The opening Rankings released by the Playoff Committee have tended to be a little controversial in recent years and that remains the case, even with the expanded format of the post-season that will be played this season.
The SEC has to be feel like they have been harshly treated, but some of the top teams in the other Conferences have yet to face one another and that will have a big impact in the final standings that will be released in early December. Of course, the top of the SEC has been very competitive and that has meant teams have all suffered losses, but the level of competition will not be ignored and even a two loss team from the Conference could end up getting the call to begin their journey towards a potential National Championship.
Winning a Conference Championship will be the best route in for any team playing in the Power 4 Conferences, but even the team losing in that Championship Game can expect to be given an invite.
However, it does mean that there is still little margin for error for any team that has suffered a loss and those teams will all be looking to at least sweep through the remainder of the regular season schedule.
It has been another tough year for the College Football Picks, but the frustration has been the inability to avoid the really poor week.
Week 5 and Week 10 have combined to go 1-11 from the twelve Picks made and that has destroyed the four weeks in between which have returned a profit.
There is still time to turn things around with the season being played right through to January, but a bounce back week is needed and the selections from Week 11 can be read below.
Florida Gators @ Texas Longhorns Pick: Injuries have proven to be a considerable issue for the Florida Gators (4-4), but the school have seen enough from Head Coach Billy Napier and a relatively young team to firmly give him their backing. Rumours had been rampant that the Gators could be looking for a new Head Coach at the end of the season, but by committing to Billy Napier the feeling is that the team can just focus on their performances on the field and building this school back up to the elite levels of the SEC.
They are someway behind the very best teams, but competitive losses to Tennessee and Georgia offer the Gators fans something positive to hold onto. The fact is that the team are not going to be losing too many players heading into 2025 and the bumps and bruises picked up this season could actually set Florida up for much better in twelve months time.
Consecutive games against some of the top SEC teams is going to be challenging for the Gators having lost to the Georgia Bulldogs in Week 10 and now travelling to the Texas Longhorns (7-1) in Week 11. To make matters tougher, the Longhorns are coming out of a Bye Week and will be looking to remain up alongside a number of other SEC teams who all have one loss in the Conference.
Texas' loss is to the Georgie Bulldogs and the Playoff Committee have not held that against the team with the Longhorns in as the Number 5 Seed in the first Rankings released. The reality is that the Longhorns can be involved in the twelve team Playoff as long as they are not beaten two more times, but they can almost guarantee a place in the post-season format to crown a National Champion if they can win out through the remainder of the regular season.
Having a second shot at beating the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game will be the aim for the Longhorns, although they will not care who they face in that Championship Game as long as they are competing.
The Longhorns should be able to get the better of the Florida Gators who are missing key players up and down the roster, but blowing them out may not be as easy to do. We have to expect the Longhorns to have used the Bye Week to really prepare for what they are going to face in Week 11, but running the ball against this Gators Defensive Line is not going to be easy and so the pressure will be on Quinn Ewers and/or Archie Manning at Quarter Back.
Whoever steps back to throw should be able to have some success, but protection has broken down around them when in third and long spots and that may be the case in this game too. This is how the Gators can keep this one competitive, even if they are down a couple of key Defensive Backs in this game, and the Offensive unit may be able to make enough plays to ensure Florida at least avoid being blown out and fail to get within this number set.
Moving the ball Offensively would have been a test for Florida if they were at full health, but they will likely be going with a third string Quarter Back. DJ Lagway is a potential star of the future at the position, but he looks set to miss out along with Graham Mertz and the Gators may not be able to score a lot of points in this one.
However, they can use the Defensive unit to at least set up decent field position and having a week to work with Aidan Warner should mean they can scheme a good situation for the inexperienced Quarter Back, especially at this level of College Football. He did not play well against the Bulldogs when coming into the game last week, but Warner should be more prepared taking the snaps in practice all week and even geting up to 14 points might be enough for Florida to cover.
