The NFL season is moving on at a rapid rate and we are now just weeks away from the PlayOffs.
Nothing is being left to chance though and that means a backup plan has been produced and approved in case the Covid-19 crisis has an adverse affect on the remainder of the regular season with Bye Weeks running out and the potential for lost games looming. So far the NFL has actually done a really good job for the most part, but the College Football issues have underlined how quickly a good job can turn bad and I do think the contingency plans had to be made up just in case.
So with more than half of the regular season in the books, I think most will have changed their pre-season expectations and their Power Rankings would have moved considerably. Unsurprisingly I have to feel the same, although my pre-season AFC predictions look decent enough when it comes to the potential PlayOff shake up.
I had Buffalo, Baltimore, Tennessee and Kansas City all down as Divisional winners with the Wild Card teams being New England, Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Six of those seven teams look more than capable of making the post-season, although the Steelers are in control of the AFC North over the Ravens, while the Tennessee Titans will be in a big battle with the Indianapolis Colts over the next seven weeks.
The NFC predictions have not looked nearly as good- both the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers have been devastated by injuries and don't look like they are even going to make the post-season let alone win their respective Divisions.
I had Tampa Bay finishing above the New Orleans Saints, but both to make the PlayOffs, although their positions into January look like they are going to be reversed.
At least the Green Bay Packers look like they are going to win the NFC North and the Philadelphia Eagles should make the PlayOffs, albeit as Divisional Winners rather than a Wild Card team.
My Super Bowl prediction was the Kansas City Chiefs repeating with a win over the New Orleans Saints and I do think those two teams are still more than capable of making the big game. Topping their respective Conferences will make things easier, but I don't think either is going to do that which means a big road win or two are likely going to be needed.
Going into Week 10, my top five teams would be as follows:
1) Pittsburgh Steelers (8-0): they are the last unbeaten team and so have to be respected as such, but the Offense will only go as far as Ben Roethlisberger will take them and his injuries in Week 9 will be a concern for a team with no Bye Weeks to come.
2) Kansas City Chiefs (8-1): the defending Champions are quietly going about their work and will still believe the Number 1 Seed in the AFC is within their grasp.
3) Buffalo Bills (7-2): Josh Allen returned to form in a big way in Week 9 and the Bills still look to have an improvement in them on the Defensive side of the ball.
4) Green Bay Packers (6-2): I worry about the Defensive Line and their inability to clamp down on the run and that is going to be an important factor in January. However, Aaron Rodgers and the Offense have been rolling well enough to suggest another Super Bowl run is in this team.
5) New Orleans Saints (6-2): sweeping the Tampa Bay Buccaneers gives New Orleans control of the NFC South and this is a team getting healthier. Drew Brees is perhaps not the Quarter Back he was, but he still has enough to lead the Saints to the PlayOffs and potentially a second Super Bowl.
Week 10 Picks
It was a very strong start to the season, but Week 9 was the one I was looking to avoid.
Things might have looked a lot different if the Houston Texans had not played prevent Defense down the stretch to allow the backdoor cover, while the Los Angeles Chargers dropped two winning Touchdowns and those two events have swung the selections from a disappointing 4-4 to a 2-6 record for the week.
At least the Tennessee Titans and Green Bay Packers kept things ticking along, although on Thursday Night Football I will be opposing the former who host the Indianapolis Colts in Nashville.
Further selections will be added to this thread in the days ahead.
Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans Pick: There has been an acceptance of a proposal from the NFL in case the season is affected by the ongoing Coronavirus crisis and that has changed the nature of every game being played by teams. In previous years you would look at a spot for a team who may overlook an upcoming opponent if bigger, Divisional Games were on the horizon, but that may not be the case with Head Coaches knowing that every game could be pivotal if cancellations occur in the weeks between now and the PlayOffs.
Other teams will perhaps be worrying about how they can motivate their players through difficult moments, but that should not be the case for either Frank Reich or Mike Vrabel on Thursday Night Football.
They will be leading the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans into this hugely important Week 10 game, the first of two between these AFC South rivals in three weeks. The Titans lead the Division at 6-2, but the Indianapolis Colts are right behind them at 5-3 and so two Divisional Games could be vital to the outcome of the final standings.
