It was the week that I had been fearing for a while, but in each of the last few weeks I have mentioned that continuing to produce winning efforts week after week in the NFL was simply not going to be a run that could be sustained.
Through the first nine weeks of the NFL season, eight had ended with a positive number behind the selections, but Week 10 was a huge blow.
Despite that, the season totals are still very much in a strong position, and that is what has to be remembered as we reset and try and go again.
Some of the selections were poor, which can happen- the Giants proved to be a team chasing the top Draft Pick when losing in Munich and they never looked like covering as a big favourite, that was simply a poor Pick. Matthew Stafford must have missed a number of wide open Touchdowns on Monday Night Football, but again, it felt like a poor Pick pretty early as the Los Angeles Rams kept getting bogged down.
However, it still amazes me to think that Minnesota, San Francisco and Atlanta all failed to cover last week.
The former two both ended up winning, but the Falcons were beaten outright, although all three made so many mistakes that prevented them getting over the numbers set.
Sam Darnold didn't throw one, or two Interceptions inside the Red Zone, but three of those in what ended up being a five point win to miss the cover by just three points.
And the less said about the San Francisco and Atlanta kickers the better with both combining to miss multiple efforts from reasonable distance to the point that even Deebo Samuel decided to let Jake Moody know what he thought of his efforts. These are kicks that really won't be missed too often and on another day all three teams would have returned winners, so it is best not to move too far away from what has been successful so far this season.
Kickers proved to be the difference makers for Kansas City too as the last unbeaten team of the season moved through another week after the Special Teams blocked Denver's chip shot Field Goal to win the game in Week 10.
Maintaining that unbeaten run through Week 11 looks to be a huge test for Kansas City when they visit the Buffalo Bills in what many feel could be a game that ends up being replayed to decide the Super Bowl participant from the AFC.
This is the standout game of Week 11, especially on Sunday, but there are other big games beginning with a top looking NFC East battle on Thursday Night Football with the lead of the Division on the line. Moving into November means the intensity is picking up and Thanksgiving is now a couple of weeks away, which usually signals the turn into the home run for those hoping to have extended post-season runs.
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Week 11 begins with a big NFC East game featuring the top two teams in the Division on Thursday Night Football.
In reality, it would be a huge disappointment if both the Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) and Washington Commanders (7-3) were not able to secure enough wins to earn a place in the post-season, although there is also little doubt that winning the Division would be a huge boost towards having a deep Playoff run.
It is the Philadelphia Eagles who continue to produce wins, despite the noise around the team- the fans have simply been on edge far too much this season and Head Coach Nick Sirianni may feel that he has to win the Super Bowl if he is going to be retained in the job, which really does not help.
Despite that, Sirianni has led the Philadelphia Eagles to the top of the Division after a crushing win over the injury hit Dallas Cowboys in Week 10 and that makes it five wins in a row for the Eagles. In reality, we can't really know too much about Philadelphia considering who they have beaten this season, although the thumping of the Cincinnati Bengals a few weeks ago looks the most impressive.
Washington were beaten on Sunday by the Pittsburgh Steelers and like the Eagles, the schedule has not exactly been the most taxing. There is no doubting the improvement with Jayden Daniels leading the team at Quarter Back, but the Commanders's best win came early in the season at the Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals and they have struggled to beat too many good teams since then.
This is a real prove it moment for the rookie Quarter Back and the rest of the team with Washington playing on the short week and looking to reclaim top place in the NFC East.
The Commanders will be hoping Brian Robinson Jr is able to suit up having struggled to really get the ground going as it had been earlier in the season. Jayden Daniels is another threat when it comes to running the ball, but the Commanders will need all of their weapons in their bid to break down a Philadelphia Defensive Line that have really taken pride in clamping down up front.
We have seen enough from the rookie Quarter Back to expect him to make some big plays and extend drives on the ground or through the air. Jayden Daniels is facing one of the Defensive units in really good form though and he did have some issues when facing the Pittsburgh Defensive unit last week, which suggests this could be another challenging night for him.
Jayden Daniels has been well protected in the main part, especially with his capabilities of shifting the pocket, and that should help as he looks to find holes in this improving Philadelphia Secondary. It is very important for the Commanders to establish the run and see if that can open up things down the field, but overall it looks another tough match up for Washington after the tough test faced in Week 10.
At the same time, Philadelphia have to be expecting a lot more resistance from Washington than they ended up getting from Divisional rivals Dallas last Sunday. However, Nick Sirianni has to be very pleased with what he has been seeing Offensively with the team really looking a lot more confident now they have someone like Saquon Barkley running the ball as efficiently as he has been.