We are at that stage of the season when teams want to run up the score to impress the Playoff Committee, but that doesn't feel as important with the expanded format being used in 2024. Previously the four team Playoff may have needed Texas to impress with a single loss already on the record, but this time the Longhorns may just call off the dogs if they get into a strong position and especially with a big game coming up at Arkansas.
It could just leave the vulnerable to a backdoor cover with the spread set where it is and Florida can ensure the final scoreline is competitive at the least.
Miami Hurricanes @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Pick: There are a handful of teams that remain undefeated in the Power 4 Conferences and the Miami Hurricanes (9-0) are the sole undefeated team in the ACC. They not only remain on track for a place in the Championship Game, but the Hurricanes have been set as the Number 4 Seed in the first Playoff Rankings released and will be targeting a spot in the twelve team bracket.
Even the most ardent of Miami fans will admit that the team have had to come through some very fortunate moments to remain unbeaten in 2024. Twice in a row the Hurricanes found a way to rally for a victory when it looked certain to be a defeat on the record in Week 5 and 6, although the team now look stronger and more comfortable.
Blowout wins over the Florida State Seminoles and Duke Blue Devils will have given the Miami Hurricanes a lot of belief and this Week 11 game might be the toughest left before the ACC Championship Game. Some Syracuse Orange fans will argue against that, but the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-4) are hosting and can be an awkward opponent, even if they have lost back to back games against Notre Dame and Virginia Tech.
The argument in favour of Syracuse being the toughest team left for Miami to face becomes stronger if Georgia Tech are without Haynes King again. The dual-threat Quarter Back has been a big miss for the Yellow Jackets, who have really struggled Offensively without Haynes King, and nothing is being given away about his status this week.
In reality the Yellow Jackets may not want to risk Haynes King with a single win needed to hit six for the season and likely earn a Bowl bid and that means giving him as much time as possible to be close to 100%. If he was able to suit up, the Yellow Jackets would give Miami something to think about when they have the ball in their hands, but the reality is that Georgia Tech are more likely going to have to rely on the backups.
Much will depend on the running game if the Yellow Jackets are going to make this competitive, although being able to punch through this Miami Defensive Line will be all the tougher without their starting Quarter Back. Aaron Philo, the third string Quarter Back, at least offered Georgia Tech a threat through the air, but the Hurricanes may be keen to load the box and dare Philo to do the same against them.
There have been some passing lanes that teams have exploited against Miami as they have tried to keep up with the Hurricanes, but Interceptions have been a real feature of the Hurricanes performances of late and those extra possessions can be critical as far as a line like this one is concerned.
Uncertainty might be the word to describe Georgia Tech's Offensive prospects for this game, but consistency would fit bet with Miami who have thrived with Cameron Ward at Quarter Back. He has surpassed all expectations and Ward has to be proud of his record this season having put up over 3000 passing yards and with 29 Touchdowns thrown to go with just 6 Interceptions.
That is all well and good, but Cameron Ward wants to do much more in 2024 and he should be able to have his way with this Yellow Jackets Defensive unit. It all should begin with the Miami Offensive Line who should be able to open up some big holes up front and that will mean Ward is playing out of third and manageable throughout the game.
Struggles to stop the run might have played a part in the recent passing numbers teams have put up against this Yellow Jackets Secondary, but Cameron Ward is going to want to air it out at times. There has been enough evidence over the course of the season to believe Cameron Ward can have another solid game and it may just lead to another big Miami win.
A backdoor cover could potentially come up if Miami are in a lead and pull some of the starters, but the Hurricanes want to continue to impress and see if that can help them improve their Seeding position in the College Football Playoffs over the coming month. The defeat to the Yellow Jackets last season will not have been forgotten either so the Hurricanes motivations are there to put together another solid outing and they can turnover the backups playing Quarter Back for Georgia Tech to secure an impressive road win.
Michigan Wolverines @ Indiana Hoosiers Pick: Four of the top eight in the opening College Football Playoff Rankings play in the Big Ten, but finding motivation from those Rankings should be easy for the Indiana Hoosiers (9-0).
