Expect the remaining Week 9 Picks from the 2020 NFL season to be added to this thread in the coming days.
I begin with a selection from Thursday Night Football.
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: In another dimension this has the makings of a tremendous Thursday Night Football game in Week 9 of the 2020 season, but injuries have decimated the San Francisco 49ers. A defeat at rivals Seattle in Week 8 has dropped the team to 4-4, but it wasn't just the defeat on the field which makes them more than a Touchdown underdog in this primetime game against another NFC rival.
The defeat to the Seahawks came with more big injuries as Jimmy Garroppolo and George Kittle were lost, potentially for the season. That means the starting Quarter Back and the top Receiving threat on the Offensive unit are out along with a number of other players on both sides of the ball.
It isn't just injuries that the 49ers are dealing with, but illness too as a number of other players have been put on the Covid-19 list which makes it very hard to imagine how San Francisco are going to be moving the chains. In usual circumstances you may expect the 49ers to lean on the running game against the 5-2 Green Bay Packers who were just trampled by Dalvin Cook in Week 8, but San Francisco are down to their third string Running Back too with all of the injuries they are dealing with.
You would also have to imagine the Green Bay Packers are not overly concerned about Nick Mullens at Quarter Back who is 3-5 as a starter in San Francisco. With that in mind I do think the motivation of the Defensive unit is to show they are not going to allow teams to run up and down the field on them as easily as Minnesota did and they will look to clamp down on whoever is left to run the ball for the 49ers and force Mullens to try and beat them through the air.
I expect Kyle Shanahan to try and scheme up some good plays for the 49ers but it is very difficult to imagine them moving the ball with any consistency. They may have one or two nice drives, but the Packers Defensive unit should be able to win out and make sure Aaron Rodgers is in a strong field position for much of the day.
Aaron Rodgers didn't play badly last week, but he was not helped with the Vikings being able to do what they wanted Offensively. The Packers won the yardage battle against Minnesota, but the injuries at Running Back have not helped Green Bay who would like to have a lot more balance on the Offensive side of the ball to aid their future Hall of Fame Quarter Back.
Covid-19 has not only affected the San Francisco preparations as AJ Dillon and Jamaal Williams look set to miss out for the Packers, while Aaron Jones is still injured. It does mean Green Bay are unlikely to look to run the ball thirty times in this one and instead the focus will be on Aaron Rodgers to try and expose the injury hit Secondary the 49ers will be trotting out onto the field.
I expect Aaron Rodgers to have a relatively clean pocket and I don't think anyone is going to be able to slow down Davante Adams.
Other Receiving options need to step up for the Packers if they are going to have a real run at the Super Bowl, but in this game I do think the visitors can earn a big win as they use the Rodgers-Adams connection to move the ball down the field.
You do have to sometimes wonder what the motivation for a big road favourite may be, but the short week should mean Green Bay are in a better place considering San Francisco may not exactly know who is going to be able to suit up for them. The Packers also won't have forgotten being embarrassed here twice last season and I fully expect Aaron Rodgers to want to get himself some revenge having never forgiven San Francisco for picking Alex Smith instead of himself as the Number 1 Overall Draft Pick.
Green Bay are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six games on Thursday and they have also covered the spread in their last six following a loss.
I do respect the fact that San Francisco have a strong record as the underdog in recent games under Kyle Shanahan in that spot, while they have gotten the better of the Packers in California. However, this team looks short of the talent to beat one of the better teams in the NFC and even this very big spread may not be big enough for the underdog.
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: Two AFC South teams sitting at 1-6 for the season meet in Week 9 and this has the feeling of a game that will be more important as to final Draft positions rather than any potential PlayOff push. The motivation with that in mind has to be with the Houston Texans who don't own their First Round Pick anyway and I do think they can complete the sweep over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
That is as much down to the fact that the Jaguars are decimated by injuries as it is about having faith in a pretty average Houston Texans team. Any time a team is at 1-6 you do have to worry about backing them as a favourite let alone one that is favoured on the road, but the Texans do look like they have enough to win this one going away.
I would love to see Houston keep losing knowing the Miami Dolphins would have their First Round Pick in the next Draft, but the Texans have played better since firing Bill O'Brien as Head Coach and also come in off a Bye Week.
