The ATP World Tour Finals are played in London for the last time for the foreseeable future and a good Final is expected to take place on Sunday when Daniil Medvedev takes on Dominic Thiem.
Hopefully the 2021 season will be much more like we have become accustomed to seeing, but for now there is no certainty about anything and we just have to hope better things are to come.
A winning record has been secured at the ATP World Tour Finals, but I am looking to wrap up the 2020 season with one more winner as I make my selection from the Final.
Daniil Medvedev v Dominic Thiem: These two players reached the Semi Final as Seeded, but both were also Seeded to exit the tournament at that stage. Instead it was Dominic Thiem who beat the World Number 1 in three tough sets before Daniil Medvedev beat the World Number 2 in three tough sets and that means both players have little time to freshen up ahead of the Final.
A slight edge has to be given to Dominic Thiem who played six hours earlier than Daniil Medvedev on Saturday, although that may not matter so much when you think the former has spent a lot more time on the court over the week. Both players have beaten Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal over the last eight days, but the numbers are indicating that Daniil Medvedev is playing at a considerably higher level than Dominic Thiem.
The mental advantage may be with the Austrian who beat Medvedev in straight sets at the US Open in September on his way to winning the Grand Slam. Dominic Thiem deserved his win in the Semi Final, although I do think Daniil Medvedev could have pushed him to a fourth and possibly a fifth set if not for a couple of weak tie-breakers played.
Over the last eight days Daniil Medvedev has been returning at a far higher level than Dominic Thiem and I think that will help him earn a measure of revenge over Thiem for the defeat in New York City. In their three previous head to head matches on the hard courts, it is Medvedev who has the slightly better return numbers too and I do think that is going to be an important part of this match.
While Daniil Medvedev has won 42% of return points played and has broken in 30% of return games played, Dominic Thiem is at 29% and 7% in the same categories. The serve has been a big weapon for Thiem in this tournament, but even in that category it is Daniil Medvedev who has the slight edge and I do think he is going to be the fresher player despite going on second in the Semi Final.
The conditions are clearly being favoured by Dominic Thiem who can really ramp up the power on the forehand, but I do think Medvedev is very comfortable too. His win at the Paris Masters has been backed up by his performances in London and I do think the return of serve is going to be key to the outcome of the match with both serving well enough.
It is an area that Daniil Medvedev looks to be the stronger of the two players and I will look for the Russian to win the biggest title of his career and perhaps use this tournament as a springboard to a first Grand Slam title in 2021.
MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
ATP World Tour Finals: 8-6, + 2.68 Units (28 Units Staked + 9.57% Yield)
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