It's that time of the year for turkey and for Football, although the 2020 Thanksgiving Day schedule is one game lighter than we have become used to seeing.
The AFC North battle between the Steelers and the Ravens has been moved to Sunday, although at this point there is no guarantee the game will even be played then. A Covid-19 outbreak in the Baltimore camp has meant the prime time showing on Thanksgiving Day will be empty, although the bigger questions that will be answered in the coming days will be how the game would be re-scheduled IF the Sunday slot doesn't work either.
Before that we do have a couple of traditional Thanksgiving hosts taking to the field beginning in Detroit and then heading to Dallas. Both games look to be competitive ones on paper and the layers are not taking too many chances with the lines.
You can read my selections from Thanksgiving Day below and the remainder of the Week 12 selections will be posted later this week.
Houston Texans @ Detroit Lions Pick: The traditional Thanksgiving Day NFL opener comes from Detroit where the Lions are looking to bounce back from a horrible Week 11 showing. Losing to the Carolina Panthers without Teddy Bridgewater or Christian McCaffrey would have been a disappointment anyway, but failing to score a single point has really warmed up the hot seat underneath Matt Patricia with Detroit struggling at 4-6.
They actually have the chance to host a team with a worse record on Thanksgiving Day as the Lions host the Houston Texans. However the latter are coming in off a win to move to 3-7 and while the season looks to be a lost one, the Texans are looking for a strong end to the season and have something to build upon going into 2021.
As a Miami Dolphins fan I want to see nothing but Houston losses with their first two Draft Picks in 2021 heading to South Florida. But it feels like a game that the Texans can back up their win over the New England Patriots even if it doesn't feel great thinking about backing Houston as a road underdog.
Deshaun Watson was spectacular in Week 11 and he has every chance of keeping the good times rolling against a Detroit Secondary which has struggled in pass coverage. The Lions are getting very little pressure up front and it feels like a tough day is coming up for them with Watson likely to move away from any he does see and make sure he is making some huge plays down the field.
It may be all down to Watson and his arm, but he is capable of keeping Detroit off-balance with an ability to scramble down the field when things open up for him. Duke Johnson should also be able to make one or two big plays running against a porous Detroit Defensive Line, although the main chunk plays will come from Deshaun Watson who has some strong Receivers ready to make the catches for him.
In usual circumstances I would think the Detroit Lions are the right play as the home underdog, but coming off the showing in Week 11 I do wonder if they have enough time to make adjustments and whether the players are still behind the Head Coach. The biggest factor may actually be Matthew Stafford who really struggled in Week 11 as his thumb injury continues to affect his level of play.
Matthew Stafford is missing a couple of key Receivers and the issues with the thumb do make it difficult to believe the Quarter Back can expose some of the issues that Houston have had in the Secondary. The Offensive Line has not really protected Stafford as well as they would have liked either so there may be an opportunity for the likes of JJ Watt to slow the passing game by getting to Stafford too.
There is a potential return for D'Andre Swift this week and that is a huge boost for the Detroit Lions and may ease the game for Matthew Stafford. The Running Back has shown more than flashes of his ability from the backfield and he looks to be in a favourable match up against the Houston Defensive Line giving up 144 yards per game on the ground across their last three games at 4.7 yards per carry.
Keeping Matthew Stafford in front of the chains will help and I expect Swift to have a big game from scrimmage, although at some point Houston may force the Quarter Back to have to beat them through the air. If they can force Detroit to have to throw to stay with them, it could be a long day for the hosts with the injury Stafford is dealing with.
The Texans do have some poor trends as the favourite in recent times, but they are 5-2-2 against the spread in their last nine against a team with a losing record at home. Detroit are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven as the home underdog and they have lost their last three Thanksgiving Day games.
While the spread has not crossed the key number 3 I do think the road favourite can be backed here to cover.
Washington Football Team @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Does anyone want to win the NFC East? At least one of the four teams are going to be hosting a PlayOff Game in January, but all four teams have won three games this season which leaves the Division wide open with six weeks of the regular season remaining.
