There are still some teams waiting to head into their Bye Week, but Thanksgiving Weekend is usually a time when most feel the Playoffs really come looming over the horizon.
It is the same feeling in 2024 with the holidays a few days away and teams are beginning to separate out in both Conferences.
Schedule makers for the NFL have been encouraged to load the back end of the schedules with a lot of Divisional games and that is certainly the case in Week 12, beginning with the AFC North game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns. There are plenty of others to come, including in the NFC East and North and in the AFC West and we will begin to see the Wild Card Race take shape too.
After a strong run for the NFL Picks, Week 11 meant back to back losing weeks, although not nearly as poorly as the Week 10 results.
Bouncing back has to be the ambition in Week 12 ahead of the Thanksgiving Day games, and to make sure the numbers are moving back in a positive direction for the overall season.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders Pick: 2024 has proven to be a productive season for the Washington Commanders (7-4) and they are certainly going to be challenging for a Playoff spot. However, it should be noted that they have been a team that have yet to really prove themselves against one of the top teams in the NFL after going down to a defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday Night Football last time out.
That has dropped the Commanders behind the Eagles in the NFC East, but the three games to be played before Washington meet their rivals again gives the team an opportunity to bounce back. It will have felt like a mini-Bye for the Commanders and the players, which should offer an opportunity for some to feel a little healthier, while a full Bye is coming up shortly that will really put the Commanders in a position to focus towards the end of the regular season.
If the Coaching staff were looking at the schedule back in August, this would have looked another challenging Divisional game for Washington, but it has been a season of disappointment for the Dallas Cowboys (3-7). There is an inevitability to big changes being made in the off-season with Head Coach Mike McCarthy almost certainly playing out his contract over the next several weeks.
He has not been helped by the injury picked up by Quarter Back Dak Prescott, although that cannot be an excuse with the Cowboys struggling before he went down. Cooper Rush proved himself to be a capable backup when playing in that role before, but he has not been able to turn the tide on the season and the Cowboys will be heading out on the road having been blown out at home on Monday Night Football by the Houston Texans.
A short week and with a number of banged up players really does not bode well for the Cowboys, who are also playing on Thanksgiving Day as is tradition in a few days time.
The key for the Cowboys will be to keep this game competitive and try and lean on the Offensive Line to open up some running lanes for the team. Unfortunately the Line is banged up and the Running Backs used have not really lived up to their reputation, which may mean it is far from easy for Dallas to have success on the ground like others have managed against the Washington Defensive Line.
Playing closer to the Line of Scrimmage and daring Cooper Rush to beat them with his arm will be the plan for Head Coach Dan Quinn, who earned the Washington top Coaching role thanks to his performance as the Cowboys Defensive Co-Ordinator in recent years. Dan Quinn will be well aware of the strengths and weaknesses of Quarter Back Cooper Rush, as well as a number of the other players on the Dallas roster and that should certainly mean the Commanders are well prepared.
Playing against this Dallas Defensive unit should also help Jayden Daniels and the Commanders Offensive unit get back on track after a couple of inconsistent efforts against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles. The Quarter Back has been a little banged up, which has perhaps lessened his enthusiasm for running the ball, but having a bit more time to prepare should help Daniels.
He also has both Running Backs available after Brian Robinson Jr returned against the Eagles and the Commanders Offensive Line could get back on track by opening up rushing lanes.
Jayden Daniels has not been at his best since taking a hard shot to the ribs, but it will help so much if he is playing in front of the chains as expected in this game. This makes completions that much easier to come by and the Cowboys have been worn down in games with the team struggling to extend drives and having the Defensive players out on the field for far too long.
In recent seasons Dallas have had the better of this Divisional rival, but the roles look reversed now and Dan Quinn is not expected to show much mercy if his Washington team are in control. Instead he may want his team to just show what the Cowboys have been missing and the Commanders may end up pulling away to become the latest team to crush Dallas.
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears Pick: It looked like the Chicago Bears (4-6) were going to snap their three game losing run and get the 2024 season back on track when driving down the field and lining up for the game-winning Field Goal against the Green Bay Packers. However, it sums up the recent era in Chicago that the Field Goal was blocked and the Bears fell to a fourth defeat in a row, a run that started with the ridiculous Hail Mary given up to the Washington Commanders.
Head Coach Matt Eberflus has heard the disappointment coming out of the stands and his time in charge in Chicago is almost certainly coming to a close.
He is trying to remain focused, but that was a hard defeat to take in Week 11 and the Chicago Bears will do well to recover from the setback. To make matters tougher, they are facing another NFC North rival in the Minnesota Vikings (8-2) who have won three in a row and very much looking like a team that will continue to push the Detroit Lions and exceed all pre-season expectations.