There are no guarantees that the team finishing 2nd in the Division would earn a spot in the PlayOffs and that only increases the pressure on the Colts and the Titans who have big games in Week 11 before facing one another again.
Tennessee are coming in off an important win in Week 9 even if the team were not at their best against the Chicago Bears. It was the much maligned Defensive unit which stepped up on the day and there is a big challenge in front of Ryan Tannehill and the Offense to bounce back and have a much stronger all around showing in this game.
It won't be easy even with Derrick Henry running the ball as well as he has for much of the season- last week Henry struggled to really get into the Chicago Defensive Line and had fewer than 70 yards on the ground and this week he takes on the Indianapolis Defensive Line which has clamped down on the run all season even after the defeat to the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday.
Lamar Jackson had a decent game on the ground, but Indianapolis largely held down the Running Backs and in this game they won't face the same threat out of Ryan Tannehill scrambling with his legs. That should mean they can at least limit the damage Henry is able to do on the ground and force the struggling Quarter Back to make the plays through the air to move the chains up and down the field.
Ryan Tannehill has shown he is an effective starter in the NFL since arriving at Tennessee from the Miami Dolphins, but he had a rough showing against the Bears and is averaging less than 200 passing yards per game in his last three starts. There are one or two holes in the Indianapolis Secondary which could be exploited by Tannehill, but he will have to deal with the Colts pass rush pressure if Derrick Henry is struggling to rip off the big gains and that will give Indianapolis every chance to find the upset and take control of the Division.
Much will depend on how Philip Rivers bounces back from a rough outing against the Baltimore Ravens- the veteran Quarter Back is not the same player he was even a couple of years ago, but this might be a decent match up for him and Rivers has shown enough to suggest there is still enough in the tank to win this Division.
It could all come down to Rivers because the Colts have not run the ball as well as they would have liked without Marlon Mack. They have struggled to run the ball efficiently all season, but it is unlikely they are going to be able to get things going against a Titans Defensive Line which has just put the clamps on teams running the ball against them in recent outings.
That has seen teams take to the air against the Tennessee Secondary and it has been an effective play. Desmond King has been brought in from the Los Angeles Chargers and made a big impact in his first game in Week 10, but TY Hilton is also back for Indianapolis to serve as a decoy if nothing else.
It should mean things open up for Rivers who should be given ample time from his Offensive Line against the weak pass rush generated by the Titans. With that extra time I do think the veteran is still capable of finding the holes in the Secondary to move the ball for Indianapolis and I do think they can win this game.
The battle with Baltimore was a difficult one for the Indianapolis Colts, but Tennessee didn't have an easy game either and so both teams should feel banged up.
Indianapolis are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games in Tennessee and they have won on their last two visits here. The road is also 4-1 against the spread in the last five of this Divisional rivalry.
The Colts are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six when coming off a blow out loss at home and Tennessee are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven as the favourite. It isn't a huge amount of points for the road underdog to be given, but I do think Indianapolis match up well with Tennessee and can win a close one to move on top of the AFC South.
Since writing this up the spread has moved very much in favour of the Colts, and I am sticking with them too.
Washington Football Team @ Detroit Lions Pick: If you reach the halfway mark of the 2020 season and you have a 2-6 record the chances are that you are not in contention to make the PlayOffs. However in the case of the 2-6 Washington Football Team there is still a chance to contend for the NFC East Division as they are only 1.5 games behind the Philadelphia Eagles leading the way, although the defeat to the New York Giants in Week 9 would have really stung.
They will be looking to bounce back in Week 10 when visiting the 3-5 Detroit Lions who have lost consecutive games to slip to three games behind the Green Bay Packers. Even a Wild Card spot looks beyond the Lions already and that means Matt Patricia has to be feeling his seat warming up as Head Coach of Detroit.
Matthew Stafford has at least been cleared to face the visitors, but Kenny Golladay misses out again and that has led to some inconsistencies from the Detroit Lions. They are also going to have a tough time matching up with the Washington Defensive unit which has been better protecting against the pass than they have in stopping the run.
