a big run or two and is also offering a real threat in the passing game.

The Chicago Secondary has just found it tough to stop teams as they have stepped up their level of competition and it is very likely that Jared Goff is able to turn the Detroit fortunes around on Thanksgiving Day. He is well protected, which means having plenty of time to let his Receivers break open, and Goff has bounced back from his horrific primetime peformance against the Houston Texans.

Playing at home has been very productive for the Quarter Back and Jared Goff has been able to produce cleaner performances here and he should be able to lead the Lions up and down the field.

With the spread where it is, the backdoor cover will certainly be open for the Chicago Bears.

However, the feeling is that the Lions will have heard plenty about their losing run on Thanksgiving Day and they will be motivated to show the nation how far they have come in the last couple of years. The Bears have a solid recent record in this Stadium on Thanksgiving Day, and they have been competitive against the other two top NFC North teams, but the Bears were blown out in their last road game against Arizona and they may find this Detroit Offensive unit too much to handle in the first of three games on Turkey Day.

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: When the schedule makers set this game for Thanksgiving Day, the hope would have been that it would be one between two contenders in the NFC East. Instead, the Dallas Cowboys (4-7) and New York Giants (2-9) have vastly underachieved and the latter are perhaps looking to finish the season with the Number 1 Draft Pick.

After deciding to bench Daniel Jones at Quarter Back, who was then later released, the decision to go with the third string QB Tommy DeVito rather than Drew Lock, who has been the backup to Jones all season, has made it pretty clear what the ownership may want. Some of the Giants players have voiced their frustration about the direction being taken by the team, while Head Coach Brian Daboll will do well to retain his job going into 2025.

Six losses in a row have sunk the Giants and there will be some real questions being asked as to why they spent so much money on extending Daniel Jones' contract and allowing Saquon Barkley to leave. They were miserable in Week 12 when being blown out by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and this is a short week to get things right.

At least one positive is that New York are facing a Dallas Cowboys team that has also been in the midst of a miserable run, albeit one that was snapped with the win over the Washington Commanders last time out. Prior to that, the Cowboys had lost five in a row and they will need another big effort from the Special Teams unit to make up for what has been a stagnant Offense without Dak Prescott behind Center.

Cooper Rush has struggled and the Offensive Line has been banged up, so the Cowboys have not been able to rely on a consistent running game to help out. There is an opportunity to have more success on the ground against this New York Defensive Line, especially if players begin to dial it in, but it looks like being another inconsistent night in the office on this side of the ball.

CeeDee Lamb is playing through an injury, while Cooper Rush will receive a significant boost if Jake Ferguson is back on Thanksgiving Day. Brandin Cooks could also be back, which should give the backup Quarter Back an opportunity to at least make some positive plays against this Giants Secondary.

Much like the Cowboys, the New York Giants are going to want to lean on their Offensive Line to open up running lanes for Tyrone Tracy. This should be a good match up for Tracy, although he might not have the amount of carries you would expect after another Fumble, and Tommy DeVito is going to be asked to use his legs to just move away from the Dallas pass rush pressure and keep the Giants in front of the chains.

Teams have been able to run the ball effectively against the Dallas Defensive Line so it looks the clear game plan to use for the Giants, which should in turn give DeVito a bit more time to throw the ball from third and manageable spots. The Quarter Back did not have his best game last week in the blowout loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but this may be an 'easier' spot for DeVito, even if Trevon Diggs is back for the Cowboys.

It looks a tough game to call with both the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys significantly underperforming this season and with backup Quarter Backs leading the teams out. The Cowboys have dominated this Divisional rival of late with seven straight wins in the series, but Cooper Rush is hard to trust to cover as a favourite of more than a Field Goal.

At the same time, the Giants organisation is making it pretty clear that their focus has become tanking the season and you do have to wonder how players react to that. They did not show up in Week 12, but this is a big national televised spot and you have to believe the Giants can run the ball well enough to keep this competitive, even if they are eventually beaten.

There has to be a concern that this could get very ugly, very quickly for the New York Giants and that their opening couple of drives are going to be very important. If they can at least show some pride, the Giants should be able to make enough plays against Cooper Rush to keep this one close on the scoreboard and make use of the points that are being given to them.

Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Barring a huge collapse from the Buffalo Bills, the hope of winning the AFC East is already over for the Miami Dolphins (5-6). However, three wins in a row have just pulled this team back into the mix for a Wild Card spot in the Playoffs and that has to be the target for Miami the rest of the way, especially if they can keep their key players healthy.

Wins over the Los Angeles Rams, Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots have built momentum, but none of those teams are above 0.500 for the season as we move into Week 13 of the regular season.

With that in mind, the Dolphins have to know there is a significant challenge coming up for them when travelling to face the Green Bay Packers (8-3) who are very much on course to return to the post-season. There is still a hope that the Packers can move past either the Detroit Lions or Minnesota Vikings or both in the NFC North, and Green Bay are certainly going to be feeling pretty good about where they are at right now after beating the San Francisco 49ers.

There has been a real balance to the way they have been performing Offensively with Josh Jacobs running the ball effectively and Jordan Love continuing to show his development and confidence at Quarter Back. It was the Jacobs power-running that helped the Packers crush the 49ers in Week 12 and also alleviated any pressure that Jordan Love has been feeling, which has led to some big mistakes in the passing game.

Those mistakes have not dented Love's confidence, but playing a clean game against the 49ers will just serve as a reminder that Green Bay can go extremely far if they are able to avoid turnovers.

Green Bay can lean on the Offensive Line in this final game on Thanksgiving Day and they should be able to have some success behind Josh Jacobs, even if the Dolphins have been playing the run better during this winning run than they have for much of the season. Some of that may have been down to the opponents faced though and the threat of the Jordan Love arm should mean the Dolphins have to be aware of the plays being called, which should also also give Jacobs a chance to continue to run hard behind the O-Line.

It should open up the passing lanes for Jordan Love who had an efficient game on Sunday, rather than one where he was putting up huge numbers. Ultimately it is about winning Football games and Love can back up that performance against this Miami Secondary.