The Jaguars have also been on a Bye Week, but that has not helped them when it comes to the injuries on both sides of the ball even if a couple of the better Defensive players will be available in this one. Jacksonville are going to need those players as they are down their starting Quarter Back and will be giving the ball to Jake Luton who has yet to throw a ball in the NFL and who will be making his first start for the Jaguars in place of Gardner Minshew.
The Offensive Line had not really been protecting Minshew and that is the problem that is going to be faced by Jake Luton in this one. He can look to lean on the running game against a Houston Defensive Line which has not been able to clamp down on the run, but I do think the game-plan will be to play close to the line of scrimmage and try and shut down the Jaguars on the ground.
Doing that will give Houston the chance to unleash the pass rush at an inexperienced Quarter Back who is not expected to be the future starter in this part of Florida. Jake Luton may feel there are one or two holes in the Texans Secondary which can be exposed, but I do think it is going to be a day where the rookie has to look to play cautiously and avoid the big mistakes that many inexperienced Quarter Backs can be guilty of making.
While there are still one or two questions for Houston to answer Defensively, the Offensive unit have been playing with some confidence and the Texans managed to get through the trade deadline with this unit largely intact. They should be able to find a lot better balance on the Offensive side of the ball than the Jacksonville Jaguars and I expect Deshaun Watson to have another strong day.
It won't be all down to Watson as he should be ably supported by David Johnson running the ball at a Jaguars Defensive Line who have given up almost 5 yards per carry on average over their last three games. A couple of returning players may help, but Deshaun Watson is capable of making some plays with his legs and running the ball will at least mean the Quarter Back is playing in a clean pocket when he does drop back to throw.
Houston have not always protected Deshaun Watson as they would like, but the Jaguars have not really been able to generate a consistent pass rush. The Texans running the ball will ease that pass rush further and Watson can attack this Secondary which has given up far too many big plays over the course of the season.
The Texans have completed the Divisional sweep over the Jaguars in each of the last two seasons and they beat this rival by 16 points at home last month. While they may not match that margin, I do think Houston can cover this mark all the same.
Houston are 8-2 against the spread in their last ten games off a blow out home loss and they are 5-2-2 against the spread in their last nine as the road favourite. Jacksonville have played well out of their Bye Week in recent years, but this is a team who have not covered in their last four games as the home underdog and I do think injuries and a rookie Quarter Back will prevent the Jaguars from staying competitive in this one as far as I am concerned.
Seattle Seahawks @ Buffalo Bills Pick: This is not an ideal spot for the Seattle Seahawks who moved to 6-1 last week after beating the San Francisco 49ers and now have the sole led in the NFC West. A non-Conference game on the road in the Eastern Time Zone looks like a bad position for the Seahawks to be in, especially as this is the sole game in a stretch of five when Seattle do not face a Divisional opponent.
However Russell Wilson has not gotten the memo and his high level being produced at the moment is going to drag Seattle through games. The Quarter Back looks like he wants to show that he deserves the MVP award at the end of the regular season and Russell Wilson is also on track to throw 50 Touchdown passes and join some elite company.
He is going to be facing a Buffalo Bills team that may have snatched the torch away from the long-time kings of the AFC East the New England Patriots in Week 9. Despite leading the AFC East at 6-2, this still feels like a prove it kind of game for the Bills which should motivate them to try and perform even if this game comes after a run of consecutive Divisional games.
Ultimately Buffalo can show they are a team to be reckoned with in January by beating the Seahawks and it is also a chance for Josh Allen to have one of his better games in recent memory. After starting the 2020 season on fire, Josh Allen has just struggled for consistency in recent weeks, although he should be aided by a stronger looking running game to back him up.
Zack Moss looks to have taken over at Running Back and he has been really pounding the rock with success on the ground. Usually I would say Moss has a chance of having a big game and Josh Allen could have some successes too, but Seattle have some reinforcements returning on the Defensive Line and they have also looked to have turned a corner up front.
Some of that may be down to the fact that the Secondary has remained porous and so teams have taken to the air to move the chains. Jamal Adams could be back this week to help Seattle out and the Seahawks have made some big plays to turn the field on opponents as they bend, but don't break, when teams come at them.
Josh Allen has not really played as well as he would have liked in the last three games, but he has some talented Receivers at his disposal and I do believe the Bills will have some success as many of Seattle's opponents have.
However, I am not sure how Buffalo are going to stop the Seahawks with the way Russell Wilson has been playing. The Seahawks are missing some key Running Backs which has meant leaning on Wilson even more than they may want, but the Quarter Back has been up to the task and I am not sure Buffalo have the personnel to slow down DK Metcalf.
