The last couple of weeks have been rough to say the least.
A poor run with plenty of poor Picks have disappointed, but there is still some time to turn things back around.
The same thing will be thought by players and teams that are underperforming, although the margin for error is beginning to fade for those that have suffered two losses. One of those teams is the Georgia Bulldogs, but they have still been given enough respect by the Playoff Committee to believe they can force their way into the top twelve by bouncing back and winning out.
It would help if some of the top Big Ten teams lose games in the next couple of weeks, but teams have to focus towards the end from here and that means winning games and not worrying about how the final Rankings will come out.
Week 12 has a number of big games set to be played and the scene can change very quickly in College Football with an upset or two and so there will be drama, as there is every time games are played through the nation.
Texas Longhorns @ Arkansas Razorbacks Pick: We are getting closer and closer to the end of the regular season and there are still some big things to achieve for the Texas Longhorns (8-1). They have bounced back from the home loss to the Georgia Bulldogs and Texas looked strong out of their Bye Week when crushing the Florida Gators to move to 4-1 within the SEC.
Winning out will put the Texas Longhorns into the SEC Championship Game and they are 3rd in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings already. Reaching the Final with an 11-1 record would see the Longhorns almost certainly playing to reach the National Championship, even if they were to lose the SEC Championship Game.
Two of the remaining three games in the SEC are on the road, but the Longhorns will be strong favourites over the next two weeks before taking on upstart Texas A&M Aggies over Thanksgiving Weekend to round out the season.
Overlooking the Arkansas Razorbacks (5-4) would be a mistake with the team holding a 3-3 record in the SEC and who have already upset the Tennessee Volunteers at home. The Razorbacks have been blown out in home defeats to the LSU Tigers and Mississippi Rebels since upsetting the Volunteers and so the Bye Week will have given them a chance to reset and to prepare really well for this game.
Motivation will be easy for the home fans with Arkansas and Texas holding a historic rivalry that has been put aside in recent years as they have played in different Conferences. That is not the case now, while it has only been a little over three years since Arkansas crushed Texas at home as a relatively big underdog.
This has not been forgotten by the Longhorns either, but this Texas team is stronger than the one that last visited Arkansas and the Defensive unit look like they could be capable of making the plays to contain the home team.
Having the Bye Week last week means the Razorbacks could have both Quarter Back Taylen Green and Running Back Ja'Quinden Jackson in the lineup. Both are going to be very important for Arkansas in any upset bid they think they can put together, but running the ball against this Texas Defensive Line has been challenging for most teams this season.
Taylen Green had been putting up some decent numbers of late, but again the challenge is facing a Longhorns Defense that is playing at a high level and with a place in the College Football Playoff in their sights. He may have a bit more time in the pocket than he has been used to in recent games, although the Longhorns will always cause problems in the backfield if a team is playing from third and long against them.
Arkansas have struggled for consistency against the better teams faced on this side of the ball, while the pressure will ramp up on the Razorbacks Defensive unit to produce better than they did against the Tigers and Rebels. Unfortunately, the Razorbacks are facing a Texas team that have plenty of playmakers on the Offensive side of the ball and it is going to be a huge test for them, even out of a Bye Week.
One area where Arkansas have played well is containing the run and they may have some success doing that in this game too, although the Secondary have really had major problems when facing the pass. Now they have to deal with Quinn Ewers, who had five Touchdown passes and well over 300 passing yards in the win over Florida in Week 11.
Quinn Ewers is expected to have his way with this Razorbacks Secondary, although it is never easy playing on the road in College Football.
However, the Longhorns have a long winning run in true road games and it does feel like Texas will be able to fight through a potential shoot out and eventually pull away like the Rebels did against Arkansas.
Rivalry games can produce plenty of upsets so you have to be aware of the potential of the Arkansas Razorbacks... But with a College Football Playoff place to be earned, Texas can push through some rough moments and eventually produce the kind of statement win that will give the Committee plenty of reason to keep the Longhorns Ranked very high in the Playoff places.
Utah Utes @ Colorado Buffaloes Pick: Both of these teams moved to the Big 12 from the Pac-12 at the end of last season and there was always a feeling that one of them would potentially challenge for a spot in the Championship Game and eventually the College Football Playoff.
