It was the week that I had been fearing for a while, but in each of the last few weeks I have mentioned that continuing to produce winning efforts week after week in the NFL was simply not going to be a run that could be sustained.
Through the first nine weeks of the NFL season, eight had ended with a positive number behind the selections, but Week 10 was a huge blow.
Despite that, the season totals are still very much in a strong position, and that is what has to be remembered as we reset and try and go again.
Some of the selections were poor, which can happen- the Giants proved to be a team chasing the top Draft Pick when losing in Munich and they never looked like covering as a big favourite, that was simply a poor Pick. Matthew Stafford must have missed a number of wide open Touchdowns on Monday Night Football, but again, it felt like a poor Pick pretty early as the Los Angeles Rams kept getting bogged down.
However, it still amazes me to think that Minnesota, San Francisco and Atlanta all failed to cover last week.
The former two both ended up winning, but the Falcons were beaten outright, although all three made so many mistakes that prevented them getting over the numbers set.
Sam Darnold didn't throw one, or two Interceptions inside the Red Zone, but three of those in what ended up being a five point win to miss the cover by just three points.
And the less said about the San Francisco and Atlanta kickers the better with both combining to miss multiple efforts from reasonable distance to the point that even Deebo Samuel decided to let Jake Moody know what he thought of his efforts. These are kicks that really won't be missed too often and on another day all three teams would have returned winners, so it is best not to move too far away from what has been successful so far this season.
Kickers proved to be the difference makers for Kansas City too as the last unbeaten team of the season moved through another week after the Special Teams blocked Denver's chip shot Field Goal to win the game in Week 10.
Maintaining that unbeaten run through Week 11 looks to be a huge test for Kansas City when they visit the Buffalo Bills in what many feel could be a game that ends up being replayed to decide the Super Bowl participant from the AFC.
This is the standout game of Week 11, especially on Sunday, but there are other big games beginning with a top looking NFC East battle on Thursday Night Football with the lead of the Division on the line. Moving into November means the intensity is picking up and Thanksgiving is now a couple of weeks away, which usually signals the turn into the home run for those hoping to have extended post-season runs.
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Week 11 begins with a big NFC East game featuring the top two teams in the Division on Thursday Night Football.
In reality, it would be a huge disappointment if both the Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) and Washington Commanders (7-3) were not able to secure enough wins to earn a place in the post-season, although there is also little doubt that winning the Division would be a huge boost towards having a deep Playoff run.
It is the Philadelphia Eagles who continue to produce wins, despite the noise around the team- the fans have simply been on edge far too much this season and Head Coach Nick Sirianni may feel that he has to win the Super Bowl if he is going to be retained in the job, which really does not help.
Despite that, Sirianni has led the Philadelphia Eagles to the top of the Division after a crushing win over the injury hit Dallas Cowboys in Week 10 and that makes it five wins in a row for the Eagles. In reality, we can't really know too much about Philadelphia considering who they have beaten this season, although the thumping of the Cincinnati Bengals a few weeks ago looks the most impressive.
Washington were beaten on Sunday by the Pittsburgh Steelers and like the Eagles, the schedule has not exactly been the most taxing. There is no doubting the improvement with Jayden Daniels leading the team at Quarter Back, but the Commanders's best win came early in the season at the Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals and they have struggled to beat too many good teams since then.
This is a real prove it moment for the rookie Quarter Back and the rest of the team with Washington playing on the short week and looking to reclaim top place in the NFC East.
The Commanders will be hoping Brian Robinson Jr is able to suit up having struggled to really get the ground going as it had been earlier in the season. Jayden Daniels is another threat when it comes to running the ball, but the Commanders will need all of their weapons in their bid to break down a Philadelphia Defensive Line that have really taken pride in clamping down up front.
We have seen enough from the rookie Quarter Back to expect him to make some big plays and extend drives on the ground or through the air. Jayden Daniels is facing one of the Defensive units in really good form though and he did have some issues when facing the Pittsburgh Defensive unit last week, which suggests this could be another challenging night for him.
Jayden Daniels has been well protected in the main part, especially with his capabilities of shifting the pocket, and that should help as he looks to find holes in this improving Philadelphia Secondary. It is very important for the Commanders to establish the run and see if that can open up things down the field, but overall it looks another tough match up for Washington after the tough test faced in Week 10.
At the same time, Philadelphia have to be expecting a lot more resistance from Washington than they ended up getting from Divisional rivals Dallas last Sunday. However, Nick Sirianni has to be very pleased with what he has been seeing Offensively with the team really looking a lot more confident now they have someone like Saquon Barkley running the ball as efficiently as he has been.
While there are some doubts about what Washington are going to be able to do on the ground, the same may not be true for the Eagles. The Philadelphia Offensive Line have been cracking open some big lanes for Barkley, while Jalen Hurts continues to offer a threat to tuck the ball and make plays with his legs and this is going to be a massive test for Washington's Defensive Line.
Throughout the course of the season, the Commanders have had some issues shutting down the run and recent outings have not been any different.
It should mean Philadelphia are playing in a comfortable down and distance, which will open up the playbook and the Washington Secondary may be without Marshon Lattimore again after his trade from the New Orleans Saints. The passing numbers have not looked so bad, but that may be down to the fact that teams are capable of running the ball very well against the Commanders.
They will also be dealing with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith on Thursday Night Football, as well as trying to contain Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts on the ground and that balance is going to give the Philadelphia Eagles the edge in this Divisional game.
Going against Jayden Daniels, even as a rookie, is not easy considering his ability to make big plays and the backdoor cover is open, even in a losing effort. However, Washington were beaten by a Touchdown at Baltimore and were blown out at Tampa Bay, while they were pretty much second best in the defeat to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 10.
A short week is a new test for the rookie Quarter Back and the Eagles are playing very well Defensively, which should mean there is enough room for the talented playmakers to win this game and cover the mark set.
MY PICKS: Philadelphia Eagles - 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)
Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)
Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)
Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)
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