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Wednesday, 18 November 2020

ATP World Tour Finals Tennis Day 4 Picks 2020 (November 18th)

The O2 Arena does not feel right without the fans, but for a brief period of time you could have been forgiven for forgetting about that and concentrating on the really good tennis produced by Dominic Thiem and Rafael Nadal. It was the Austrian who not only came out on top, but Qualified for the Semi Final, and the US Open Champion must be feeling good about his chances of going one better than last year.

Rafael Nadal made some late mistakes which proved to be costly on the day, but he has to be pretty happy with where his game is at as he will look to confirm his place in the final four with a win on Friday.


The run of winners from the tournament came to an end on Tuesday with Andrey Rublev missing out on Match Point in his three set loss to Stefanos Tsitsipas, That has ended the Russian's hopes of progressing in London, but it has been a strong season and one to build on next year.


On Wednesday Group Tokyo 1970 will see the second Round Robin matches completed and it is another day where we could see one player exit and one player move into the Semi Final to be played on Saturday. Both matches bring intrigue onto the court and my Picks from those can be read below.


Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: Both of these players were pretty comfortably beaten on Monday which has put the pressure on both Alexander Zverev and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman when they take to the O2 Arena court for the second time this week. Straight set defeats can be devastating in the Group Stage and likely means the winner of this one is going to have to do the same again on Friday to progress to the Semi Final.

The 'easier' path looks to be with Diego Sebastian Schwartzman who was beaten by World Number 1 and ATP World Tour Finals favourite Novak Djokovic in his first match. He will feel there is more of an opportunity against Zverev and then Daniil Medvedev, while the German is likely going to have to beat Djokovic in his last match.

It will all be for nought to worry about permutations at this stage of the Group and the sole focus has to be on winning this match and then seeing where that player stands on Friday morning.

You do have to like the chances of Alexander Zverev to bounce back as he continues to try and focus on his tennis rather than the problematic issues he is having off the court. He was in good form heading into the World Tour Finals and even the defeat to Medvedev should not have knocked the confidence too much for Zverev who has had some very big wins on this court over the past few years.

With that in mind I am sure Alexander Zverev still feels there is an opportunity for him to reach the Semi Final this week and his performances on the indoor hard courts should be too much for Diego Sebastian Schwartzman. I have to really respect the kind of level that the latter has found on the Tour and even to reach this tournament is a huge achievement for Schwartzman, but the surface and the conditions do not favour him.

He wasn't in great form in the matches played on the indoor hard courts prior to the World Tour Finals and I mentioned that Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has struggled against the elite players on this surface before his loss to Novak Djokovic on Monday.

These two players might be at 2-2 in the head to head, but it would be foolish to ignore the fact that Alexander Zverev has won both of their matches on the indoor hard courts including in the Cologne Final last month. Those two wins have been very one-sided and Zverev has not dropped serve in either, while also breaking at least three times.

He did not serve well in his defeat to Daniil Medvedev, but Alexander Zverev should be much happier with this match up and I think the German will win. You can guarantee Diego Sebastian Schwartzman will put up a fight, but his own serve is very attackable on this surface and I will look for Alexander Zverev to cover this handicap mark.


Novak Djokovic-Daniil Medvedev over 22.5 games: The 'Big Three' may still be the players to beat on the ATP Tour, but there are some up and coming players who are looking to break that dominance and look capable of doing that in the years ahead. One of those is Daniil Medvedev who looks to have all the tools to become a Grand Slam Champion on the hard courts and who has already surpassed his first appearance at the World Tour Finals by winning his opening match on Monday.

Now the young Russian player gets ready to take on World Number 1 Novak Djokovic who will be desperate to win this tournament for a sixth time. While impressing in his opening win, Novak Djokovic will be the first to admit that the two remaining matches are expected to be much more difficult than the one he has faced already.

Previous matches against Daniil Medvedev have been very competitive and there is no doubting Medvedev's confidence having won the Paris Masters in the lead up to the World Tour Finals. Novak Djokovic was not involved in that tournament, but he has only played four matches since being hammered in the French Open Final by Rafael Nadal and I do think that this is a considerable step up from the previous four opponents.

He did snap a two match losing run to Daniil Medvedev when beating him back in January in the lead up to the Australian Open. However it was the third time in a row a best of three set match between Medvedev and Novak Djokovic has gone the distance and there is a feeling that this one will be no different.

In fact only one of their previous six matches has ended in straight sets and while the numbers suggest that Novak Djokovic has had the better of the play, their last two matches on the hard courts have shown how closely these two are matched. Both have needed three sets to separate these players and they have finished 1-1, but Novak Djokovic has a narrow advantage of holding 80% of his service games compared with 77% for Daniil Medvedev.

The World Number 1 does seem to protect his serve a little more than Daniil Medvedev, but there isn't much between them and it may come down to who is more clinical when the break point chances are made.

My personal feeling is that Novak Djokovic will edge to a victory here, but I am not sure it will be in straight sets. Even a tight two setter will suit me as I look for the total games line to be surpassed by two players who have tended to push each other to the limits.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic-Daniil Medvedev Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)

World Tour Finals: 4-2, + 3.64 Units (12 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)

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