Thanksgiving Day Weekend is here and that means the ambitions of teams will begin to clear up.
There are a host of teams that may be thinking ahead to finishing with a high NFL Draft Pick and beginning to turn around their franchises, even if Head Coaches refuse to entertain the idea of tanking. Ultimately they are being paid to win NFL games, even if those above them would prefer to finish with enough losses to secure a top Draft Pick and that kind of split is hard to balance up.
We have seen the New York Giants players unafraid of voicing their opinions having seen Daniel Jones dropped as the starting Quarter Back and later released- to then follow that up by picking the third string Quarter Back to take over as the starter has made it clear that the Giants are not serious about winning games and that is not going to go down very well with the locker room.
Some teams are looking ahead to the future and picking a player that can change their fortunes, but for many teams the focus is on trying to earn a Playoff spot and then making a real run towards the Super Bowl.
There looks to be some stand out teams, but we are only just heading into December during Week 13 and the schedules are designed in a way where the bigger games are played in the remaining weeks of the regular season. Things could quickly unravel for teams who look good, while there always seems to be one or two teams that can pick up a lot of momentum in the final month of the regular season and take that into the post-season where they can upset some of the higher Seeds.
Identifying those potential teams is not easy, but the Miami Dolphins are looking pretty good and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been a team used to making late runs that have led to the Playoffs too.
Week 13 brings a number of primetime games with three on Thanksgiving Day and then the Black Friday game before heading into the weekend.
It has been a tough three weeks for the NFL Picks, although the last two weeks have been more frustrating than anything else.
On another occasion Week 12 would have ended with a 4-2 record, but the Minnesota Vikings blew a huge lead in Chicago and the Arizona Cardinals made a couple of key mistakes in losing in Seattle when they looked to be in a position to win.
Things like this happen, but it is a bit annoying off the back of a couple of rough weeks and the hope is tha the bounce of the ball is a bit more favourable over the next few days to get things turned back around.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions Pick: Seven defeats in a row on Thanksgiving Day might be hard to swallow, especially as the Detroit Lions (10-1) host the first game of the holiday, but this current team is all about breaking new ground. Nine wins in a row have kept them in front of the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers in the loaded NFC North and many feel Detroit might be the best team in the NFL.
Next up is a Divisional showdown with the Chicago Bears (4-7) who have actually handed three of the last seven Thanksgiving Day defeats to the Detroit Lions.
However, the Bears have dropped five games in a row to fall out of contention within the Division, although they could easily have won three of those. The stunning Hail Mary loss to the Washington Commanders has sparked the losing run, but the Bears also have had a blocked Field Goal prevent them from beating the Green Bay Packers and suffered an Overtime loss in Week 12 against the Minnesota Vikings.
At 7-5, the Bears might have been arriving in Detroit filled with confidence, but losing five straight means this is very much a learning season for Caleb Williams at Quarter Back. He had been struggling, but performed well in the last two games against Divisional rivals and that may at least mean he can play with some belief when opening up Thanksgiving Day on the road.
He will have to be aware of the huge challenge in front of him against this Detroit Defensive unit which has been playing with a lot of energy and intensity for three straight weeks. They were the reason that the Lions were able to overcome the Houston Texans in Week 10 thanks to some big second half turnovers and the Lions Defense has allowed just 12 points in their last couple of wins over the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts.
Stepping up their play from the front, the Lions Defensive Line have made it very tough to run the ball against them and that is going to be problematic for Caleb Williams and the Bears. With an Offensive Line struggling in pass protection, the run has been key to pushing the Chicago Bears into third and manageable spots on the field and subsequently enabled Williams to not have to hold onto the ball for too long.
He does have some veteran Receivers to help out, but Caleb Williams will find it tough to allow routes to develop whenever the Bears are playing from behind the chains. Even without Aidan Hutchinson, the Lions can generate some pressure up front and Williams has made a couple of rookie mistakes in taking Sacks when he should be getting rid of the ball to fight in another Down.
