Illness has proven to be too difficult to overcome for Alcaraz who finished behind Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud in the Group Stage of this tournament.
Losses to both of those opponents will have disappointed the Spaniard, but his attention will soon turn to 2025 and the Australian Open which begins in less than two months time. He might have won the French Open and Wimbledon, but Carlos Alcaraz will be looking to have a much bigger impact at the two hard court Grand Slam tournaments played next year.
Four players remain in contention for the title here in Turin and the two Semi Final matches are scheduled to be played on Saturday.
The home favourite, Jannik Sinner has to be the favourite to win the title, but Alexander Zverev, Taylor Frtiz and Casper Ruud will all be playing with some confidence having won at least two of the three matches played over the last week.
Alexander Zverev-Taylor Fritz over 23.5 games: The first Semi Final at the World Tour Finals is featuring two players that have been used to playing one another in big settings already in 2024.
The media have been pushing Alexander Zverev's credentials this week after a strong run through the Group Stage, but the German himself has been trying to cool down the growing expectations around him. He has previously won the Tour Finals and Zverev is one of the better indoor hard court players in the world, but the match up with Taylor Fritz is one that has frustrated him.
The defeat at Wimbledon will have really stung considering Alexander Zverev won the first two sets, and Taylor Fritz franked that victory by beating this opponent at the US Open on his way to the Final in New York City. A win at the Laver Cup means Taylor Fritz has beaten Alexander Zverev in three matches in a row and his own efforts here in Turin have been impressive enough to suggest the underdog could give Zverev all he can handle.
Both players will be keen to bring their best serving abilities onto the court for this one and it does feel like it will be a match where Break Points will be hard to create.
Alexander Zverev has been really impressive behind serve throughout the tournament- he 'only' won 71% of his service points in the last match against Carlos Alcaraz having won at least 80% in each of his first two matches, but that number against the Spaniard meant Zverev only allowed 2 Break Points in the entire match.
It has certainly allowed Alexander Zverev to play with some freedom on the return, although he had not been at his best in that side of his tennis before the victory over Carlos Alcaraz.
Improving on the return will be a huge test for Alexander Zverev considering he has won just 28% of points played on the Taylor Fritz serve in four matches in 2024. The American has perhaps not served as well as he can at his best, but it is clearly a shot that bothers Alexander Zverev who has not really found consistent answers to deal with it.
Since beating Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz has also had issues on the return of serve, while his returning numbers in the head to head with Alexander Zverev are not that much stronger than the higher Ranked player.
It all points to a tight match that could feature two very competitive sets at the very least.
The underdog is appealing considering how well he has matched up with Alexander Zverev, but the latter deserves respect for putting together the stronger week so far. Both players could serve well enough to see this one surpass the total games line set, even in a two set match, and that looks the best approach to what could be a really good Semi Final.
Casper Ruud + 5.5 games v Jannik Sinner: It would be foolish to suggest that anything other than a win for Jannik Sinner is the most likely outcome of this Semi Final.
However, that does not mean that the handicap does not look a little too wide and not giving Casper Ruud enough respect.
It is far from ideal having to play the second Group match on Friday and then the Semi Final on Saturday, especially as Casper Ruud will have twenty-four hours less than Jannik Sinner to prepare for this match. He was dragged into a three set match with Andrey Rublev, although the win will have given Ruud some confidence that he may have been lacking before the tournament began.
Casper Ruud was able to beat Carlos Alcaraz in the Group too and he did give Alexander Zverev a test before going down so there is every chance that the Norwegian can at least test Jannik Sinner.
Beatng the World Number 1 is a different challenge than merely trying to keep things competitive and the home crowd are going to be firmly behind their player. So far it has helped Jannik Sinner come through his three matches very impressively and the Grand Slam titles won in Melbourne and New York City have just underlined the very strong performances Sinner has put together on the hard courts.
His serve has been very impressive and that has been evident through the week in Turin, where Jannik Sinner reached the Final twelve months ago. The likelihood is that Jannik Sinner will dominate on the serve here, but the conditions should allow Casper Ruud to at least try and dictate the points behind his own serve and that should mean he has an opportunity to keep this one close on the scoreboard.
Two previous matches between these players have both been played on an indoor hard court at the same event in Vienna in 2020 and 2021. Both were won by Jannik Sinner, although the second was easier on the scoreboard, and he is capable of blowing any opponent away on this surface.
That will always be a concern when you are on the other side of the net when opposing the World Number 1, but Ruud has played well enough to perhaps go down in a couple of competitive sets. Despite the impressive performances from Sinner, he has not been able to cover this handicap mark against Alex De Minaur, Taylor Fritz or Daniil Medvedev and it may be another relatively comfortable, but not a blowout win.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev-Taylor Fritz Over 23.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Casper Ruud + 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
World Tour Finals Update: 9-3, + 4.46 Units (12 Units Staked, + 37.17% Yield)
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