Week 13 of the normal College Football season is usually a pivotal time of the regular season, but that is not the case in 2020 like so many other things we have taken for granted.
Instead the regular season has been pushed towards mid-December when the Championship Games are also expected to be paid, although you can still make or break a season on Thanksgiving Weekend.
Games have been spread from Thursday through to Sunday this week with rivalry games still on the board and you can see my selections below.
I will be adding to this thread over the next couple of days too.
Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Iowa Hawkeyes Pick: The Big Ten West is firmly in the grip of the Northwestern Wildcats, but that doesn't mean the Iowa Hawkeyes and Nebraska Cornhuskers will be allowed to coast towards the end of the 2020 regular season. The Hawkeyes are still very much in a position to be called up for a Bowl Game next month, while the Cornhuskers have to show they are still behind beleaguered Head Coach Scott Frost who has failed to revitalise this proud school.
A 1-3 record is a big disappointment for Nebraska even if two of those losses have come against the Division leaders in the Big Ten Conference. It is the defeat to the Illinois Fighting Illini which will have really worried the Athletic Director at Nebraska and I do think Frost is very much on the hot seat and will be fired if he is not able to turn things around.
Quarter Back problems continue to blight the Cornhuskers and they are going to announce a starter closer to this game, but whether it is Adrian Martinez or Luke McCaffrey it is going to be a difficult day for Nebraska. They are facing an Iowa team who are motoring with three straight wins behind them to bounce back from a poor 0-2 start to the 2020 season and the one point defeat to Northwestern will have already shown the Hawkeyes that they are amongst the best teams in this Conference.
Usually the Quarter Back could turn around and hand the ball off with the hope that Nebraska would be in front of the chains, but that looks like a tough task against this Hawkeyes Defensive Line that have clamped down on the run. Both Martinez and McCaffrey are able to make some plays scrambling with their legs, but it feels like it is going to be a difficult day running the ball for Nebraska and becoming one-dimensional against this Defensive unit would be a big challenge.
There are one or two holes that teams have exploited against Iowa's Secondary, but it has not been a good year throwing the ball for Nebraska who have been a little loose with their control that has led to turnovers. The pass rush is especially an issue for Nebraska's Offensive Line which has not been able to protect whoever has been behind Center and any time they are behind the chains they have to feel the pressure is coming.
It is going to make it difficult for Nebraska to score a lot of points against this Iowa Defensive unit and that could be a major problem if the Cornhuskers are not able to slow down the run when they are on Defense.
Last week the Fighting Illini ran all over Iowa and there is no doubt that the Hawkeyes are going to be trying to do the same. The Offensive Line has opened up big holes for Mekhi Sargent and Tyler Goodson and both are coming off big performances against the Penn State Nittany Lions so should be able to pick up up from where they left off in Week 12.
They have been strong running the ball in their three game winning run and Iowa are not expected to find a lot of resistance from the Nebraska Defensive Line. For much of this game I imagine Iowa are going to be in front of the chains in down and distance and that should mean play-action throws are available for them if they look to move the ball through the air too.
There has been a limited pass rush being created by Nebraska and I just think they are going to have a tough time stopping their hosts much as they did when facing Illinois last week. Add in the turnover margin that Iowa have and I do think the Hawkeyes will make the plays to cover what looks a big spread on paper.
Iowa are 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five games at home, while Nebraska are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven on the road. The Cornhuskers are also 2-5 against the spread in their last seven as the underdog and I am going to back the home team to cover here.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ North Carolina Tar Heels Pick: They are in the foursome that makes up the first College Football PlayOff, but the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will come out of their Bye Week knowing the hard work is still in front of them. The Fighting Irish are the only unbeaten team in the ACC Conference, but they are likely going to have to play the Clemson Tigers with Trevor Lawrence in the Championship Game next month and that will decide which of those two teams will make the PlayOffs.
Brian Kelly is not going to worry too much about the long-term implications of a Championship Game, but he will be well aware that a defeat before that game will put Notre Dame in a difficult position to be invited into the PlayOffs. Their best bet is to remain unbeaten in the regular season and then hope even a defeat is not costly in the Championship Game with other Conferences perhaps struggling to put up better teams.
On paper this looks to be the most difficult game left for the Fighting Irish in the regular season. They are visiting the North Carolina Tar Heels who have a 6-2 record and may yet feel they could push into the Championship Game consideration in this Conference as long as they are able to win this game.
Mack Brown has to be really pleased with the way his Tar Heels have performed on the Offensive side, but he will also be well aware that his team have to have improved Defensively during the Bye Week to earn the upset.