So many believed this would be a transitional season for the Vikings with Sam Darnold at Quarter Back, but it has been a career best year for a player who has bounced around the NFL.
Interceptions have been a little troubling for Sam Darnold during this three game winning run, and he would certainly be given much more help if the Offensive Line can go back to helping the Vikings run the ball as effectively as they had been earlier in the season. There is an opportunity to get back on track against this Bears Defensive Line, which has been the weakness on this side of the ball, and keeping Darnold in third and manageable would make a huge difference for the Quarter Back.
The Bears have not really been generating a fierce pass rush so being in strong positions on the field should allow Sam Darnold to have the time to target some of his big time playmakers down the field. The Chicago Secondary deserves plenty of respect, but shutting down the likes of Justin Jefferson completely is always a tough challenge and the Vikings should have a decent day when they have the ball in hand.
Steering clear of turnovers is important for Minnesota, but doing so will give the Defensive unit every chance of rattling Caleb Williams.
The rookie Quarter Back had a decent game against the Green Bay Packers, but this Minnesota Defense is going to offer plenty of unfamiliar looks which can confuse even those players with a lot of experience behind them. Caleb Williams has not seen a Brian Flores Defensive unit before and he is still operating behind an Offensive Line that has struggled when it comes to pass protection.
Running the ball against the Vikings is not going to be easily achieved and that means Caleb Williams needs time for routes to develop down the field. It will give Brian Flores the opportunity to dial up some fierce pass rushes and those are likely to get home, which in turn could lead to a couple of errant throws from Williams.
Picking those off would really give Minnesota the edge and they might take advantage of the scheduling spot.
Chicago are playing in the early kick off on Thanksgiving Day and it could be tough for the players to recover before that game at the Detroit Lions after losing in the manner they did against the Green Bay Packers. With the Vikings going about their business without much fanfare, Minnesota may make the big Defensive plays to ensure they can win and cover and continue their march towards the Playoffs with a solid win at Soldier Field.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins Pick: The Buffalo Bills look like a genuine contender to win the Super Bowl, but the rest of the AFC East have been a big disappointment this season.
There were some serious expectations with the New York Jets and the same applies for the Miami Dolphins (4-6), although injuries have been a big factor for the latter and the record they currently hold. Tua Tagovailoa is back at Quarter Back and that has sparked the Dolphins to back to back wins, which have kept them interested in making a run to the post-season as long as they can maintain momentum.
They may only be slightly behind Miami in terms of the record, but that path looks much tougher for the New England Patriots (3-7) who would have been expecting some inconsistencies with a rookie Quarter Back likely taking over from veteran Jacoby Brissett at some point.
Drake Maye has not played badly at all since coming into the lineup, but the Patriots have to expect some ups and downs. They have won two of their last four games, but one or two poor throws have led to Interceptions and that is part and parcel of having a rookie come into what was expected to be a team that struggles again.
Playing against Miami has been tough for the Patriots in recent years after Tom Brady departed, but even with the future Hall of Fame player at Quarter Back, visits to South Florida have been challenging. This will be a tough test for Drake Maye, but he may be able to lean on the Offensive Line to at least help establish the run and put him in the best position to have some success.
Being in front of the chains will give Drake Maye a real opportunity to attack this Dolphins Secondary, although the Quarter Back will have to be aware of the tendencies the Defensive Backs have in turning the ball over.
Running the ball will also give Maye a bit more time to survey the field before making his throws and the Patriots may have some success moving the ball, which could also mean a potential upset is on the cards.
That looks unlikely on the last couple of outings from the Miami Offensive unit, but Tua Tagovailoa will have to respect the levels being produced by the Patriots. The Miami Offensive Line have not been as consistent in helping the team run the ball in recent games as they would have hoped and the Dolphins will have some issues trying to establish the ground game against New England.
If the Dolphins are not able to find much consistency on the ground, Tua Tagovailoa may have a slightly more difficult afternoon throwing the ball than many would expect. The record is not the best, but the Patriots have been competitive on the Defensive side of the ball and recent games have seen the Secondary play well with help from the pass rush up front.
Slowing down the Miami passing game is never going to be easy, but forcing the Quarter Back to play out of third and long will help New England. They can certainly stall a few drives and that may give the Patriots an opportunity to keep this Divisional game competitive and make use of the points being given to them.
Miami should win, but covering becomes harder when you think they have a Thanksgiving Day date with the Green Bay Packers in just four days time. They may not have their very best effort for the Patriots, but instead look to do just enough to win and New England are certainly playing well enough Defensively to avoid any blowout defeat here.
