We don't really have the kind of blockbuster moves at the trade deadline in the NFL as you can get with the other US sports, but it is still a good time to assess the potential of teams and, more importantly, what teams believe they are capable of achieving.
With that in mind, some of the top NFL teams have made moves to strengthen their prospects for January and February and the likes of the Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions look poised for big things.
However, if there is one thing we know about the NFL, it is that nothing is decided in November and there are always teams capable of getting very hot in December and rolling right through to a Super Bowl win. Despite all of the naysayers and some of the boo birds that seem to be accompanying every game they play, the Philadelphia Eagles are moving into a dangerous position to make a run as long as they can stay healthy.
Teams like Pittsburgh, Houston and San Francisco will have plenty of supporters behind them, although the lack of experience around Washington perhaps means we are yet to learn how far the Commanders can go. Two games with the Eagles in the NFC East will certainly paint a better picture about their prospects and there are some teams that have not been mentioned that have every reason to believe in their own capabilities having set a solid foundation from the first half of the season.
The Week 9 NFL Picks returned a very slight positive number, but it is a positive number and secures a really productive first half of the 2024 season.
As well as things have gone, it is very easy for fortune to turn and so it is key to not get carried away and to maintain some focus in the weeks ahead.
At the moment the tighter selection process has worked out well, but focusing on moving forward and not getting too far ahead of myself is the key to ensure another winning season from the sport. The NFL can be a very erratic League at times and spreads are being put together by very smart people, so it is a good start, but only a start.
In Week 10 we do have a selection from Thursday Night Football as two AFC North teams face off for the second time this season and further Picks will be added to this thread.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: The Cleveland Browns look like they are out of contention in the AFC North, but the other three teams in the Division have made moves before the trade deadline, which suggest they are looking to have an impact in the Playoffs in January.
Two of those teams face each other on Thursday Night Football in Week 10 of the 2024 season and it is the second time the Baltimore Ravens (6-3) and Cincinnati Bengals (4-5) will face off. The Ravens won in Overtime when visiting the Bengals in what was a really fun game, but one that Cincinnati will feel they lost rather than the Ravens won.
Baltimore may have a different kind of mind towards that, and Lamar Jackson has continued his recent dominance of this Divisional rival. Sweeping the season series would likely have the Ravens feeling they cannot finish behind the Bengals in the standings and would make up for the disappointing loss to the Cleveland Browns.
Both of these teams put up 41 points in victories in Week 9 as they prepare for a short week, although one in which both Baltimore and Cincinnati will be pretty familiar with what the other wants to do.
Ultimately it then comes down to which of the two teams can impose their will on the other a bit more effectively and the balance of this Baltimore Offensive unit makes them very, very dangerous. Head Coach John Harbaugh has been praising the impact of Derrick Henry and feels the Ravens are considerably more dangerous with a Running Back of that elite level compared to where they have been previously.
Derrick Henry was contained to some extent in the win over Cincinnati earlier in the season... That is until he ripped off a huge run that set up the victory for the Ravens! In recent games the Bengals Defensive Line have actually played the run pretty well, so they may have some early success when it comes to hitting Henry, although the fact that Lamar Jackson is also very capable of moving the ball with his legs will just keep the Bengals guessing.
It was actually Lamar Jackson's arm that impressed most in the win over the Bengals on the road and 4 Touchdown passes with almost 350 passing yards kept Baltimore battling before coming through in Overtime. Diontae Johnson may have more of an impact in this one having arrived in a trade from the Carolina Panthers and failing to earn a catch in Week 9, while Jackson could have yet another strong showing against this Bengals Defensive unit.
Joe Burrow actually played better than Lamar Jackson in the first meeting having compiled almost 400 passing yards and with 5 Touchdown passes. However, it was his late Interception that proved costly with the Bengals driving deep into Baltimore territory and when already holding a 3 point lead.
He would love to have that back, but Burrow could pick up from where he left off against this Ravens Secondary that has struggled to defend the pass. It will be down to the Quarter Back considering the issues the Bengals have in establishing the run and the Ravens Defensive Line remains the strength of the unit on this side of the ball.
Having a returning Tee Higgins would help, while it feels very important to have Orlando Brown Jr back at Left Tackle- out of the two, Brown Jr is perhaps more likely to suit up and that will be important to try and keep the pocket clean for their Quarter Back, especially if he does not have his full complement of Receiving options.