Slowing down Ian Book won't be easy with the Quarter Back coming on leaps and bounds for Notre Dame in the 2020 regular season. He has been aided by a strong running game and the Fighting Irish have found a perfect balance Offensively which makes it very difficult to believe the Tar Heels will have improved enough to be able to slow them down.
One element which could be a factor is that the Notre Dame Offensive Line may be missing a couple of starters which may just weaken them in this one. At least they have had some time to try and bring the replacements up to task, but the Fighting Irish have to be aware of the North Carolina pass rush which has been very productive.
The full strength Offensive Line may have been able to protect Ian Book, but the replacements could have a tougher day and that will give the Tar Heels some chance to slow down drives. However it may be clutching at straws as the Fighting Irish are expected to be able to run the ball and then look for Book to make the throws which has raised his stock in College Football throughout 2020.
North Carolina will be trying to keep up behind Quarter Back Sam Howell who has been a huge part of the successes the Tar Heels have had this season. He has been helping the Tar Heels average over 550 yards of Offense per game in 2020 and the Tar Heels will believe they can at least test the Fighting Irish as Clemson did in the high-scoring defeat the Tigers suffered.
I do think Howell will make some big plays for the home team, but the key to the outcome of this game will be the line of scrimmage and whether North Carolina can impose their running game on this Notre Dame Fighting Irish Defensive Line. All season the Fighting Irish have been able to clamp down on the run and force teams to become a little one-dimensional which leads to a fierce pass rush getting to the Quarter Back and turnovers to be created.
The Tar Heels have been very good on the ground and their Quarter Back is able to scramble with his legs too, but I do really like this Notre Dame Defensive Line. Even though they won't completely shut down North Carolina, I do think they can make enough plays to put the home team in obvious passing down and distance and that would be a big win for the road favourites.
As good as the North Carolina Offensive Line has been when it comes to opening up holes for the running game, they are not as effective when it comes to pass protection. It is an area where the Fighting Irish can get some joy to either force Field Goals or Punts and that could be the key to Notre Dame winning this game and covering the mark.
The road team has covered in the last four games in this series.
Notre Dame are 5-1 against the spread in their last six as the road favourite. You have to respect the fact that the Tar Heels have a 4-1 record against the spread in their last five as a home underdog, but I can't help feel that they are going to struggle to stop Notre Dame Offensively and not be able to keep up on the scoreboard despite the powerful Offense run by North Carolina in 2020.
Maryland Terrapins @ Indiana Hoosiers Pick: Covid-19 issues have meant the Maryland Terrapins have not been able to play a game for almost a month and cancelling the game against the Ohio State Buckeyes means they are not in control of their own destiny in the Big Ten East. The Terrapins are 2-1 in the Conference and they did bounce back from the shellacking handed out by the Northwestern Wildcats, but there has to be a slight concern that they are not battle ready to take on an opponent like the one they face in Wee 13.
Wins over the Minnesota Golden Gophers and Penn State Nittany Lions means Maryland have beaten teams with a combined 2-8 record, but the Indiana Hoosiers are 4-1 in the 2020 season.
In Week 12 a poor start meant Indiana were playing catch up against the Ohio State Buckeyes and while they made a game of things, it was a hole that was too difficult to overcome. There is still so much to like about the Hoosiers in 2020 and Head Coach Tom Allen has made it clear to the players that there is still so much to play for if they can secure a strong end to the season even if the Big Ten Championship is beyond them.
The Hoosiers are back home this weekend having played their last two games at Michigan State and Ohio State. There has been much to like about them this season, but Tom Allen would love to see the Offensive unit produce a little more balance in their play rather than relying on the arm of Michael Penix Jr as much as they have, even though the Quarter Back has stood up in the face of all challenges faced.
They have simply not been able to run the ball with any consistency which has meant looking for Penix Jr to step back and throw the ball down the field. There is a feeling that Indiana can find one or two more holes up front against this Maryland Defensive Line, but they have shown they can be hard to stop through the air anyway and I expect Michael Penix Jr to have another very big game.
He is coming off a career best 491 passing yards and there are some big holes in the Maryland Secondary that Michael Penix Jr will be expecting to exploit. The Offensive Line may not have opened big holes for the run, but they have given their Quarter Back the time he needs to hit his Receivers and I think that will be something we see in Week 13 as Indiana look to score at least 35 points for the fifth time in six games in 2020.
The Indiana Hoosiers should be able to have success Offensively, but I do think Maryland will have their own positives even though we cannot be exactly sure of how the Terrapins have been dealing with all the adversity they are facing off the field. I do think Maryland will have the chance to establish the run in this one, especially with the dual-threat from Quarter Back, although the Hoosiers Defensive Line is arguably the strength of the team this side of the ball.
