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Friday 20 November 2020

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (November 21-23)

I really enjoy the summer major international tournaments we usually get every couple of years, but outside of that I find the international games during the course of the club season nothing more than a hindrance to the important football.

Like many I will not be too worried that we won't see any more international football until March 2021 at a time when the world may seem a much safer place- personally I was not convinced it was a good idea to play international football during the pandemic which continues to rage in Europe and the United States, but for the main the players have been well looked after.

Positive news regarding a potential vaccine should mean 2021 is a much better year for most of us compared to what has been a really long, and difficult 2020.


It may also mean the fans are able to attend games before the end of the 2020/21 season and that has to be music to the ears of so many. I have greatly missed going to Old Trafford and I am looking forward to returning there as soon as possible, but in the mean time the players have to try and find a way to motivate themselves through the next couple of months.

There won't be a lot of respite for club football with matches coming thick and fast in the weeks ahead through to the next calendar year and that also means the same for those of us playing Fantasy Football.

More on that later.


Newcastle United v Chelsea Pick: I am not a big fan of the international breaks in the calendar in normal times, but I really don't see the need of these breaks and fixtures when there is a global pandemic raging.

It has meant Football clubs have been keeping their fingers crossed that players not only avoid injuries, but avoid picking up a positive test once outside of their bubbles and miss playing time for them.

At the time of writing it feels like both Newcastle United and Chelsea have been fortunate, although the hosts of this opening Premier League fixture do have a long injury list to contend with from prior to the last break. Many of those names are not expected back for Steve Bruce, although he will be hopeful that Callum Wilson can take part having been a huge influence on the Newcastle United team in his short time with the club.

Despite these issues, Newcastle United remain a hard team to read having been able to produce some big performances to earn some positive results and at the same time look out of sorts in other games days later. They have been a mixed bag at home and this is not a ground that Chelsea have enjoyed visiting, but the West London club look to be trending in a positive direction.

You can't always tell what the two week break has done to the momentum of any club, but you also can't dismiss the 4 wins in a row Chelsea produced prior to the November internationals. It is one thing winning games, but Chelsea have scored at least three times in each victory and out-scored opponents 14-1 in that time.

Frank Lampard has also helped the starting eleven find the balance they were missing earlier in the season as they have looked much more secure at the back. The arrival of Edouard Mendy has certainly helped and this looks like a rare opportunity for Chelsea to leave this part of the North East with the points.

Newcastle United have some pace in the forward areas which has to be respected, but they are not as watertight at the back and that is a worry for them. While they deserved to beat Burnley and Everton here, Newcastle United were clearly second best when conceding three to Brighton and four to Manchester United and I think Chelsea are more likely to follow that lead.

Backing the visitors to win a game featuring at least two goals looks a decent enough approach to this fixture.


Aston Villa v Brighton Pick: Two teams who have played some decent football for the neutrals to enjoy will be meeting on Saturday afternoon and I do think it will be another good watch.

Aston Villa and Brighton both want to get the ball down and play some attacking football, although it is Dean Smith's team who have been producing the results. Graham Potter may feel his Brighton team deserve more than they have gotten so far this season, but he has struggled to find the balance between good, attractive football and being competent from a defensive point of view.

Since losing 4-2 at Everton, Brighton have only conceded 4 goals in 4 Premier League games, but at the same time they have hit the net just 3 times. Unsurprisingly that has not led to wins, but Brighton have also been difficult to beat and so underestimating them will not work out well for Aston Villa.

I doubt the home team will do that considering they have lost their last 3 at Villa Park in the Premier League against Leeds United and Southampton. The goals Aston Villa have conceded at home in the Premier League has to be a worry, but they were perhaps a little unfortunate against The Saints who showed tremendous composure in the final third.

Brighton don't feel like they have the same amount of clinical finishing on their recent form and Aston Villa did get the better of them in the Premier League and League Cup last season. An in-form attack is also scoring plenty of goals for Aston Villa and my feeling is that they have too many goals in the side that will give them the edge in this League game out of the international break.

In all 3 games between these teams last season both teams did find a way to hit the back of the net- that may be the case again, but I do give Aston Villa the edge and think they secure the points on the day.


Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City Pick: This is the stand out fixture in the Premier League this weekend and the one that may begin to tell us a lot more about Tottenham Hotspur and their ability to mount a real Premier League title challenge.

Jose Mourinho's men have impressed through the first two and a half months of the season and they have bounced back from an opening day defeat to Everton to sit in 2nd place. A win on Saturday will mean Tottenham Hotspur will be top of the table for twenty-four hours at least, and it will also give the team a boost ahead of a tough run of fixtures which begin with this one.