The recent numbers look better than the Buffalo Secondary may be playing because they include teams like the New York Jets and the Patriots who are not dominant throwing teams. That is what they are seeing in Week 10 and the Offensive Line have not really been able to stop the run either which should mean Seattle are able to do whatever they like even in the absence of some of the Backs.
Buffalo's pass rush could be a problem, but Russell Wilson has some solid Receivers much like Josh Allen and I do think Seattle can get into a position to win and cover the mark.
The Bills are just 3-8 against the spread in their last eleven as the home underdog, while Seattle are 13-5-1 against the spread in their last nineteen on the road. While I have mentioned the spot is not ideal for the Seahawks, I do think they are the better team and can win a shoot out behind Russell Wilson who should be able to out-duel Josh Allen.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers Pick: After finding another way to blow a big lead the Los Angeles Chargers look to be out of any PlayOff race at 2-5. Anthony Lynn won't want his team to end the 2020 season with a whimper though and the way the Chargers have been competitive even in losing efforts has to be encouragement to the Head Coach even if he is looking for a much more consistent finish to games.
There is still an outside chance that the Chargers could turn things around if they can find some consistency for sixty minutes, but they are in a tough Division. At least they can try and play spoiler for the Las Vegas Raiders who earned a win on the road in Week 8 at the Cleveland Browns to move above 0.500 for the season.
Jon Gruden has to be given credit for the quick turnaround he has been orchestrating with the Raiders who had long been the weakest team in the AFC West. Three losing seasons in a row will be a blow, but the Raiders look more convincing this time around.
However they do face a difficult schedule and I do think the Raiders will be tested by the Chargers despite what some may think by simply looking at the records of the teams. Derek Carr has played efficiently at Quarter Back, but the Raiders have suffered a number of losses on the Offensive Line this week and that is going to make things much tougher for the veteran signal caller who has long been playing for his starting role with Las Vegas.
Derek Carr may lean on the running game and Josh Jacobs does look like he will suit up- the Chargers Defensive Line has struggled to contain the run and we have seen players rip off some big gains against them, but you do have to wonder if the absence of some key starters on the Offensive Line works against that part of the Raiders Offense too.
If Jacobs and the Raiders are not able to get off some big runs and become stuck in third and long situations it is going to be a real challenge for Derek Carr to move the chains. We did see Drew Lock carve up the Chargers Secondary in the Broncos come from behind win over Los Angeles in Week 8, but the pass rush pressure the Chargers generate should put Derek Carr under some pressure and perhaps stall some of the drives.
Joey Bosa could be absent for the Chargers and that is another blow for them, but the Defensive unit will have something to prove having blown a big lead yet again in the 2020 season. They have been much happier with the overall performance of the Offense though as Justin Herbert has come in as a rookie Quarter Back and looks like being a sharp choice as the First Round selection of Los Angeles last season.
There has been some inconsistency with the running game in the absence of Austin Ekeler, but the Chargers should still be able to establish something on the ground. It is important to do so to give the team some Offensive balance, but they will still mainly lean on the arm of Justin Herbert who is facing a Secondary which is still learning and been giving up some big plays for much of the season.
Mike Williams and Keenan Allen are big threats for Justin Herbert to use and I do think he will be moving the chains through those Wide Receivers. The Quarter Back should also see a cleaner pocket than his counterpart Derek Carr and I do think that will give the home team a slight edge and lead to the home victory.
The underdog is 17-5 against the spread in the last twenty-two games between these AFC West Divisional rivals.
Over the last week the Chargers have become a narrow home underdog and they are 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five games off a loss, while they are 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four as the underdog.
Las Vegas have gone 5-1 against the spread in their last six on the road which has to be respected, but I think the absences on the Offensive Line is a setback for them this week. It is hard to trust the Chargers considering their year and the manner of some of their defeats from strong winning positions, but I think they get the better of this one.
Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: The Bye Week has come and gone for the Arizona Cardinals who had moved to 5-2 with a win over the Seattle Seahawks two weeks ago, but it hasn't given them the complete time to bring back some of their injured players. That has to be a concern for the Cardinals, but they will feel the three wins they have produced in succession has shown they can rely on their strong Offensive output to make up for those injuries and absences on the Defensive side of the ball.
