There may be an expanded College Football Playoff format in place at the end of this season, but the tougher schedules that teams have chosen to face has really kept the end of the regular season hugely exciting for fans of the sport.
The SEC are expected to have as many as five teams taking part in the twelve team Playoff, but a number of those leading the way have already been beaten twice.
What does that mean? Well, some Head Coaches have made it clear that any SEC team that has two losses on the schedule may actually be better off if they miss the Championship Game.
Winning that would mean a top four Seed and a Bye through the First Round, but a third defeat would likely mean elimination, even if that is in the Championship Game, and so there is a real belief that the better option would be to win out in the regular season and hope to miss out. Until the change is made to perhaps give the two teams in any Championship Game an edge over those that miss out, you can imagine this is a situation that will come up again and so the first change to be made is to reorganise Conferences into Divisions.
That is for another season and for now teams are going into the final two weeks of the regular season hoping to do enough to be invited into the new College Football Playoff bracket. There are some big games for the likes of the Indiana Hoosiers, who visit the Ohio State Buckeyes, while the top of the Big 12 Conference could have the Championship Game set this weekend.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Army Black Knights Pick: The expanded College Football Playoff was always going to offer a bit more room for a team like the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-1) to join eleven other teams chasing the National Championship. Despite an upset earlier this season, the Fighting Irish are 6th in the latest Playoff Rankings that have been released and Notre Dame are likely to be one of the teams selected, albeit without a Bye Week, as long as they win out in the regular season.
There is no Championship Game that could bolster the resume for Notre Dame and there is little doubt that they have not exactly faced the top teams in College Football. Even some of the better looking wins have been weakened by other upsets, but the Fighting Irish are doing what they need to.
In Week 13 they are hosting an unbeaten Army Black Knights (9-0) team that will put an unbeaten record on the line having secured a spot in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game against Tulane. They moved up into 19th place in the College Football Rankings, but Army would make a considerable move and likely into the top twelve places if they find a way to upset Notre Dame at Yankees Stadium.
This feels like a 'prove it' moment for the Black Knights who have not exactly had a lot of top wins through their unbeaten run, which has contributed to a relatively low Ranking considering they have yet to lose.
The game plan won't take much to work out with the Black Knights looking to run, run and run some more when they have the ball in their hand. This is going to be the toughest Defensive Line that Army would have faced all season and you have to believe that the Bye Week to prepare for this game can only aid the Black Knights further as they look to not only establish the run, but to make sure this is a huge part of their day in New York.
Bryson Daily has had almost double the amount of yardage on the ground as he has throwing the ball from Quarter Back, but everything depends on the Line of Scrimmage and whether the Black Knights can push the Notre Dame Defensive Line out of position or give them a scheme that they do not recognise.
It is going to be a tough ask for Army all the same and containing this Notre Dame Offensive unit will be plenty challenging too.
Eight wins in a row have almost erased that painful loss to the Northern Illinois Huskies, but the Fighting Irish cannot afford another slip. They have scored at least 28 points in each win since scoring just 14 against the Huskies, and there is a fine balance to the play-calling on the Offensive side of the ball.
Much like when Army have the ball, the Line of Scrimmage is going to be all-important when Notre Dame are in position and the test for the Black Knights Defensive Line in stopping the run will surpass any they have faced this season. The Fighting Irish have ripped open some big gains on the ground and the talent edge is with Notre Dame, which should show up here.
Riley Leonard has offered some dual-threat out of the Quarter Back position, although he is much more likely to build up the yardage behind his arm rather than his legs.
What has to be expected from this game is that Leonard and the Notre Dame passing game should be able to exploit some of the holes in the Army Secondary. That will be much more difficult for Bryson Daily at Quarter Back for Army, and that balance should allow Notre Dame to push past this unbeaten opponent in the grand setting of Yankees Stadium.
Notre Dame have been impressing the Playoff Committee by now only winning games, but by doing so by wide margins. That has also made them a very productive favourite to back when it comes to the spread since that upset loss to the Huskies and the Fighting Irish should put up another impressive victory to maintain their push towards the twelve team Playoff coming up next month.
SMU Mustangs @ Virginia Cavaliers Pick: Seven wins in a row have kept the SMU Mustangs (9-1) on track for a place in the ACC Championship Game in their first season in this Conference.
Head Coach Rhett Lashlee will not be concerning himself with the Number 13 placing given to the SMU Mustangs in the latest Playoff Rankings. Instead he will be reminding his team that winning out and becoming ACC Champion would likely end with a Bye through the First Round of the post-season and especially as the Championship Game is likely going to be against the Miami Hurricanes, who are still at Number 8.