Credit has to be given to the rookie Quarter Back for at least avoiding big mistakes in the passing game, but he will have to be aware of the danger of throwing into this Detroit Secondary when they are expecting the pass to be made. Interceptions could be key to turning this game completely in favour of the Lions, especially if the Bears Defensive unit cannot pick up their own level of play.
They have been involved in some competitive losses recently, but the Bears are giving up almost 400 yards of Offense in recent defeats and that is significantly higher than their early season performances. Now they have to face a Detroit team that has a hugely balanced Offense and that is going to make it very difficult for the Chicago Bears to make stops.
A one-two punch out of the backfield sets everything up for the Lions, although former Bears Running Back David Montgomery could potentially miss out. Even if he cannot go, Jahmyr Gibbs has shown he is more than capable of breaking out a big run or two and is also offering a real threat in the passing game.
The Chicago Secondary has just found it tough to stop teams as they have stepped up their level of competition and it is very likely that Jared Goff is able to turn the Detroit fortunes around on Thanksgiving Day. He is well protected, which means having plenty of time to let his Receivers break open, and Goff has bounced back from his horrific primetime peformance against the Houston Texans.
Playing at home has been very productive for the Quarter Back and Jared Goff has been able to produce cleaner performances here and he should be able to lead the Lions up and down the field.
With the spread where it is, the backdoor cover will certainly be open for the Chicago Bears.
However, the feeling is that the Lions will have heard plenty about their losing run on Thanksgiving Day and they will be motivated to show the nation how far they have come in the last couple of years. The Bears have a solid recent record in this Stadium on Thanksgiving Day, and they have been competitive against the other two top NFC North teams, but the Bears were blown out in their last road game against Arizona and they may find this Detroit Offensive unit too much to handle in the first of three games on Turkey Day.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: When the schedule makers set this game for Thanksgiving Day, the hope would have been that it would be one between two contenders in the NFC East. Instead, the Dallas Cowboys (4-7) and New York Giants (2-9) have vastly underachieved and the latter are perhaps looking to finish the season with the Number 1 Draft Pick.
After deciding to bench Daniel Jones at Quarter Back, who was then later released, the decision to go with the third string QB Tommy DeVito rather than Drew Lock, who has been the backup to Jones all season, has made it pretty clear what the ownership may want. Some of the Giants players have voiced their frustration about the direction being taken by the team, while Head Coach Brian Daboll will do well to retain his job going into 2025.
Six losses in a row have sunk the Giants and there will be some real questions being asked as to why they spent so much money on extending Daniel Jones' contract and allowing Saquon Barkley to leave. They were miserable in Week 12 when being blown out by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and this is a short week to get things right.
At least one positive is that New York are facing a Dallas Cowboys team that has also been in the midst of a miserable run, albeit one that was snapped with the win over the Washington Commanders last time out. Prior to that, the Cowboys had lost five in a row and they will need another big effort from the Special Teams unit to make up for what has been a stagnant Offense without Dak Prescott behind Center.
Cooper Rush has struggled and the Offensive Line has been banged up, so the Cowboys have not been able to rely on a consistent running game to help out. There is an opportunity to have more success on the ground against this New York Defensive Line, especially if players begin to dial it in, but it looks like being another inconsistent night in the office on this side of the ball.
CeeDee Lamb is playing through an injury, while Cooper Rush will receive a significant boost if Jake Ferguson is back on Thanksgiving Day. Brandin Cooks could also be back, which should give the backup Quarter Back an opportunity to at least make some positive plays against this Giants Secondary.
Much like the Cowboys, the New York Giants are going to want to lean on their Offensive Line to open up running lanes for Tyrone Tracy. This should be a good match up for Tracy, although he might not have the amount of carries you would expect after another Fumble, and Tommy DeVito is going to be asked to use his legs to just move away from the Dallas pass rush pressure and keep the Giants in front of the chains.