Despite the unbeaten record, the Hoosiers are Ranked behind Ohio State and Penn State, who both have suffered a defeat, and the Oregon Ducks. There is little doubt it is a fact that will be pinned to the Indiana locker room door and the Hoosiers have to feel that they are still not given the respect they deserve as they put together an impressive 2024 season.
You simply cannot downplay how well Indiana have done this season- they have never won ten games in a season and this is already the first time they have won nine games in a single season since 1967. However, Head Coach Curt Cignetti will be trying to make sure his team are focused and the target has to be earning a spot in the College Football Playoff.
The Hoosiers will head into a Bye Week after this game and they will have a big 'prove it' opportunity when facing the Ohio State Buckeyes later this month. Before that, any game against the defending National Champions will bring headlines, even if the Michigan Wolverines (5-4) have fallen way short of the standards set last season.
Most expected the Wolverines to slip having won the National Championship, but then losing Head Coach Jim Harbaugh to the Los Angeles Chargers. Even then, this has been a significant drop off and the Wolverines have lost three of their last four games, which leaves them needing at least one more win to earn Bowl eligibility.
Earning that win here is a huge test for Michigan, a team that has struggled Offensively and going up against an extremely confident host.
In the Jim Harbaugh era, the Wolverines have been much more efficient at running the ball, but this has been an area of struggle in recent games. The Michigan Offensive Line have opened up lanes for 3.5 yards per carry and now they will try and impose themselves on an Indiana Defensive Line that have really clamped down on the run. It is a tall order for Michigan and will put a lot of pressure on the passing game, pressure that has been a little too much for the inexperienced Quarter Backs to deal with.
Jack Tuttle had to retire unexpectedly and Davis Warren and Alex Orji have not really been able to find their groove at the position. Without a running game to aid them, it may be tough for whoever lines up behind Center, especially as Indiana's pass rush have really created problems with teams backed up against them.
Like many teams that have big leads, the Hoosiers Secondary numbers are influenced by the fact that teams HAVE to throw against them. Even with that in mind, Indiana have really impressed on the Defensive side of the ball and the pressure up front has led to turnovers being created on the back side.
Extra possessions will give Indiana every chance of being able to pull clear in this game and to put a statement win on the board.
Kurtis Rourke was back in the win over the Michigan State Spartans, but the immediate focus for the Hoosiers will be to establish the run to open up the passing lanes. There is every chance this Indiana Offensive Line are capable of doing that, especially as the Wolverines have begun to look a little worn down up front, and it should mean Rourke and the Offensive unit are in third and manageable spots throughout the game.
With injuries to key Defensive Backs, Michigan may just struggle to prevent Indiana from doing whatever they please on this side of the ball and it could make it a long day in the office for the defending Champions. Kurtis Rourke has been extremely well protected by the Hoosiers Offensive Line, and so he should be able to pick apart the Wolverines Secondary if the backups are needed for long portions of the game.
Last week the Oregon Ducks piled up big Offensive yards in the blowout of the Wolverines- this Indiana team may not be as strong as Oregon, but they are very impressive and the Hoosiers might be able to match the big win that they produced over Michigan in 2020.
The Wolverines have three wins in a row over Indiana since then, but this Hoosiers team have been good to the Picks and they can wear down and pull away for another big win.
Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: Some feel the SEC has been harshly treated in the opening College Football Playoff Rankings, although those within the Conference have to believe there is time to prove those wrong.
That is less likely to be the case for the Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-7) who have had a tough season and who have lost all five Conference games played. The Bulldogs are not going to finish with a winning record, but they can play spoiler and that has to be the motivation to use to push themselves forward.
Beating the Tennessee Volunteers (7-1) would really hurt the chances of this team making the College Football Playoff, while the Volunteers have to make sure they are not overlooking Mississippi State and to the Week 12 game with the Georgia Bulldogs.
