I'll be honest and say where my NFL Picks have been largely working out pretty effectively, my College Football Picks have been terrible.
I do think the fact that this is not a pro sport is perhaps making things a little more funky in this pandemic times, while the start times of the various Conferences have also not helped matters.
Those are excuses and I need to be better going forward having felt like I have missed some good angles and overplayed others.
Let's hope Week 11 is considerably better.
Vanderbilt Commodores @ Kentucky Wildcats Pick: The SEC has lost a number of games in Week 11 as the Covid-19 virus rips through some of the schools, but the Kentucky Wildcats and the Vanderbilt Commodores will get to take the limelight in the early slot. Both teams have struggled in the 2020 season with the Wildcats at 2-4 and the Commodores at 0-5, but there might be more motivation in the Kentucky camp who will still be looking to earn enough wins to become Bowl eligible at the least.
That is already looking beyond Vanderbilt who have not really played spoiler either with some heavy losses to hand. They have challenged the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Week 10 before going down to a defeat, their best performance since the end of September in their first game, but Vanderbilt remain a big underdog going into Week 11.
On the face of things you do have to wonder what Kentucky have done to be such a favourite especially as they have scored a combined 13 points in their last two games which have both resulted in defeats. At least they have had a Bye Week to re-focus ahead of two big games against the Alabama Crimson Tide and Florida Gators, but Kentucky will need some momentum to take into those games against the favourites to compete in the SEC Championship Game assuming the regular season can be closed out despite the virus forcing some games to be re-scheduled and possibly cancelled.
It is the Offensive side of the ball that the Wildcats need to improve if they are going to be more than a road bump for the two top teams in the SEC. They do have a chance to showcase some of that in this one against the struggling Commodores Defensive unit, but the problem has been the Quarter Back position and there is no doubting how ineffective that can make any Offensive unit in American Football when you are not getting enough from that player.
Kentucky should be able to at least run the ball efficiently in this game having just struggled in their last three games for consistency. They are facing a Vanderbilt Defensive Line which has not coped with the ground game and the Wildcats will be very aware of the importance of establishing the run and at least giving Joey Gatewood, the expected starting Quarter Back, an opportunity to have a better game than he managed against the Georgia Bulldogs two weeks ago.
Joey Gatewood struggled to make plays for big yards in that game despite what looks like a good percentage of passes completed, but Kentucky know they need him to pick up the play so teams can't focus down on stopping the run. Running the ball will slow down the Vanderbilt pass rush, but Gatewood has to make plays against a Commodores Secondary which has not contained the passing game at all this season.
If he can do that, Kentucky will feel they can score enough points to produce a comfortable win with their Defensive unit picking up the slack even in the losing efforts of late. While the Offense has produced 13 points in the last two games, the Defensive unit has only allowed 34 points and that despite being put in short fields or having to protect from turnovers.
There have been one or two signs that the Vanderbilt Commodores have found an Offensive identity which has been working for them, but this is a step up when it comes to the level of Defensive opponent they are facing. Keyon Henry-Brooks has had two solid outings at Running Back, but the Vanderbilt Offensive Line will not find it easy to establish the run against this Wildcats Defensive Line and that will mean pressure on their young Quarter Back.
Ken Seals has helped the Commodores average over 275 passing yards per game across his last three starts, but again you have to credit the Kentucky Secondary for the way they have played even in losing efforts. The one negative for the Wildcats has been a lack of a real pass rush, but that has still not affected their ability to make plays and Seals has to be aware that this is a team who have turned the ball over through the air.
It is a huge spread and that has to be a concern when you think of the Kentucky Offensive struggles- it might mean leaning on the Defensive unit to come up and make some big plays, but they have managed that in wins over Mississippi State and Tennessee last month. Kentucky have also blown out Vanderbilt in two of their last three meetings, although games here have been much closer.
Vanderbilt are 4-10 against the spread in their last fourteen games as the underdog and did put in a huge effort to come up short in Week 10. The Wildcats are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight as the home favourite and I think there is just enough in the tank to see them cover this big number in Week 11.
Indiana Hoosiers @ Michigan State Spartans Pick: The late start to the Big Ten Conference in the 2020 College Football season may be accounting for some of the strange early results. In the Big Ten East the Michigan State Spartans, Michigan Wolverines and Penn State Nittany Lions have a combined 2-7 record, while the Indiana Hoosiers and Maryland Terrapins are in the top three with a combined 5-1 record.
The Hoosiers fans will point out that two of their wins have been over the Wolverines and the Nittany Lions and they will head to East Lansing with plenty of confidence behind them that they can beat the Spartans too. A blow out win over the Wolverines as a home underdog will only have underlined how well Indiana have been playing and this is a huge challenge for Michigan State who have been set as the home underdog in Week 11.
The Spartans also upset rivals Michigan, but their defeat to Rutgers and the blow out loss to Iowa suggests that the Wolverines are simply not that good. The same can be said for Michigan State and it is perhaps no surprise that the early season results have ended up with Vegas not wanting to disrespect Indiana and overrate Michigan State any more.