With that in mind every Divisional game left is absolutely massive and the one on Thanksgiving Day could be pivotal for the Washington Football Team and the Dallas Cowboys. Both come into the game at 3-7 which leaves them half a game behind the Philadelphia Eagles, but the winner will move to the top of the NFC East and that is going to bring plenty of motivation to the field.
Injuries have hurt both teams but particularly the Dallas Cowboys, although signs over the last two weeks is that they are finally moving past those and focusing on their performances on the field. The win in Week 11 at Minnesota has snapped a four game losing run, while Washington also come in with some confidence having won for the second time in four games when knocking off the Cincinnati Bengals a few days ago.
The Football Team have turned to veteran Alex Smith at Quarter Back and he has played well enough without taking too many risks that produced costly turnovers in the loss to the New York Giants. This is not going to be an easy game for Smith with the Cowboys Defensive unit showing improvement in recent weeks as they finally begin to understand the new schemes that have been brought in by the Coaching staff, although Smith has to take advantage of the injuries in the Secondary if Washington are to win this game.
Ron Rivera will game plan to lean on the running game through JD McKissic and Antonio Gibson and earlier in the season it may have been a plan that was guaranteed to work. However one of the big improvements from the Dallas Defensive Line has been finding a way to clamp down on the run as injuries have cleared up a Linebacker and it may mean those two players are actually bigger threats catching short passes from the Quarter Back and trying to make plays in open space.
Both McKissic and Gibson are capable of doing that, but Washington will continue to pound the ball on the ground and look to keep the Cowboys thinking. Alex Smith is not someone who is going to take a lot of deep shots down the field, but he has been getting the passing game going and has playmakers who can cause problems for the Cowboys if he can avoid the increasingly productive Dallas pass rush and get the ball to them.
Effectively Alex Smith is a game manager who will be looking to give Washington a chance and Dallas have someone similar running things at Quarter Back at the moment too. Andy Dalton is a big upgrade on the backups that have had to start while he gets through the concussion protocol and the Quarter Back will have a point to prove having suffered that hit against the Football Team in the nation's capital a few weeks ago.
Like his counterpart, Dalton is likely going to lean on the running game to give himself a chance to keep the chains moving and Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard look to have a very good match up here. With the Offensive Line getting a couple of more secure players back, Dallas have begun to run the ball efficiently and both Elliot and Pollard should have a big impact on the game on the ground.
Tony Pollard in particularly should also give Andy Dalton a safety blanket when he seeps out of the backfield and it is an important facet of the game for Dallas as they look to slow down the much vaunted Washington pass rush. That pass rush has been able to get to the Quarter Back time after time and they are very effective when Washington have a lead, but running the ball and quick passes will slow them down a touch.
It has also been a key reason Washington have strong passing numbers in 2020, but Dallas do have some very talented Receivers who will believe they can win their battles outside and make plays for their Quarter Back too. Andy Dalton was solid throwing the ball in the win over Minnesota, although I don't think Dallas will want to lean on him having to win the game.
This feels like a good match up and I certainly think it will be a lot closer than the Washington blow out of Dallas in Week 7 when I backed the Football Team as a narrow home underdog. Dallas have to be playing with something to prove this time and I think they are definitely improving with a real belief they can win the NFC East and with a better balance Offensively the Cowboys should be more capable of winning.
However I do think the Washington Football Team have the tools to at least slow down Dallas Offensively in a better manner than the Minnesota Vikings were able to do. As long as Alex Smith avoids the big turnovers Washington should be able to move the chains and if they can get in front the pass rush should be able to rattle Andy Dalton.
It feels close as I said so taking the road team with the start that will give us a push with a Field Goal defeat is the play. The underdog has long held a strong edge in the against the spread market in this Divisional series and Washington are 9-4 against the spread in their last thirteen visits to Dallas.
The Football Team do not have a good recent record as a road underdog, but Dallas have not covered as a favourite in five attempts so taking the points feels good enough for me.
Markus Paul sadly passed away this week which should motivate the Dallas Cowboys to honour their Head Strength & Conditioning Coach.
