Half of the Group Stage is already in the books in Turin at the World Tour Finals and we have yet to have a player who has officially been eliminated and one that has progressed through to the Semi Final.
It has been a strange end of year tournament so far with very little drama attached as every match has been completed in straight sets.
My hope is that we will see that change with the second of my two Picks from Day 4 at the tournament, while there is still a hope for fans that the 'dream Final' could take place in the Knock Out Rounds, albeit perhaps in the Semi Final instead.
Carlos Alcaraz - 2.5 games v Andrey Rublev: An upset in his first match at the World Tour Finals was partially attributed to a cold, but Carlos Alcaraz will not be making too many excuses for the performance against Casper Ruud. The World Number 2 admitted he had not been feeling his best on Monday morning having been suffering with an illness in the days leading up to the event, but another couple of days should have helped.
He cannot afford to be begin this match slowly with the place in the Semi Final looking a little shaky, but Carlos Alcaraz does still have time to turn things around.
First up is this important match against Andrey Rublev, who was also beaten in straight sets in the first match at the World Tour Finals. There have been some positive moments in 2024 for the very consistent Rublev, but too many letdowns and that has contributed to a slight dip in the World Ranking.
Serving was not a problem in the defeat to Alexander Zverev, but Andrey Rublev was not good enough on the returning side of his tennis and it ultimately led to a pretty routine defeat. He does hold a win over Carlos Alcaraz on the clay courts of Madrid in the lead up to the French Open, but Rublev will also remember being pretty well beaten by the Spaniard when they met in Turin at this event twelve months ago.
There is most definitely room for improvement as far as the Carlos Alcaraz serve goes on the hard courts, but the feeling is that someone like Andrey Rublev may not be able to take full advantage of that. We know how well the Russian can serve when feeling at his best, but the scoreboard pressure has been telling when he has not been able to get into return games and that may be the problem for the lower Ranked player in this Group match.
You have to be a little concerned about the illness that Carlos Alcaraz has been dealing with and whether he has had enough time to get a little better. He looked stronger in the second set of his defeat to Casper Ruud and the day of rest between matches should do Carlos Alcaraz the world of good and help him get back into a position to Qualify for the Semi Final.
Andrey Rublev is not someone who will give up, and the win over Alcaraz earlier this year will give him confidence. However, the higher Ranked player has been stronger on the hard courts and that should see him win this match and cover the handicap mark set.
Alexander Zverev-Casper Ruud over 21.5 games: The winner of this match will have one foot in the Semi Final and so there is plenty of motivation for Alexander Zverev and Casper Ruud when they head out on Wednesday to back up strong opening performances.
Out of the two players, the numbers produced by Alexander Zverev in his win over Andrey Rublev were the more impressive of the two players set to meet in this second Group match.
However, Casper Ruud will have taken a lot of confidence out of his upset of Carlos Alcaraz, even if the latter was perhaps not at 100% as he battled an illness as well as the Norwegian. It is a victory that gives Ruud a really good chance of getting out of this Group, but you cannot ignore the performances heading into the World Tour Finals.
Beating Carlos Alcaraz will create headlines, but Casper Ruud will know that this is a significant test against an opponent who is unlikely to be weakened by an illness. It also should be noted that Alexander Zverev won the Paris Masters ahead of this tournament so will not be lacking for confidence as he looks for a big victory that could make the last match with Carlos Alcaraz an effective 'dead rubber'.
There is work for both players to do and the target has to be any sort of victory in this match- a victory in straight sets would make it very difficult for the winner to be eliminated in the Group Stage and that would be the ultimate goal for both players.
Alexander Zverev deserves an edge considering the much stronger form in the run up to the last Singles event of the 2024 season, especially as it felt like Casper Ruud was just going to be making up the numbers. The latter will have to serve well to keep up with Alexander Zverev, but Casper Ruud is capable and he did reach the Final of this event a couple of years ago, which suggests some enjoyment playing on these indoor hard courts.
The sole meeting between the players ended in a four set win for Alexander Zverev at the French Open where he eventually was beaten by Carlos Alcaraz in a five set battle in the Final of that Grand Slam event.
The expectation has to be that Alexander Zverev will get the better of this match too, but Casper Ruud might be able to serve well enough to keep this competitive on the scoreboard at least. He has lost a lot of matches since the end of the US Open, but Ruud has kept the majority of those very competitive and doing that on these courts could see the total game line surpassed.
MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Alexander Zverev-Casper Ruud Over 21.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
World Tour Finals Update: 3-3, - 0.84 Units (6 Units Staked, - 14% Yield)
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