The Packers Offensive Line has given Jordan Love time in the pocket, which is only aided by being able to run the ball and playing from third and manageable spots, while a cold, snowy evening in Green Bay gives the team another edge.

Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins are downplaying the impact of the likely conditions, but there is no doubting that Miami have something to prove. This Quarter Back and this team have not been as effective in the cold, and Miami have also struggled when playing against stronger teams in the NFL so the challenge in Week 13 is pretty clear.

The Dolphins would love to find a way to establish the run and ease the burden on Tagovailoa at Quarter Back, but they have not run the ball as they would have liked during their three game winning run. In recent history, the Packers Defensive Line have had issues stopping the run, but they have been playing well enough to believe they can contain the Miami rush on Thanksgiving Day and force Tua Tagovailoa to beat them through the air.

Miami do have very strong Receiving options for their Quarter Back to target, but this is a Packers Secondary that have looked very solid all season. Playing out of third and long spots will mean Tagovailoa could be under some pressure from the Packers pass rush, while he will will also have to be aware of the potential for turnovers when throwing against some of these Defensive Backs.

With the expected conditions, running the ball is likely going to be very important and this is where the Green Bay Packers look to have an edge. The Dolphins still have so much to prove when it comes to playing in the cold and when facing stronger teams and that is where the edge has to be given to Green Bay who can find the big plays to pull clear.

Tua Tagovailoa has given the Dolphins a spark since his latest return from a concussion, but it will be tough to extend the three game winning run. He will make some big plays for Miami, but the cold and snow may just highlight the issues that the Dolphins Offensive Line have been having and Green Bay can just ensure they keep the pressure on the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North with a solid win in the nightcap on Thanksgiving Day.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: A new tradition has begun in the NFL with a Black Friday offering and this season it is battle between the top and bottom of the AFC West.

The Kansas City Chiefs (10-1) are hosting the Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) and it is no surprise that they have been set as a heavy favourite. That line is likely going to get wider and wider as we approach kick off with this being the sole NFL offering on Friday, and that can be concerning when you think the Kansas City Chiefs have rarely won games easily this season.

Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are well aware that blowouts in the regular season mean nothing when it comes to the post-season and so they have only done what is needed to keep the wins ticking over. Earning the Number 1 Seed in the Conference is important, but not going to be the be all and end all for the Kansas City Chiefs who are simply using this time to make sure they are ready to fight for another Super Bowl ring.

That was perhaps the reason for the tougher than expected road win at the Carolina Panthers in Week 12, but the Chiefs are back home and can push forward against this struggling Raiders team.

There will be a real battle at the Line of Scrimmage where the Raiders have at least played the run pretty well in recent games. However, the Chiefs Offensive Line have prided themselves on being able to open some big running lanes and the threat of Patrick Mahomes at Quarter Back may mean the Raiders cannot focus on clamping down on the run as they would usually do.

For all of those successes up front, the Secondary has not been able to step up and stop teams from extending drives and we have to expect more of the same on Friday. It is a short week for both teams, but Mahomes performed really well in the win over the Panthers and he can pick up from where he left off against this Raiders team that may be thinking about the end of the season already.

Well the players might be, but Head Coach Antonio Pierce has made it clear that he has no interest in 'tanking' with the Raiders amongst the 'leading' teams for the Number 1 Pick in the Draft.

Like a number of teams struggling, the Raiders have not gotten enough consistency from the Quarter Back position and they would love to be able to take one of the top players coming out of College Football in that position. Gardner Minshew is not going to be ready to go this week, but Aidan O'Connell is back having not appeared in Week 12 and he will get the start ahead of Desmond Ridder.

No matter who was going to get the call, this was always going to be a significant test for the Quarter Back with the Raiders unlikely to be able to establish the run. That means Aidan O'Connell is going to have to perform under some duress, especially considering the Offensive Line struggles in pass protection, and his recovery from a broken thumb will be tested.

After a strong start, the Kansas City Secondary have had some issues when teams have chosen to throw against them in recent games and the Raiders may have some success too. Slowing down Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers will not be easy, but the Chiefs may just get O'Connell thinking at times and that is where they may extract a mistake or two from the Quarter Back.

This is the second Divisional game between these two in a little over a month and the Kansas City Chiefs were 7 point winners on the road to continue their recent dominance of the Las Vegas Raiders.

The Chiefs should not have forgotten being embarrassed at home on Christmas Day last year when set as an 11 point favourite against the Raiders, which should keep the home team focused on Black Friday. Prior to that, the Chiefs had beat Las Vegas pretty convincingly twice in a row and the feeling is that they will be able to secure a solid win at home, while giving the Raiders plenty to think about it when it comes to the direction this franchise is heading.

MY PICKS: Detroit Lions - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

New York Giants + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers - 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Kansas City Chiefs - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)

Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

NFL Week 12 Picks 2024 (Thursday 21st November-Monday 25th November)

There are still some teams waiting to head into their Bye Week, but Thanksgiving Weekend is usually a time when most feel the Playoffs really come looming over the horizon.

It is the same feeling in 2024 with the holidays a few days away and teams are beginning to separate out in both Conferences.

Schedule makers for the NFL have been encouraged to load the back end of the schedules with a lot of Divisional games and that is certainly the case in Week 12, beginning with the AFC North game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns. There are plenty of others to come, including in the NFC East and North and in the AFC West and we will begin to see the Wild Card Race take shape too.

After a strong run for the NFL Picks, Week 11 meant back to back losing weeks, although not nearly as poorly as the Week 10 results.

Bouncing back has to be the ambition in Week 12 ahead of the Thanksgiving Day games, and to make sure the numbers are moving back in a positive direction for the overall season.

Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders Pick: 2024 has proven to be a productive season for the Washington Commanders (7-4) and they are certainly going to be challenging for a Playoff spot. However, it should be noted that they have been a team that have yet to really prove themselves against one of the top teams in the NFL after going down to a defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday Night Football last time out.