New York Giants @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: There will have been plenty inside the organisation who feel the Cincinnati Bengals have found their franchise Quarter Back in Joe Burrow and they would have been really worried to see him go down with a serious looking injury in Week 11. The rookie is expected back in 2021, although there is no telling whether he will miss any regular season time next season.
For now the Bengals are just focusing on completing their regular season as healthy as possible, but Burrow is out and Joe Mixon is set to miss the remainder of the year too. When you are at 2-7-1 for the season the injuries to your best players will likely see the rest of the team perhaps calling time on the amount of effort they want to put in.
That is especially the case in these non-Conference games left and the Bengals will not be pushed along by a full house in the stands either.
In saying that it is not easy to back the 3-7 New York Giants to win as a big road favourite, although they are in a position to move to the top of the Division with a win on Sunday. The Giants have won back to back games and they are looking for a three game winning run for the first time in four years which is quite staggering to think.
Recent games have seen the Giants look like they are getting in some kind of rhythm and that will be encouraging to a franchise that must see the PlayOffs as a real possibility at the end of the season. Daniel Jones might not have been the most efficient Quarter Back this season, but he has been looking after the ball better than he was and that could be key for the Giants as they look to join the Washington Football Team on four wins for the season.
Daniel Jones should be able to have a decent game, although it won't be all down to the Quarter Back with the Giants Offensive Line coming together and opening some solid holes up front. They are facing a Cincinnati Defensive Line which has not been able to contain the run throughout the season and so the Giants should be in front of the chains and that should make life easier for Daniel Jones.
The Offensive Line have not always been the best in pass protection, but New York are not expected to be challenged by the Cincinnati pass rush which may mean Daniel Jones has time to expose the holes that have existed in the Secondary with an improving Receiving corps.
If Joe Burrow was playing I do think the Bengals would have made this a really competitive game, but Brandon Allen will be going at Quarter Back and that should make the game plan a little easier for the Giants. Brandon Allen does have starting experience in the NFL, but he averaged just over 170 passing yards per game in the three starts with the Denver Broncos and the key for the road team is making sure they shut down the run.
It has been an issue for the Giants Defensive Line at times this season, but they are not facing Joe Mixon which should make it easier for them to shut down the line of scrimmage. That will be what they are aiming to do and make Allen beat them through the air.
There are definitely opportunities for Allen to make plays down the field, but I do have to wonder how he will cope with the pass rush pressure that the Giants are likely to bring to the field. The Bengals should have their successes when the ball is in their hands, but I do think relying on these back ups in key skill positions Offensively will make it a big challenge to keep up on the scoreboard.
The game is definitely more important for the Giants than the Bengals and that motivation is likely to show up.
I am a little worried about backing the Giants as a road favourite, but they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven in that spot. They are also 15-5-1 against the spread in the last twenty-one against a team with a losing record and I like the New York Giants here.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: Two weeks ago these two AFC South Divisional rivals met for the first time this season and both are coming off impressive Week 11 wins to go into this Week 12 game at 7-3. The Indianapolis Colts got the better of the Tennessee Titans in Week 10 and they are a favourite to see off their Divisional rivals in this one, although you can never underestimate the difficulty of not only beating a team twice in the same season, but also the motivation that the Titans will have in earning revenge.
The Colts deserved to win their first game although many will point to a blocked punt being the turning point in favour of Indianapolis.
Tennessee have to play a much cleaner game, but they have to be very confident having knocked off the Baltimore Ravens on the road. That win came in Overtime on the same day the Indianapolis Colts had to recover from being in a big hole to eventually knock off the Green Bay Packers.
The winning team will go into the final five weeks of the season with a big edge in terms of the Divisional race, although it feels more important for Tennessee to win this game. They can't really afford to go into those five weeks being a game behind in terms of their record and also losing the tie-breaker with the Colts.
As they do most weeks, the Titans will look to be carried on the shoulders of Derrick Henry and he is a Running Back that will never worry about the reputation of Defensive Lines that he is facing. Derrick Henry did have over 100 yards against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 10, but those were hard yards he had to earn and the Colts Defensive Line have been one that have played the run very well all season.