The Cardinals are hosting the 4-3 Miami Dolphins who beat their Divisional rivals the Los Angeles Rams in Week 8 in what was Tua Tagovailoa's first start at Quarter Back having replaced Ryan Fitzpatrick.
A win is a win, but Tagovailoa has significant room for improvement in what is essentially a job interview in the remainder of the 2020 season according to reports. Those have been denied by Brian Flores and the Miami Dolphins, but it would make sense for Miami to see what they have at the position especially with another potentially high Draft Pick coming their way.
The injuries that Arizona are dealing with Defensively should give Tua Tagovailoa to have a much better performance than he produced in Week 8, although Miami could be down a couple of Running Backs which is an issue for them. The Dolphins have not really been running the ball with any consistency and you do have to wonder if they can take advantage of the obvious issues Arizona have had in trying to stop the run.
Failing to do so will put some serious pressure on a rookie Quarter Back even if the Cardinals are lacking the kind of pass rush they have become used to sending out onto the field. That may expose the Arizona Secondary and this should be a chance for Tua Tagovailoa to have a much stronger outing and show he may be the player to take over as franchise Quarter Back for the years ahead.
It would be a real disappointment if Miami are not able to score a few more Offensive points than in Week 8 when they needed the Defensive unit and Special Teams to bail them out.
They will need those points because the feeling is that the Cardinals will come out and pick up from where they left off before their Bye Week. They have scored at least 30 points in each of their last three wins and even without former Miami Dolphin Kenyan Drake I do think Kyler Murray and the Cardinals can move the ball with some consistency.
Chase Edmunds should have a strong game at Running Back- he will be a threat on the ground against a Miami Defensive Line which has really struggled to stop the run all season, but Edmunds is also a very effective Receiver coming out of the backfield and I expect him to have a strong game.
That should be important to keep Murray in third and manageable spots having seen the Miami Secondary make some big plays in Week 8. The Secondary remains the strength of the Dolphins, but DeAndre Hopkins is a hard Receiver to lock down and I do think the Cardinals will be able to make the plays to keep the chains moving too.
Much of this game is going to depend on how effective Tua Tagovailoa is in his second start in the NFL. If he is much better than last week he should give the Miami Dolphins a shot at the upset, but Arizona have had some time to prepare and I think that gives them the edge.
Being more consistent running the ball is where I feel Arizona will be able to win this game and pull away for the cover, although I respect a Miami team who are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten games as the road underdog.
Arizona have not been very good as the home favourite of late, but I think they can find a way to get the better of the Dolphins here and I will look for them to find a late Touchdown which may secure the cover.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: This is a monster spread for any team to cover in the NFL and especially for one that is playing on the road. However the unbeaten Pittsburgh Steelers look to hold all the cards when they visit the Dallas Cowboys who are down to a fourth string Quarter Back and coming into this game off the back of a blow out loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Ben DiNucci started at Quarter Back last week, but he showed his inexperience and the Cowboys feel the rookie is a long-term project rather than someone who should be thrown in again. The decision was made to bring in Garrett Gilbert and Cooper Rush and have a player who has thrown some previous passes in the NFL, although both are vastly inexperienced themselves.
Now they have to take on the much vaunted Pittsburgh Defensive unit which is arguably the best in the NFL and I am not sure how the Cowboys are going to move the chains with any consistency. They didn't score a point in the second half against Philadelphia last week and now they face a much better team all around which is not good news for Gilbert or Rush at Quarter Back.
If Dak Prescott was available you may think the Steelers have to respect him enough to leave some room for Ezekiel Elliot to at least pound the rock with some success. The Steelers have been good, but they have let some big runs get through their Defensive Line, but in this one I would expect them to load the line of scrimmage and make sure the Cowboys have to try and beat them through the air.
With some talented Receivers there may be an opportunity for the replacement Quarter Back to make some plays, but Dallas have struggled to offer their signal caller time since Prescott went down with an injury. The Offensive Line may be getting healthier, but it is still very difficult to imagine that the Pittsburgh Steelers are not able to get considerable pressure on whoever is standing behind Center and they can live in the backfield in this game.
That pressure may lead to mistakes and this Steelers Defensive unit have thrived on creating turnovers which has helped Ben Roethlisberger who has yet to really take a game on his back in the 7-0 start made by Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh will be looking for their Offensive Line to establish the tempo in this one to help the entire unit out and that means leaning on James Connor. We should see Connor have one of his better games of the season agains this Dallas Defensive Line, although stopping the run is another area the Cowboys can improve now that they have a couple of key Linebackers back to help out.
