Week 10 has some very big games in College Football and I am looking to pick up from some of the momentum earned last week.
North Carolina Tar Heels @ Duke Blue Devils Pick: Two losses in the last three games played have just slowed down the positive vibes that surrounded the North Carolina Tar Heels and they are unlikely to be involved in the ACC Championship Game. The Tar Heels do have a solid 4-2 record for the season, but they have been beaten as big favourites against the Florida State Seminoles and the Virginia Cavaliers.
Under the guidance of a returning Mack Brown, the Tar Heels have been disappointed with their performances on the road and that has been the case with both defeats this week. However they are once again big road favourites when they visit the Duke Blue Devils who are 2-5 on the season, but who are 1-5 in Conference play.
This is a rivalry game though and I expect the Blue Devils to be very competitive and their biggest margins of defeat this season have been 18 points. That is a big margin, but they are in receipt of double digit points and the Blue Devils look to match up effectively enough with North Carolina in this game.
It won't take much research to know what Duke want to do in this game and that is pound the rock right at the Tar Heels Defensive Line which has struggled. Those difficulties have been particularly evident when you see North Carolina trying to stop the run in their two losses and the Blue Devils do very much lean on their Running Backs and know their Offensive unit goes as far as those players can take them.
Duke should be able to establish the run against the Tar Heels and I don't think they move away from the game-plan unless they are in a deep hole and being forced to throw the ball to stay in the game. Chase Brice hasn't played badly at Quarter Back, but he would love to be in a position where the running game keeps him in manageable spots on the field and that should mean Brice is able to have success through the air against this North Carolina Secondary.
Running the ball is also very important for Duke to keep the pocket as clean as possible and ease any pass rush North Carolina generate to stifle their Offensive plays.
With the Blue Devils likely to have success moving the chains, the pressure moves to North Carolina to try and stay with them. You have to believe that is going to happen for a team who are a big favourite to win this game, but it may be down to Sam Howell at Quarter Back to make the plays to keep the Offense moving.
In recent games the Duke Defensive Line have stepped up their level of performance and they will feel they can at least force North Carolina to take to the air to beat them. That is not exactly ideal with Howell performing really well at the Quarter Back position and the Duke Secondary still giving up some big plays, but slowing the run would at least mean the Blue Devils can unleash what has been a very productive pass rush at the struggling North Carolina Offensive Line.
While I think Sam Howell is going to find the plays to keep the chains moving, it just takes a couple of Sacks to stifle drives and force Field Goals and I think that could be key in keeping this rivalry game close and competitive.
None of the last four games between the Blue Devils and Tar Heels have been won by a margin bigger than 10 points. Duke are 12-3-1 against the spread in their last sixteen games as the home underdog too.
North Carolina do have some favourable trends, but this is a big number and I will take the points with the home underdog.
South Florida Bulls @ Memphis Tigers Pick: Another Conference which has had to make changes to the Division approach in the 2020 season to ensure a regular season could be completed is the American Athletic Conference. It already feels like an unlikely situation for the Memphis Tigers to play in the Championship Game as they sit with a 2-2 record within the Conference.
Chasing a place in one of the Bowl Games that are set to be played has to be aim for the Tigers down the stretch and they are looking to show they are a lot better than the blow out loss to the Cincinnati Bearcats in Week 9 would suggest.
It is a good opportunity for Memphis to get back to winning ways as they face the South Florida Bulls who have a 0-4 record in the Conference and who are only just averaging over 20 points per game in those losses. However, the Bulls are also going to believe this game offers them a chance to at least be a little more productive Offensively if nothing else and the team have had a Bye Week to at least put things right.
The real struggle for South Florida in recent games has been trying to run the ball efficiently, but the Memphis Defensive Line has really had problems clamping down on the run. It was the Bearcats who really hammered the ball down the Memphis throat in Week 9, but South Florida may be hoping that some of the wear and tear allows them to have success too.
Throwing the ball will be the best way to move the chains in reality for the Bulls against a Memphis Secondary which has not been able to make enough plays through the air. They have allowed over 400 passing yards on average over their last three games, but Memphis have been able to create Interceptions and that may be the best way to slow things down here.
If they can at least limit the run, Memphis do have the pass rush to disrupt the South Florida passing game and that will perhaps give them the extra possessions needed to cover this big spread.
The number says a lot more about the inability of South Florida rather than the strength of the 2020 Memphis team, but the Tigers will believe they can have a much better Offensive outing than what they showed against Cincinnati in the blow out defeat. Like the Bulls, Memphis have not really run the ball as they would have liked in recent games, but they are facing a Defensive Line which has not been able to contain the run and that should aid the Tigers.
It will mean Brady White is under pressure to make the plays through the air for the Tigers, but the recent South Florida games suggest it will be possible to do so. White is having a decent season and the Bulls have allowed on average almost 250 passing yards across their last three games.
One difference between these teams is that South Florida have not really been able to get much of a pass rush in play and giving Brady White time should only help the Tigers all the more.
There is no doubt this is a very big number, but I do think Memphis are capable of covering as they still look considerably better than South Florida. The Tigers are 8-3 against the spread in their last eleven games off a defeat and the favourite is 5-1-1 against the spread in the last seven in this series.
South Florida have been a strong road underdog to back and Memphis have not always performed as a home favourite, but I will look for the Tigers to make enough plays at the line of scrimmage to pull away for a big win.