Last week they clamped down on Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams despite having to worry about the ability Aaron Rodgers has throwing the ball and that will offer the Indianapolis Defensive Line encouragement that they can at least contain Henry in this one too. Doing that will shift the pressure onto Ryan Tannehill who has just lot a bit of rhythm when throwing the ball to his Receivers in recent games.
Ryan Tannehill is likely to have some time as he is largely well protected by his Offensive Line and he is now facing a relatively pedestrian pass rush. In their previous meeting Tannehill was only put down once, but the Colts Secondary don't really lose focus on their schemes and I do think the Titans may have some issues Offensively as they did in Week 10.
Running the ball may be more of an issue for Indianapolis who have Jonathan Taylor missing out this week, although it was Nyhiem Hines who was the most effective Back in their first meeting. That should mean Indianapolis are still able to have some success on the ground, although Tennessee's Defensive Line have been tough in recent games and so Hines may instead be a big threat catching the ball out of the backfield.
Injuries in the Tennessee Secondary have made them vulnerable to the pass and I do think Philip Rivers is able to take advantage of that. He might have only had one Touchdown, but Rivers threw for over 300 yards against the Titans and I very much expect the veteran to have another very good game here.
Ultimately Rivers should have all the time he needs to hit his Receivers down the field because the Titans are missing their best pass rusher and have simply not been able to get any consistent pressure up front all season. That time has seen the Titans Secondary struggle to contain the pass and I do think the Colts are going to have too much firepower for them in this big Divisional game.
The road team has covered the spread in the last four in this series, but the favourite is 13-3 against the spread in the last sixteen in this Divisional rivalry. The Colts are also 7-2 against the spread in the last nine at home against Tennessee.
Indianapolis are also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the home favourite overall, while the Titans are 1-4 against the spread in the last five on the road. I would have loved this spread to be under the key number 3, but even where it is I do like the Indianapolis Colts to take control of the AFC South.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: This is not really an ideal spot for either of these teams who are coming off tough Divisional losses in Week 11, although the Las Vegas Raiders have to be more motivated than the Atlanta Falcons. While the Raiders are at 6-4 and firmly in the PlayOff race, the Falcons are at 3-7 which leaves them in the basement of the NFC South and planning for 2021 must already have begun.
There is also the chance that the Falcons are not concerning themselves with the Las Vegas Raiders knowing they get a second crack at the New Orleans Saints in Week 13 and would love to play spoiler against them.
With that in mind I would not be that surprised if some of the key players that have been limited in practice this week are not risked in a bid to get them back on the field for the game against the Saints. One of the major names that is in doubt is Julio Jones and that would be a huge loss for Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Offensive unit.
It presents a problem for the Falcons because they have been struggling to run the ball and are not likely to get a lot of joy from the Raiders Defensive Line which has been strong at controlling the line of scrimmage. That will likely mean Ryan is having to throw from third and long and missing someone as talented at getting open and making plays as Julio Jones would be a big blow.
I still think Matt Ryan can have some success against a young Las Vegas Secondary that are still learning their trade at this level and who have been exposed through the air. A late drive from the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Raiders in Week 11 and it was a fairly easy one for Patrick Mahomes- Matt Ryan isn't as good as Mahomes but Calvin Ridley gives him options and he should make some plays in this one to give the Falcons a chance.
Even then, Matt Ryan has to be careful that he is not holding the ball for too long as his Offensive Line continues to struggle to offer him passing protection. The Raiders might not be the most productive team at getting to the Quarter Back, but if the Falcons are in obvious passing down and distance Las Vegas could have some success in getting to Ryan and bringing him down.
The Raiders pass Defense may have let them down in Week 11, but Derek Carr and the Offensive unit were in an impressive rhythm and I do think Las Vegas will be able to move the chains with some consistency in this one. We have yet to see Carr show the consistency at Quarter Back to suggest he can be the franchise player for Las Vegas, but when he has been good he has been very good and the performance against the Kansas City Chiefs gives him something to build upon.