In saying that, most would have expected that to be the Utah Utes (4-5) rather than the Colorado Buffaloes (7-2), although injuries have decimated the hopes of the former.
Take nothing away from Colorado and the performances they have been able to put together as they go into Week 12 as the Number 17 Ranked team in the latest College Football Playoff picture. The margin for error is pretty slim and you would think the Buffaloes need to win out to take their place in the Big 12 Championship Game, while Colorado will likely need to win that to earn a place in the top twelve when the regular season is concluded.
It means there is still some pressurised football for Colorado to play, but the performances will have built the confidence of an already confident team.
Three straight wins have given the Buffaloes momentum, but it has been a really different story for Utah who were incredibly upset with the late flag that led to a very narrow loss to the BYU Cougars last time out. They looked certain to end a four game losing run, but the Utes were downed by a single point in Week 11 and you do have to wonder how much they have left having invested so much to down a rival.
It is the injury to Quarter Back Cam Rising which has begun the slide, but the Utes may actually be down to a third string player in the position this weekend. Brandon Rose will have to take the call if Isaac Wilson is ruled out and this is an incredibly tough spot to be in considering the vastly improved Colorado Defensive unit that will be in front of them.
Running the ball against the Buffaloes Defensive Line has been a tough task for teams and it will be that much harder for the Utah Utes if Colorado do not respect the Quarter Back they are facing. There is faith in the ability of the Buffaloes Secondary, who have restricted teams to under 200 passing yards per game during their three game winning run, while the pass rush has found a way to get home.
After putting in such an effort to beat the Cougars, the Utah Utes may struggle for any kind of consistency when they have the ball in their hands and that could allow the surprising Buffaloes to pull clear for an impressive win.
Head Coach Deion Sanders deserves a lot of credit for the work done in his short time with Colorado and some believe it is an inevitability that he will move into a role in the NFL sooner rather than later. He has some very talented players on the roster, who are expected to be First Round Draft Picks and high ones at that, although Sanders has a huge amount of respect for the Coaching that is being done in Utah and how tough that could make things for his team.
Like the Utes, it may not be easy for the Buffaloes to have a lot of consistent success on the ground which means the onus will be on Quarter Back Shedeur Sanders to try and make plays against a tough Utah Secondary. His numbers during this winning run have been impressive, but Colorado will know only too well how touch Utah can make things with seven defeats in a row to this opponent.
The last time they met in Boulder, Utah crushed Colorado by 42 points, although you can imagine that scoreline has been spoken about a lot this week to just remind the home players to redeem themselves. Shedeur Sanders did not face Utah himself though and he will feel he can use the quality playmakers around him to make the plays needed to win this game.
This is a big spread, but it is an easy argument to make that 24 points could be all that Colorado need to cover, especially if the Defensive unit can just bamboozle a potentially inexperienced Quarter Back heading out for Utah. Deion Sanders will point out how well Kyle Whittingham Coaches with the fact that Utah have not really been blown out during this five game losing run, but the team have not scored a lot of points in those games and Colorado have reached at least 28 points in seven straight games.
Virginia Cavaliers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: Being an Independent means the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-1) will not have a Conference Championship to show the College Football Playoff Committee and earn a spot in the final twelve team Rankings. However, they are being given plenty of respect already with teams falling to two losses around them and the Fighting Irish are Number 8 in the last Rankings released.
The schedule has not really been one that could help the Fighting Irish, although they are set to face the unbeaten Army Black Knights in Week 13, which could be a huge game for both teams.
First up is a home game with the Virginia Cavaliers (5-4) who upset the Pittsburgh Panthers last weekend after an injury to the young Pittsburgh Quarter Back. One more win is still needed to earn Bowl eligibility, but the upset will give the Cavaliers a real boost in confidence ahead of a tough end to the season.
Producing enough consistency on the Offensive side of the ball will be the challenge for the Virginia Cavaliers, who have been struggling to run the ball in recent games. They are now facing a Fighting Irish Defensive Line that have really been very strong at the Line of Scrimmage and who will be looking to make Virginia as one-dimensional as possible as they continue to not only look to win games, but to win impressively.