That has dropped the Commanders behind the Eagles in the NFC East, but the three games to be played before Washington meet their rivals again gives the team an opportunity to bounce back. It will have felt like a mini-Bye for the Commanders and the players, which should offer an opportunity for some to feel a little healthier, while a full Bye is coming up shortly that will really put the Commanders in a position to focus towards the end of the regular season.

If the Coaching staff were looking at the schedule back in August, this would have looked another challenging Divisional game for Washington, but it has been a season of disappointment for the Dallas Cowboys (3-7). There is an inevitability to big changes being made in the off-season with Head Coach Mike McCarthy almost certainly playing out his contract over the next several weeks.

He has not been helped by the injury picked up by Quarter Back Dak Prescott, although that cannot be an excuse with the Cowboys struggling before he went down. Cooper Rush proved himself to be a capable backup when playing in that role before, but he has not been able to turn the tide on the season and the Cowboys will be heading out on the road having been blown out at home on Monday Night Football by the Houston Texans.

A short week and with a number of banged up players really does not bode well for the Cowboys, who are also playing on Thanksgiving Day as is tradition in a few days time.

The key for the Cowboys will be to keep this game competitive and try and lean on the Offensive Line to open up some running lanes for the team. Unfortunately the Line is banged up and the Running Backs used have not really lived up to their reputation, which may mean it is far from easy for Dallas to have success on the ground like others have managed against the Washington Defensive Line.

Playing closer to the Line of Scrimmage and daring Cooper Rush to beat them with his arm will be the plan for Head Coach Dan Quinn, who earned the Washington top Coaching role thanks to his performance as the Cowboys Defensive Co-Ordinator in recent years. Dan Quinn will be well aware of the strengths and weaknesses of Quarter Back Cooper Rush, as well as a number of the other players on the Dallas roster and that should certainly mean the Commanders are well prepared.

Playing against this Dallas Defensive unit should also help Jayden Daniels and the Commanders Offensive unit get back on track after a couple of inconsistent efforts against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles. The Quarter Back has been a little banged up, which has perhaps lessened his enthusiasm for running the ball, but having a bit more time to prepare should help Daniels.

He also has both Running Backs available after Brian Robinson Jr returned against the Eagles and the Commanders Offensive Line could get back on track by opening up rushing lanes.

Jayden Daniels has not been at his best since taking a hard shot to the ribs, but it will help so much if he is playing in front of the chains as expected in this game. This makes completions that much easier to come by and the Cowboys have been worn down in games with the team struggling to extend drives and having the Defensive players out on the field for far too long.

In recent seasons Dallas have had the better of this Divisional rival, but the roles look reversed now and Dan Quinn is not expected to show much mercy if his Washington team are in control. Instead he may want his team to just show what the Cowboys have been missing and the Commanders may end up pulling away to become the latest team to crush Dallas.

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears Pick: It looked like the Chicago Bears (4-6) were going to snap their three game losing run and get the 2024 season back on track when driving down the field and lining up for the game-winning Field Goal against the Green Bay Packers. However, it sums up the recent era in Chicago that the Field Goal was blocked and the Bears fell to a fourth defeat in a row, a run that started with the ridiculous Hail Mary given up to the Washington Commanders.

Head Coach Matt Eberflus has heard the disappointment coming out of the stands and his time in charge in Chicago is almost certainly coming to a close.

He is trying to remain focused, but that was a hard defeat to take in Week 11 and the Chicago Bears will do well to recover from the setback. To make matters tougher, they are facing another NFC North rival in the Minnesota Vikings (8-2) who have won three in a row and very much looking like a team that will continue to push the Detroit Lions and exceed all pre-season expectations.

So many believed this would be a transitional season for the Vikings with Sam Darnold at Quarter Back, but it has been a career best year for a player who has bounced around the NFL.

Interceptions have been a little troubling for Sam Darnold during this three game winning run, and he would certainly be given much more help if the Offensive Line can go back to helping the Vikings run the ball as effectively as they had been earlier in the season. There is an opportunity to get back on track against this Bears Defensive Line, which has been the weakness on this side of the ball, and keeping Darnold in third and manageable would make a huge difference for the Quarter Back.

The Bears have not really been generating a fierce pass rush so being in strong positions on the field should allow Sam Darnold to have the time to target some of his big time playmakers down the field. The Chicago Secondary deserves plenty of respect, but shutting down the likes of Justin Jefferson completely is always a tough challenge and the Vikings should have a decent day when they have the ball in hand.

Steering clear of turnovers is important for Minnesota, but doing so will give the Defensive unit every chance of rattling Caleb Williams.

The rookie Quarter Back had a decent game against the Green Bay Packers, but this Minnesota Defense is going to offer plenty of unfamiliar looks which can confuse even those players with a lot of experience behind them. Caleb Williams has not seen a Brian Flores Defensive unit before and he is still operating behind an Offensive Line that has struggled when it comes to pass protection.

Running the ball against the Vikings is not going to be easily achieved and that means Caleb Williams needs time for routes to develop down the field. It will give Brian Flores the opportunity to dial up some fierce pass rushes and those are likely to get home, which in turn could lead to a couple of errant throws from Williams.

Picking those off would really give Minnesota the edge and they might take advantage of the scheduling spot.

Chicago are playing in the early kick off on Thanksgiving Day and it could be tough for the players to recover before that game at the Detroit Lions after losing in the manner they did against the Green Bay Packers. With the Vikings going about their business without much fanfare, Minnesota may make the big Defensive plays to ensure they can win and cover and continue their march towards the Playoffs with a solid win at Soldier Field.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The Buffalo Bills look like a genuine contender to win the Super Bowl, but the rest of the AFC East have been a big disappointment this season.

There were some serious expectations with the New York Jets and the same applies for the Miami Dolphins (4-6), although injuries have been a big factor for the latter and the record they currently hold. Tua Tagovailoa is back at Quarter Back and that has sparked the Dolphins to back to back wins, which have kept them interested in making a run to the post-season as long as they can maintain momentum.