Teams have been able to run the ball effectively against the Dallas Defensive Line so it looks the clear game plan to use for the Giants, which should in turn give DeVito a bit more time to throw the ball from third and manageable spots. The Quarter Back did not have his best game last week in the blowout loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but this may be an 'easier' spot for DeVito, even if Trevon Diggs is back for the Cowboys.
It looks a tough game to call with both the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys significantly underperforming this season and with backup Quarter Backs leading the teams out. The Cowboys have dominated this Divisional rival of late with seven straight wins in the series, but Cooper Rush is hard to trust to cover as a favourite of more than a Field Goal.
At the same time, the Giants organisation is making it pretty clear that their focus has become tanking the season and you do have to wonder how players react to that. They did not show up in Week 12, but this is a big national televised spot and you have to believe the Giants can run the ball well enough to keep this competitive, even if they are eventually beaten.
There has to be a concern that this could get very ugly, very quickly for the New York Giants and that their opening couple of drives are going to be very important. If they can at least show some pride, the Giants should be able to make enough plays against Cooper Rush to keep this one close on the scoreboard and make use of the points that are being given to them.
Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Barring a huge collapse from the Buffalo Bills, the hope of winning the AFC East is already over for the Miami Dolphins (5-6). However, three wins in a row have just pulled this team back into the mix for a Wild Card spot in the Playoffs and that has to be the target for Miami the rest of the way, especially if they can keep their key players healthy.
Wins over the Los Angeles Rams, Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots have built momentum, but none of those teams are above 0.500 for the season as we move into Week 13 of the regular season.
With that in mind, the Dolphins have to know there is a significant challenge coming up for them when travelling to face the Green Bay Packers (8-3) who are very much on course to return to the post-season. There is still a hope that the Packers can move past either the Detroit Lions or Minnesota Vikings or both in the NFC North, and Green Bay are certainly going to be feeling pretty good about where they are at right now after beating the San Francisco 49ers.
There has been a real balance to the way they have been performing Offensively with Josh Jacobs running the ball effectively and Jordan Love continuing to show his development and confidence at Quarter Back. It was the Jacobs power-running that helped the Packers crush the 49ers in Week 12 and also alleviated any pressure that Jordan Love has been feeling, which has led to some big mistakes in the passing game.
Those mistakes have not dented Love's confidence, but playing a clean game against the 49ers will just serve as a reminder that Green Bay can go extremely far if they are able to avoid turnovers.
Green Bay can lean on the Offensive Line in this final game on Thanksgiving Day and they should be able to have some success behind Josh Jacobs, even if the Dolphins have been playing the run better during this winning run than they have for much of the season. Some of that may have been down to the opponents faced though and the threat of the Jordan Love arm should mean the Dolphins have to be aware of the plays being called, which should also also give Jacobs a chance to continue to run hard behind the O-Line.
It should open up the passing lanes for Jordan Love who had an efficient game on Sunday, rather than one where he was putting up huge numbers. Ultimately it is about winning Football games and Love can back up that performance against this Miami Secondary.
The Packers Offensive Line has given Jordan Love time in the pocket, which is only aided by being able to run the ball and playing from third and manageable spots, while a cold, snowy evening in Green Bay gives the team another edge.
Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins are downplaying the impact of the likely conditions, but there is no doubting that Miami have something to prove. This Quarter Back and this team have not been as effective in the cold, and Miami have also struggled when playing against stronger teams in the NFL so the challenge in Week 13 is pretty clear.
The Dolphins would love to find a way to establish the run and ease the burden on Tagovailoa at Quarter Back, but they have not run the ball as they would have liked during their three game winning run. In recent history, the Packers Defensive Line have had issues stopping the run, but they have been playing well enough to believe they can contain the Miami rush on Thanksgiving Day and force Tua Tagovailoa to beat them through the air.