The Mustangs have shown character when needed during their seven game winning run and that is highlighted by some close wins. However, twice in this run the Mustangs have won as the outright underdog and those are the kinds of wins that build confidence and will have players believing in everything the Coaching staff as asking them to do.
Next up is the last road game in the regular season when SMU travel to face the Virginia Cavaliers (5-5) who are still in need of one more win to become Bowl eligible. Last week, the Cavaliers were blown out by the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in a game that looked much closer on the scoreboard than it actually was and that means Virginia have lost four of their last five games.
One of those was against the Clemson Tigers and the Cavaliers have also gone down to Louisville and North Carolina.
Turnovers have been an issue and five in the first half against the Fighting Irish meant it was never going to be a competitive outing for Virginia. Head Coach Tony Elliot is hoping his team can be much more careful with the ball as they look to upset the SMU Mustangs hopes for the season, while there is also some real uncertainty about the Quarter Back position.
Whoever lines up at the position will have a good match up against a SMU Secondary that has given up plenty of yards of late. Of course teams have been chasing the Mustangs and have been forced to take to the air, but there is a chance to impress for the Virginia Quarter Back.
However, the problem for the Cavaliers is that they have been one-dimensional Offensively with the team struggling to establish the run. This has really exposed the failings of the Offensive Line when it comes to pass protection, which in turn meant a Quarter Back under pressure has made mistakes when trying to throw down the field.
The Mustangs Defensive Line have played well in recent games and they have been able to put up plenty of hits on the opposition Quarter Back so the match up will feel a decent one for them on this side of the ball.
Of course it is the SMU Offensive unit that has really pushed the momentum behind the team and they will be relying on Kevin Jennings and his playmakers to keep the team on track to reach the ACC Championship Game.
Like so many of the top teams in College Football who are chasing berths in the Playoff, the Mustangs have been pretty well balanced Offensively. This Offensive Line will be able to establish the run against this Cavaliers team that has been struggling of late and that is only going to open things up for Jennings and the passing game to have plenty of success.
The Quarter Back has been well protected, while Virginia have struggled to really make an impact in the backfield having had issues stopping the run. This should allow Kevin Jennings to have another strong game, although he will have to be aware of the Virginia Secondary and their ability to turn the ball over.
Extra possessions can be so important in these games, but the Mustangs are more likely to take advantage of those and the road team may just be able to produce another quality win on the road. In reality, we are down to that point of the season where merely winning is the most important goal for any team to achieve, but the Mustangs will want to remind the Playoff Committee of their abilities.
In Week 12, Notre Dame crushed Virginia at home, but SMU can do enough on the road to perhaps not reach the same margin of victory, but to win by double digits and ensure they cover and maintain their place in line for a spot in the ACC Championship Game.
Mississippi Rebels @ Florida Gators Pick: There are six SEC teams that are still in contention to reach the Championship Game in the Conference and a number of them have two losses on the board already. In previous years the ambition would still have been to reach the Conference Championship Game regardless, but there has been open talk in and around the SEC that it would be better for a two loss team to win out and hope to miss out on playing that Championship Game knowing a loss would almost certainly mean they miss out on the College Football Playoff.
Right now the two loss teams in the SEC have been given plenty of respect with those four being placed between Number 7 and 11 in the latest College Football Rankings. While other Conferences are likely going to be punished for multiple defeats, the SEC are going to be given plenty of respect for the level of competition that their top teams have taken on in the regular season.
The Mississippi Rebels (8-2) are currently the Number 9 team in the College Football Playoff Rankings and Head Coach Lane Kiffin has been speaking about the predicament that a two loss team reaching the SEC Championship Game brings. Instead of being respected for making it that far, losing would likely mean elimination from the Playoff and Kiffin and the Rebels want to be involved.
Of course they cannot let the focus slip knowing a loss in either of their remaining two Conference games would likely mean elimination too.
First up is the Florida Gators (5-5) who have a 3-4 record when playing within the SEC, but who are playing behind an upset of the LSU Tigers.
Motivation for the Gators begins with trying to earn Bowl eligibility first and foremost and this is the final home game of the season, which is going to be a big day for some of the seniors. DJ Lagway being back at Quarter Back was a huge boost for Florida who had been blown out by the Texas Longhorns without him, and there is a confidence about Lagway that has to be respected.
Much of the pressure is going to be on the shoulders of DJ Lagway because it has been very tough to run against the Rebels Defensive Line all season. That does not mean Lagway cannot have success considering the inconsistent play of the Mississippi Secondary, but will also mean that the Quarter Back will need to be well aware of the pass rush pressure that the road team have put together in recent outings.
