With the calendar ticking over to November, the College Football regular season enters the final furlong towards the new Playoff.
The top teams in the Power 4 Conferences will be targeting the Championship Game first and foremost and Week 10 is another where a number of big games are set that will begin to separate the pretenders from the contenders.
After the Week 9 bounce back, three of the last four College Football Weeks have returned a profit. However, there is still some way to go to get this season back in the black and it is important to build on the 4-2 run last time out.
Ohio State Buckeyes @ Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: The expanded College Football Playoff does offer a room in the final twelve for a team that has not won a Conference Championship, especially if that team is playing in a solid Conference like the Big Ten.
With teams already holding plenty of losses throughout the SEC, there is an opportunity here for the likes of the Penn State Nittany Lions (7-0) and Ohio State Buckeyes (6-1) ahead of this huge game in Week 10 of the College Football season.
Both will still have major ambitions of winning the Big Ten Conference, although Oregon and Indiana will have something to say about that, and this is a big opportunity to put a statement win on the board that will impress the Committee when the final Playoff selections are made.
You have to feel there is a bit more pressure on the Buckeyes who have already suffered a very close loss at the Oregon Ducks- losing twice in a Conference where we could have two unbeaten teams competing for the Championship would make it that much tougher for Ohio State to make their claim.
In saying that, the unbeaten Nittany Lions will not want to lose any momentum by being beaten by the Buckeyes again with seven straight losses against this rival having played in the same Division within the Big Ten in previous years. The Nittany Lions are 5-2 against the spread in that seven game losing run, which underlines the fact they are a competitive outfit that tends to do better than expected and Head Coach James Franklin will be hoping that means winning outright in 2024.
There are concerns about the Penn State Quarter Back position after Drew Allar had to sit out the second half in the win over the Wisconsin Badgers. It sounds like he will be a game time decision with the Nittany Lions preparing Beau Pribula to take the snaps after he came in and had 98 second half passing yards with a Touchdown in the win over the Badgers.
Of course facing the Buckeyes Defensive unit is a much different challenge, even if the Quarter Back will be playing behind an Offensive Line that has found a way to give them time in the pocket. This will be important to try and find the few holes that have been in the Buckeyes Secondary in recent games, but it will be a test for either Drew Allar or Beau Pribula and the bigger impact they could have on the game is not turning the ball over.
The latter showed off his ability to move the ball on the ground last week in his second half appearance and that will also be important to just keep Penn State in front of the down and distance. The battle at the Line of Scrimmage is going to be a tough one all day, but it feels like the Nittany Lions will persist and that could just help in what could be a field battle kind of day.
Ohio State were not very convincing out of their Bye Week following the loss to the Ducks, but they did hold on to beat the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Improvements will be needed if the Buckeyes are going to avoid a second, potentially devastating loss when it comes to the season ambitions, and injuries to the Offensive Line have come at a bad time.
It may mean the Buckeyes are not able to run the ball as effectively as they would like and that will put some pressure on Will Howard at Quarter Back. We have not seen the Nittany Lions generate a massive pass rush of late, but playing a third string Left Tackle is a big advantage and it may just mean they can disrupt things a little more at the Line of Scrimmage, which is so important when it comes to stalling drives.
Once again, the Buckeyes, like the Nittany Lions, will look to avoid the turnovers that can swing what is a potentially tight game. The home team will be motivated by being set as the underdog against Ohio State again and this has the makings of a game that may come down to the wire, which could make the points in hand the telling difference when it comes to the window.
Indiana Hoosiers @ Michigan State Spartans Pick: Fans will be keeping an eye on the early kick off slot on Saturday in Week 10 of the College Football season, but the Indiana Hoosiers (8-0) Coaching staff and players have to focus on their own job. It is a real surprise to see Indiana as one of three teams with an unbeaten record at the top of the Big Ten Conference, but the Hoosiers do not want the run to end now and there is a big ambition to not only make the Conference Championship Game, but to earn a spot in the twelve team College Football Playoffs.
The next three games will be key for the Hoosiers as they prepare to face Michigan Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes either side of a Bye Week.