While there are some doubts about what Washington are going to be able to do on the ground, the same may not be true for the Eagles. The Philadelphia Offensive Line have been cracking open some big lanes for Barkley, while Jalen Hurts continues to offer a threat to tuck the ball and make plays with his legs and this is going to be a massive test for Washington's Defensive Line.
Throughout the course of the season, the Commanders have had some issues shutting down the run and recent outings have not been any different.
It should mean Philadelphia are playing in a comfortable down and distance, which will open up the playbook and the Washington Secondary may be without Marshon Lattimore again after his trade from the New Orleans Saints. The passing numbers have not looked so bad, but that may be down to the fact that teams are capable of running the ball very well against the Commanders.
They will also be dealing with AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith on Thursday Night Football, as well as trying to contain Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts on the ground and that balance is going to give the Philadelphia Eagles the edge in this Divisional game.
Going against Jayden Daniels, even as a rookie, is not easy considering his ability to make big plays and the backdoor cover is open, even in a losing effort. However, Washington were beaten by a Touchdown at Baltimore and were blown out at Tampa Bay, while they were pretty much second best in the defeat to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 10.
A short week is a new test for the rookie Quarter Back and the Eagles are playing very well Defensively, which should mean there is enough room for the talented playmakers to win this game and cover the mark set.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: It is the quirkiness of the regular season schedule that AFC North leading Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2) have yet to play any of their six Divisional games in 2024. That does mean six of the remaining eight games will be against those opponents, but the foundation laid down by the Steelers means that they could kick on and win the Division.
Head Coach Mike Tomlin gave a reporter short shrift when questioned about the schedule and made it clear his Pittsburgh team are always ready to face those within the Division no matter where the NFL places them during the eighteen week regular season.
Four wins in a row have really pushed the momentum behind the Steelers, although the teams beaten are perhaps not amongst those that will be hoping to reach the Super Bowl.
In Week 11, that changes significantly when the Baltimore Ravens (7-3) come to town having swept the Cincinnati Bengals in 2024 thanks to a narrow win on Thursday Night Football. It means the Ravens have had something of a mini-Bye, which is important for a team that doesn't have the official Bye Week until early December.
The extra preparation time is going to be important with Baltimore hoping to turn things around in this series with their big rivals in Pittsburgh. Despite the recent seasons seeing Baltimore more likely to push towards a Super Bowl, it is the Pittsburgh Steelers who have won seven of eight games against this Divisional rival, including sweeping them in 2023.
However, the one exception in that run was a Baltimore win here in Pittsburgh two seasons ago and the road team do look the superior of the two.
It hasn't counted for much in the recent head to head, but this time the Ravens will be bringing Derrick Henry to town and that could be important in just shifting things around. The Ravens have been able to run very well under John Harbaugh, but the Offensive Line this season is boosted by the power of Henry in the backfield behind Lamar Jackson and that is going to be really important as they look for the road win to move ahead of the Steelers in the Division race.
As is the case with a lot of Divisional rivals, teams are built to stop the others doing what they want to do the most and the Steelers have long prided themselves on being a team that can stop the run. For much of the season they have been strong up front, but during this four game winning run, there have been one or two missed assignments and that would be a massive mistake against this Baltimore Offensive Line.
Lamar Jackson's dual-threat has always been something for the Steelers to focus on, but it is much more difficult knowing a power Back like Derrick Henry could be given the ball. Some may have thought his race had been run in Tennessee, but Henry has shown there is plenty left in the tank and the late Bye Week for the Baltimore Ravens could be crucial for how effective the Running Back remains to be in January and beyond.
We should see Baltimore have success on the ground and that should mean Lamar Jackson has a more comfortable day finding his Wide Receiver options. Diontae Johnson will certainy want to remind Pittsburgh of what was let go having arrived in Baltimore in a trade from the Carolina Panthers, but there are plenty of other weapons around him which will give Jackson an opportunity to have a decent passing day.
Being ahead of the chains should mean Lamar Jackson has time to move the pocket and then attack this Pittsburgh Secondary, which has allowed some solid passing numbers in recent outings.
Games between the Ravens and Steelers have tended to be very low-scoring and there has been fewer than 31 points combined in each of the last five games played.
However, there is a feeling that this one will be quite different with Baltimore likely going to be moving the ball with some consistency, but Pittsburgh also looking a lot more effective since Russell Wilson took over from Justin Fields at Quarter Back.
The difference between the two teams might be at the Line of Scrimmage with the Ravens Defensive Line continuing to clamp down on the run very effectively. This may make things very tough for Najee Harris, especially as Pittsburgh have not really been a team that has ripped off big runs consistently this season, and it may mean Russell Wilson is having to make more plays with his arm.