They may only be slightly behind Miami in terms of the record, but that path looks much tougher for the New England Patriots (3-7) who would have been expecting some inconsistencies with a rookie Quarter Back likely taking over from veteran Jacoby Brissett at some point.

Drake Maye has not played badly at all since coming into the lineup, but the Patriots have to expect some ups and downs. They have won two of their last four games, but one or two poor throws have led to Interceptions and that is part and parcel of having a rookie come into what was expected to be a team that struggles again.

Playing against Miami has been tough for the Patriots in recent years after Tom Brady departed, but even with the future Hall of Fame player at Quarter Back, visits to South Florida have been challenging. This will be a tough test for Drake Maye, but he may be able to lean on the Offensive Line to at least help establish the run and put him in the best position to have some success.

Being in front of the chains will give Drake Maye a real opportunity to attack this Dolphins Secondary, although the Quarter Back will have to be aware of the tendencies the Defensive Backs have in turning the ball over.

Running the ball will also give Maye a bit more time to survey the field before making his throws and the Patriots may have some success moving the ball, which could also mean a potential upset is on the cards.

That looks unlikely on the last couple of outings from the Miami Offensive unit, but Tua Tagovailoa will have to respect the levels being produced by the Patriots. The Miami Offensive Line have not been as consistent in helping the team run the ball in recent games as they would have hoped and the Dolphins will have some issues trying to establish the ground game against New England.

If the Dolphins are not able to find much consistency on the ground, Tua Tagovailoa may have a slightly more difficult afternoon throwing the ball than many would expect. The record is not the best, but the Patriots have been competitive on the Defensive side of the ball and recent games have seen the Secondary play well with help from the pass rush up front.

Slowing down the Miami passing game is never going to be easy, but forcing the Quarter Back to play out of third and long will help New England. They can certainly stall a few drives and that may give the Patriots an opportunity to keep this Divisional game competitive and make use of the points being given to them.

Miami should win, but covering becomes harder when you think they have a Thanksgiving Day date with the Green Bay Packers in just four days time. They may not have their very best effort for the Patriots, but instead look to do just enough to win and New England are certainly playing well enough Defensively to avoid any blowout defeat here.

Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders Pick: They snapped an eight game losing run to the Las Vegas Raiders (2-8) earlier this season and the Denver Broncos (6-5) will be looking to back up their very strong victory in Week 11 against the Atlanta Falcons. There is still a hope that the Broncos will surprisingly earn a spot in the Playoffs in Sean Payton's second season as Head Coach in Denver and they are certainly facing the Raiders at a good time.

The loss in Miami last time out means Las Vegas have lost six in a row and the team have been struggling with injury and players being out of form.

While they will be motivated in trying to avoid a sweep at the hands of a Divisional rival, this is not an ideal spot for the Raiders who will be playing on Black Friday at the home of the Kansas City Chiefs. Head Coach Antonio Pierce has to be feeling some pressure during this losing run, especially with new voices like Tom Brady likely to be having an input in future decisions made by the franchise.

Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell have both had playing time at Quarter Back, but neither has really played well enough for the Raiders and this is a team that is likely going to be looking for a new player to come in when the NFL Draft comes around. Neither has been helped by the issues that the Raiders have had when it comes to running the ball and they are not expected to find much room up front against this Denver Defensive Line.

Struggles to run the ball has put a lot of pressure on the Raiders Offensive Line and they have not offered a lot of protection or time for the Quarter Back. This is likely going to be the case against the Denver pass rush and the pressure up front will make it tough to throw the ball against the Broncos Secondary.

Brock Bowers is likely going to step up and offer Gardner Minshew someone to target, but the Quarter Back has been inconsistent and there is every chance he makes one or two poor decisions that ultimately offers Denver some extra possessions.

Unlike the Raiders, the Denver Broncos should be able to have some success on the ground and that is likely going to give Bo Nix an opportunity to build on recent solid performances in his rookie season.

Sean Payton's Offensive mind has certainly helped Bo Nix and he should be able to expose some of the issues the Raiders have had in the Secondary. Avoiding mistakes is one of the big tests for any rookie Quarter Back and in recent games Nix has been able to do that very effectively.

He should be able to make enough plays to keep the chains moving and this could lead to another solid win for the Broncos against this Divisional rival. The spread looks considerable on the road, but Las Vegas look like a team that is struggling to compete and the focus may soon shift to trying to put their best foot forward when facing the Kansas City Chiefs in a few days time.

Denver's Defensive unit can make a couple of big plays for the team to swing things in their favour and the Broncos may just keep their Playoff hopes on track with a solid victory on the road here.

San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Revenge will be on the minds of the Green Bay Packers (7-3) after narrowly being beaten by the San Francisco 49ers (5-5) in the NFL Playoffs at the end of the 2023 season. They looked to be in control of that game before the late defeat, but that game was played at the home of San Francisco and this time Green Bay have home advantage.

A late blocked Field Goal helped the Packers continue their dominance of NFC North rivals Chicago Bears, but they are still looking up at the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings despite a healthy seven wins on the board. Winning the Division will be challenging considering what we have seen from the Lions, but the Green Bay Packers are firmly on the march towards a post-season spot.

They can really begin to knock off some of their rivals if Green Bay are able to get the better of the 49ers, especially after San Francisco dropped back to 0.500 after a surprising home loss to the Seattle Seahawks.

Adding to the disappointment during the week was the news that Nick Bosa has been ruled out for this Week 12 game having finished the game last week watching on from the sidelines. Even worse, San Francisco have announced that starting Quarter Back Brock Purdy will be missing on Sunday and that means Brandon Allen will be getting the call.

There is no doubting that Allen will be familiar with the San Francisco system having been the third-string backup for the 49ers last season. However, the Quarter Back has not started a game in the NFL since 2021, while a 2-7 record as a starter is not exactly going to inspire a lot of confidence.