You still have to believe Joe Burrow will make some big plays, but the pressure will be on without a running game and with Ja'Marr Chase perhaps having a few more eyes focused on him without Tee Higgins.
Facing a relentless Baltimore team, the pressure could force Burrow into an errant throw, and that may end up turning the game in favour of the hosts.
Lamar Jackson has dominated this Divisional rival and there is every chance the Ravens have a big enough lead to avoid the backdoor cover when all is said and done on Thursday Night Football.
Carolina Panthers vs New York Giants Pick: Both teams look certain to miss the Playoffs again and there are likely going to be big changes at the end of this season for the New York Giants (2-7). A bit more patience may be needed with the Carolina Panthers (2-7), who won in Week 9 to at least give themselves a boost as the two teams head to Munich for the last NFL game to be played on European soil until 2025.
With both teams sharing the same record, some will feel it is a real surprise to have the New York Giants down as a big favourite, but there is a reason that is the case.
The Giants have lost four in a row, but those have been against the Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers and Washington Commanders. Only the Bengals have a losing record right now of those four teams, but there is every chance they will rally to become a Playoff team, while the other three teams all look on course to reach the post-season.
Keeping that in mind, it does mean the Giants have perhaps been a victim of the schedule as much as their own poor Offensive play and this is a big opportunity for Daniel Jones against a much weaker Defensive unit than he has face for a while.
Losing Saquon Barkley in the off-season looks a worse decision when seeing what he is doing with NFC East rivals Philadelphia, but the Giants Offensive Line have still been able to open up some solid running lanes. Tyrone Tracy Jr has benefited and he should be able to put up some decent numbers on the ground in this one, while Daniel Jones is also capable of moving the ball with his legs from the Quarter Back position.
It should mean the Giants are playing out of third and manageable spots on the field, while this may be a rare game in which the New York Offensive Line is able to give Daniel Jones some time in the pocket. Running the ball has not been a problem, but the pass protection has not played up to the same level, although in this game in Munich they are facing a Panthers team that have simply not been able to get to the Quarter Back with any consistency.
Daniel Jones will not have to hold onto the ball for too long if he and Tracy Jr can pound the rock on the ground, and the Quarter Back does have some Receivers who can create space against this Carolina Secondary.
Covering a big number like this one is about scoring points, which has been an issue for the Giants, but they may feel that they can protect those points that they are able to produce on the scoreboard. The New York Defensive unit has played much better than the other side of the ball and they will feel they match up pretty well with this Carolina Offensive unit that has Bryce Young starting at Quarter Back.
It has been possible to run the ball against the New York Giants, but it may not be as easy for a banged up Carolina Offensive Line to create the holes that others have been able to do. Chuba Hubbard looked in good form in the Week 9 win over the New Orleans Saints to snap out of something of a funk, although the game plan for the Giants may be to play up closer to the Line of Scrimmage and see if Bryce Young can beat them through the air.
The Giants Secondary have actually played pretty well so they will be confident, especially with the Panthers short in the Receiving corps. There is still an inconsistency about Bryce Young, while the Giants have a pass rush that could have the Quarter Back scrambling around for time in the pocket.
Throwing Interceptions continues to be an issue for Bryce Young and the feeling is that the New York Giants can make enough plays on this side of the ball to move into a position to win and cover. Backing bad teams to win games by comfortable margins is something that I have looked to avoid this season, but this is a spot where the New York Giants may just take advantage of a Panthers team that put in a lot to beat a Divisional rival in Week 9.
New York match up pretty well on both sides of the ball with what they are going to be facing and Daniel Jones can just ease the pressure and talk around his future by helping the Giants to a solid win in Germany before heading into their Bye Week.
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints Pick: After two weeks and with 91 points scored, the New Orleans Saints (2-7) could not have imagined where they would be at the halfway mark of the 2024 season.
Seven straight injuries have ended with Head Coach Dennis Allen fired and the Saints have traded away Marshon Lattimore. Instead of thinking about the Playoffs, the New Orleans Saints might already be considering their Draft Position for next year as injuries have piled up throughout the roster.
Next up is the Atlanta Falcons (6-3) who have taken control of the NFC South.
This is what was expected from the Falcons after bringing in Kirk Cousins as the starting Quarter Back and five wins in six games have given the team a real lift. Winning in Week 10 would push the Falcons to 5-0 within the NFC South and it would mean they are also a considerable way to securing at least one home Playoff game in January.