Taulia Tagovailoa, Tua's brother, is running the show for Maryland and he has shown he can scramble for First Downs as well as throw for them. Over the course of the season Indiana's Secondary have played pretty well, but they have been exposed for some big plays in their more recent games although that might be partly down to the fact that the Hoosiers have played a better level of competition.
With that in mind I do think Tagovailoa is going to make some big throws in this one, but he has to be aware of the Indiana pass rush which is likely going to get the better of the Maryland Offensive Line. If the Terrapins fall behind the chains it could be difficult for the Quarter Back, although Taulia Tagovailoa has put together a two game stretch where he has the most passing yards in over twenty years.
Even though I do think Maryland will have some very good drives, I do think the Indiana Hoosiers can bounce back from their Week 12 loss at Ohio State and show they are one of the better teams in the Conference. The home team is 4-0 against the spread in the last four in this series and the Hoosiers can keep that trend going.
Indiana have covered in their last six games as the home favourite and Maryland have not played that well when set as the road underdog. The Terrapins won in Happy Valley earlier this month, but they were blown out by the Northwestern Wildcats and I think the Indiana Hoosiers will be able to make enough plays to cover this mark.
Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Mississippi Rebels Pick: These two teams are out of contention in the SEC West, but that won't mean the rivalry game between the Mississippi Rebels and Mississippi State Bulldogs has any less intensity to it. The Egg Bowl has been won by the Bulldogs in the last two seasons, the 2019 win coming in controversial fashion, and two first year Head Coaches will be looking to make a real mark for the fans to savour.
The Mississippi Rebels have won two games in a row and have scored 113 points in those wins over the Vanderbilt Commodores and South Carolina Gamecocks. Those wins have moved the Rebels to 3-4 for the 2020 season and they will have been buzzing during the Bye Week as they get set to host their rivals.
Mike Leach has not has the early impact he would have wanted with Mississippi State, but the Air Raid Offense took a bit of time to become established in his last job with the Washington State Cougars and the same will be the case in the SEC. They might have a 2-5 record, but outside of the blow out loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide this has been a fairly competitive team and that makes the points being offered to them look appealing.
A part of the reason for the spread is clearly the last two wins for the Rebels which has seen them score points at will. Those have to be respected, but they were big favourites in both games and have done what was largely expected of them.
The Rebels should be able to continue piling up the points in this one, although they might find their Offense looking a little one-dimensional if Mississippi can't get things moving on the ground. They have managed to do that for much of the season, but the Mississippi State Defensive Line have been able to clamp down on the run and that will mean the home team will have to take to the air.
It is likely to be a successful approach because the Bulldogs Secondary have not been able to slow down any opponent and Mississippi have been piling up the numbers. Matt Corral has been well protected by his Offensive Line and I do think he will find some big holes in the Secondary which he can exploit as he continues to help the team average over 350 passing yards per game in 2020.
Avoiding turnovers will be a key for Corral if the Rebels are going to win this one easily, but as poor as the Mississippi State Secondary have been they have been able to force Interceptions and extra possessions could be so important in this rivalry.
Mike Leach is looking for his team to simply show some improvement in each passing week this season with the belief that the Bulldogs will be much better for it in 2021. He has been largely pleased with what he has seen and even the close loss to the Georgia Bulldogs did not dent his spirit.
One aspect that the Head Coach would love to see an improvement from is the running game, but they have struggled to get anything going on the ground all season. As poor as the Mississippi Defensive Line has been when it comes to stopping the run, it is hard to trust a Bulldogs team averaging a ridiculously poor 21 yards per game on the ground on average this season.
KJ Costello and Will Rogers have both had time at Quarter Back for the Bulldogs and it would not be a surprise to see both playing their part in this one. The Offensive Line has been a little weak when it comes to pass protection too, but I am not sure Mississippi have the pass rush to really get to the Quarter Back and it should be a big day throwing the ball.
The Rebels have a Secondary which has given up big plays through the season too, but they may be looking to take advantage of any mistakes that either Costello or Rogers make. In recent games the Bulldogs have been taking care of the ball much better than they were earlier in 2020 and that should mean they have a chance to score plenty of points too.
I would have loved to have gotten double digit points in this one, but I am still happy enough with the amount of points being offered to Mississippi State.
The underdog is now 6-2 against the spread in the last eight Egg Bowls and the road team have gone 4-1 against the spread in the last five. Mississippi State have some poor trends as the underdog which is a concern, but I will look for them to keep this one close with their ability to make enough plays through the air to stay with the hot scoring Rebels.
MY PICKS: Iowa Hawkeyes - 13.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Indiana Hoosiers - 12 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Mississippi State Bulldogs + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights + 11 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Duke Blue Devils - 1 Point @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
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