Unfortunately for Detroit they have been happier throwing the ball than running the ball and I do think that may be an issue for them. Matthew Stafford still has some talented Receivers to throw to, but Washington's Secondary have played well in recent games and they are massively aided by a very strong pass rush which should be able to rattle Stafford and at times get to him and bring him down.
In recent games the Offensive Line have just had a couple more issues keeping Stafford upright and I do think the Football Team will be able to get to him if they are clamping down on the run and putting the Lions in obvious passing downs and distance. That may lead to one or two mistakes from the Quarter Back without his top Receiving option and at least gives Washington a chance of causing the road upset.
They have decided they are going to go with Alex Smith as the starting Quarter Back in Week 11 having not been impressed with Dwayne Haskins or Kyle Allen in that position. At the moment Washington still believe they can win the Division so going with a veteran makes sense, even if Smith is yet to show he is going to recover to the levels he was displaying before the horrific injury suffered two years ago which almost saw him lose his leg let alone play in the NFL again.
Alex Smith had three Interceptions last week which proved to be costly for the Washington Football Team in their loss to Divisional rivals New York Giants, but he did suggest he felt more comfortable and confident in his leg holding up. This week Smith will be facing a Detroit Secondary which has not been able to hold up in pass protection as they are getting very little up front and the Lions have also not made the plays to turn the ball over which should help the Quarter Back.
To make things a little easier for Alex Smith he can hand the ball off to the Running Backs on the roster and they should be able to rip off some big gains to keep the Offense in front of the chains in this game. That is important to make sure Smith is not feeling the pressure is all on him and the Detroit Defensive Line have struggled to stop the run in recent games.
I do like the visiting underdog with the points in this one, although the spread has slipped down to a Field Goal mark- having the hook would have been a huge advantage, but the number is appealing enough here with Washington looking more capable of moving the ball Offensively with some consistency.
The Lions are now 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as the home favourite and they are 5-14 against the spread in their last nineteen overall. While they may have the better record, I think the Washington Football Team might be able to take advantage of the Lions Defensive issues and cover the mark here.
Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns Pick: Heavy winds are expected in Cleveland for this game which is hosted by the 5-3 Browns who are coming in off a Bye Week. It has been an important time for Cleveland who may have lost Odell Beckham Jr for the season, but who have had a number of other key performers return and look like they could be set to go on Sunday.
They are hosting the 2-6 Houston Texans who won for the second time in 2020 when beating the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. It says plenty about the 2020 Texans that both of their wins have come against the terrible Jaguars and they are going to need to dig down deep to earn a victory on the road against a team who will be chasing a PlayOff spot in the weeks ahead.
You never know what could happen with Deshaun Watson at Quarter Back, but this does not look an ideal situation for him. The weather conditions are likely going to mean the game-plan is to try and keep the ball out of the air for as long as possible and Watson may not have David Johnson beside him in the backfield.
David Johnson suffered a concussion last week and is doubtful to say the least, but the Houston Offensive Line has not exactly been helping their team pound the rock with any sort of consistency all season. Now they have to go against a Cleveland Defensive Line which has thrived in stopping the run and who will be even tougher to run on in the conditions.
That sets things up for the Browns pass rush to pin back their ears and get to the Quarter Back and I do think Deshaun Watson is going to be under siege for much of the afternoon. There is no doubting this is a top Quarter Back capable of making plays, but he will need to take care throwing into this Cleveland Secondary which has been performing at a pretty good level too.
I definitely rate Deshaun Watson more than Baker Mayfield, but the Cleveland Quarter Back looks to have a lot more support around him at the moment. With the Defensive unit likely going to be making some big plays to slow down Watson and Houston, the Offense has been boosted with key returns on the Offensive Line as well as the backfield.
The Offensive Line has a couple of starters returning and set to be fresh off the Bye Week, while Nick Chubb has been reactivated having been placed on the short IR list and will give Cleveland a real dual threat at Running Back along with Kareem Hunt. Handing the ball off to Chubb and Hunt might be as taxing as things get for Mayfield for much of the afternoon as a healthy Offensive Line paves the way for some big gains against a Houston Defensive Line allowing an average of 5.9 yards per carry over their last three games.