You cannot dismiss the points on the board, but you would also be a little foolish if you don't consider the Tottenham Hotspur fixture list so far this season. Only Everton and Southampton sit in the top half of the table from the eight Premier League teams faced by Spurs and that can't be ignored when considering how well they have done.

Recent results have also been earned in somewhat fortunate circumstances with late goals and a little fortune on the side of Tottenham Hotspur. You do have to wonder how long they can keep producing against the stats and I do believe there is a lot for Tottenham Hotspur to prove before they can be considered real title challengers.

On Saturday we will learn more about Tottenham Hotspur as they perhaps are facing Manchester City at a bad time.

Pep Guardiola's men are unbeaten in 9 overall in all competitions and they have not lost any of their last 8 away from home, while Manchester City look to have a much healthier squad. I expect Raheem Sterling to be ready to go and there is a better balance to the Manchester City performances this season than their results may fully indicate.

Defensively they have been stronger in recent weeks, but the impact has been on the attacking side of things as Manchester City have not been creating as much as we have become used to in the last couple of seasons. Possession is still very much something that Manchester City will have a large share of, but there seems to be more control about the way they approaching games.

I would be surprised if Guardiola changes those plans for this fixture, but I would also be very surprised if Jose Mourinho asks his team to be as positive as he has wanted them to be in the early fixtures. My feeling is that he will return to type and that will be focusing on containing first and foremost.

Even in Tottenham Hotspur's win over Manchester City back in February the home team rode their luck before taking advantage of Oleksandr Zinchenko's sending off which changed the entire complexion of the match. I expect this one to be similar with the visitors controlling the ball and perhaps having the best chances, but Manchester City's performances and style seems to have changed and I am not sure the layers have figured that out.

Maybe the goals will return with the injuries clearing up, but this feels like it could be a tight, competitive fixture where a point might not be seen as a poor result for either team. The last 3 Manchester City away Premier League games have ended with two or fewer goals scored, while half of Tottenham Hotspur's 4 home League games have done the same.

A 2-1 scoreline either way is perhaps the biggest danger, but I do think this will be a tight game where even a single goal may be enough to secure the full points.


Manchester United v West Brom Pick: Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has seen some of the pressure ease on him in the light of the 1-3 win over Everton, but the manager himself will know that he still needs Manchester United to offer more consistency in their results and performances.

Playing at Old Trafford without the fans has become very difficult for Manchester United and they are both struggling for goals and wins here. The side have not won their last 6 Premier League games at Old Trafford going back to the end of last season and there is a doubt about some of their top striking options who have picked up knocks or are returning from far flung destinations in international duty.

Even then it would be a big surprise if Manchester United cannot end their poor run at Old Trafford in the Premier League against a West Brom team who are having as many difficulties scoring goals. Slaven Bilic is at odds with those above him and his team fell over the line when it came to promotion last season with that form seeping into the start of this one.

There is some pace in the final third which will put some pressure on Manchester United's defence, but the home team have looked largely secure at the back in their most recent games. Big mistakes have proven costly though and it can be hard to trust this defence to avoid those in any fixture they play, but that seems to the most likely way West Brom will score here.

Since blowing the 3-0 lead over Chelsea, West Brom have scored a single goal in 5 Premier League games.

The focus is then on Manchester United to try and break down a defence that is likely going to be sitting deep and making life difficult for the home team. Unfortunately for West Brom, they have not really looked that effective at doing that and I think Manchester United will find one or two good chances that should see them come out on top for the first time at Old Trafford in the Premier League since early July.

A lack of goals is worrying for Manchester United and they may have to settle for a narrow victory here, but I don't think Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is going to care as long as United DO win.


Fulham v Everton Pick: The international break may not have come at a bad time for either Fulham or Everton who suffered disappointing losses the last time they took to the field two weeks ago.

A fast start from Everton looks a distance away in the rearview mirror after losing 3 Premier League games in a row, although it has largely underlined the lack of depth in the squad. The first eleven isn't bad, but Everton have missed the presence of Richarlison and James Rodriguez has also been dealing with a knock.

Both should be available for selection on Sunday and Everton do look to have a positive fixture list in front of them.

In saying that Carlo Ancelotti won't be taking anything for granted in this visit to Fulham who beat West Brom in their last game at Craven Cottage. Before that it has been a struggle for Fulham to reach the level needed to win League games and Scott Parker will have been thinking about the Ademola Lookman Penalty miss against West Ham United which cost his team a point.

Lookman should be inspired to take on his former team this weekend and I do think Fulham can create chances against this Everton team. They have lacked a consistent cutting edge, but Fulham have been better in recent games and I think that can see them get after an Everton team who have conceded at least twice in their last 5 Premier League games.