Brandon Allen does benefit from playing with Christian McCaffrey and this San Francisco Offensive Line and there is every chance that the 49ers will at least establish the run and keep their backup Quarter Back in front of the chains. Earlier in the season there were signs that the Packers would be better at dealing with the run, but they are still giving up healthy yardage on the ground and McCaffrey should have a decent game.

Of course, the Packers may not have as much respect for the passing game as they would if Brock Purdy was playing behind Center. It may mean creeping up to the Line of Scrimmage to make a real effort to stop the run and force Brandon Allen to beat them through the air, although San Francisco are likely to counter with some eye candy distractions behind the Offensive Line to see if they can establish the run in other ways.

The Quarter Back is not expected to hold onto the ball for too long and there are some solid playmakers around him, which should give the 49ers a chance to keep the chains moving. Staying with the Packers is key though as no one would really want to put the burden of play on the shoulders of Brandon Allen.

And the 49ers do have a Defensive unit that can at least step up and help their backup Quarter Back by putting the clamps down on the powerful Green Bay Offense run by Jordan Love.

Much of the Packers successes have come behind the Offensive Line and having Josh Jacobs churn out some big yards on the ground, although stopping the run has been something that the 49ers have long prided themselves on. It is strength versus strength along the Line of Scrimmage in this Week 12 game, but Green Bay will not shy away from handing the ball off and making sure they are playing out of third and manageable situations at the very least.

In their Playoff meeting, the Packers did have success with Aaron Jones when it came to running the ball so they have to believe that Josh Jacobs can do the same.

The Offensive Line have enjoyed run blocking, but have also been effective at giving Jordan Love time to make his plays down the field. Without Nick Bosa, San Francisco may not be able to rattle the Quarter Back and the improving play of the Secondary may be exploited if there is time to make the throws against them.

Green Bay are still hoping that one or two players can really come out of the pack in the Receiving corps and really offer Jordan Love a consistent threat through the remainder of the regular season and Playoffs. Christian Watson was back in the thick of things last week, but has to show more consistency if he is going to become the main threat in the passing game, while Jordan Love will be keen to just clear up some of his own Interceptions.

Doing that should give Jordan Love an opportunity to get one over on the San Francisco 49ers, especially with Brandon Allen at Quarter Back for the road team. Some teams have been able to step up and rally around their backup, but the Packers look strong enough Offensively to force Allen to have to play some big plays and that could see things unravel.

The Packers do play on Thanksgiving Day, which could be a potential distraction in some circumstances- however, there has been a real rivalry with the 49ers in recent season with plenty of Playoff games between the teams and that should mean the home team are focused and looking for a big win that could serve as an important tie-breaker when the Wild Card positions are confirmed later this season.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: The Arizona Cardinals (6-4) may have enjoyed their Bye Week as they return in Week 12 with their lead in the NFC West still in place. They can thank rivals Seattle Seahawks (5-5) for that having upset the San Francisco 49ers to drop the three teams behind the Cardinals to the same record.

Where the Arizona Cardinals have a real edge over their rivals within the NFC West is that they are 2-0 in Divisional games, while both Seattle and San Francisco have losing records in those games. The Los Angeles Rams are 2-1, but a win here for the Arizona Cardinals could be a huge step towards the post-season in what has been a surprising year for the team.

Four straight wins have given the team the lead in the NFC West, but also bolstered confidence and there is a lot to like about this Arizona team.

Patience with Head Coach Jonathan Gannon has been key after the 4-13 record last season, but even more important has been the return to full health of Quarter Back Kyler Murray. He is on course for his most starts in a single season since 2021 and Murray would have been under some pressure at the start of the 2024 season having compiled a 6-13 record in his previous nineteen starts.

Kyler Murray has matched those wins over the previous two seasons through just ten games in 2024 and the Offensive unit are rolling.

Running the ball with someone like Murray at Quarter Back will always be an important part of the game plan and James Connor deserves a lot of respect for the level he has been producing in Arizona. The Seahawks did play the run pretty well against San Francisco last week, but overall it has been a struggle for them and the dual-threat from Kyler Murray has been complemented by the power of Connor at Running Back.

Any time a team can play out of third and manageable situations is going to be a huge boost and the Cardinals have been doing that very often during their four game winning run. Kyler Murray has been given some serious weapons in the passing game, which he has used very effectively thanks to the play-action opening things up down the field.

Everything begins from the run for the Arizona Cardinals, but that has been an issue for the Seattle Seahawks in recent games. They are not being helped by injuries on the Offensive Line and with a sudden retirement of Connor Williams at Center, but the Seahawks are facing an Arizona Defensive Line that is not always the best at stopping the run.

Helping the Cardinals is the fact that they are playing with a scoreboard lead and so teams have to step back and throw the ball, although Geno Smith has shown he can produce under pressure when leading the Seahawks to a win last week at San Francisco. The Quarter Back is expected to have some success with the quality of Receivers that he is targeting, but Smith will just have to look out for the players stepping in front of passes.

While the Cardinals have only picked off five passes this season, it should be noted that they have only allowed eleven Touchdown passes so this is going to be a significant test for Seattle out of an upset. Being at home is certainly going to help, but the team are just 2-4 here this season and there is every chance that the Arizona Cardinals can come out of their Bye Week and secure an important victory.

Both teams will have some successes, but the balance of the Arizona Offensive unit may just help them come out on top and maintain their unbeaten record within the NFC West. With the 49ers playing a tough game on the road and the Los Angeles Rams hosting the Philadelphia Eagles, this could be a big week for the Cardinals and they may just come out on top in a back and forth game.

MY PICKS: Washington Commanders - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Minnesota Vikings - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

New England Patriots + 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Denver Broncos - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Arizona Cardinals - 1 Point @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

College Football Week 13 Picks 2024 (Saturday 23rd November)

There may be an expanded College Football Playoff format in place at the end of this season, but the tougher schedules that teams have chosen to face has really kept the end of the regular season hugely exciting for fans of the sport.