A key for Derek Carr is the balance that the Raiders should be able to set out Offensively- they have been running the ball very well even during Offensive Line injuries, but Las Vegas look to be getting healthier in that department and that is music to the ears of the team. Through the injuries they have been opening holes for Josh Jacobs and Devontae Booker and both should be able to pick up from where they have been in recent weeks against an Atlanta team struggling on the ground.
Derek Carr does have some quality Receiving options and he has been given as much time as he needs to make plays by his Offensive Line. I think he will be able to throw the ball down the field as play-action slows down the Atlanta pass rush, which is not the best, and I really do like the Raiders to win on the road.
The second game with the New Orleans Saints in three weeks sandwiches this game and that has to be a distraction for the Atlanta Falcons in a non-Conference game with the season likely over.
Las Vegas are 6-1 against the spread in the last seven on the road and they are 11-5 against the spread in their last sixteen when looking to bounce back from a defeat. I do have to respect the Falcons who are 10-4 against the spread in their last fourteen as the home underdog, but they may be concentrating on other opponents and I like the Raiders to be the one who can bounce back from a Week 11 Divisional loss.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Pick: It is all change at Quarter Back for both of these AFC East teams going into Week 12 and it may be the final chance for Sam Darnold to show the New York Jets that he can be a franchise Quarter Back for them. He has only recently been the First Round Draft selection of the Jets, but injuries and a really poorly built roster around him and a terrible Head Coach have all been detrimental to Darnold's development.
The problem for Sam Darnold is that if there are sweeping changes made at the Jets in the off-season, the likelihood is that any new General Manager or Head Coach may want their own Quarter Back behind Center and won't want to live or die by choices made by those previously in charge.
The New York Jets are the only team in the NFL who have yet to win a game and they are very much on course to finish with the Number 1 Overall Pick in the 2021 Draft which would likely mean a choice between Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields. It is the nature of the NFL, but Sam Darnold will be looking to display his talents over the last six games and at least earn another opportunity with a different team even if things don't work out with the Jets.
Sam Darnold will be coming in for veteran Joe Flacco who almost helped the Jets produce a maiden win in his last couple of starts. However Darnold is going up against a very good Miami Dolphins Defense which has been the main reason the team are at 6-4 for the season and on course to challenge for the AFC East as well as a PlayOff spot.
With the Offensive Line banged up, the Dolphins may be able to crack into the backfield and either clamp down on the run or get to Sam Darnold and force errant throws or drop him for Sacks. The Dolphins have not always been strong on the ground, but Frank Gore is unlikely to intimidate this Defensive Line which has some key names back from injuries and illness.
I do feel there is a talented player inside Sam Darnold that would be unlocked in a better environment, but that we are not likely to see that in Week 12. This Miami Secondary is amongst the best in the NFL and the Dolphins have made big play after big play which is going to make it very difficult for Sam Darnold to avoid making a mistake or two that really gives the visiting team the edge.
The Miami Dolphins will be hoping their own young Quarter Back Tua Tagovailoa is able to show he is capable of performing at this level for years to come, but injury looks set to keep him out. Personally I would have kept Tagovailoa on the sidelines and learning for the whole year, but Head Coach Brian Flores brought him in and the Dolphins kept winning until an ugly loss in Week 11 at the Denver Broncos.
Prior to that it was Ryan Fitzpatrick who was leading the Dolphins very successfully and he only just came up short in helping Miami recover from a big deficit in Week 11. The veteran is going back behind Center this week and I do think Fitzpatrick is the better option for Miami for the remainder of the season and certainly encourages me to pick them to win this game.
The AFC East is still up for grabs for the Miami Dolphins and so is the Wild Card places in the AFC so there should be a motivation to bounce back from the disappointing loss last time out. One of the main issues the Dolphins have had Offensively is being able to run the ball with any consistency and they are not likely to have a lot of success in this one either.