Tennessee are one of five SEC teams that have been beaten once and so it is going to be some challenge for the Volunteers to earn a spot in the Championship Game. Winning out would likely be good enough for the Volunteers, but, again, they have to make sure they don't overlook Mississippi State.
Having a young Quarter Back means there will be inconsistency from the Offensive unit and that has been the case for Tennessee in recent games. This game may be a little different for the Volunteers and that is mainly down to the struggles of the Mississippi State Bulldogs Defense, especially the Defensive Line when it comes to stopping the run.
Nick Iamaleava will really benefit from the Volunteers being able to rip off some big gains on the ground and they should have success against this Bulldogs Defensive Line allowing 5.3 yards per carry over the course of the season. In recent games against SEC rivals, that number has moved to 5.6 yards per carry and will mean Iamaleava is playing from third and manageable spots.
We may not see this Quarter Back's real development until next season, but Nick Iamaleava should have time in the pocket and there have been passing lanes to exploit against the Bulldogs Secondary. Interceptions have been a slight concern, but playing from third and manageable spots should make it that much more comfortable converting throws and Tennessee can move the ball up and down the field with some confidence.
There is going to be more to come from the Volunteers Offensively as players build experience, and the record in 2024 has been built on the impressive Defensive performances. Unlike the Bulldogs, the Volunteers Defensive Line have been very strong up front and clamped down on the run and making opponents a little one-dimensional with the play-calling just allows Tennessee to know what is coming.
Michael Van Buren Jr can have some success with the pass, but the Quarter Back is likely going to be under immense pressure from the Volunteers pass rush. In recent games it has perhaps been the reason for a couple of Interceptions thrown, and Van Buren Jr will have to be aware of the ability of the Tennessee Secondary in turning the ball over.
The Bulldogs have been a team that have been capable of scoring points to at least look competitive on the scoreboard, but that will not be easy against Tennessee. This is the last SEC game played at home by Tennessee and a couple of Interceptions may just swing this game firmly in favour of the home team who can cover this spread with a slightly wider win than Texas produced against Mississippi State.
Florida State Seminoles @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: College Football can swing wildly between season to season for any school, although even Head Coach Mike Norvell admitted that he could not see 2024 developing as it has for the Florida State Seminoles (1-8). Twelve months ago, the Seminoles were on the way to a 13-0 record at the end of the regular season before taking a huge amount of offence by not being included in the College Football Playoff, but everything that could go wrong has gone wrong this season.
They are 1-7 in the ACC and Florida State have lost five in a row, although the feeling is that the Seminoles will stick with their Head Coach and give him an opportunity for redemption next time around.
Next up for Florida State is a trip to South Bend to face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-1) who have been placed at Number 10 in the opening Playoff Rankings. The loss to the Northern Illinois Huskies is one that will mean Notre Dame have very little room for error through their remaining four games, but six wins in a row will have all associated with the Fighting Irish feeling better.
Head Coach Marcus Freeman will be well aware that without a Conference Championship Game, Notre Dame have to make sure they win out in the regular season. In reality, the Fighting Irish have not played a very tough schedule, which could potentially work against them when the final College Football Playoff Rankings are released, although fans will be cheering on the likes of Texas A&M and Louisville in their own respective Conferences.
If those two teams can win the SEC and/or ACC respectively, Notre Dame's wins over them will look all the better, but for now the only focus has to be on winning out.
The Fighting Irish will lean on their Offensive Line in this home game and they will certainly feel they can establish the run consistently against this Seminoles Defensive Line. They have a dual-threat Quarter Back in Riley Leonard who can help the ground game and Notre Dame will be playing in front of the chains.
With teams pounding the run right at them, the Seminoles have not really found the answer to at least slow opponents down. That is likely going to be the case again in Week 11 and Riley Leonard should be able to make some plays against this Secondary to just ensure the chains keep moving.
The Line of Scrimmage should be an area that Notre Dame can dominate on both sides of the ball and they will certainly believe they can largely shut down this injury-hit Florida State Offensive unit. Struggles to run the ball have contributed to the fact that the Seminoles have not scored more than 16 points in any game since their opener and the Fighting Irish should force Florida State to rely on the Quarter Back's arm.
