The last couple of days have been a little frustrating for the Tennis Picks from the World Tour Finals as both Andrey Rublev and Alexander Zverev have had points to win and cover, but both have failed to do that.
On the other loss in the last couple of days I have to say I was very surprised to see Novak Djokovic fall away as dramatically as he did against Daniil Medvedev, but the World Number 1 will have another chance on Friday. He will have to win that match against Alexander Zverev to avoid consecutive Group Stage exits at the World Tour Finals and it should be a very interesting match in a repeat of the 2018 Final.
Dominic Thiem - 1.5 games v Andrey Rublev: Qualification for the World Tour Finals Semi Finals has already been secured for Dominic Thiem who has recorded wins over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Rafael Nadal earlier this week. It does raise the question as to how much motivation he has to win this match and twelve months ago Dominic Thiem did win his first two matches in the Group against Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer only to lose his third match.
That came against winless Matteo Berrettini who has a big game and now he has to take on winless Andrey Rublev who was knocked out of the tournament on Tuesday. The young Russian player came from a set down to lead the match in the tie-breaker, but Rublev was not able to convert his Match Point and ended up a narrow, but deserving loser in his match against Stefanos Tsitsipas.
He did play much better in that match compared with the one against Rafael Nadal, but Andrey Rublev may have begun to look forward to the off-season having put in such hard work on the indoor hard courts over the last month. Andrey Rublev had won a lot of matches, but he has admitted that he has not always felt his best when playing the top names on the Tour and it may be a case of improving the mental aspect of his level rather than the capabilities on the court.
In this tournament Andrey Rublev has been really let down by his return of serve having won less than 25% of the points played on the return so far. He has faced at least five break points in both matches, but Andrey Rublev has only created a single break point in his two matches and that could be a real problem for him in this match if Dominic Thiem is serving as he has done in London.
Dominic Thiem has held serve in 92% of games, but he will need to improve his own returning numbers if he is going to win this tournament. He has only broken once in both matches played so far, and that will give Andrey Rublev a chance in this one and especially when you think Thiem has spent a lot longer on the court than his opponent.
The two previous matches between these players on the hard courts have been competitive, although Andrey Rublev pulled away with a good looking win over Dominic Thiem in Vienna last month. That has to give Rublev some confidence, but I have a feeling he is going to go the same way as Daniil Medvedev last year who came into the World Tour Finals in strong form but was not physically ready and lost all three matches in the tournament.
I would not be surprised if there is a tie-breaker in the first set considering how these two have been returning, but my edge is with Dominic Thiem. The match could quickly disappear for the loser of the first set as both players may have other things on their mind, but my feeling is that Dominic Thiem will earn revenge for the loss to Andrey Rublev at home and find the big points going his way to win the match.
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: Both players have earned a win over Andrey Rublev and been beaten very narrowly by Dominic Thiem, but that makes things very simple for both Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas.
The winner will be competing in the Semi Final on Saturday and the losing player will be taking some time off before wondering whether they are going to be able to begin their 2021 season in Australia as is traditional.
It should be a really good match on Thursday evening, although I am leaning towards the former World Number 1 to get the better of it and progress at the expense of the defending Champion. That status means Stefanos Tsitsipas definitely needs to be given some respect, but it also should be noted that Rafael Nadal beat him here last year, although it was not a good enough result to help the Spaniard reach the Knock Out Rounds.
Instead his sets win-loss record was the worst of the three players that finished with four points and Nadal missed out. That won't be on his mind in this one with the simple permutation making it much easier for Rafael Nadal, although Stefanos Tsitsipas is playing well enough to believe he can cause problems.
The two players are both relying heavily on their serve with Nadal holding in 95% of service games played and Tsitsipas holding in 92% of service games played. However it is Nadal who has a slight edge when it comes to the return and I am expecting that to be the difference between the players on the day.
In their previous six matches Rafael Nadal has held 90% of his service games played against Stefanos Tsitsipas and that number becomes 97% when considering their three hard court matches alone. Last year Nadal didn't even face a break point in his win over this opponent and he has to be confident his serve will hold up here on the form shown over the last few days.
The Stefanos Tsitsipas numbers have not been as strong against Rafael Nadal as the other way around with 72% of his service games being held in their three hard court matches. He has faced twenty-six break points in those matches, including nine here last year, and I do think Stefanos Tsistipas is more likely to make some mistakes or see Rafael Nadal inspired to play the tennis to get into a position to break serve.
I expect the match to have some drama with as much on the line as there is for both, but Rafael Nadal should have the edge and I think he comes through with a win and a cover.
MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
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