The SEC are expected to have as many as five teams taking part in the twelve team Playoff, but a number of those leading the way have already been beaten twice.

What does that mean? Well, some Head Coaches have made it clear that any SEC team that has two losses on the schedule may actually be better off if they miss the Championship Game.

Winning that would mean a top four Seed and a Bye through the First Round, but a third defeat would likely mean elimination, even if that is in the Championship Game, and so there is a real belief that the better option would be to win out in the regular season and hope to miss out. Until the change is made to perhaps give the two teams in any Championship Game an edge over those that miss out, you can imagine this is a situation that will come up again and so the first change to be made is to reorganise Conferences into Divisions.

That is for another season and for now teams are going into the final two weeks of the regular season hoping to do enough to be invited into the new College Football Playoff bracket. There are some big games for the likes of the Indiana Hoosiers, who visit the Ohio State Buckeyes, while the top of the Big 12 Conference could have the Championship Game set this weekend.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Army Black Knights Pick: The expanded College Football Playoff was always going to offer a bit more room for a team like the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-1) to join eleven other teams chasing the National Championship. Despite an upset earlier this season, the Fighting Irish are 6th in the latest Playoff Rankings that have been released and Notre Dame are likely to be one of the teams selected, albeit without a Bye Week, as long as they win out in the regular season.

There is no Championship Game that could bolster the resume for Notre Dame and there is little doubt that they have not exactly faced the top teams in College Football. Even some of the better looking wins have been weakened by other upsets, but the Fighting Irish are doing what they need to.

In Week 13 they are hosting an unbeaten Army Black Knights (9-0) team that will put an unbeaten record on the line having secured a spot in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game against Tulane. They moved up into 19th place in the College Football Rankings, but Army would make a considerable move and likely into the top twelve places if they find a way to upset Notre Dame at Yankees Stadium.

This feels like a 'prove it' moment for the Black Knights who have not exactly had a lot of top wins through their unbeaten run, which has contributed to a relatively low Ranking considering they have yet to lose.

The game plan won't take much to work out with the Black Knights looking to run, run and run some more when they have the ball in their hand. This is going to be the toughest Defensive Line that Army would have faced all season and you have to believe that the Bye Week to prepare for this game can only aid the Black Knights further as they look to not only establish the run, but to make sure this is a huge part of their day in New York.

Bryson Daily has had almost double the amount of yardage on the ground as he has throwing the ball from Quarter Back, but everything depends on the Line of Scrimmage and whether the Black Knights can push the Notre Dame Defensive Line out of position or give them a scheme that they do not recognise.

It is going to be a tough ask for Army all the same and containing this Notre Dame Offensive unit will be plenty challenging too.

Eight wins in a row have almost erased that painful loss to the Northern Illinois Huskies, but the Fighting Irish cannot afford another slip. They have scored at least 28 points in each win since scoring just 14 against the Huskies, and there is a fine balance to the play-calling on the Offensive side of the ball.

Much like when Army have the ball, the Line of Scrimmage is going to be all-important when Notre Dame are in position and the test for the Black Knights Defensive Line in stopping the run will surpass any they have faced this season. The Fighting Irish have ripped open some big gains on the ground and the talent edge is with Notre Dame, which should show up here.

Riley Leonard has offered some dual-threat out of the Quarter Back position, although he is much more likely to build up the yardage behind his arm rather than his legs.

What has to be expected from this game is that Leonard and the Notre Dame passing game should be able to exploit some of the holes in the Army Secondary. That will be much more difficult for Bryson Daily at Quarter Back for Army, and that balance should allow Notre Dame to push past this unbeaten opponent in the grand setting of Yankees Stadium.

Notre Dame have been impressing the Playoff Committee by now only winning games, but by doing so by wide margins. That has also made them a very productive favourite to back when it comes to the spread since that upset loss to the Huskies and the Fighting Irish should put up another impressive victory to maintain their push towards the twelve team Playoff coming up next month.

SMU Mustangs @ Virginia Cavaliers Pick: Seven wins in a row have kept the SMU Mustangs (9-1) on track for a place in the ACC Championship Game in their first season in this Conference.

Head Coach Rhett Lashlee will not be concerning himself with the Number 13 placing given to the SMU Mustangs in the latest Playoff Rankings. Instead he will be reminding his team that winning out and becoming ACC Champion would likely end with a Bye through the First Round of the post-season and especially as the Championship Game is likely going to be against the Miami Hurricanes, who are still at Number 8.

The Mustangs have shown character when needed during their seven game winning run and that is highlighted by some close wins. However, twice in this run the Mustangs have won as the outright underdog and those are the kinds of wins that build confidence and will have players believing in everything the Coaching staff as asking them to do.

Next up is the last road game in the regular season when SMU travel to face the Virginia Cavaliers (5-5) who are still in need of one more win to become Bowl eligible. Last week, the Cavaliers were blown out by the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a game that looked much closer on the scoreboard than it actually was and that means Virginia have lost four of their last five games.

One of those was against the Clemson Tigers and the Cavaliers have also gone down to Louisville and North Carolina.

Turnovers have been an issue and five in the first half against the Fighting Irish meant it was never going to be a competitive outing for Virginia. Head Coach Tony Elliot is hoping his team can be much more careful with the ball as they look to upset the SMU Mustangs hopes for the season, while there is also some real uncertainty about the Quarter Back position.

Whoever lines up at the position will have a good match up against a SMU Secondary that has given up plenty of yards of late. Of course teams have been chasing the Mustangs and have been forced to take to the air, but there is a chance to impress for the Virginia Quarter Back.

However, the problem for the Cavaliers is that they have been one-dimensional Offensively with the team struggling to establish the run. This has really exposed the failings of the Offensive Line when it comes to pass protection, which in turn meant a Quarter Back under pressure has made mistakes when trying to throw down the field.

The Mustangs Defensive Line have played well in recent games and they have been able to put up plenty of hits on the opposition Quarter Back so the match up will feel a decent one for them on this side of the ball.