First up is the Michigan State Spartans (4-4) who were disappointingly beaten by rivals Michigan in Week 9 and who still have work to do when it comes to earning Bowl eligibility. This is a rivalry game for both the Spartans and Hoosiers so motivation will not be hard to find, while the road team has won four in a row in the head to head series.
The last was a win for the Spartans twelve months ago as they upset the Hoosiers as the underdog.
It won't have been forgotten by the Indiana players as they prepare to travel into hostile territory and the major question remains the status of Quarter Back Kurtis Rourke. He has been announced as the starter having missed the Week 9 win over the Washington Huskies, but Rourke will just have to show he has overcome any mental demons that can be formed after injury.
The return of Kurtis Rourke will give the passing game a jolt, but the main focus for the Hoosiers is to get behind this Offensive Line and bully teams on the ground. Tayven Jackson may not have offered the same passing threat to prevent teams from trying to load the box, but that is not the case with Rourke back and Michigan State have really not been able to clamp down on the run with any authority.
This is important to help the returning Quarter Back to ease into the game and Kurtis Rourke is expected to have time in the pocket when he does step back to throw into this Spartans Secondary.
Michigan State's challenge will be keeping up with the Indiana Offensive unit that will be feeling confident with their starting Quarter Back in the lineup. Four losses in five games has just seen the strong start to the season disappear, while the seasonal average of 21 points per game is not going to cut it.
However, even getting to that average mark against this Indiana Defense is going to be a huge test for the hosts and may be the reason the Hoosiers are not only unbeaten at the final whistle, but covering the spread set for the seventh time in a row.
A bit more consistency from Quarter Back Aidan Chiles has helped, but the Spartans Offensive Line have not really been able to create running lanes to ensure their signal caller is playing from manageable down and distance. Trying to run the ball against Indiana has been even more of an issue and so it feels like this is a game that is going to come down to the arm of Aidan Chiles.
There is a bit of room in the Indiana Secondary that could be exploited, although teams might have had more success by being forced to throw fifty times a game to keep up on the scoreboard. However, Aidan Chiles will be hoping the Offensive Line can stand up to the pass rush pressure and then also have to be very much aware of the turnover creating nature of the Hoosiers Defensive Backs.
A backdoor cover cannot be ruled out with the spread set as it is, but double digit wins have been the norm for Indiana this season and they did win by 24 points and 8 points in their last two visits to Michigan State. Doing the same again is entirely possible and that would mean a cover of this mark as the Hoosiers very much keep the Cinderella run going.
Kansas State Wildcats @ Houston Cougars Pick: It was not nearly as 'easy' as the Kansas State Wildcats (7-1) were expected to make it, but a win in a rivalry game will still have boosted the confidence. The Big 12 has not been the most impressive of Conferences this season and there is every chance that the Wildcats could compete for a Championship, which would mean they are heading into the College Football Playoff.
An upcoming Bye Week will allow the Wildcats to really focus on the last run, but it would not be nearly as meaningful if they were to lose in Week 10. In fact any loss before the final regular season game at the Iowa State Cyclones may mean missing out on the Big 12 Championship Game and so there is a pressure on Kansas State to remain focused.
Next up is the Houston Cougars (3-5) who have won two of their last three games and may still feel they have a strong enough ending to the season to earn a Bowl Game. It has been something of a feast or famine event at the recent Houston games with their five Conference losses either ending in a blowout loss or an outright win.
They are at home in Week 10 and Houston may still have a big impact on the final standings in the Big 12 with two of their remaining four games being against Kansas State and BYU.
Houston perhaps do not match up as well with the Kansas State Wildcats as they would like and that could make things challenging when they have the ball. The Cougars much prefer to run the ball than throw it, but that plays into the strengths of this Wildcats unit and may mean the Cougars are a touch inconsistent through the Four Quarters.
The Cougars are not likely to lose faith in the run, but it could be a real struggle and that will mean leaving Zeon Chriss in third and long spots. Rather than being a dual-threat Quarter Back, Chriss is someone that will run first and pass second, but that may mean he is not able to exploit the issues that Kansas State have in the Secondary.
Donovan Smith was not involved in the win over the Utah Utes last week, but his status is unclear. Even if he was available, the Houston Offensive Line could have problems keeping the Wildcats out of the backfield when the Quarter Back drops back to throw and it could lead to the extra possessions to help Kansas State ease clear in this one.