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders Pick: They snapped an eight game losing run to the Las Vegas Raiders (2-8) earlier this season and the Denver Broncos (6-5) will be looking to back up their very strong victory in Week 11 against the Atlanta Falcons. There is still a hope that the Broncos will surprisingly earn a spot in the Playoffs in Sean Payton's second season as Head Coach in Denver and they are certainly facing the Raiders at a good time.
The loss in Miami last time out means Las Vegas have lost six in a row and the team have been struggling with injury and players being out of form.
While they will be motivated in trying to avoid a sweep at the hands of a Divisional rival, this is not an ideal spot for the Raiders who will be playing on Black Friday at the home of the Kansas City Chiefs. Head Coach Antonio Pierce has to be feeling some pressure during this losing run, especially with new voices like Tom Brady likely to be having an input in future decisions made by the franchise.
Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell have both had playing time at Quarter Back, but neither has really played well enough for the Raiders and this is a team that is likely going to be looking for a new player to come in when the NFL Draft comes around. Neither has been helped by the issues that the Raiders have had when it comes to running the ball and they are not expected to find much room up front against this Denver Defensive Line.
Struggles to run the ball has put a lot of pressure on the Raiders Offensive Line and they have not offered a lot of protection or time for the Quarter Back. This is likely going to be the case against the Denver pass rush and the pressure up front will make it tough to throw the ball against the Broncos Secondary.
Brock Bowers is likely going to step up and offer Gardner Minshew someone to target, but the Quarter Back has been inconsistent and there is every chance he makes one or two poor decisions that ultimately offers Denver some extra possessions.
Unlike the Raiders, the Denver Broncos should be able to have some success on the ground and that is likely going to give Bo Nix an opportunity to build on recent solid performances in his rookie season.
Sean Payton's Offensive mind has certainly helped Bo Nix and he should be able to expose some of the issues the Raiders have had in the Secondary. Avoiding mistakes is one of the big tests for any rookie Quarter Back and in recent games Nix has been able to do that very effectively.
He should be able to make enough plays to keep the chains moving and this could lead to another solid win for the Broncos against this Divisional rival. The spread looks considerable on the road, but Las Vegas look like a team that is struggling to compete and the focus may soon shift to trying to put their best foot forward when facing the Kansas City Chiefs in a few days time.
Denver's Defensive unit can make a couple of big plays for the team to swing things in their favour and the Broncos may just keep their Playoff hopes on track with a solid victory on the road here.
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Revenge will be on the minds of the Green Bay Packers (7-3) after narrowly being beaten by the San Francisco 49ers (5-5) in the NFL Playoffs at the end of the 2023 season. They looked to be in control of that game before the late defeat, but that game was played at the home of San Francisco and this time Green Bay have home advantage.
A late blocked Field Goal helped the Packers continue their dominance of NFC North rivals Chicago Bears, but they are still looking up at the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings despite a healthy seven wins on the board. Winning the Division will be challenging considering what we have seen from the Lions, but the Green Bay Packers are firmly on the march towards a post-season spot.
They can really begin to knock off some of their rivals if Green Bay are able to get the better of the 49ers, especially after San Francisco dropped back to 0.500 after a surprising home loss to the Seattle Seahawks.
Adding to the disappointment during the week was the news that Nick Bosa has been ruled out for this Week 12 game having finished the game last week watching on from the sidelines. Even worse, San Francisco have announced that starting Quarter Back Brock Purdy will be missing on Sunday and that means Brandon Allen will be getting the call.
There is no doubting that Allen will be familiar with the San Francisco system having been the third-string backup for the 49ers last season. However, the Quarter Back has not started a game in the NFL since 2021, while a 2-7 record as a starter is not exactly going to inspire a lot of confidence.
Brandon Allen does benefit from playing with Christian McCaffrey and this San Francisco Offensive Line and there is every chance that the 49ers will at least establish the run and keep their backup Quarter Back in front of the chains. Earlier in the season there were signs that the Packers would be better at dealing with the run, but they are still giving up healthy yardage on the ground and McCaffrey should have a decent game.
Of course, the Packers may not have as much respect for the passing game as they would if Brock Purdy was playing behind Center. It may mean creeping up to the Line of Scrimmage to make a real effort to stop the run and force Brandon Allen to beat them through the air, although San Francisco are likely to counter with some eye candy distractions behind the Offensive Line to see if they can establish the run in other ways.
The Quarter Back is not expected to hold onto the ball for too long and there are some solid playmakers around him, which should give the 49ers a chance to keep the chains moving. Staying with the Packers is key though as no one would really want to put the burden of play on the shoulders of Brandon Allen.
And the 49ers do have a Defensive unit that can at least step up and help their backup Quarter Back by putting the clamps down on the powerful Green Bay Offense run by Jordan Love.
