The second Group at the ATP World Tour Finals is set to open up with a couple of matches on Monday, Day 2 of the tournament.
Jannik Sinner's opening win will have given the home fans plenty of reasons to smile, but it does feel like this Group is much more competitive all around. That could mean a battle-hardened opponent for Sinner in the Semi Final, assuming the World Number 1 will back up the victory over Alex De Minaur to move through this Group Stage of the tournament.
You have to believe the fans are very much hoping that the two top Ranked players in the world are able to work their way through to a meeting for the title next weekend, but the other six players competing in Turin will have something to say about that.
Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Casper Ruud: He was eligible to play at the ATP World Tour Finals in 2022, but had to withdraw with an injury, and Carlos Alcaraz was beaten in the Semi Final by Novak Djokovic twelve months ago. Winning the French Open and Wimbledon titles meant the Spaniard was always going to have enough Ranking points to return to Turin, although there had been some doubt about his participation after losing in the Quarter Final in Shanghai.
The Spaniard has arrived for the tournament and begins with a match against an out of form Casper Ruud, who missed the ATP World Tour Finals last year. Two years ago Casper Ruud surprisingly reached the Final of the end of year tournament, but matching that would perhaps be a bigger upset than it was in 2022.
This is mainly down the fact that Casper Ruud has played ten matches since being eliminated from the US Open and he has shockingly lost eight of those.
A solid, but unspectacular hard court player, Casper Ruud is going to have to find some strong rhythm very early, especially with this very tough opener in the Group. Losing would not mean elimination, but it would put Ruud under immediate pressure.
Avoiding an opening defeat will not be easy against someone like Carlos Alcaraz, who has produced some very strong hard court numbers even if he has failed to have the kind of impact hoped at the Australian Open and US Open. The Second Round loss in New York City was a real blow for the player who had won the previous two Grand Slam events played and also finished with the Silver Medal at the Paris Olympics.
The World Number 2 did win the title in Beijing since the US Open, but the early loss at the Paris Masters will have knocked some of the confidence.
Even then, Carlos Alcaraz has won all four previous meetings with Casper Ruud and the last three have been on the hard courts. There has been a big advantage in favour of the Spaniard when it comes down to their performances in return games, and that has also been evident in the head to head on the hard courts where Carlos Alcaraz has held 85% of service games compared with Casper Ruud's 73% mark.
On current form, Casper Ruud will find it tough to turn that around and Carlos Alcaraz should be able to put together a relatively comfortable win.
Alexander Zverev - 2.5 games v Andrey Rublev: He has previously won the ATP World Tour Finals, although not in Turin, and that will give Alexander Zverev belief in his ability to pick up the title again later this week. The top two players in the World Rankings may have moved past Zverev, but he has shown he can more than compete when at his best and on either the hard courts or clay courts.
Neither Carlos Alcaraz nor Jannik Sinner had to be beaten when Alexander Zverev won the Paris Masters earlier this month. However, it is an important title and on indoor conditions that the Tour likes the World Tour Finals to try and match, which should give the German another boost in confidence.
He will learn plenty about himself in this Group with Carlos Alcaraz due to be met, but Alexander Zverev has to focus on beating Andrey Rublev, who may be the biggest threat to preventing him from earning a spot in the Semi Final.
It has been a mixed season for Andrey Rublev, although he still tends to play his best tennis on the hard courts.
However, the World Number 9 has lost three of his last four matches and there is a feeling that Andrey Rublev will benefit from having a few weeks away from the Tour in order to just reset. He has been a consistent top ten player, but breaking through into the top five regularly has been much more challenging and perhaps underline some of the problems Rublev has had when facing the elite players on the Tour.
2023 saw Andrey Rublev getting the better of Alexander Zverev on three different occasions, but their last match in 2023 ended in favour of the latter and that was also at the World Tour Finals. It was a day in which Zverev served much more effectively than Andrey Rublev and we could see something similar when they meet on Day 2 in opening Group matches.
Over the course of the season, Alexander Zverev has been slightly more effective behind serve, while the recent Andrey Rublev form may just mean he is lacking in confidence in his bid for the upset.
MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.65 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Alexander Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 1.66 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
World Tour Finals Update: 1-1, - 0.30 Units (2 Units Staked, - 15% Yield)
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