The Line of Scrimmage is always important and the Kansas State Wildcats look to have an edge on both sides of the ball- while they have shown they can clamp down on the run, the Wildcats Offensive Line have thrived up front and this Houston team is not expected to have the same stopping abilities as their visitors.
Avery Johnson will benefit from being in third and manageable spots, while also employing play-action to attack this Cougars Secondary down the field. It should give the Wildcats a chance to move the ball with more consistency and they should be ending drives by punching the ball into the End Zone rather than settling for Field Goals.
Last season, the Wildcats blew out Houston at home.
This one will be closer, but a two Touchdown win looks likely for the road team as they remain on track for a spot in the Big 12 Conference Championship Game. The scare last week should help keep the team focused and Houston have taken a number of big losses in the Big 12 already, with this game more likely to trend that way rather than in an upset for the Cougars.
Kentucky Wildcats @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: Beating the Alabama Crimson Tide ahead of their last Bye Week will feel like a big win for the Tennessee Volunteers (6-1), but there is work to do. Having already suffered a defeat, the win over the Crimson Tide was very important for Tennessee and it is important for the Volunteers to keep the positive run going before they play the Georgia Bulldogs in Week 11.
They face the Kentucky Wildcats (3-5) in a rivalry game out of the Bye and it has been a tough year for the Wildcats in the SEC where they have a 1-5 record. The competitive defeat to Georgia stands out, but the Wildcats have not been nearly as competitive in losses to South Carolina and Florida.
One of the major talking points ahead of this SEC game is going to surround the Kentucky Offensive unit and whether they can score enough points. They average 19 points per game on the season, but it has been much more a struggle when stepping up to the SEC level and this Volunteers Defensive unit deserves plenty of respect.
In reality the Wildcats do not match up well with Tennessee and it all begins right on the Line of Scrimmage as Kentucky would love to establish the run. Unfortunately they are facing a Volunteers Defensive Line that have clamped down on the run all season and the impressive numbers being produced in the SEC suggests they can force Kentucky to try and convert third and long spots on the field.
There is also an uncertainty about the Kentucky Quarter Back position which saw the team take out their starter in a bid to spark the Offense last time out. It didn't work to say the least and it is unlikely that either Brock Vandagriff or Gavin Wimsatt are going to have the confidence to make enough plays against this Secondary, even if the Volunteers have allowed some teams to have passing successes.
Interceptions have been a major problem for Kentucky and now they have to avoid giving up those extra possessions against a Defensive unit that will thrive on picking passes off and shortening the field for their own team.
Covering this kind of spread might be possible if the Tennessee Offensive unit can play up to the level that the Defense have been capable of reaching, but there has been some issues with a freshman Quarter Back. They will give Nick Iamaleava all of the snaps, knowing he will benefit in 2025, but the key for Tennessee is easing any pressure on the young man.
After recent performances from the Kentucky Defensive Line, the Volunteers should be able to give the ball to Dylan Sampson and expect the Running Back to punch through some big holes. Earlier in the season the Wildcats had shown an excitement to stop the run, but that has not been the case in recent games and this Tennessee Offensive Line can open the lanes for Sampson.
Ensuring the team are playing from third and manageable spots is huge for Tennessee and Nick Iamaleava, who will be asked not to take too many risks against the Wildcats Secondary.
It feels like Tennessee could come out of the Bye Week to really punish Kentucky on the ground, especially if the Wildcats are looking to get into their own Bye to just freshen up. The long season without a break can be tough for any team to deal with and that may have contributed to the recent Kentucky struggles to stop the run.
Covering this spread will be tough, especially as Tennessee are just 2-8 against the spread in the last ten against Kentucky. Two of the last three Volunteers wins have been by fewer than 7 points, but the middle of those wins was an absolute blowout and Tennessee could run right through Kentucky with a couple of turnovers helping them pull clear of the mark.
MY PICKS: Penn State Nittany Lions + 3.5 Points @ 1.72 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Indiana Hoosiers - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Kansas State Wildcats - 13 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers - 17.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Arkansas Razorbacks + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Oklahoma State Cowboys + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
USC Trojans - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Week 9: 4-2, + 1.82 Units (6 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)
Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)
Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)
Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)
Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
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