Pressure has been on Rocky Lombardi at the Quarter Back position for the Michigan State Spartans and much of that is down to the fact that the Offensive Line have not been able to open consistent holes for the running game. The Spartans are averaging an awful 2.2 yards per carry through their opening three games of the season, and Michigan State cannot expect to find a lot of success in this one which is going to mean leaning on a Quarter Back who has been inconsistent to say the least.
If you simply look at the passing yards you won't be too down on Rocky Lombardi who is close to averaging 300 passing yards per game, but that does not tell the whole story by any stretch of the imagination. Interceptions have been a real issue for Lombardi and he is now taking on an Indiana Secondary who have thrived on creating turnovers even if they do play 'bend, don't break' Defense at times.
You do have to believe the Spartans Offensive Line can give Lombardi some time to make plays, but he has not been able to take advantage. It is also very difficult to be consistent when teams know you have to throw as the running game is leaving the Spartans in third and long far too often and that is where Indiana will look to continue to make some big plays and remain on course in the Big Ten East.
The turnovers have been key for Indiana who have not really played as well on the Offensive side of the ball as they have Defensively. Like the Spartans, Indiana may struggle for balance when they have the ball as they have struggled to run the ball with consistency and Michigan State still roll out a Defensive Line which is capable of making big plays on the line of scrimmage.
Michael Penix Jr has simply been better than Rocky Lombardi when it comes to his Quarter Back play and he has improved to 8-1 as a starter for the Hoosiers. The one loss will need to be avenged on Saturday as it came against the Spartans in 2019, but Penix Jr has to worry about himself and making sure he continues to play smart football.
He has avoided the turnovers which have killed Michigan State and the Spartans Secondary has not made the same kind of plays as Indiana's have. Michael Penix Jr should have time with his Offensive Line protecting him well enough and the Quarter Back should be able to make some big throws against this Michigan State Secondary which has played better than their overall record may suggest.
Indiana do have a miserable record against this Divisional rival and that is a concern, but I do think the road underdog can do enough to cover this spread in a win. The Hoosiers are playing with confidence compared with Michigan State and their wins over Penn State and Michigan should stand them in good stead even if the scenario is different as a big favourite rather than an underdog.
I just believe Indiana's Defensive unit will set up a couple of short fields for Michael Penix Jr and their Offensive unit and that will be the key to helping maintain an unbeaten start to the 2020 season. The Hoosiers do have a miserable record against the spread as the road favourite, but Michigan State are 3-14 against the spread in their last seventeen at home.
The favourite has tended to do well in this Divisional series though and I do think Indiana are a much stronger team- I will look for them to cover thanks to a couple of late Interceptions which sees them head over this line.
TCU Horned Frogs @ West Virginia Mountaineers Pick: Both of these Big 12 teams are at 3-3 within the Conference which means the losing team in Week 11 will unlikely be in contention for the Championship Game. The winning team will only have a slim chance of becoming involved in the race for the Championship Game, but they will at least have some opportunity in a Conference which is led by teams who have already dropped a game.
The TCU Horned Frogs may have the momentum with back to back wins going into Week 11, while the West Virginia Mountaineers have dropped two of their last three.
It won't mean a lot in this game as the Mountaineers look to protect their unbeaten record at home in 2020 and the Horned Frogs look to keep the momentum going after those wins over Baylor and Texas Tech.
TCU have scored 33 and 34 points in those wins and they will be looking to establish the run against West Virginia in Week 11 from which their entire Offensive unit operates. In recent games there have been signs that the Mountaineers Defensive Line is beginning to wear down and that could be music to the ears of the Horned Frogs Quarter Back Max Duggan who had 154 yards on the ground in the win over Texas Tech last time out.
Max Duggan will appreciate how tough the Mountaineers can be when it comes to clamping down on the run having been held to 23 yards on the ground against this Conference rival in 2019. The TCU Offensive Line have paved the way for some big gains running the ball, but West Virginia have to be respected even if there has been a decline in their numbers over their last three games compared with the season as a whole.
It could be the make or break for the Horned Frogs Offensively on how well they are able to run the ball, because Duggan has not been as consistent throwing the ball as he would have liked. The Mountaineers Secondary have also played well and this is a team who can produce the turnovers to slow teams down when it comes to moving the ball against them and it is something the Horned Frogs can't really afford to do in what should be a competitive game.
Being back at home should be a huge boost for West Virginia who have been much stronger here than on the road in 2020. Their numbers reflect that and most notably with Leddie Brown as the Running Back is averaging a little under double the yards on the ground at home as he is on the road.
Leddie Brown is back in comfortable surroundings in Week 11, but the TCU Horned Frogs have long been a very stout Defensive Line and they are trotting out another one of those onto the field. In their last three games they have forced teams to average just 3.1 yards per carry on the ground and clamping down on Brown will at least give the team the chance to protect the Secondary.