The Quarter Back is likely going to be faced with some pass rush pressure, but Wilson should also have some success against a Baltimore Secondary that continues to struggle against the pass. There is little doubt that this could be the weakness that eventually costs them a chance to win a Super Bowl, and even as Baltimore get healthier, it is an issue that will need to be addressed when the Bye Week comes around.
Russell Wilson has Receivers who can get open and make plays for him down the field, but being a little more unbalanced Offensively compared with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens could prove to be the difference between the teams on the day.
These are always going to be tough, grind it out games, but the feeling is that we could see more successful passes than usual and both Quarter Backs may have decent stat lines. However, the edge has to be with Baltimore to snap the three game losing run in the Series with the Offensive Line likely to offer out more solid runs compared with the Pittsburgh O-Line and the Ravens can do enough to win this one by around a Touchdown.
It will need the Defensive unit to make a late stand to do that, but they have been able to find those plays at significant times through the course of the season and another on Sunday may lead to a big road win for Baltimore.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions Pick: The Interceptions piled up for Jared Goff last week in a primetime spot, but the Detroit Lions (8-1) rallied for their Quarter Back and made some big Defensive plays to turn things around at the Houston Texans. They continue their path through the AFC South with another non-Conference game in Week 11, and it feels like a big chance for Goff to bounce back.
Instead of a match up against Trevor Lawrence, the Detroit Lions will be facing a Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) team led by Mac Jones at Quarter Back. He was behind Center for the narrow loss to the Minnesota Vikings last week, but Jones will have to be a lot better in this game unless he wants to lean on the Defensive unit to make massive plays to keep the Jaguars competitive.
The Offensive stats made for poor reading, but the Jaguars Defensive unit stepped up and picked up a couple of key Interceptions in the End Zone against the Minnesota Vikings. They were able to keep that NFC North Offensive unit from scoring a Touchdown, but the game was in Jacksonville and it is going to be much tougher indoors against this Detroit team looking to make amends for what was an underwhelming performance in Houston.
Winning might be what matters most, but Head Coach Dan Campbell and Quarter Back Jared Goff have set certain levels of standard here.
In reality, it may not be a game in which the Lions need their Quarter Back to dominate with the Offensive Line paving the way for the two quality Running Backs to pick up big yardage on the ground. This is going to be an area where the Lions should be able to hand off the ball for some big gains and that should ensure the team is playing out of third and manageable for much of the game.
Of course Jared Goff will want to erase the memories of the performance on Sunday Night Football in Week 10, but having the team run the ball will open things up in the passing lane for the Quarter Back to have the successes he wants. He will be without Sam LaPorta for this game, but Detroit have other weapons and they should be capable of moving the ball up and down the field.
Covering the spread will come down to how well the Lions do Defensively and they will certainly believe they can feast on Mac Jones, who barely helped the Jaguars move the ball last week.
The Lions might not be as dominant as the Minnesota Vikings have been at times, but this is a team that is very good at slowing down the run and allowing a ball-hawking Secondary to take over and create turnovers. Tank Bigsby will be missing for the Jaguars, who have a struggling Offensive Line, and it might mean the road team have to really focus on trying to get Mac Jones going.
He can have some success throwing against a Secondary that has a bend, don't break kind of approach, but Mac Jones could have a banged up Receiving corps travelling to Detroit with him. It will make it that much tougher for the Quarter Back and the Lions might just be ready to make the plays that help them pull away for a big win at home.
The last time Detroit played at home, they crushed Tennessee from the AFC South and the feeling is that this big line will still not be enough to prevent the Lions produce a dominant win both outright and at the window.
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears Pick: At one stage people were wondering whether the NFC North could potentially be the first Division to provide four Playoff teams, but those thoughts have disappeared over the last month. The top three are all looking like they are moving in the right direction, but the Chicago Bears (4-6) have lost three in a row and simply not recovered from the Hail Mary throw converted by the Washington Commanders, which will be replayed for years to come.
Like the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Chicago Bears have yet to play a Divisional rival and you can understand why the team have decided that some changes need to be made.
The first NFC North team that the Bears will face on their schedule is the Green Bay Packers (6-3), who are coming into this one out of a Bye Week which should have given key players a chance to rest. The most notable to earn that rest should be Jordan Love with the Quarter Back looking a little limited in his movement and the Packers feel Love is going to be close to full health for the big run coming up.
Two weeks ago, Green Bay saw their four game winning run ended by the Detroit Lions, but they remain in contention in the NFC North and in the Wild Card Race too.
