We are down to the final two Group matches at the World Tour Finals and both Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz will be resting up and waiting to see who will be facing them in the Semi Final.
The second match is going to be the key, but the first on Day 6 looks full of quality before we get down to the business end of the event in Turin.
Alexander Zverev-Carlos Alcaraz over 22.5 games: When the Groups were drawn out for the ATP World Tour Finals, the meeting between Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz would have been one that was expected to decide the top spot in the section.
This may yet be the case, but Carlos Alcaraz is still fighting his way back from the upset defeat to Casper Ruud in his opening match. He admitted he was not feeling his best prior to the match with Andrey Rublev to save his tournament, but afterwards Carlos Alcaraz stated he had been able to move better than in his opening match as he beat Rublev in straight sets.
It gives him a real chance to still make the Semi Final and Carlos Alcaraz will go a long way towards progression if he is able to win this one in straight sets.
However, Alexander Zverev will be doing all he can to at least secure one of the first two sets as he still has a potential path towards elimination, despite beating both Rublev and Ruud in straight sets. A heavy defeat to Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud winning the other match in straight sets could see Zverev eliminated so the focus for the German will be on securing at least a set against Carlos Alcaraz that will push him through.
Confidence should not be an issue for Alexander Zverev who beat Carlos Alcaraz at the World Tour Finals last year and who followed up by eliminating the Spaniard at the Australian Open. The two meetings since Melbourne have both been won by Alcaraz, including that epic French Open Final, but the indoor conditions suits Alexander Zverev.
Those conditions have certainly helped the ball fly from the serve and Zverev has dominated behind that shot with over 80% of points won and the German yet to face a Break Point. The serve is certainly working well enough to help Alexander Zverev rattle through some games and keep the scoreboard pressure on an opponent that has to win well to give himself the best chance of earning a spot in the next Round.
After a sub-par serving day against Casper Ruud, Carlos Alcaraz was much better next time out with 78% of points won and containing the Andrey Rublev threat. You have to credit Alexander Zverev for the wins produced this week, but he has not overwhelmed opponents with the return of serve and there are likely going to be some very tight margins to deal with when these top players meet.
We saw our first three set match in the Singles tournament on Day 5 and it would bot be a surprise if this one follows that route.
There is a definite case to be made for the total games line to be surpassed if both Zverev and Alcaraz continue to serve as they did last time out. Break Points might be hard to find and tie-breakers are looming, which should go a long way to getting passed this total line set, even if the third set is not needed.
Casper Ruud v Andrey Rublev: This is the very last match of the Group Stage at the 2024 tournament and all will become very clear in terms of permutations for both of these players before they head out onto the court in Turin. Neither will want to overburden themselves with the numbers, but it will be much clearer what they need to do in order to progress to the Semi Final.
Things are much tougher for Andrey Rublev, which is no surprise considering he has lost both matches played in straight sets. He needs Alexander Zverev to beat Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets in the other match in the Group played earlier in the day and Andrey Rublev would then have to win in straight sets and there is no other pathway for him to make his way to the Semi Final at this event again.
For Casper Ruud the picture will only really clear up fully at the end of the Zverev-Alcaraz match too, but his focus has to be on winning this match in straight sets. Doing that should be good enough to progress no matter what has happened earlier in the day, although there will still be some permutations to work out just in case Ruud was to drop a set.
As mentioned, there is actually a pathway for Casper Ruud to progress even after a three set defeat, but no tennis player will be thinking about trying to do anything other than winning this match.
Casper Ruud had been in miserable form in the lead up to the World Tour Finals, but the win over Carlos Alcaraz, even a limited Alcaraz, will have provided him a boost. He did not play badly against Alexander Zverev, but Ruud was not really able to have a decent impact on the return of serve and that ultimately proved costly when Zverev took the one and only Break Point he created.
Serving like that will put Andrey Rublev under pressure and the Russian has just shown a bit of fragility in both of his two losses. While there have been times when he has looked good, Rublev has dropped serve twice in each defeat and he is always likely to throw in one or two bad service games to give an opponent a chance.
This will be very much in the Casper Ruud thinking, while the Norwegian may also hold a mental advantage knowing he has beaten Rublev at this event in both 2021 and 2022.
The first of those meetings was very competitive and Andrey Rublev may count himself unlucky to lose, but Casper Ruud dismissed his challenge easily in the 2022 Semi Final and is serving well enough to find an edge in this one.
The odds feel reflective of the overall form of the two players heading into this event in Turin, but Casper Ruud has served well enough this week to stay with Andrey Rublev until what will feel like an inevitable poor service game. If the Russian is officially eliminated, it may be tough to really put in the work to turn around the match if things begin to go wrong and Casper Ruud looks a decent underdog to get behind as he hopes to unexpectedly reach the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev-Carlos Alcaraz Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Casper Ruud @ 2.50 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
World Tour Finals Update: 7-3, + 2.24 Units (10 Units Staked, + 22.40% Yield)
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