Even then I do think James Connor will help keep the Steelers in front of the chains and that is important for Big Ben who has some talented Receivers at his disposal. An inability to stop the run has perhaps helped the Dallas Secondary in terms of the recent numbers, but I also think a couple of the younger players have shown improvement even if still susceptible to giving up a big play or two.
I expect Pittsburgh to look to open the Secondary up by sending some screen plays and short slants at the Cowboys and then having Roethlisberger challenge them down the field. The Offensive Line has been really strong at protecting their veteran Quarter Back and so I expect Ben Roethlisberger to have the time to make his plays, while the Defensive unit are likely to set up a couple of short fields to take this game away from their hosts.
Dallas have not covered in their last eight games and while that run won't go on forever, I do think it may move another game. The Steelers are not a team who can always be trusted to cover a big line and they are off back to back big AFC games which are much more important to them, but I do think it is hard to see Dallas scoring a lot of points in this one which should naturally give the Steelers every chance to earn a big win.
The Cowboys have lost back to back games by wide margins to NFC East Divisional rivals and I do wonder if they can find the motivation to battle this non-Conference opponent even as the big underdog.
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: These two teams were supposed to be amongst the very best teams in the NFC this season and potentially having to meet again in January to decide which of them move on. The NFC South rivals meet for the second time this season as the New Orleans Saints look to complete the sweep of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers having beaten them at home in Week 1.
Since then it is the Buccaneers who have managed to move to the top of the NFC South at 6-2, although the Saints are right behind them at 5-2. A win for New Orleans would thus give them a huge edge in the Division through the remainder of the season and they look to be getting healthy at the right time.
There are one or two concerns about Drew Brees- there is no doubt he doesn't have the same arm strength of old and he has been dealing with a shoulder injury this week, although I do expect the veteran to suit up. He will definitely benefit from having Michael Thomas back for the first time since the opening week of the 2020 season and the Saints also have Emmanuel Sanders ready to go.
New Orleans have just struggled with their passing game without their top Receivers and that is perhaps not a big surprise, although they are still going to be tested by this Tampa Bay Defensive unit which didn't allow a lot of big plays when the teams met in Week 1. The Buccaneers Defensive Line has impressed by clamping down on the run and I do think they can on top of Alvin Kamara and Latavious Murray, although Kamara will be a big threat as a pass catching Running Back coming out of the backfield.
With Thomas and Sanders back, Kamara may be able to find a bit more space when he leaks out of the backfield, but the Tampa Bay Secondary have also played well and I do think they can give New Orleans plenty to think about. Sean Payton will always Coach up his Offense and find creases in the Defensive schemes he sees, but I do think the Buccaneers will be happy enough with the way they are playing and will look to at least give their own team a chance to win this one.
The first time these teams met in Week 1, Tampa Bay really struggled Offensively to get on the same page as Tom Brady and the veteran made a couple of mistakes. In each passing week since he has looked more and more comfortable with his Receivers and Brady will get Chris Godwin back on Sunday Night Football.
Add Antonio Brown to the weapons and his previous chemistry with Tom Brady and I do think this Tampa Bay team are going to be very, very dangerous when it comes to January. Tom Brady never holds onto the ball too long and he has been well protected by his Offensive Line so I do think the Buccaneers can take advantage of some of the issues the Saints have had in the Secondary in recent games.
It will likely all be down to Brady and his arm considering how well the Saints Defensive Line have clamped down on the run. Neither Tampa Bay Running Back has really pulled up any trees anyway so I don't imagine they are suddenly going to make a load of gains on the ground unless the Saints have to sell out to defend the pass.
I do like the the Buccaneers to earn some revenge here even if they looked poor in their win over the New York Giants on Monday Night Football. I don't think they were fully focused on that game as they looked ahead to this one and I expect Tom Brady and the Buccaneers to be much more efficient all around.
New Orleans have to be respected- they have been a tremendous underdog to back and they are getting more than a Field Goal here, but I think the revenge factor may be too much to overcome. Drew Brees might not be at 100% and I think the Receivers returning from long lay-offs may struggle at times, while Tom Brady is 2-1 against the spread from the three home games played for the Buccaneers.
I expect a lot of fun, but I will look for Tampa Bay to get the job done.
MY PICKS: Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Houston Texans - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers + 1.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals - 5.5 Points @ 1.90 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 14.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
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