Of course it is the SMU Offensive unit that has really pushed the momentum behind the team and they will be relying on Kevin Jennings and his playmakers to keep the team on track to reach the ACC Championship Game.

Like so many of the top teams in College Football who are chasing berths in the Playoff, the Mustangs have been pretty well balanced Offensively. This Offensive Line will be able to establish the run against this Cavaliers team that has been struggling of late and that is only going to open things up for Jennings and the passing game to have plenty of success.

The Quarter Back has been well protected, while Virginia have struggled to really make an impact in the backfield having had issues stopping the run. This should allow Kevin Jennings to have another strong game, although he will have to be aware of the Virginia Secondary and their ability to turn the ball over.

Extra possessions can be so important in these games, but the Mustangs are more likely to take advantage of those and the road team may just be able to produce another quality win on the road. In reality, we are down to that point of the season where merely winning is the most important goal for any team to achieve, but the Mustangs will want to remind the Playoff Committee of their abilities.

In Week 12, Notre Dame crushed Virginia at home, but SMU can do enough on the road to perhaps not reach the same margin of victory, but to win by double digits and ensure they cover and maintain their place in line for a spot in the ACC Championship Game.

Mississippi Rebels @ Florida Gators Pick: There are six SEC teams that are still in contention to reach the Championship Game in the Conference and a number of them have two losses on the board already. In previous years the ambition would still have been to reach the Conference Championship Game regardless, but there has been open talk in and around the SEC that it would be better for a two loss team to win out and hope to miss out on playing that Championship Game knowing a loss would almost certainly mean they miss out on the College Football Playoff.

Right now the two loss teams in the SEC have been given plenty of respect with those four being placed between Number 7 and 11 in the latest College Football Rankings. While other Conferences are likely going to be punished for multiple defeats, the SEC are going to be given plenty of respect for the level of competition that their top teams have taken on in the regular season.

The Mississippi Rebels (8-2) are currently the Number 9 team in the College Football Playoff Rankings and Head Coach Lane Kiffin has been speaking about the predicament that a two loss team reaching the SEC Championship Game brings. Instead of being respected for making it that far, losing would likely mean elimination from the Playoff and Kiffin and the Rebels want to be involved.

Of course they cannot let the focus slip knowing a loss in either of their remaining two Conference games would likely mean elimination too.

First up is the Florida Gators (5-5) who have a 3-4 record when playing within the SEC, but who are playing behind an upset of the LSU Tigers.

Motivation for the Gators begins with trying to earn Bowl eligibility first and foremost and this is the final home game of the season, which is going to be a big day for some of the seniors. DJ Lagway being back at Quarter Back was a huge boost for Florida who had been blown out by the Texas Longhorns without him, and there is a confidence about Lagway that has to be respected.

Much of the pressure is going to be on the shoulders of DJ Lagway because it has been very tough to run against the Rebels Defensive Line all season. That does not mean Lagway cannot have success considering the inconsistent play of the Mississippi Secondary, but will also mean that the Quarter Back will need to be well aware of the pass rush pressure that the road team have put together in recent outings.

Sacks have been produced at a high rate and it could lead to a mistake or two from the Florida Quarter Back, which could be key in determining the direction of this game. DJ Lagway has played with a lot of belief and that can be hard to shake, but this Rebels Defensive unit will look to make Florida a little one-dimensional and then further that pressure through the strong Offensive play that Mississippi have been able to produce.

Jaxson Dart has really been playing at a high level at Quarter Back and showing off the experience he has built up in College Football and he has been a key part of the three game winning run that the Rebels are riding. His arm has been very important considering some of the inconsistent performances produced when it comes to running the ball, although the Rebels may have a bit more success against this Florida Defensive Line.

More exciting for the fans of the Quarter Back is seeing some of the big yards that the Gators have allowed through the air in recent games and Jaxson Dart is playing well enough to capitalise. There is every chance that Tre Harris is also going to be back on the field after missing the three game winning run through injury and the Wide Receiver is close to cracking the 1000 Receiving mark despite the run of absences.

The Rebels Offensive Line have been stronger in pass protection than run blocking in recent outings and Jaxson Dart can just remind the Playoff Committee of the talent that this Mississippi team possess.

These two SEC teams have not met since 2020 when the Gators blew out the Mississippi Rebels on the road, which will still give the road favourites motivation here.

Florida have to be credited for showing plenty of competitiveness, even in defeats, before the blow out to the Texas Longhorns. However, they were beaten by 13 points by Texas A&M and 14 points by Georgia Bulldogs and the feeling is that the Rebels can match those margins in this big Week 13 game.

Vanderbilt Commodores @ LSU Tigers Pick: He came in with a big contract signed, but Head Coach Brian Kelly is under immense pressure at the LSU Tigers (6-4). Six teams are still firmly involved in the race to reach the College Football Playoff from within the SEC, but it is a real disappointment for all associated with LSU that they are not one of them with a 3-3 record within the Conference.

They had begun with three SEC wins, but the Tigers have now lost three in a row to the Texas A&M Aggies, Alabama Crimson Tide and Florida Gators. All of those defeats have been by double digits to end LSU's hopes of making the Playoff, while some of the sideline issues involving Brian Kelly and a couple of the players have gone viral.

The Tigers host the Vanderbilt Commodores (6-4) who hold the same record as LSU, but who will be feeling much more positive about their record compared with the home team. The Commodores have lost two of their last three SEC games, but they still have a 3-3 record within the Conference, while the upset over Alabama will live long in the memory for all of the fans who attended.

Diego Pavia has played well at Quarter Back for Vanderbilt and the team are coming out of a Bye Week, which has given Pavia the time that should see him overcome his issue and start in Week 13. Others have also used the time to make sure they are ready to play in this big road game as Vanderbilt look for another upset and having key players available is a big boost.

The key on this side of the ball for the Commodores is going to be finding a way to exploit the big problems that the Tigers Defensive Line have had in stopping the run. In recent games, Vanderbilt have not exactly been very consistent when it comes to running the ball and so the battle at the Line of Scrimmage is going to be key for both teams.