Brock Glenn will continue his role as the starting Quarter Back in place of DJ Uiagalelei, but he has not been able to spark the Seminoles.
One of the main problems have been the struggles Florida State's Offensive Line have had in protecting their Quarter Back and Notre Dame should be able to rattle Brock Glenn whenever he is in third and long spots on the field. The pressure up front should mean it is a tough passing day for the Seminoles and Brock Glenn will just have to be aware of the potential turnover creating Secondary that Notre Dame will have on the field.
No one should doubt that this is a big spread, but the Fighting Irish are at home and Florida State have simply not been able to score enough points all season.
Defensively they can keep this somewhat competitive, but a turnover or two could allow Notre Dame to take advantage of a short field to just pull clear. Covering this spread will not be easy where it is, but the Fighting Irish have been dominating teams in recent weeks and they will likely want to surpass Miami's 22 point win over Florida State to just give the Playoff Committee something to consider.
Virginia Cavaliers @ Pittsburgh Panthers Pick: Despite the blowout loss to the SMU Mustangs, the Pittsburgh Panthers (7-1) still were given the Number 18 spot in the College Football Playoff Rankings. With four games left in the regular season, Pittsburgh may give themselves a chance of earning a spot in the Playoff if they can win out, which would include wins over the likes of Clemson and Louisville.
Even doing that may not be enough for the Panthers to earn a spot in the ACC Championship Game, but they would be hard to ignore as a potential top twelve team if they hold a 11-1 record.
Head Coach Pat Narduzzi is experienced and will only be focusing on helping his team win in Week 11 when Pittsburgh host Virginia Cavaliers (4-4) who have a 2-3 record within the Conference. The Bye Week came at a good time for the Cavaliers, who have lost three in a row, and Virginia will certainly expect to be a lot more competitive than they have been in their last two defeats.
Two wins are needed for the Cavaliers to hit Bowl eligibility with six wins on the board, but it is clear they are going to need a couple of upsets with four games left. They are facing some of the best teams in the ACC and Virginia also have to play Notre Dame so it is a big challenge for the Cavaliers with that losing run to overcome.
Opportunities will be there for Virginia, although they will need Anthony Colandrea to be at his best from the Quarter Back position.
The Cavaliers Offensive Line have been having trouble in recent games and they are not expected to have a lot of joy running the ball against the Panthers. Further issues have been evident in pass protection and Anthony Colandrea has been trying to make plays while evading the huge amount of pressure around him.
He should expect plenty of pressure from the Pittsburgh pass rush, although Colandrea can still have success throwing into this Secondary which has allowed plenty of yards through the air. Anthony Colandrea will have to be aware of the ball-hawking Defensive Backs and it will be tough to find consistency Offensively when being forced to step back and allow routes to develop down the field.
Inconsistency has also got to be expected from Eli Holstein, the freshman Quarter Back who may have hit a wall in recent games.
However, Holstein may be given a bit more support from the run game and the Pittsburgh Offensive Line will also likely be able to contain the Virginia pass rush and offer their Quarter Back time in the pocket. This should allow Eli Holstein to find success throwing the ball into the Virginia Secondary that has struggled to make plays as the competition has ramped up in the regular season.
The Panthers have won six of the last seven against the Virginia Cavaliers and being back at home should help them bounce back from the blowout loss to the SMU Mustangs. They look like they could have a bit more balance Offensively compared with the Virginia Cavaliers and that may see the Panthers work their way to a double digit victory and keep alive hopes of working their way into one of the twelve places in the College Football Playoff.
MY PICKS: Florida Gators + 21.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Miami Hurricanes - 10.5 Points @ 1.83 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Indiana Hoosiers - 14.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers - 24.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 25.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Panthers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Week 10: 1-6, - 4.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 57.86% Yield)
Week 9: 4-2, + 1.82 Units (6 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)
Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)
Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)
Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)
Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
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