Josh Jacobs has come into the Packers lineup in place of Aaron Jones and he has looked like he has been a part of the Green Bay teams for several years. The Offensive Line continue to bully teams up front and Jacobs should be able to pick up right where he left off before the Bye Week when facing a Chicago Defensive Line struggling to stop the run.
This should be music to the ears of Jordan Love who can work his way into the game and try and hurt a Bears Secondary that has been having health issues. With the Receivers available to Jordan Love, playing from third and manageable could set Chicago up for some big plays down the field, which is something the Packers love to bring onto the field.
Green Bay have dominated this Divisional series and have won ten in a row against the Bears and it is hard to imagine that streak is broken at Soldier Field.
After losing last week and scoring just three points, Chicago have changed Offensive Co-Ordinator in a hope of sparking things for Caleb Williams. The Head Coach, Matt Eberflus has to be on the very hot seat at this point with the fans turning on him again, and it is going to be difficult for the Bears to find consistency on this side of the ball.
Caleb Williams has hit a rookie wall, but he is getting very little time in the pocket with the Offensive Line looking more like a turnstile, and it is going to be very difficult to play from behind. The Bears might have hoped they can at least run the ball to give the Packers something to think about, but Green Bay's Defensive Line have played pretty well going into the Bye Week and they will certainly want to dare Williams to beat them.
Throwing against this Green Bay Secondary is fraught with danger anyway, never mind when a Quarter Back is under immense heat from the pass rush every time he steps back to throw the ball. That is the situation for Caleb Williams, who looked lost in the defeat to New England in Week 10 and it is very difficult to imagine this changing too much.
In recent years the Packers have not only beaten the Chicago Bears, but dominated within games and this team coming in off a Bye Week have to believe they can do the same. Jordan Love will want to show he is healthy and ready to take the Green Bay Packers forward after the successful end to 2023, and the road team can win and cover here.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: It has been an inconsistent first half of the season for many in the NFC West, but the important note is that all four teams are within touching distance of one another in a Divisional race that should go right down to the final week. Divisional games become that much more important with that in mind and the San Francisco 49ers (5-4) have dominated this series as they look to complete a sweep.
It has been a little over a month since the Seattle Seahawks (4-5) were beaten at home by the San Francisco 49ers, but they are facing them out of a Bye Week. Five losses in six games has seen the Seahawks slump below 0.500 and it is very important to turn things around considering Seattle are already 0-2 within the Division.
Having the Bye Week will have allowed Seattle to get some bodies back, but they have lost Connor Williams on the Offensive Line after he decided to retire unexpectedly. This is going to make things a bit more challenging considering the issues Seattle were having when trying to establish the run going into the Bye, while Williams being the Center will be a big loss for the passing game too.
Running the ball has been a problem for the Seahawks in recent games and they cannot expect to have a lot of success in this one against a tough San Francisco Defensive Line. That only places more pressure on the shoulders of Geno Smith at Quarter Back, who has not really had many clean pockets to operate from of late and now is going to have perhaps a couple of inexperienced players on the Line.
His numbers are still decent enough and DK Metcalf is a big threat, but Smith is going to have some challenges throwing against the 49ers Secondary if the pass rush is getting close to him. Add in the fact that the 49ers have picked up their level defending the pass and have players willing to take the risks to step in front of passes, and it could be a tough day for Geno Smith against a team that has beaten Seattle in six straight NFC West games.
The 49ers returned from their own Bye Week to beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 10, but it was important to also have Christian McCaffrey back from an injury that has kept him out all season. It gives San Francisco another crease to their Offensive play-calling, and only poor kicking made that win over the Buccaneers much closer on the scoreboard than it actually should have been.
No one is expecting Christian McCaffrey to dominate from the off, but he is a threat as a catcher as much as a runner and that gives opponents pause for thought. There is every chance he can have a big impact on the ground against this Seattle Defensive Line, which will just open things up for Brock Purdy at Quarter Back.
Tyrel Dodson was the Seattle leading tackler before surprisingly being let go and that is not going to help the Seahawks either against the run or the pass.
Brock Purdy should have enough Receiving weapons to spread the ball around and dissect the Seattle Secondary, especially with the Offense likely to be in third and manageable spots. He should have time when he does step back to throw the ball, although Brock Purdy will just want to clean up some of the mistakes to make sure his team are in control of this game.
In the six game winning run, Seattle have not been able to get closer than 8 points to the San Francisco and it might be tougher to do a lot better than that. The 49ers have the balance Offensively that may just see them have too much for a Divisional rival that may struggle to run the ball and it could end up seeing San Francisco come through with a solid win and a cover of this mark.
MY PICKS: Philadelphia Eagles - 3.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Baltimore Ravens - 3 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
San Francisco 49ers - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)
Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)
Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)
Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)
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