Much of the Packers successes have come behind the Offensive Line and having Josh Jacobs churn out some big yards on the ground, although stopping the run has been something that the 49ers have long prided themselves on. It is strength versus strength along the Line of Scrimmage in this Week 12 game, but Green Bay will not shy away from handing the ball off and making sure they are playing out of third and manageable situations at the very least.
In their Playoff meeting, the Packers did have success with Aaron Jones when it came to running the ball so they have to believe that Josh Jacobs can do the same.
The Offensive Line have enjoyed run blocking, but have also been effective at giving Jordan Love time to make his plays down the field. Without Nick Bosa, San Francisco may not be able to rattle the Quarter Back and the improving play of the Secondary may be exploited if there is time to make the throws against them.
Green Bay are still hoping that one or two players can really come out of the pack in the Receiving corps and really offer Jordan Love a consistent threat through the remainder of the regular season and Playoffs. Christian Watson was back in the thick of things last week, but has to show more consistency if he is going to become the main threat in the passing game, while Jordan Love will be keen to just clear up some of his own Interceptions.
Doing that should give Jordan Love an opportunity to get one over on the San Francisco 49ers, especially with Brandon Allen at Quarter Back for the road team. Some teams have been able to step up and rally around their backup, but the Packers look strong enough Offensively to force Allen to have to play some big plays and that could see things unravel.
The Packers do play on Thanksgiving Day, which could be a potential distraction in some circumstances- however, there has been a real rivalry with the 49ers in recent season with plenty of Playoff games between the teams and that should mean the home team are focused and looking for a big win that could serve as an important tie-breaker when the Wild Card positions are confirmed later this season.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: The Arizona Cardinals (6-4) may have enjoyed their Bye Week as they return in Week 12 with their lead in the NFC West still in place. They can thank rivals Seattle Seahawks (5-5) for that having upset the San Francisco 49ers to drop the three teams behind the Cardinals to the same record.
Where the Arizona Cardinals have a real edge over their rivals within the NFC West is that they are 2-0 in Divisional games, while both Seattle and San Francisco have losing records in those games. The Los Angeles Rams are 2-1, but a win here for the Arizona Cardinals could be a huge step towards the post-season in what has been a surprising year for the team.
Four straight wins have given the team the lead in the NFC West, but also bolstered confidence and there is a lot to like about this Arizona team.
Patience with Head Coach Jonathan Gannon has been key after the 4-13 record last season, but even more important has been the return to full health of Quarter Back Kyler Murray. He is on course for his most starts in a single season since 2021 and Murray would have been under some pressure at the start of the 2024 season having compiled a 6-13 record in his previous nineteen starts.
Kyler Murray has matched those wins over the previous two seasons through just ten games in 2024 and the Offensive unit are rolling.
Running the ball with someone like Murray at Quarter Back will always be an important part of the game plan and James Connor deserves a lot of respect for the level he has been producing in Arizona. The Seahawks did play the run pretty well against San Francisco last week, but overall it has been a struggle for them and the dual-threat from Kyler Murray has been complemented by the power of Connor at Running Back.
Any time a team can play out of third and manageable situations is going to be a huge boost and the Cardinals have been doing that very often during their four game winning run. Kyler Murray has been given some serious weapons in the passing game, which he has used very effectively thanks to the play-action opening things up down the field.
Everything begins from the run for the Arizona Cardinals, but that has been an issue for the Seattle Seahawks in recent games. They are not being helped by injuries on the Offensive Line and with a sudden retirement of Connor Williams at Center, but the Seahawks are facing an Arizona Defensive Line that is not always the best at stopping the run.
Helping the Cardinals is the fact that they are playing with a scoreboard lead and so teams have to step back and throw the ball, although Geno Smith has shown he can produce under pressure when leading the Seahawks to a win last week at San Francisco. The Quarter Back is expected to have some success with the quality of Receivers that he is targeting, but Smith will just have to look out for the players stepping in front of passes.
While the Cardinals have only picked off five passes this season, it should be noted that they have only allowed eleven Touchdown passes so this is going to be a significant test for Seattle out of an upset. Being at home is certainly going to help, but the team are just 2-4 here this season and there is every chance that the Arizona Cardinals can come out of their Bye Week and secure an important victory.
Both teams will have some successes, but the balance of the Arizona Offensive unit may just help them come out on top and maintain their unbeaten record within the NFC West. With the 49ers playing a tough game on the road and the Los Angeles Rams hosting the Philadelphia Eagles, this could be a big week for the Cardinals and they may just come out on top in a back and forth game.
MY PICKS: Washington Commanders - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Minnesota Vikings - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
New England Patriots + 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Denver Broncos - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Arizona Cardinals - 1 Point @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)
Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)
Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)
Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)
Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)
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