The conditions may see Houston play much closer to the line of scrimmage to at least slow down the Browns, but Hunt in particularly is a threat catching the ball out of the backfield. All in all I do think Baker Mayfield will be given more third and manageable spots than Deshaun Watson and this Houston Secondary has struggled for the big plays all season which should mean Cleveland are moving the ball more effectively than Houston.
Even the Houston pass rush may struggle to get things going with teams being able to pound the rock against them and I do like the Browns to win and cover coming out of their Bye.
They don't have the best record in that spot, but Cleveland are 5-2-1 against the spread in their last eight as the home favourite. The Texans have not covered in their last seven as the underdog and in none of their last four as the road underdog, while the favourite is 6-2 against the spread in the last eight between Cleveland and Houston.
The Browns have tended to beat the teams they should so far this season and I think that is the case here too. I am a little concerned with the spread being over the key number 3, especially in the windy conditions that are set to affect this game, but I think Cleveland can make the plays to see them win this by around a Touchdown when all is said and done.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers Pick: I won't even begin to try and explain what happened on Monday Night Football when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were blown out at home by the New Orleans Saints. Things started badly and they never recovered for the Buccaneers, but at 6-3 they are firmly in the race to reach the post-season and Tom Brady will have spent a week itching to get back on the field and make amends.
It was some poor play from the Quarter Back and the rest of the Offensive unit which gave Tampa Bay's Defensive unit little to no chance to have any success in slowing down the New Orleans Saints. They should expect a more manageable time against the Carolina Panthers who have lost Christian McCaffrey for at least one more game having had him return in the narrow loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.
They may have a 3-6 record and the Panthers have lost four in a row, but during that time they have found the motivation to play the Saints and the Kansas City Chiefs very close. It won't take much to get the team ready to go against the other big rival in the 2020 NFC South and that makes Carolina a team that has to be respected.
However, Teddy Bridgewater and his team-mates have to know this Tampa Bay Defensive unit is stronger than the Chiefs one they played last week. For starters the Buccaneers have remained pretty stout against the run for much of the season and I do think Mike Davis will find it very difficult to establish the ground game and at least put Bridgewater in a manageable situation to try and keep the chains moving.
Misdirection and sweeps should at least help Carolina on the ground, but it will be largely down to their Quarter Back to keep the successes going with any consistency. Teddy Bridgewater should have some successes, but he will have to be aware of the Tampa Bay pass rush which could force him to hurry his throws into a Secondary which has made the big play even if we did not see that last week.
I expect the entire Defensive unit to come out and make a statement, but the same can be said of the Tampa Bay Offensive unit which struggled to do anything effective in their blow out loss last time out. Tom Brady is not used to being down by big margins like he was at half time last week and especially not at home, but the Buccaneers have responded in the right way by winning their next game by big margins following the first two defeats of the season.
Bruce Arians is still looking for his team to find an effective running game to ease the pressure on their veteran Quarter Back, but Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette have been lacking the consistency needed. It doesn't feel like either will get on track in this one, but the Buccaneers will try and stay balanced and that will give Tom Brady an opportunity to attack a Secondary giving up some big numbers.
Tom Brady has been well protected by his Offensive Line and Carolina have not really generated much of a pass rush which should mean the Quarter Back has time to make his plays. There are a vast amount of weapons at Brady's disposal and I do expect to see the team singing off the same song-sheet much more than they were in Week 9.
Plays through the air should set Tampa Bay up for a big win on the road and to get back on track.
They beat Carolina by 14 points the week after losing to New Orleans earlier in the season and the road team is 9-4 against the spread in the last thirteen in this NFC South Divisional series. Tampa Bay are 9-2-1 against the spread in their last twelve games following a defeat by double digits at home and Tom Brady has regularly bounced back off a loss.
Carolina in general have played well as the underdog, but they are only 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six as the HOME underdog and I will look for Tampa Bay to remind those watching there is still more to come from them.