The Quarter Back has offered a dual-threat out of the position so the Commodores could look to Diego Pavia to move the ball on the ground to open up the passing lanes. He has been a pretty efficient passer for much of the season, but Pavia has just struggled in recent games with the injury potentially restricting his performance.

Throwing against this Tigers Secondary will be challenging if Pavia is being forced to make plays from behind the chains, but having the Quarter Back available will give Vanderbilt the opportunity to make some big plays on the ground.

Running the ball will be a struggle for the LSU Tigers in this game too, although they may feel the competition being faced is a step down compared with the teams beaten in the three game losing streak. Even then, the Tigers have not been able to break the big runs and this is a Vanderbilt Defensive Line that has been the strength of the team this side of the ball.

It has placed more pressure on Garrett Nussmeier at Quarter Back and he has had an inconsistent season to say the least. 22 Touchdown passes have come with 11 Interceptions and there will be further pressure on Nussmeier to show what he can do after a highly rated Quarter Back recruit changed his mind and flipped his commitment from LSU to Michigan.

Garrett Nussmeier is at least throwing against a Vanderbilt Secondary that has been struggling to deal with the pass, although the Quarter Back will not have a lot of time in the pocket if the team are not able to establish the run. This could lead to turnovers, which could spark an upset for the road team, and it looks like it could be a tough evening for LSU.

However, they are playing under the lights and this is a team with something to prove, which should at least give LSU some motivation. Brian Kelly might be under pressure, and players could easily lose focus with a season that has unravelled, but the Commodores have also been playing without the intensity of earlier this season.

Injuries are hurting the road team and that may be the key for LSU to earn a win and a rare cover against the spread.

Colorado Buffaloes @ Kansas Jayhawks Pick: With two weeks left in the regular season, the surprising 2024 Colorado Buffaloes (8-2) have been set as favourites to win the Big 12, which should also come with a Playoff spot. That will mean winning out and then winning the Big 12 Championship Game, but the momentum is with the Colorado Buffaloes, although they are facing a tough road game in Week 13.

Arrowhead, the home of the Kansas City Chiefs, will be the venue when the Buffaloes travel to face the Kansas Jayhawks (4-6). There has to be plenty of respect for a team that has won three of their last four games to just about keep their Bowl bid alive after a miserable run to open the season, while that respect deepens when noting that the Kansas Jayhawks upset the BYU Cougars last time out.

That win ended the unbeaten hopes of the Cougars, while also knocking them out of the current top twelve in the Playoff Rankings so Head Coach Deion Sanders will be reminding his players of the threat that will be offered by the home team.

A number of the big name Colorado players have to be excited about playing in a NFL Stadium with that likely to be in their future once Draft Day passes. Impressing in such a setting may just boost the Buffaloes Ranking, which is currently Number 16, and you do have to believe that Sanders and his team will feel a little disrespected in their current positioning having won four games in a row since losing narrowly to the Kansas State Wildcats.

Colorado have been heavily relying on the arm of Shedeur Sanders as they have continued to struggle to run the ball, but even knowing what to come has not made life any easier for Defensive units facing this Buffaloes team. He is not the dual-threat that some Quarter Backs are, but Sanders is likely to be the first name called out in the next NFL Draft having thrown for over 3200 passing yards with 27 Touchdowns and just 7 Interceptions.

His life would be all the easier if the Buffaloes Offensive Line could help establish the run, but that has been an issue all season and even facing this Kansas Defensive Line is not expected to change those fortunes. It is not going to really impact the play of Shedeur Sanders though, especially with the Jayhawks Secondary giving up plenty of yards through the air and the Buffaloes are expected to keep the chains moving.

Deion Sanders is demanding more from his team, despite the strong run, and he will certainly expect a challenging test from the Jayhawks.

Much like when the Buffaloes have the ball, it may be tough for Kansas to really look to the run to set up the pass, even if the Offensive Line has been playing well. The Colorado Defensive Line have played really well when it comes to the run during their winning streak and they will certainly believe they are capable of at least containing the Jayhawks on the ground with their strengths at the Line of Scrimmage.

The difference when it comes to running the ball is that the Jayhawks can call plays for Jalon Daniels at Quarter Back compared with the Buffaloes who know Shedeur Sanders is an effective passer. That is not to say that Daniels cannot have success throwing the ball, but he has yet to hit 2000 passing yards and 13 Touchdown passes with 10 Interceptions shows there is a marked difference between the Quarter Backs when it comes to throwing down the field.

Jalon Daniels can move around the pocket to give himself some time, but he will be hoping to be in third and manageable spots on the field to just ensure the Buffaloes pass rush is not able to have a big impact on the game. This ability to sense the pressure has helped with the pass protection though and Daniels will be able to exploit some holes in the Colorado Secondary, albeit with the potential danger of being turned over when he steps back to throw.

Turnovers are likely to be very important in this game, and a potentially big deciding factor considering where the line sits.

You do have a feeling that this game could come down to whichever teams possesses the ball last, but the Colorado Buffaloes have been playing with a lot of confidence right now and that may just see them edge to a success. The Kansas Jayhawks invested a lot into the upset of the BYU Cougars, but they were slightly fortunate too and will need the bounce of the ball to work in their favour to win this one.

Colorado look to have a slight talent edge and the team are playing with momentum right now, which can be hard to shake off. There is also some motivation from being placed outside the top twelve in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings and Deion Sanders can use that to inspire his team to an important road win and edge that much closer to participating in the Big 12 Championship Game.

MY PICKS: Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 14 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

SMU Mustangs - 10 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Mississippi Rebels - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

LSU Tigers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Colorado Buffaloes - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Connecticut Huskies + 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

California Golden Bears - 14 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Baylor Bears - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 12: 3-6, - 3.23 Units (9 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)

Week 11: 1-5, - 4.15 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.17% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 4.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 57.86% Yield)

Week 9: 4-2, + 1.82 Units (6 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)

Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)

Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)

Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)

Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)