However, I also think Everton will be better going forward with their full complement of attackers likely to be available. While Fulham have shown some improvement going forward, they are still vulnerable defensively and I think that will show up here as both teams are likely to hit the net.

A 1-1 draw doesn't really do a lot for either manager and I think this is going to be one of the fixtures that feature at least three goals this weekend. That has occurred in 3 of the 5 home games Fulham have played and in 3 of the last 4 Everton away games and a 2-1 victory either way is not going to surprise too many.


Sheffield United v West Ham United Pick: A tough run of fixtures have really not helped Sheffield United in what has been a poor start to the season, but Chris Wilder needs a result soon.

He is not likely to be under pressure from the board, but Wilder himself will understand it is a results business and consolidating Sheffield United's place in the top flight is the main ambition for the season.

This looks a more winnable fixture for Sheffield United who have been a little unlucky in some of the fixtures played this season. A lack of goals has been a real problem for Sheffield United since returning to the Premier League and this season the defence has not been able to make up for that this time around.

West Ham United are certainly playing better than their current League position may suggest and David Moyes has guided them through a very difficult part of their schedule. Now things are looking 'easier' but the continued absence of Michail Antonio is a blow to the system and this is a fixture that I am not really getting a feel for.

I could make the case for any result, but it could be one where Fantasy players look to target West Ham United assets with better fixtures still to come too.


Leeds United v Arsenal Pick: The second of the scheduled Super Sunday games in the United Kingdom comes from Elland Road and involves two teams looking to bounce back from a poor result two weeks ago.

Leeds United were beaten 4-1 at Crystal Palace, although they harshly had a goal disallowed when 1-0 down, while Arsenal were crushed 0-3 by Aston Villa at the Emirates Stadium.

Both teams will feel this represents a good chance to bounce back from those defeats, although neither team has shown a lot of consistency.

In their last couple of home games Leeds United have lost to Wolves and Leicester City, although they were unfortunate in the former and made some massive mistakes to fall into a big hole in the latter.

Arsenal did win at Manchester United in their last away Premier League game and their only losses have come at Anfield and the Etihad Stadium, but Mikel Arteta's team have struggled to create a host of chances.

At least they have defended better in the most part and taking the Aston Villa result as an exception rather than the rule. That will give Arsenal a chance, but this Leeds United team have been positive going forward and look to have goals in the side which may be enough to earn a result in this fixture.

Goals should be in the offing even if Arsenal have struggled to really put a lot of shots together as they continue to learn a new system. Leeds United can't always be trusted to make the best of their chances created either, but I do think they have enough to earn a result here and Arsenal look plenty short as the favourites to win this fixture away from home.


Liverpool v Leicester City Pick: There have already been some questions about how the Liverpool squad were going to cope without their best centre half, but losing Joe Gomez and Mohamed Salah in the international break has really stretched them heading into this Premier League weekend.

Mohamed Salah should be back in time for the next League game at the end of the month, but the loss of Gomez is huge for Liverpool who will have to dip into their Under 23 squad if either Joel Matip or Fabinho miss time in the weeks before the January transfer window.

Those two should pair up for Liverpool on Sunday against the League leaders, but the home team are also likely going to be without Trent Alexander-Arnold. That means three of the preferred back four could be absent and Brendan Rodgers may not have a better chance to win at Anfield as the opposing manager.

Liverpool have looked a little vulnerable at times at Anfield, although they have ground down teams and worked their way to 4 wins from 4 in the Premier League. However, Arsenal, West Ham United and Sheffield United have all taken the lead at Anfield before being narrowly beaten and now they are facing a Leicester City team who have won every away game played in the 2020/21 season.

That has to be an encouragement for Leicester City who have pace and quality in the final third and I do think they will head to Anfield with some confidence. The squad looks to be in good shape for this fixture and Jamie Vardy will be fresh having called time on his international career.

It took an injury time Penalty for Liverpool to beat Leicester City here last season and despite the strong run against this opponent at Anfield I feel Liverpool will find it tough to earn the result here. Losing Mohamed Salah takes away a big threat and Leicester City have scored plenty of away goals this season which suggests they can find a way to the points.

A couple of weeks ago you could have backed Leicester City with a big start, but that has changed as Liverpool have lost key performers. Even now you can still look to get behind Leicester City to avoid defeat and I do believe they are good enough to do that and end Liverpool's perfect start at Anfield in the Premier League.


Burnley v Crystal Palace Pick: A difficult start to the season has left Burnley in the relegation zone, but the players will still believe in manager Sean Dyche and results should follow.

