On Saturday we will get to see Daniil Medvedev vs Rafael Nadal and I am assuming that is going to be played in the evening session at the O2 Arena considering the Russian player has been scheduled to go on Friday evening in his dead rubber Group match.
Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev have been given the opportunity to go out in the afternoon session as they look to secure their spot opposite Dominic Thiem in the other Semi Final.
In the coming days/weeks we should hear whether the players are going to be heading to the Australian Open as planned or whether Quarantine rules are unlikely to be relaxed. The ATP and WTA Tours had to make considerable changes to the 2020 calendar after the pandemic forced the suspension of tournaments from March through to August and any Quarantine issues in Australia could mean the first Grand Slam of the season is pushed back a week and encroaching on other tournaments.
A week delay should not have a really big impact on what players are looking to schedule for themselves, although it will be interesting to see where we all stand come February and March 2021.
Hopefully in a much more positive place than we are dealing with at the moment.
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Alexander Zverev: Wins over Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and defeats to Daniil Medvedev have left Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev looking to secure their place in the Semi Final in this final Group match. The momentum may be with Zverev who won his last match two days ago on the same day Novak Djokovic was clearly second best and not looking like he was fully engaged in the match.
There is a motivation to win this tournament and join Roger Federer on six titles, but Djokovic is going to have to be a lot better than he was a couple of days ago. He went on a stretch of seven straight dropped games during the match and Djokovic admitted he can't afford to be doing that again when facing some of the top names on the Tour as the World Number 1 will be seeing in the Tour Finals.
Much is going to depend on what kind of intensity Novak Djokovic has during this match and he will be looking to recover against a player who beat him here in London at this tournament two years ago. Alexander Zverev was beaten in the Group Stage, but gained revenge over Djokovic in the Final and his win over Diego Sebastian Schwartzman will have given him some belief that he can move into the Knock Out Rounds again.
The numbers have been very similar through the first two matches with Novak Djokovic producing the slightly better serving and Alexander Zverev producing the slightly stronger returning. In something of a surprise, Djokovic only created a single break point in the defeat to Daniil Medvedev, but he should have better successes against the Zverev serve particularly if he can work his way into seeing a number of second serves which has been a big weakness of the young German.
Over the course of 2020 Novak Djokovic has been the stronger hard court player and he has won two of the three previous matches between these players on this surface. They are 1-1 at the World Tour Finals and the two matches were dominated by the eventual winner which does raise some questions here.
The Novak Djokovic performance on Wednesday is a real worry because anything similar will see him exit the World Tour Finals. However I do think he is going to be better in this one and the match up with Alexander Zverev may be one that feels a little more comfortable for the World Number 1 although it is going to be far from easy.
I don't want to read too much into the last performances of the players even if it is a concern seeing Novak Djokovic as lifeless as he seemed to be. Without fans in the Arena I do think it can be easy for matches to go flat for the losing player, especially at the end of a long season, and that may see one of these players fall away.
My feeling is that Novak Djokovic has more ways to win the match than Alexander Zverev who will have to serve very well to keep the World Number 1 on the back-foot. I think that may separate the two on the day and Djokovic has won three of the last four between these players and all of those wins have come relatively easily.
The World Number 1 has the edge on the numbers in the head to head by a healthy margin too and I will look for Djokovic to cover here.
Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 games v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: Beating Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic has given Daniil Medvedev a place in the World Tour Finals Semi Final for the first time and as Group Winner no less. He has to complete the third of the matches scheduled when he takes on Diego Sebastian Schwartzman on Friday evening in what is a dead rubber considering his opponent has lost both matches in his debut season in the tournament.
Daniil Medvedev will know all about how Diego Sebastian Schwartzman is feeling after going through the same in his debut season in the World Tour Finals in 2019. He was perhaps a little more unfortunate than Schwartzman though who has looked unsettled in the tournament and has not really been able to find his best tennis on the indoor hard courts.
The two losses suffered by Diego Sebastian Schwartzman this week have been fairly one-sided and it was only saving a couple of break points late in the match against Alexander Zverev that helped him cover the handicap mark in that one. It only delayed the inevitable, but I think Medvedev is going to be more focused to make sure he is ready to get through this match as quickly as possible.
Having a dead rubber is difficult to read and we have already seen one player lose focus with a place in the next Round secured. Dominic Thiem was beaten easily in his dead rubber on Thursday, but Daniil Medvedev won't have forgotten losing all three Group matches last year and will be looking to make complete amends.
The one aspect which is different in these Group matches compared with usual Tennis tournaments is that this is a match in which Daniil Medvedev will play again in this tournament even if he loses. Will he really want to dig deep and waste energy with a Semi Final to come if he does fall behind?
That isn't an easy question to answer, but I feel Medvedev is going to want to keep the momentum going and he should be much fresher than Thiem having won both matches in straight sets and in relatively quick time. The Russian has also won all four matches against Schwartzman and the numbers show that Daniil Medvedev has dominated the head to head including beating him very easily in Paris earlier this month.
In this tournament the numbers are very much in favour of Medvedev too and I do have to worry about the fact that Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has only held in 59% of the service games played. With Daniil Medvedev creating a lot of pressure with his return, I do think he may end up rolling through this opponent and arguably go into the weekend as favourite to win the tournament.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
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