It is never the best position to be siding with the public when they are pumping a road favourite as much as they are with the Falcons in Week 10, but there looks to be a considerable advantage for the road team who will enjoy playing under the Dome.
Derek Carr has returned at Quarter Back for the Saints, but he was not able to inspire a win at the Carolina Panthers and was heavily criticised for a pass that left Chris Olave out to dry. The concussion suffered by the young Receiver has ruled him out this game and New Orleans will have to lean on their Offensive Line to try and keep themselves in front of the chains.
This should be possible against the Falcons Defensive Line, while Derek Carr may be offered more protection than any New Orleans Quarter Back has been used to. One of the problems for the Falcons is having a Defensive unit that has struggled to make consistent stops, and that will need to be improved if they want to have a deep run in the post-season, but it is also going to be challenging for New Orleans with the injuries to keep things ticking over.
An interim Head Coach has inspired teams to big performances and there is no doubt that the Falcons are expecting that to happen.
However, the New Orleans Defensive unit has been hurt badly with injuries restricting their ability to make plays and you have to believe Kirk Cousins can expose the holes that have been evident.
The Falcons should find an easy balance on the Offensive side of the ball and it will be very tough for New Orleans to prevent the road team from moving up and down the field. Kirk Cousins can lean on the running game behind the Offensive Line, while there is a chance that Drake London will be back to just offer another Receiving threat for the Quarter Back to utilise.
When these teams met back in September, the Falcons were perhaps fortunate to come away with a win, but the teams have moved in vastly different directions since then. Despite the firing of their Head Coach and the expected reaction to that, the Saints made moves ahead of the trade deadline that may have all feeling that 2025 is already the focus and the Atlanta Falcons may just have too much scoring power for an injury hit New Orleans team to do with.
San Francisco 49ers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: They are fortunate to be playing in the relatively weak looking NFC West and the San Francisco 49ers (4-4) will come out of their Bye Week with Christian McCaffrey ready to return. Injuries have perhaps restricted the 49ers and prevented them from building the momentum to really take control of the Division, and there is a slight concern at being 1-2 against NFC West opponents, but more is expected from San Francisco going forward.
Travelling across the country for a 1pm Eastern Time kick off is not ideal, especially with a Divisional rival next up, but the Bye should mean the 49ers are ready.
Add to that the fact they are facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) who have been seriously hurt by injuries to key players and who have lost three in a row.
Baker Mayfield is still playing pretty well at Quarter Back, but losing Chris Godwin for the season and having Mike Evans on the sidelines recovering from a hamstring issue is a real blow for the team. Despite that, Mayfield and the Buccaneers are scoring plenty of points to at least remain competitive, although the Defensive unit have not been able to create the stops that may have turned momentum.
Earlier in the season the Buccaneers may have actually been able to establish the run with some consistency to help the Quarter Back, but that may not be as easy against a fresher San Francisco Defensive Line. They actually went into the Bye Week playing better at the Line of Scrimmage and there is a feeling that the 49ers can make sure they control things up front knowing there are backups playing for the Buccaneers in the Wide Receiver positions.
The Quarter Back has maintained some strong numbers and the Offensive plans have given the Buccaneers a chance, and that has to be respected here. The Offensive Line have opened up the running lanes, but they have been solid enough in pass protection to deserve plenty of respect too so there is an opportunity for Baker Mayfield to at least put up enough points for Tampa Bay to believe they can win as the home underdog.
However, the question really is whether the Defensive unit can step up for the Buccaneers and that is perhaps asking a bit too much of the current team from what we have seen in recent games.
Even without the threat of Christian McCaffrey, the 49ers Offensive Line have really been bullying teams up front and they are likely going to establish the run with a lot more consistency than their hosts. It has been a problem for the Buccaneers during their three game losing run, while the return of Christian McCaffrey also offers Brock Purdy another Receiving threat capable of picking up a lot of yards after the catch.
Brandon Aiyuk is out for the season, although Brock Purdy could benefit from the like of George Kittle and Deebo Samuel having a Bye Week to just get through some of the injuries and illnesses that had been holding them back. With the main Running Back, the 49ers will be that much more dangerous and that should mean Brock Purdy can run the Offensive unit as he wants.
The 49ers Offensive Line have offered plenty of protection for Purdy, who is also going to get the ball out of his hands pretty quickly, and it should mean San Francisco are moving the ball efficiently.