Boston College Eagles @ Syracuse Orange Pick: The claim to fame for both of these teams is that they have pushed the Clemson Tigers in losing efforts to the favourites to win the National Championship at the end of the 2020 season. That is a credit to both the Boston College Eagles and the Syracuse Orange, although it is only the Eagles who look on track to become Bowl eligible at the end of the regular season.
They are big road favourites to beat the Orange in Week 10 and you can't really argue against that as Syracuse have struggled for efficient and consistent play out of their Quarter Back. That has not been the case for Boston College who are much happier with their Offensive plans and you do have to expect the Eagles to come away with the win.
I expect Boston College to have a strong balance to their Offensive output with an ability to run the ball coupled with efficient throwing into the struggling Syracuse Secondary. The Orange Defensive Line have not been able to clamp down on the run either and there is not a strong pass rush that can affect the Boston College throwing attack.
With talk that Syracuse may begin to give their younger players experience that will set them on the right road to success in the years ahead, I do think Boston College will have success moving the ball up and down the field. They should be able to control the clock too and the Eagles should be able to score plenty of points here.
However the key for the Orange is that they may be able to establish the run themselves which will at least give them a shot in this game. Syracuse have certainly improved when it comes to playing behind this Offensive Line in recent games and the Eagles have given up almost 200 yards on average on the ground over their last three games and those have come at 5.4 yards per carry.
It is important to give the Orange a chance to put themselves in manageable positions on the field and that will at least give their struggling Quarter Back corps a chance to make some positive plays. Dino Babers has already admitted he is going to use a committee at the Quarter Back position to try and give Syracuse the best chance of success and running the ball will also slow down the Boston College pass rush too.
While the Orange have struggled for consistency throwing the ball, Boston College have given up some big plays in the Secondary and that is where the home underdog has to take advantage.
My feeling is that Boston College deserve favouritism for the game, but this is not a great spot for the Eagles. They have just played Clemson really close and they next face another currently unbeaten team Notre Dame next time around and so it is easy to imagine that this game is one that the players could overlook or underestimate the opposition.
Syracuse have tended to fight back off the back of big losses, but Boston College have to be respected as the better team. However, the underdog is 8-2 against the spread in the last ten games between these Conference rivals and taking the points looks the play.
Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Illinois Fighting Illini Pick: It has been mentioned before that in normal circumstances teams do have an opportunity to build into a season and into Conference play, but with the Covid-19 crisis in the United States it has not been possible this time around. To even be having some College Football is a success and the Big Ten Conference did start later than some of the others as they prepared for the shortened campaign.
At the moment it has still been suggested that six wins will be needed to be invited into the Bowl Games at the end of the regular season, although I do think that criteria won't be filled with games reduced. But that is for another day and both the Minnesota Golden Gophers and the Illinois Fighting Illini have lost both games played in 2020 and are desperate to turn things around here.
The more disappointing performances have come from the Golden Gophers who were a narrow underdog in their first game and then a big favourite against Maryland, a game they were beaten by a single point. On the other hand Illinois have been set as the underdog in both games played, but that won't be enough to save Lovie Smith's job unless he can start putting some wins on the board.
Once again Illinois are going to be a home underdog having been beaten by the Purdue Boilermakers in Week 9. The Fighting Illini do look like they match up well with Minnesota on the Offensive side of the ball and I do think that will help them in this game as they look for a first win of the season.
It is clear that Illinois are going to want to run the ball and they have to be very excited at taking on a Minnesota Defensive Line which has allowed 8.6 yards per carry and who have given up 267 yards per game on average in their first two games. The Fighting Illini have been able to run the ball well enough in their first couple of Conference games too and it is going to be the key to the outcome of this one especially with the Quarter Back unit decimated by injury and illness.
A lack of a pass rush will give the Quarter Back a chance to make some plays in this one and being in third and short spots should be encouraging for Illinois. They may have to turn back to Coran Taylor who played well when coming into the game against Purdue, and Taylor will be facing a young and inexperienced Secondary that has allowed over 300 passing yards on average this season.
It should mean Illinois are able to have some Offensive success, but their own Defense has not played well enough to believe they can shut down the Golden Gophers in this one. However it does have to be noted that the strength of the Illinois Defensive unit looks to be going against the strength of the Minnesota Offense and that will at least give the home underdog a chance for the upset.
While Minnesota will be looking to pound the rock, the Illinois Defensive Line has actually impressed by holding teams to 3.1 yards per carry early in the season. Some of that might be down to the porous play of the Secondary which has allowed over 300 passing yards per game, but the Golden Gophers have not really shown a lot of consistency throwing the ball so far.
If the Fighting Illini are able to shut down the run they will be in a position to unleash the pass rush at this Offensive Line and Illinois can make some big plays to stifle drives. Forcing Minnesota to rely on a stuttering Field Goal kicking unit will be a big win for the home team and I do think the points are worth taking here.
PJ Fleck is a big motivating factor at Head Coach and he has gotten a good reaction from his Minnesota team off losses, but Illinois are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as the home underdog. The Golden Gophers are also 1-4 against the spread in their last five games against Big Ten opponents and I think there are enough points here to help Illinois stay within the mark.
MY PICKS: Duke Blue Devils + 11.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Memphis Tigers - 17 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Syracuse Orange + 14.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Illinois Fighting Illini + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Penn State Nittany Lions - 27 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
TCU Horned Frogs - 10.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
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