The WTA Tour decided to cancel their end of year Finals, but the ATP World Tour have returned to London for the last time before the Finals are moved to Turin. Playing in London has been a boost for the tournament with huge numbers arriving to watch the show in November, but that won't be the case this year with the lockdown in place in England meaning the players will be operating in a largely empty O2 Arena.
Linesmen and women have been removed too which means Hawkeye is making all the calls and that could be something we see more and more in the years ahead. I think it was a positive for the outside courts at the US Open in September and many players believe it is the best way forward at least on the surfaces other than the clay courts.
It does feel like 2021 may have a more usual feel to the Tour although we have yet to really hear how the Australian Open is going to bring players in from around the world. My feeling is that most will arrive Down Under earlier than usual and take in events in Australia ahead of the Open, although keeping them all in secure bubbles is going to be far from easy.
My hope is that by the time the French Open is set to run in June that fans will begin to be allowed back into the Stadiums in smaller numbers than usual and the same for Wimbledon and the US Open as everyone hopes for some normality to resume.
Eight players have arrived (with two alternates) in London this week and the draw for the two Groups have been made.
World Number 1 Novak Djokovic looks to be in a difficult section with the two Paris Masters Finalists Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev his main rivals and outsider Diego Sebastian Schwartzman completing the quartet.
The other Group is led by Rafael Nadal who will face in-form Andrey Rublev on the opening day of the tournament with US Open Champion Dominic Thiem and defending Champion Stefanos Tsitsipas making up the remaining spots. This looks a very tough draw for Nadal who has never won the World Tour Finals and has long suggested it should be played on different surfaces than an indoor hard court on which he has rarely thrived.
Opening matches are very important in the Round Robin stage of the tournament with the losing players already in 'must win' mode by the time they return to the courts a couple of days later. That does raise some of the pressure, but there have been enough players who have recovered from an opening loss to believe that players should be able to cope.
The conditions may feel different without the fans and the courts being as busy as usual, and that is something to keep an eye on. Some have suggested it may be a slower hard court which may suit Rafael Nadal after all, but things will become clear after the first couple of days at the Tour Finals.
Stefanos Tsitsipas v Dominic Thiem: The defending US Open Champion takes on the last winner of the ATP World Tour Finals on Sunday on Day 1 of the 2020 edition of this tournament.
There is going to be a very different feel for the players going out onto an empty court which is also going to be shorn of the lines judges with Hawkeye taking care of all calls. The different atmosphere may be one that Dominic Thiem and Stefanos Tsitsipas are a little more used to having played on the Tour over the last few months without fans inside the Stadiums, but even then I am sure most players would love to see a return of the fans as soon as it is possible.
No one will doubt that it is Dominic Thiem who will be happier with his work since the resumption of play having won the US Open- adding a Grand Slam to your resume does take you up a level and Thiem will notice there is a larger bullseye on his back in tournaments in 2021 than he has faced previously despite being one of the regular top ten players on the Tour in that time.
He played well at the French Open in the short time after he had won the US Open, but a relatively early defeat in Vienna might make it feel that Dominic Thiem is a little undercooked for this tournament, although fresher physically than he usually is at this time of the season.
Stefanos Tsitsipas had a very disappointing US Open when the draw seemingly opened up for him, but he bounced back to reach another Grand Slam Semi Final at the French Open. Like Thiem, the Greek star didn't really play well in the indoor events following Roland Garros, although Tsitsipas will be much happier in returning to London where he won the biggest title of his career so far.
They do match up pretty well with each other as Stefanos Tsitsipas has the more effective serve, but Dominic Thiem has the superior return game. I don't think anyone would be surprised to read that their head to head reflects how close they are matched with Thiem leading 4-3, and it is the Austrian's slightly better returning which has made the difference in those matches.
However it is Stefanos Tsitsipas who has won two of their last three matches on a hard court including in the Final in London twelve months ago. Overall in 2020 the defending Champion has the superior hard court numbers, and the potentially slower conditions that could be in play in London in the final year of the ATP World Tour Finals in this City should favour Stefanos Tsitsipas too.
Tie-breakers proved important in the match between these two players for the World Tour Finals title last year and I can see those being influential on this match too. Backing the slight underdog and defending Champion Stefanos Tsitsipas to come out on the right side of the key breaker looks the call here and I think he can make a winning start to the Group.
Rafael Nadal - 1.5 games v Andrey Rublev: The re-scheduling of the French Open from June to September put a few doubts around the ability of Rafael Nadal to win yet another Grand Slam title in the French capital. By the end of the tournament people must have been wondering what the fuss was about as the Spaniard crushed Novak Djokovic in the Final and barely broke a sweat to continue his dominance of the French Open.
Usually this time of the year is less successful for Rafael Nadal who has never really enjoyed playing on the indoor hard courts. The expected slower conditions in 2020 might aid him, but Nadal has not made it out of the Group Stage in his last two appearances in London and there has to be an element of doubt in the mind of this strong player despite the huge amount of successes he has enjoyed on tennis courts around the world.
The World Tour Finals are one event that Rafael Nadal has yet to win and he will have to begin in strong form if he is going to get the better of the in-form Andrey Rublev. The young Russian has really improved in 2020 and he will head into the new season as a top ten player, but Rublev has to show he is ready to compete against the other players in and around his World Ranking.
Andrey Rublev reached the Quarter Final at the US Open and he has won titles in St Petersburg and Vienna before a narrow loss in the early Rounds in Paris. Those are runs that have to be very much respected, although it does have to be pointed out that Rublev is 'only' 4-3 when facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2020.
He does bring in the kind of numbers that should threaten Rafael Nadal who was beaten in the Semi Final in Paris having decided to skip the US Open so he was fully prepared for the French Open which was played soon afterwards. Andrey Rublev has really looked good behind serve, but he is an aggressive returner and that does put pressure on opponents, although the return numbers have not been nearly as strong when facing the top 20 Ranked opponents he has met on this surface this season.
Rafael Nadal has an effective enough return to believe he can at least prevent Andrey Rublev from dictating on the return, although his own return was largely ineffective in Paris earlier this month. That is from a small sample of matches with just four played in the French capital when it came to the indoor hard court tournament run there, but even a look at the return numbers last year suggest that the Spaniard is not able to really get his teeth into opponent's serves as you would have come to expect from Nadal.
That does make this an interesting match, but I do think Rafael Nadal has the mental edge which could be important on the day. As much as Andrey Rublev has improved, I do think the youngster still holds some of the best players in high regard which maybe prevents him from playing his best tennis against them.
Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev both beat Rublev in straight sets at the Grand Slams played on hard courts this season and Rafael Nadal did the same when these two met at the Quarter Final of the US Open in 2017. That is some time ago, but I just feel at the big moments Rublev may allow his mind to wander a little more than Rafael Nadal will and I think that leads to the former World Number 1 making a strong start to the tournament unlike last season.
MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
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