However I am more encouraged by the news that Fitzpatrick will be starting at Quarter Back rather than Tagovailoa because I think he is the better player for the Dolphins at this stage of their respective careers. I do think 'Fitz Magic' can expose the New York Secondary which is banged up and giving up some big gains in recent games, while the Miami Offensive Line should give Ryan Fitzpatrick the time he needs to help Miami win this game.
The Dolphins have won five of their last six games against the New York Jets including beating them 24-0 at home earlier this season.
Miami are 5-2-1 against the spread in their last eight games as the favourite and they have covered in their last four games following a loss. The Jets are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the home underdog, but I am not sure they can make enough Offensive plays to make up for the weak Secondary performances we have seen and it should see the Dolphins beat the Jets again and cover this mark too.
Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: These two teams may have contrasting records, but both the Seattle Seahawks and Philadelphia Eagles go into Monday Night Football in Week 12 with a chance to end the evening on top of their Division. The Seahawks have enjoyed the Sunday NFL schedule as their two closest rivals in the NFC West were both beaten, while the Philadelphia Eagles can retake the NFC East lead with a win after seeing the New York Giants and Washington Football Team produce a fourth win of the season.
This feels like a bigger game for the Eagles who have a more difficult remaining schedule than the Seattle Seahawks, but that does not mean Pete Carroll's men are arriving on the east coast of the United States without ambition. They last played on Thursday Night Football in Week 11 and that means Seattle are not only well rested, but they have also gotten some really good injury news that will bolster the team on the Defensive side of the ball.
While the Secondary has not played up to the best level, there have been signs that the overall Seattle Defensive performances have been improving. The Secondary has not been helped by injuries, but they are getting a couple of key players back and that is going to make things difficult for Carson Wentz who has been inconsistent to say the least in the regular season.
He has not been helped by his Offensive Line nor the injuries in the Receiving positions, but that is not an entire excuse for Wentz whose long-term future as the Quarter Back of the Philadelphia Eagles will be beginning to be questioned. In this game his team are going up against a strong Seattle Defensive Line which has not only been able to rattle the Quarter Back, but who have shut down the run and that is only going to increase the challenge for Carson Wentz.
If the Eagles are not able to run the ball there is a real doubt that Wentz will be given the time to try and convert third and long spots and that has regularly seen the Quarter Back push too much and end up making key mistakes. The injuries being cleared up in the Seattle Secondary should mean they are able to make one or two plays that have not been there in the 2020 season and I think it will be very hard for Philadelphia to have consistent Offensive success.
It is the Philadelphia Defensive unit which may be able to keep them in this Monday Night Football game. They have been strong against the run too, although I do think Seattle are going to be able to make one or two plays on the ground with an increasingly healthy Running Back committee that should be music to the ears of Russell Wilson.
The Quarter Back has shown he can make plays on the ground when he is looking to scramble away from trouble and Russell Wilson is going to need all of that if they are going to win this game. While there have been one or two holes exploited in the Secondary, the Philadelphia Defensive Line has been able to really get after the Quarter Back and this Seattle Offensive Line have long been struggling when it comes to protecting Russell Wilson.
Fortunately for Seattle Wilson is one of the premier play-makers on the run and he has some big weapons in the Receiving corps that are able to scramble with him and make space for throws down the field. The pressure up front has meant that the Secondary have been able to make one or two plays, but I am not sure the Eagles will be able to shut down this Seattle passing game with the size and speed they have outside.
Turnovers could really play a big part in this game, but.I do think the Seattle Seahawks have had the time to prepare which will give them a chance of winning this one. They have covered the spread in their last five games at Philadelphia and Seattle won twice in this Stadium last season by the same 17-9 scoreline.
Seattle are 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine against a team with a losing record at home. The Eagles have won their last two home games, but they are 3-7 against the spread in their last ten here and I will look for the Seattle Seahawks to cover.
MY PICKS: Houston Texans - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Washington Football Team + 3 Points @ 1.87 Bet365 (2 Units)
New York Giants - 5.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts - 3 Points @ 1.86 William Hill (2 Units)
Las Vegas Raiders - 3 Points @ 1.86 William Hill (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 8 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
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