One of the key Notre Dame Linemen will be missing on Saturday, but there is still every chance that the Fighting Irish can give this Virginia Offensive Line fits. Protecting Anthony Colandrea is the key for the Cavaliers, but that has been a hard task to achieve of late and Notre Dame have a Secondary that will not allow anything to be converted easily.
It should mean the Fighting Irish avoid another big upset having suffered one earlier in the season, but covering the spread will not be easy.
The Fighting Irish will want to run the ball and use that to open things up for Quarter Back Riley Leonard and there is a balance to this Offensive unit that Notre Dame will want to maintain. You have to credit the Virginia Defensive Line in the way they have played the run, although they will not have faced too many Offensive Lines like the one that Notre Dame are going to be running out onto the field.
For much of the season, Notre Dame have worn opponents down on the ground and this has allowed Leonard to show off some of his talents when it comes to throwing the ball down the field. The Quarter Back has an ability to tuck the ball and run for First Downs on his own, and he will have time in the pocket to expose the Virginia Secondary which has had issues stopping the pass.
Picking up turnovers is where Virginia could make things interesting, but the Fighting Irish have momentum and the strength at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball cannot be ignored.
Three seasons ago, Notre Dame won by 25 points on the road against Virginia and the feeling is that they match that margin in South Bend in Week 12 of the 2024 season and just keep themselves firmly in the mind of the Playoff Committee.
Oregon Ducks @ Wisconsin Badgers Pick: The current top four teams in the Big Ten Conference have all been given top five Rankings in the latest College Football Playoff picture and there is a real scenario where the two teams missing out on the Championship Game are going to be feel incredibly hard done by.
Out of the four teams, the Oregon Ducks (10-0) look to be in the best position.
They are not just unbeaten, but the Ducks finish this season with two teams that have a combined 10-9 record and they will have two weeks to prepare for the game with the Washington Huskies.
Despite that, Oregon dare not lose focus in the last road game at the Wisconsin Badgers (5-4) who are chasing one more win to become Bowl eligible. Being at home will always bring motivation to the table, while the Badgers are playing after a Bye Week as they look to snap a two game losing run.
The crushing loss to the Iowa Hawkeyes two weeks ago really stung, and it is never easy for a team that were expected to be getting veteran play out of the Quarter Back position only to have to deal with injuries which means an inexperienced player is being used instead. Braedyn Locke has thrown for 1400 yards, but he has 8 Touchdown passes along with 8 Interceptions and avoiding mistakes to hand over extra possessions is the key to this game.
It is going to be a tough day for the Badgers Offense and that is because they may not have a lot of success when it comes to running the ball, which in turn places a lot more pressure on Braedyn Locke at Quarter Back. The sophomore will be tasked with finding spaces to exploit against an Oregon Secondary that has found a way to step in front of passes and who have restricted the abilities of opponents to move the chains with any great efficiency through the air.
Throwing the ball might not be that much easier for Dillon Gabriel and the Oregon Ducks, but they will benefit from being able to churn out some big yards by running behind this Offensive Line. Dillon Gabriel broke the College Football record for career Touchdowns that had been held by Case Keenum, so there is no doubt he can have success if plays are dialled up for him to throw the ball.
However, the Oregon Offensive Line have really thrived in pounding the ball on the ground and stopping the run has been a weakness of Wisconsin in recent games. The Quarter Back can be used in designed runs and being in third and manageable should mean Dillon Gabriel and the Oregon Ducks can have their way Offensively as they move another step closer towards the Big Ten Championship Game and eventually the Playoff.
It should be noted that Wisconsin have struggled to remain competitive when they have been beaten in 2024 and it may be tough for the Badgers to avoid being blown out in this one. The Ducks just have to win to keep the Playoff Committee on their side, but there will be a pride in wanting to match the big wins that others have had over Wisconsin and Oregon can pull away by turning the ball over from a young Wisconsin Quarter Back.
MY PICKS: Texas Longhorns - 12 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Colorado Buffaloes - 13.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 22 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Louisville Cardinals - 20.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Penn State Nittany Lions - 29.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
USC Trojans - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Kansas State Wildcats - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Week 11: 1-5, - 4.15 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.17% Yield)
Week 10: 1-6, - 4.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 57.86% Yield)
Week 9: 4-2, + 1.82 Units (6 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)
Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)
Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)
Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)
Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
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