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders Pick: Late Defensive plays inside their own End Zone helped the Las Vegas Raiders just about edge out the Los Angeles Chargers and move to 5-3 in the AFC West. This is another Divisional game for the Raiders as they host the Denver Broncos who fell to 3-5 in Week 9, but Las Vegas have to make sure they are fully focused and not thinking about their second meeting with the Kansas City Chiefs.
I have to think Jon Gruden would have made his team well aware that any PlayOff place could be earned or lost depending on the kind of focus they have in games like this one. The Raiders are going to be in a battle to earn a Wild Card spot assuming they will not be able to close the gap to the Chiefs leading the AFC West and that means every game is very important to Las Vegas.
Getting into the PlayOffs looks a long shot for the Denver Broncos who needed a late rally to beat the Los Angeles Chargers before coming up short with another rally in their defeat to the Atlanta Falcons. Injuries on the Defensive Line have been a problem for the Broncos, but Drew Lock and the Offensive unit have to like their match up with the Raiders Defensive unit and I think that will at least give Denver a chance to keep this one competitive.
You have to credit the Las Vegas Defensive Line for looking like they have stepped forward to find a way to clamp down on the run in recent games, but slowing down the Denver Broncos will not be easy. Melvin Gordon and Philipp Lindsay are both capable of breaking runs behind the Denver Defensive Line and they should at least put Drew Lock in third and manageable spots and give the young Quarter Back a chance for success.
There has been little to no pass rush being brought to the field by the Raiders and that should also be important for Drew Lock to locate Receivers down the field. The Las Vegas Secondary is still making some mistakes when it comes to protecting against the pass and even the late plays to stop the Chargers beating them last week should not paper over those issues so I am expecting Drew Lock and the Broncos to have some success Offensively which will give them the chance of earning the upset.
Running the ball may be the method in which the Las Vegas Raiders look to get the ball rolling downfield too, although you do have to wonder how they are going to cope with all of the injuries they have on the Offensive Line. It didn't really affect the Raiders against the Chargers last week and so I am expecting Josh Jacobs and his fellow Running Backs to have a good chance of moving the ball on the ground in this one too.
Denver's Defensive Line have not really played the run very well and they have plenty of injuries to deal with on that Line in Week 10. That should give the home team their opportunity to keep the chains moving and also help out Derek Carr who can use play-action to open things up down the field.
He will need to be operating in third and manageable spots to ease the Denver pass rush with Head Coach Vic Fangio insistent on throwing the blitz at opponents to cover up the injuries on the Defensive Line. It has worked at times and may give Derek Carr something to think about in this game, but there are holes in the Denver Secondary which may take a couple of weeks to sharpen up now key players have returned to fill those.
With that in mind I do think Las Vegas are the more likely winners of this game, but I still believe Denver will have a chance to cover while this line is above a key number. Las Vegas are 1-5 against the spread in their last six home games going back to their time in Oakland, while Denver are 5-1 against the spread in their last six following a loss and they are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten as the road underdog.
I am not convinced Drew Lock is the franchise Quarter Back Denver may hope he is, but I do think he can do enough to help the Broncos cover as the underdog here.
MY PICKS: Indianapolis Colts - 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Washington Football Team + 3 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns - 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Denver Broncos + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Los Angeles Rams - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills + 2.5 Points @ 2.05 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers + 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Week 9: 2-6, - 8.36 Units (16 Units Staked, - 52.25% Yield)
Week 8: 6-2, + 6.60 Units (16 Units Staked, + 41.25% Yield)
Week 7: 4-3-1, + 1.26 Units (16 Units Staked, + 7.87% Yield)
Week 6: 6-4, + 3 Units (20 Units Staked, + 15% Yield)
Week 3: 8-3, + 8.64 Units (22 Units Staked, + 39.27% Yield)
Week 2: 7-3, + 7.10 Units (20 Units Staked, + 35.50% Yield)
Week 1: 6-3-1, + 4.62 Units (20 Units Staked, + 23.10% Yield)
Season 2020: 39-24-2, + 22.86 Units (130 Units Staked, + 17.58% Yield)
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