A backdoor cover cannot be ruled out with the way the Buccaneers have continued to play through adversity, but the 49ers are fresh and this is a short week for Tampa Bay having put so much into an Overtime loss on Monday Night Football at the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9.
Minnesota Vikings @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: They may feel there is plenty of room for improvement after the Week 9 win against the Indianapolis Colts, but it is much easier to deal with that after putting a victory together. Snapping a two game losing run will have the Minnesota Vikings (6-2) feeling better, although it does mean they are behind the Detroit Lions in what is a very competitive NFC North Division.
The focus has to be on their own performances and the Vikings will be looking to push their way into the Playoffs at the end of this season, either as a Divisional Champion or as a dangerous Wild Card team.
This looks a good chance to back up the win over one AFC South when facing another and that is because the hosts Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) are expected to go into Week 10 without Quarter Back Trevor Lawrence. To make matters even tougher, the Receiving corps has been hit hard by injuries and it is going to be a big challenge for backup CJ Beathard to help his team move the ball with any consistency.
Jacksonville might have lost their last two games, but they have been a lot more competitive since the embarrassing loss to the Chicago Bears in London. However, doing the same without Trevor Lawrence is going to be very difficult and especially with this Minnesota Vikings team in front of a backup that may not always see what is coming.
If they could run the ball and take the pressure away from CJ Beathard, it would help, but that is not likely going to be the case for the Jaguars. Instead the Quarter Back could be forced to throw from third and long spots, while trying to work out where Brian Flores is sending the pressure from.
It is a bend, don't break kind of Secondary, but unlikely that CJ Beathard is going to have a lot of consistent success if the likes of Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr are not able to go. Christian Kirk has been ruled out for the season and all in all, this looks like it could be a long day Offensively for a team that is struggling.
Playing out of a primetime spot and having a big Divisional game up next does make this an awkward spot for the Minnesota Vikings. However, Sam Darnold is looking to just round into more consistent form again at Quarter Back and he should be able to offer the Vikings plenty of balance on the Offensive side of the ball.
Aaron Jones has arrived from rivals Green Bay and has shown there is still plenty in the tank as far as the Running Back is concerned and he is playing behind a Minnesota Offensive Line which has been capable of opening up some strong lanes for him. This has really helped Sam Darnold at Quarter Back, although Darnold has admitted he needs to be a bit more careful with the ball as Interceptions have perhaps become too frequent for his and his Head Coach's liking.
Pressure around him has not helped, but Sam Darnold should have a cleaner pocket with the team operating in third and manageable, while the play-action will open up if the Vikings are running the ball as expected. There are holes in this Jacksonville Secondary that can be exploited, and Sam Darnold is fortunate to be playing with some big time Receivers and it should allow Minnesota to pull clear.
If Trevor Lawrence was going to suit up, the Jaguars would have the potential for a backdoor cover, but that is all the more difficult with CJ Beathard behind Center.
The schedule spot is far from ideal, but the Vikings can get the better of another AFC South team and earn another cover on their way to a seventh win of the season.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: It doesn't feel that long ago that the NFC East might have been considered the best Division in the NFL, but that is not the case in 2024.
Even then, it looks like on that could potentially be sending at least two teams to the Playoffs in the Washington Commanders and the Philadelphia Eagles (6-2). Despite the noise coming down from the stands and some of the criticism in the media, Head Coach Nick Sirianni has guided the Eagles just behind the Commanders in the Division and with a big game coming up between the top two teams in the NFC East in Week 11.
It is a game to be played on Thursday Night Football so there is a slight concern that the Eagles could be looking past the Dallas Cowboys (3-5) who are going to be without Dak Prescott at Quarter Back.
A third loss in a row has dropped the Cowboys to a couple of games below 0.500 and Mike McCarthy has to be feeling his seat heating up day by day as the Head Coach. In reality Jerry Jones should be taking plenty of the 'credit' for the way this season has developed, but the axe will fall on the Head Coach who was perhaps fortunate to remain in charge ahead of the 2024 season.
Dak Prescott is out, but Cooper Rush will come in as backup with a 5-1 record as a starter in relief, although he is not going to be benefit from a lot of support around him. In previous outings, Rush might have leaned on the Dallas Offensive Line, but they have struggled to establish the run this season and the improving Philadelphia Defensive Line may be extra keen to clamp down up front and see if Cooper Rush can beat them through the air.