Sacks have been produced at a high rate and it could lead to a mistake or two from the Florida Quarter Back, which could be key in determining the direction of this game. DJ Lagway has played with a lot of belief and that can be hard to shake, but this Rebels Defensive unit will look to make Florida a little one-dimensional and then further that pressure through the strong Offensive play that Mississippi have been able to produce.
Jaxson Dart has really been playing at a high level at Quarter Back and showing off the experience he has built up in College Football and he has been a key part of the three game winning run that the Rebels are riding. His arm has been very important considering some of the inconsistent performances produced when it comes to running the ball, although the Rebels may have a bit more success against this Florida Defensive Line.
More exciting for the fans of the Quarter Back is seeing some of the big yards that the Gators have allowed through the air in recent games and Jaxson Dart is playing well enough to capitalise. There is every chance that Tre Harris is also going to be back on the field after missing the three game winning run through injury and the Wide Receiver is close to cracking the 1000 Receiving mark despite the run of absences.
The Rebels Offensive Line have been stronger in pass protection than run blocking in recent outings and Jaxson Dart can just remind the Playoff Committee of the talent that this Mississippi team possess.
These two SEC teams have not met since 2020 when the Gators blew out the Mississippi Rebels on the road, which will still give the road favourites motivation here.
Florida have to be credited for showing plenty of competitiveness, even in defeats, before the blow out to the Texas Longhorns. However, they were beaten by 13 points by Texas A&M and 14 points by Georgia Bulldogs and the feeling is that the Rebels can match those margins in this big Week 13 game.
Vanderbilt Commodores @ LSU Tigers Pick: He came in with a big contract signed, but Head Coach Brian Kelly is under immense pressure at the LSU Tigers (6-4). Six teams are still firmly involved in the race to reach the College Football Playoff from within the SEC, but it is a real disappointment for all associated with LSU that they are not one of them with a 3-3 record within the Conference.
They had begun with three SEC wins, but the Tigers have now lost three in a row to the Texas A&M Aggies, Alabama Crimson Tide and Florida Gators. All of those defeats have been by double digits to end LSU's hopes of making the Playoff, while some of the sideline issues involving Brian Kelly and a couple of the players have gone viral.
The Tigers host the Vanderbilt Commodores (6-4) who hold the same record as LSU, but who will be feeling much more positive about their record compared with the home team. The Commodores have lost two of their last three SEC games, but they still have a 3-3 record within the Conference, while the upset over Alabama will live long in the memory for all of the fans who attended.
Diego Pavia has played well at Quarter Back for Vanderbilt and the team are coming out of a Bye Week, which has given Pavia the time that should see him overcome his issue and start in Week 13. Others have also used the time to make sure they are ready to play in this big road game as Vanderbilt look for another upset and having key players available is a big boost.
The key on this side of the ball for the Commodores is going to be finding a way to exploit the big problems that the Tigers Defensive Line have had in stopping the run. In recent games, Vanderbilt have not exactly been very consistent when it comes to running the ball and so the battle at the Line of Scrimmage is going to be key for both teams.
The Quarter Back has offered a dual-threat out of the position so the Commodores could look to Diego Pavia to move the ball on the ground to open up the passing lanes. He has been a pretty efficient passer for much of the season, but Pavia has just struggled in recent games with the injury potentially restricting his performance.
Throwing against this Tigers Secondary will be challenging if Pavia is being forced to make plays from behind the chains, but having the Quarter Back available will give Vanderbilt the opportunity to make some big plays on the ground.
Running the ball will be a struggle for the LSU Tigers in this game too, although they may feel the competition being faced is a step down compared with the teams beaten in the three game losing streak. Even then, the Tigers have not been able to break the big runs and this is a Vanderbilt Defensive Line that has been the strength of the team this side of the ball.
It has placed more pressure on Garrett Nussmeier at Quarter Back and he has had an inconsistent season to say the least. 22 Touchdown passes have come with 11 Interceptions and there will be further pressure on Nussmeier to show what he can do after a highly rated Quarter Back recruit changed his mind and flipped his commitment from LSU to Michigan.
Garrett Nussmeier is at least throwing against a Vanderbilt Secondary that has been struggling to deal with the pass, although the Quarter Back will not have a lot of time in the pocket if the team are not able to establish the run. This could lead to turnovers, which could spark an upset for the road team, and it looks like it could be a tough evening for LSU.
