Looking back at the 2024 season, the stand out moment came very early on after an incredibly poor showing at the Australian Open as far as the Tennis Picks were concerned.
It meant playing catch up right from the off and ultimately proved too much to be overcome, which was the feeling back then and something that was written on these pages.
With one more big Singles tournament to be played to conclude the 2024 season, the thoughts begin to turn to a return to the 'scene of the crime' with the Australian Open now fast approaching and improvements at that event will be keen to set a much better foundation. A few changes with the selection process will have to be made to find better angles to attack that tournament and the rest of the year, although the signs from the other three Grand Slams were more positive.
The ATP World Tour Finals continues to be a solid way to end the year and the majority of the top eight will be playing in Turin, although looking past Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz has a potential Champion is difficult after the two players dominated the Grand Slams in 2024.
Novak Djokovic's absence is a blow for the tournament, but there should be plenty of quality tennis for the fans to enjoy before the short off-season gives a chance for players to just reset.
It is an unfamiliar format where a defeat may not mean elimination, but the majority of those playing this week have been a part of the end of season tournament and so will know more about the permutations than most.
Daniil Medvedev-Taylor Fritz over 23.5 games: The ATP World Tour Finals set the top eight players in the world for one more big effort to end the season, but it has been a long time since the Finals were played without Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.
Only the Serb is the 'last man standing' from the Big Three era, but Novak Djokovic has decided to end his 2024 season having achieved what he wanted when winning the Gold Medal at the Paris Olympics. Failing to win a Grand Slam will always disappoint Djokovic, but he is going to be refreshed when the Australian Open is played in January, a tournament he has dominated through large parts of his career.
He isn't here in Turin this week and that opens the door for others to step up.
A couple of years ago, it could have been argued that Daniil Medvedev was in the top two when it came to hard court players on the Tour, but he has not enjoyed the best of seasons on the surface. The World Number 4 reached the Quarter Final at the US Open and has matched that run in Beijing and then reached the Semi Final in Shanghai, but the overall numbers have not really been up to the previous standards set by Daniil Medvedev on the surface.
The key area that will need to be improved in 2025 if Medvedev wants to add another Grand Slam title to his collection is the serve- this season the World Number 4 has 'only' held 79% of his service games played on the hard courts, which is considerably below the consistent mid-80 mark set in each of the last several years. In a sport where the margins are as thin as they are, that drop off has just made things more difficult for Daniil Medvedev.
First up in Turin in this Group Stage is a match with Taylor Fritz, the World Number 6 who has had a solid year on the Tour.
He might have been well beaten when all was said and done in the US Open Final, but that is the biggest impact Taylor Fritz has had in a Grand Slam and he has since produced a Semi Final run in Shanghai.
Taylor Fritz has not really reached the highs that Daniil Medvedev has on a hard court, but he has a serve that makes him dangerous and he has held 87% of service games played on the hard courts. Ultimately he has not been as productive on the return, which is still an area that needs to be improved, and Fritz will have to make sure he serves well in this one.
The indoor hard court used in Turin has regularly seen long matches develop in the ATP World Tour Finals and the feeling is that this opening 2024 Group Stage match could end up being another one of those. Daniil Medvedev might not have served as well as he would have hoped in 2024, but he is facing an opponent that is not always at his most comfortable working on his return game.
However, the American serves well enough to remain competitive and he could force a tie-breaker or two with the likelihood that the match needs a decider. In a Group that contains Jannik Sinner, this match could be the one that decides who follows the World Number 1 into the Semi Final and there is every chance it will be one that goes long before a winner is determined.
Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Alex De Minaur: If Novak Djokovic had been able to take part in the ATP World Tour Finals, Alex De Minuar would have been travelling to Turin as an alternative. Instead he will be playing in the Group Stage immediately, although the Australian is still looking to get back into a position to surpass his career best World Ranking mark.
He will be ending the year at a higher Ranking than where he began and that will mean Alex De Minaur is pretty satisfied with the work put in over the calendar year. A short break will be well earned and then the focus will quickly turn to the Australian Open and peaking for the first Grand Slam of the season, which comes with the bonus of being in De Minaur's home country.
An injury in the middle of the season has prevented Alex De Minaur from earning a place in the ATP World Tour Finals directly, while he has remained more than a steady and confident player when operating on the hard courts.
The lack of matches against top 10 rivals since the first quarter of the season perhaps works against Alex De Minaur, especially as he gets the toughest match in the Group first up.
Jannik Sinner broke through and won a maiden Grand Slam title back in January in Melbourne and backed that up by winning the US Open in September. The most recent win in New York City has highlighted the controversy around the World Number 1 who failed a doping test in March, something that only came to light a couple of weeks before the US Open was beginning.
So many have had their say about the situation and an appeal has been placed after Sinner avoided a suspension, but he will be playing in a very comfortable environment at this tournament. There were some negative opinions voiced about Jannik Sinner from the stands at the US Open, but he has not allowed that to affect his tennis and Sinner has followed up by reaching the Beijing Final and then winning the Shanghai Masters.
Twelve months ago Jannik Sinner showed what he is capable of by beating Novak Djokovic in the ATP World Tour Finals Group Stage before losing to the same opponent in the Final. However, that sparked his successes in 2024 and the Italian holds a 45-3 record in hard court matches, which makes him a big favourite to at least win this Group.
We know how well Jannik Sinner protects the serve, but an aggressive returning style has really pushed him forward and he should be comfortable in this match up.
In seven previous matches against Alex De Minaur, Jannik Sinner has won each time and the numbers have been heavily skewed in his favour. The Australian is going to have to serve really well if he wants to remain competitive, never mind winning the match, and you just have to feel that Jannik Sinner can be inspired by the home fans to just pull through for a comfortable enough win.
MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev-Taylor Fritz Over 23.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 1.70 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
No comments:
Post a Comment