Burnley have been struggling in most aspects of their play, but I do think they will begin to pick up results. That may not start this week though against a Crystal Palace team who have won twice in a row at Turf Moor and who may be a popular pick to make it a hat-trick of victories here.

Roy Hodgson's men have ridden their luck at times in those wins here, but I can't really trust Crystal Palace who have been hit or miss all season. They are just likely to win for the third time here as they are to lose 2-0 and show very little going forward and with that in mind I think it may be a fixture in which I employ a defender from the visitors in my Fantasy Football team this week.

A lack of goals in the Burnley squad is a worry for Sean Dyche, but he has shown he can quickly turn things around for his team even when they hit a rough patch and I would not be surprised if either team comes away with the points.


Wolves v Southampton Pick: The last game of the Premier League weekend comes on Monday evening from Molineux and I think two teams who are pretty secure at the back and perhaps not creating as many chances going forward are going to be involved in another tight battle.

Southampton have been scoring plenty of goals so that may be surprising to hear them described like that, but they are missing Danny Ings who is a major source of goals for them. They are showing clinical finishing from the chances that are being created in recent games which makes them dangerous, but this Wolves team are very well organised and hard to break down.

Losing Conor Coady would be a huge blow for the home team though as his presence is key to the three man central defence that Wolves like to play with. That may offer the visitors more opportunities, but I think the system is important for Wolves and they will feel they can contain Southampton here.

On the other side Wolves have not been as strong going forward as they would like to be- they do have pace and quality in the final third, but they are not creating a lot of good chances. That is going to be a challenge for them against a Southampton team who have looked much better defensively ever since conceding five in their home defeat to Tottenham Hotspur.

Since then Southampton have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 Premier League games. Wolves have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 and I think it would be a surprise if one of these teams are not producing one on Monday in what could be a tight fixture decided by a single goal either way.

MY PICKS: Chelsea & Over 1.5 Goals
Aston Villa - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Tottenham Hotspur-Manchester City Under 2.5 Goals
Manchester United Win to Nil
Fulham-Everton Over 2.5 Goals
Leeds United + 0.5 Asian Handicap
Leicester City + 0.5 Asian Handicap
Wolves-Southampton Both Teams to Score- NO


Fantasy Football GameWeek 9
The international break came at a time when my Fantasy Football team had a very strong GameWeek 8 and it has led to some problems.

Injuries and players losing spots in their first teams have meant changes have needed to be made, but I was fortunate to be able to carry two transfers into GameWeek 9.

I made a decision to use one of those before the international games were played, and that was bringing in Diogo Jota in place of Riyad Mahrez- the price changes that were likely going to take place meant I wanted to get in front of that transfer as Jota looks to have pushed himself into the Liverpool first team and Mahrez has slipped backwards in the Manchester City pecking order.


However it was not a decision that has really worked out as well as I had hoped with Christian Pulisic and Leandro Trossard looking like doubts for the next GameWeek. To add to the issues Mohamed Salah has returned a positive Coronavirus reading which means he is out on Sunday and potentially missing GW10 too.

I have decided I will carry Salah through another GW and then re-evaluate what I want to do with him, but it also means I need to make another transfer in GW9 to make sure I have a full eleven playing this time unlike a couple of weeks ago.

The obvious player that needs to be moved out is Christian Pulisic who has been hit by the injury bug all season- replacements for him are plentiful although I am looking to make decisions which will benefit my team in the long-term.

Essentially I do not want to take a hit this week, but I think I am going to have to accept at least one or maybe two in the coming couple of GWs in order to change the look of the squad as I want. That is another reason I do not want to take out Salah as I feel he is a player I am going to want to bring back in and it feels like a wasted move unless I plan on going without him for a number of weeks.

In my opinion Liverpool are going to have to find a way to outscore teams before the January transfer window allows them to strengthen defensively and that will make Salah and the likes of Jota important to them.


Making the right moves is not easy with so many managers admitting they are going to need to rotate their starting elevens to keep players from logging too many minutes and thus facing long injury issues. There are a couple of clubs I am targeting for the relative long-term, but I am comfortable with where my squad is for the main part.

The two Manchester clubs look to have a very good set of fixtures coming up and those could be the ones who can make the difference in the weeks ahead. However you have to consider the balance needed to deal with Premier League and Champions League commitments and so I am mainly going to look to target those names once this week is out of the way.

Manchester United do have the home game with West Brom which will be appealing to attack, but their main assets are priced up high enough.

However it is Pulisic who needs to be moved out for now and I have to use the next few hours to have a real think about how I am going to do that best to make sure I have eleven starters this weekend.

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