Another issue for the Offensive Line, which is banged up, is that they have not really offered much protection for Dak Prescott and that is unlikely to improve for their backup Quarter Back. The Philadelphia Eagles pass rush could cause massive problems for Rush every time he steps back to throw, especially when stuck in third and long spots, and that pressure up front has certainly allowed the Eagles Secondary to make some big plays.
The experience of Cooper Rush as a starter will at least help, but it looks a good opportunity for the Eagles to make enough big plays on this side of the ball to set things up for their Offensive unit to pull away for an impressive win.
Much like others have managed this season, the Eagles will look to the Offensive Line to just push Dallas around up front and a number of Running Backs have had big outings against the Cowboys already. His personal record against Dallas has been disappointing from his time with the New York Giants, but Saquon Barkley can finally get the better of the team as a member of the Philadelphia Eagles.
Some may have thought Barkley was not worth bringing in, but he has been a key part of this Eagles Offensive unit and can have a very strong outing.
Last weekend the Head Coach would have been criticised for some of the bizarre play-calling for the Eagles when in fourth and inches, but his team still managed to win for a fourth time in a row. Saquon Barkley has just taken some of the pressure away from Jalen Hurts at Quarter Back and the likes of AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are also available, who also benefit from the running game being as productive as it has been.
The Cowboys have gotten some pressure up front and that pass rush could be boosted by a returning Micah Parsons, although they will need to find a way to contain Saquon Barkley to really have an opportunity to get after the Quarter Back.
With Kellen Moore at Offensive Co-Ordinator, there is going to be motivation from the Eagles to try and really and give the former Dallas Co-Ordinator a boost. That could mean attempting to run up the score here and Philadelphia could really get one over on their Divisional rival with a strong win on the road.
Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: If it was possible, the NFL may have seen this Monday Night Football flexed out of the spot, but it will be the Miami Dolphins (2-6) heading West to take on the Los Angeles Rams (4-4).
It is the Rams who are entrenched in a Divisional battle with the NFC West congested, but the season for the Dolphins has been difficult to say the least. There is still a hope that things can turn around for Miami, who have already faced Buffalo twice, but they have lost a couple of close games since Tua Tagovailoa has been able to return at Quarter Back and need to start changing that narrative if they are going to work their way into the post-season.
At this point of the season, Miami's margin for error is almost down to zero with the expectation being fewer than nine wins will not be good enough.
They have looked better Offensively with their starting Quarter Back behind Center, and there is an expectation for Miami to maintain that push on this side of the ball. The Rams have won three in a row, which perhaps was a factor in keeping the core of the roster together through the trade deadline, but they are still a team that can give up some big plays.
During this winning run, the Rams Defensive Line have clamped down on the run, but that is not going to be as easy against a Miami team with big Offensive weapons. Mike McDaniel will always feel that the run can open up the big passing lanes down the field and he will not lose faith in what the Dolphins can do on the ground having seen some consistent performances from his Running Back and Offensive Line.
The Miami Offensive Line have offered some solid protection for their Quarter Back and this is going to be a key part of the game as they look to just ease the Los Angeles pass rush. Running the ball will help and Tua Tagovailoa can employ his Running Backs as catchers out of the backfield, which will just keep the Rams guessing and open up opportunities against this Secondary.
There is every chance that this will be an exciting primetime game considering the challenges that Miami will face when Matthew Stafford and the Rams have the ball.
Injuries have just cleared up for the Rams, which has really given Stafford the chance to lead his team forward, and the veteran Quarter Back will have his top Receivers on the field who are very capable of finding the spaces in the Secondary to exploit.
Running the ball might be more challenging for the Rams, even with Kyren Williams continuing to impress out of the backfield. However, Matthew Stafford is more than capable of leading the Rams forward and he, and his Receivers, can put the Rams into a position to win the game.
With a limited pass rush, Miami will give Matthew Stafford time in the pocket and that should mean both teams are capable of moving the ball and scoring points.
A shoot out would not be a surprise considering the issues in the Secondaries and the Offensive-minded Head Coaches prowling the sidelines and that is the lean for this Monday Night Football game. It is a big number, but the conditions should be comfortable for the Quarter Backs taking to the field and some quick strikes may be produced to help take the game over the line set.
MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 5.5 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
New York Giants - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Atlanta Falcons - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
San Francisco 49ers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Minnesota Vikings - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Los Angeles Rams-Miami Dolphins Over 48.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)
Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)
Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)
Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)
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