Miami do have very strong Receiving options for their Quarter Back to target, but this is a Packers Secondary that have looked very solid all season. Playing out of third and long spots will mean Tagovailoa could be under some pressure from the Packers pass rush, while he will will also have to be aware of the potential for turnovers when throwing against some of these Defensive Backs.
With the expected conditions, running the ball is likely going to be very important and this is where the Green Bay Packers look to have an edge. The Dolphins still have so much to prove when it comes to playing in the cold and when facing stronger teams and that is where the edge has to be given to Green Bay who can find the big plays to pull clear.
Tua Tagovailoa has given the Dolphins a spark since his latest return from a concussion, but it will be tough to extend the three game winning run. He will make some big plays for Miami, but the cold and snow may just highlight the issues that the Dolphins Offensive Line have been having and Green Bay can just ensure they keep the pressure on the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North with a solid win in the nightcap on Thanksgiving Day.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: A new tradition has begun in the NFL with a Black Friday offering and this season it is battle between the top and bottom of the AFC West.
The Kansas City Chiefs (10-1) are hosting the Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) and it is no surprise that they have been set as a heavy favourite. That line is likely going to get wider and wider as we approach kick off with this being the sole NFL offering on Friday, and that can be concerning when you think the Kansas City Chiefs have rarely won games easily this season.
Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are well aware that blowouts in the regular season mean nothing when it comes to the post-season and so they have only done what is needed to keep the wins ticking over. Earning the Number 1 Seed in the Conference is important, but not going to be the be all and end all for the Kansas City Chiefs who are simply using this time to make sure they are ready to fight for another Super Bowl ring.
That was perhaps the reason for the tougher than expected road win at the Carolina Panthers in Week 12, but the Chiefs are back home and can push forward against this struggling Raiders team.
There will be a real battle at the Line of Scrimmage where the Raiders have at least played the run pretty well in recent games. However, the Chiefs Offensive Line have prided themselves on being able to open some big running lanes and the threat of Patrick Mahomes at Quarter Back may mean the Raiders cannot focus on clamping down on the run as they would usually do.
For all of those successes up front, the Secondary has not been able to step up and stop teams from extending drives and we have to expect more of the same on Friday. It is a short week for both teams, but Mahomes performed really well in the win over the Panthers and he can pick up from where he left off against this Raiders team that may be thinking about the end of the season already.
Well the players might be, but Head Coach Antonio Pierce has made it clear that he has no interest in 'tanking' with the Raiders amongst the 'leading' teams for the Number 1 Pick in the Draft.
Like a number of teams struggling, the Raiders have not gotten enough consistency from the Quarter Back position and they would love to be able to take one of the top players coming out of College Football in that position. Gardner Minshew is not going to be ready to go this week, but Aidan O'Connell is back having not appeared in Week 12 and he will get the start ahead of Desmond Ridder.
No matter who was going to get the call, this was always going to be a significant test for the Quarter Back with the Raiders unlikely to be able to establish the run. That means Aidan O'Connell is going to have to perform under some duress, especially considering the Offensive Line struggles in pass protection, and his recovery from a broken thumb will be tested.
After a strong start, the Kansas City Secondary have had some issues when teams have chosen to throw against them in recent games and the Raiders may have some success too. Slowing down Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers will not be easy, but the Chiefs may just get O'Connell thinking at times and that is where they may extract a mistake or two from the Quarter Back.
This is the second Divisional game between these two in a little over a month and the Kansas City Chiefs were 7 point winners on the road to continue their recent dominance of the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Chiefs should not have forgotten being embarrassed at home on Christmas Day last year when set as an 11 point favourite against the Raiders, which should keep the home team focused on Black Friday. Prior to that, the Chiefs had beat Las Vegas pretty convincingly twice in a row and the feeling is that they will be able to secure a solid win at home, while giving the Raiders plenty to think about it when it comes to the direction this franchise is heading.
MY PICKS: Detroit Lions - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
New York Giants + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers - 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Kansas City Chiefs - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)
Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)
Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)
Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)
Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)
Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)
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