That has been an area of weakness for TCU in 2020, although a part of the reason has been how strong they are on the line of scrimmage which forces teams to take to the air to try and move the ball. The Horned Frogs have allowed over 250 passing yards per game on average across their last three games and West Virginia have really been throwing the ball well enough to believe they can have success here even if Brown is limited on the ground.
The Horned Frogs have gotten their pass rush ramped up as they have shut down teams on the ground and that has to be a concern for West Virginia even if their Offensive Line have largely played well. Getting into the Quarter Back could force some mistakes throwing into this Secondary, although Jarret Doege has looked after the ball to make sure he gives the Mountaineers as much of a chance to win games as possible.
Having a full Field Goal with the road team looks very appealing here in what should be a very close game and I do think that is the best approach to this Week 11 outing in the Big 12. Both teams do have some strong trends as the road underdog/home favourite respectively, although the one concern has to be the fact that TCU have not covered in the last four of this Conference series.
The Mountaineers have blown out TCU the last two times they have hosted them, but I expect this one to be much closer with the Horned Frogs playing well at the moment. The underdog is 5-3 against the spread in the last eight in this rivalry and I will take the points here too.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Boston College Eagles Pick: The benefit of playing in a Conference is that you can sometimes overcome a single loss and still make your way into the College Football PlayOff picture. The defeat could always be avenged in the Championship Game, while Alabama have shown it is possible to earn a spot in the PlayOff even if you don't reach that Conference Championship Game but only have a single loss on the record.
Being invited into the ACC was seen as the chance for usually Independent Notre Dame Fighting Irish to show they can have the resume to make the PlayOff and the win over the Clemson Tigers in Week 10 is a huge boost towards that. They are now the only unbeaten team in this Conference, although that win as an Independent might have been good enough to earn a spot in the post-season and now they have to likely beat the Tigers again in the Championship Game later in the year.
Brian Kelly won't be worrying about that for now and instead the focus has to be on maintaining an unbeaten record through to the Championship Game. With that in mind they have to make sure they do not overlook the 5-3 Boston College Eagles who have already given the Clemson Tigers a scare in the regular season in 2020.
This is clearly not an ideal spot for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish having used so much emotion to beat the Tigers in Overtime last week. Next on deck is the North Carolina Tar Heels who have been playing well in 2020 too and so it could be easy to think Boston College are going to be an 'easy' opponent between those tough games.
In recent games the Boston College Defensive Line have improved their play considerably and that will be encouraging as they will try and make Notre Dame a little one-dimensional. Shutting down the run, or at least limiting it, will force Boston College to make Ian Book beat them although the Quarter Back is coming in off arguably his best ever College game.
Ian Book is capable of making some plays with his legs as well as his arm and he has largely been very careful with the ball to avoid turnovers and putting his team in a difficult position. He will have to be aware of the positive pass rush Boston College have been able to generate in recent games, but there are holes in the Secondary which Ian Book should be capable of exploiting and at least making sure Notre Dame are moving the ball even when they get behind the chains.
The care with which the Quarter Back has been throwing should mean Notre Dame have successful drives and that is going to put some pressure on Boston College even as a big home underdog in their search for an upset.
Boston College have been playing well, but they are not going to have it easy against this Notre Dame Defensive unit which has shown themselves as one of the top units in the nation. We may not have seen an awful lot of that in their win over Clemson in Week 10, but Boston College are not as strong Offensively as the Tigers although they do have a Quarter Back who should be heading into this game with a lot of motivation to have a very strong game.
It is unlikely that the Eagles are going to be ripping off too many big plays on the ground and so the pressure is going to shift to Phil Jurkovec who actually transferred from the Fighting Irish to the Eagles. He was not likely going to beat out Ian Book, but Jurkovec wanted playing time and he is going to want to show his former team what they may have had.
In all honesty Phil Jurkovec is not better than Ian Book, but you can't rule out the motivation he has to have a big performance. The Quarter Back has been well protected by his Offensive Line so he should have some time to make his plays, while the Notre Dame Secondary have given up one or two big plays that Jurkovec has to take advantage of.
You would be surprised if Phil Jurkovec can out-duel Ian Book for the entire sixty minutes, but the spot does look a good one for the Boston College Eagles to keep things close. They were blown out by Notre Dame last year, but the underdog is 9-4 against the spread in the last thirteen between these rivals and Boston College's 6 point defeat to Clemson can't be ignored.
While Notre Dame have been a solid enough road favourite to back at the window, Boston College have covered the spread in their last five as the home underdog. After an emotional win, I will look for Notre Dame to do enough to win this game but no blow out Boston College and so taking the points on offer looks appealing enough for me.
MY PICKS: Kentucky Wildcats - 17.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Indiana Hoosiers - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
TCU Horned Frogs + 3 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Boston College Eagles + 11.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Houston Cougars - 13.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Florida Gators - 17 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Northwestern Wildcats - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
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