However, they are playing under the lights and this is a team with something to prove, which should at least give LSU some motivation. Brian Kelly might be under pressure, and players could easily lose focus with a season that has unravelled, but the Commodores have also been playing without the intensity of earlier this season.
Injuries are hurting the road team and that may be the key for LSU to earn a win and a rare cover against the spread.
Colorado Buffaloes @ Kansas Jayhawks Pick: With two weeks left in the regular season, the surprising 2024 Colorado Buffaloes (8-2) have been set as favourites to win the Big 12, which should also come with a Playoff spot. That will mean winning out and then winning the Big 12 Championship Game, but the momentum is with the Colorado Buffaloes, although they are facing a tough road game in Week 13.
Arrowhead, the home of the Kansas City Chiefs, will be the venue when the Buffaloes travel to face the Kansas Jayhawks (4-6). There has to be plenty of respect for a team that has won three of their last four games to just about keep their Bowl bid alive after a miserable run to open the season, while that respect deepens when noting that the Kansas Jayhawks upset the BYU Cougars last time out.
That win ended the unbeaten hopes of the Cougars, while also knocking them out of the current top twelve in the Playoff Rankings so Head Coach Deion Sanders will be reminding his players of the threat that will be offered by the home team.
A number of the big name Colorado players have to be excited about playing in a NFL Stadium with that likely to be in their future once Draft Day passes. Impressing in such a setting may just boost the Buffaloes Ranking, which is currently Number 16, and you do have to believe that Sanders and his team will feel a little disrespected in their current positioning having won four games in a row since losing narrowly to the Kansas State Wildcats.
Colorado have been heavily relying on the arm of Shedeur Sanders as they have continued to struggle to run the ball, but even knowing what to come has not made life any easier for Defensive units facing this Buffaloes team. He is not the dual-threat that some Quarter Backs are, but Sanders is likely to be the first name called out in the next NFL Draft having thrown for over 3200 passing yards with 27 Touchdowns and just 7 Interceptions.
His life would be all the easier if the Buffaloes Offensive Line could help establish the run, but that has been an issue all season and even facing this Kansas Defensive Line is not expected to change those fortunes. It is not going to really impact the play of Shedeur Sanders though, especially with the Jayhawks Secondary giving up plenty of yards through the air and the Buffaloes are expected to keep the chains moving.
Deion Sanders is demanding more from his team, despite the strong run, and he will certainly expect a challenging test from the Jayhawks.
Much like when the Buffaloes have the ball, it may be tough for Kansas to really look to the run to set up the pass, even if the Offensive Line has been playing well. The Colorado Defensive Line have played really well when it comes to the run during their winning streak and they will certainly believe they are capable of at least containing the Jayhawks on the ground with their strengths at the Line of Scrimmage.
The difference when it comes to running the ball is that the Jayhawks can call plays for Jalon Daniels at Quarter Back compared with the Buffaloes who know Shedeur Sanders is an effective passer. That is not to say that Daniels cannot have success throwing the ball, but he has yet to hit 2000 passing yards and 13 Touchdown passes with 10 Interceptions shows there is a marked difference between the Quarter Backs when it comes to throwing down the field.
Jalon Daniels can move around the pocket to give himself some time, but he will be hoping to be in third and manageable spots on the field to just ensure the Buffaloes pass rush is not able to have a big impact on the game. This ability to sense the pressure has helped with the pass protection though and Daniels will be able to exploit some holes in the Colorado Secondary, albeit with the potential danger of being turned over when he steps back to throw.
Turnovers are likely to be very important in this game, and a potentially big deciding factor considering where the line sits.
You do have a feeling that this game could come down to whichever teams possesses the ball last, but the Colorado Buffaloes have been playing with a lot of confidence right now and that may just see them edge to a success. The Kansas Jayhawks invested a lot into the upset of the BYU Cougars, but they were slightly fortunate too and will need the bounce of the ball to work in their favour to win this one.
Colorado look to have a slight talent edge and the team are playing with momentum right now, which can be hard to shake off. There is also some motivation from being placed outside the top twelve in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings and Deion Sanders can use that to inspire his team to an important road win and edge that much closer to participating in the Big 12 Championship Game.
MY PICKS: Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 14 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
SMU Mustangs - 10 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Mississippi Rebels - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Colorado Buffaloes - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Connecticut Huskies + 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
California Golden Bears - 14 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Baylor Bears - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Baylor Bears - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Week 12: 3-6, - 3.23 Units (9 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)
Week 11: 1-5, - 4.15 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.17% Yield)
Week 10: 1-6, - 4.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 57.86% Yield)
Week 9: 4-2, + 1.82 Units (6 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)
Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)
Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)
Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)
Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
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