Both Taylor Fritz and Jannik Sinner were playing in the same Group and they will meet with the title on the line on Sunday in what is also a repeat of the US Open Final from September.
Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Taylor Fritz: After wins over Alexander Zverev at Wimbledon and the US Open, Taylor Fritz dug in to see off the German in a very close, competitive Semi Final on Saturday.
This means Taylor Fritz has surpassed his own expectations of the tournament and he has certainly gotten the mental edge over Zverev, but backing that up and winning the biggest title of his career is going to be another significant challenge for the American.
He may have had a bit more time to rest and recover ahead of the Final, but Jannik Sinner made very easy work of Casper Ruud in his own Semi Final and so that is not expected to be a factor.
There is no doubt that the toughest win that Sinner has had in this tournament was against Taylor Fritz in the Group- he has broken the other three opponents at least three times, but Jannik Sinner was 'only' able to do that twice against Fritz in that match.
What should be noted is that Jannik Sinner had considerably more success on the return of serve against Taylor Fritz than anyone has managed in Turin. Taylor Fritz has won at least 70% of the service points played in each of the three wins this week, but that number dropped to 62% against Jannik Sinner and there is no doubt that the underdog will be under more pressure to hit his marks.
At his best, Taylor Fritz can do that, but he invested a lot into the Semi Final win over Alexander Zverev and the scoreboard pressure could be tough to deal with.
Jannik Sinner has served at a high level all week and he will likely keep Taylor Fritz contained on this side of the court, while building the pressure with his return.
Covering this spread will not be easy, especially if Taylor Fritz wins the toss and decides to serve first.
However, the Italian World Number 1 has found a way to get on top of the Fritz serve for long enough to create the Break Points and, ultimately, move into a position to win the title with a good looking win on the scoreboard. Last season Sinner had to face an opponent he had beaten in the Group Stage in the Final of this tournament and was beaten by Novak Djokovic, but twelve months on and Sinner is the best hard court player in the world who can round out 2024 with yet another strong win on the surface.
MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 2.25 Bet365 (1 Unit)
World Tour Finals Update: 10-4, + 4.46 Units (14 Units Staked, + 31.86% Yield)
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