The first day of the World Tour Finals is in the books and it is Dominic Thiem and Rafael Nadal who have moved into a strong position in the Group with opening wins.
The Austrian battled past Stefanos Tsitsipas in three sets earning a measure of revenge for the defeat to the Greek star in the Final of this event last year. Later in the day Rafael Nadal was a very comfortable winner over in-form Andrey Rublev and that means those two players will meet on Tuesday with the winner most likely heading through to the Semi Final later this week.
For Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev they face an almost 'must win' match on Tuesday as the Group continues.
Before that we will see the Tokyo Group getting underway on Monday with the following my selections from the two Singles matches set to go.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: Andy Murray, Grigor Dimitrov, Alexander Zverev and Stefanos Tsitisipas have all won the ATP World Tour Finals since Novak Djokovic won his fifth title at this event. The World Number 1 will go into the latest tournament looking to match the record set by Roger Federer by winning a sixth End of Year Tour Finals, but Novak Djokovic fans have to be a little concerned with his recent form in London that has seen him come up short in recent years.
He has had another very strong year on the Tour, but Novak Djokovic has not played a lot of tennis of late and the relatively early defeat in Vienna in his sole indoor event will have come as another surprise. It does mean that Djokovic may be a little rusty when he heads out onto the court for the first time in London, but the match up is not a bad one for him.
Take nothing away from Diego Sebastian Schwartzman who has enjoyed the best year of his professional career and is going to be playing in the Tour Finals for the first time. The Argentinian reached his best career Ranking last month but the hard courts have been a surface on which Schwartzman has struggled to play his best tennis.
Respect has to be given to a player who reached the Final of one of the events played in Cologne on the indoor hard courts, but Diego Sebastian Schwartzman is very much a player who goes by how well he returns. Over the year he has held just 74% of the service games played on the hard courts, and he has regularly been at sub-80% in that category over the years and that makes it challenging to beat someone like Novak Djokovic.
The World Number 1 has held 87% of the service games played on the hard courts in 2020, but it is the 32% break number which really separates Novak Djokovic from the majority of the Tour. That number becomes 39% in the overall matches against Diego Sebastian Schwartzman, while Djokovic has broken in 43% of the return games played against this opponent on the hard courts.
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman is a battler and I don't think he will ever give up in a match, but his last two losses to top eight players who have also arrived in London have been very one-sided in the last few weeks. He has also lost his last seven hard court matches against top 10 Ranked opponents and I think Novak Djokovic will have the majority of break point chances and it will mean every opportunity of covering what looks to be a very big spread in his opening match here.
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 games v Alexander Zverev: There are some big potential problems coming up for Alexander Zverev if allegations made by a former girlfriend prove to be more and it has to be having an impact on the young German. He is a former ATP World Tour Finals Champion so playing in London shouldn't be a massive concern especially without fans in attendance who may want to make their feelings known about the allegations facing Zverev, while he has also managed himself on the court through a difficult time.
In reality Alexander Zverev should have been a Grand Slam Champion having had big chances to win the US Open, but he failed to take them and I did wonder if that would have a long-term affect on him. Instead he has bounced back from the defeat in the US Open Final and the indoor hard court performances have been impressive over the last several weeks having won back to back events played in Cologne before reaching the Paris Masters Final with a win over Rafael Nadal under Zverev's belt.
The performances have been at a high level since the end of the French Open with Alexander Zverev putting together a 12-1 record and holding 86% of service games played while breaking in 32% of return games. Those numbers have remained strong despite the fact that Zverev has played against a number of top 50 Ranked opponents and his previous successes at this tournament in London will give him confidence.
However the winning run was ended by Daniil Medvedev who won the Paris Masters at the end of a run where he had been beaten relatively early in a couple of tournaments played since the French Open. The Russian reached the Semi Final at the US Open and he is someone who is highly motivated after a poor showing in the Tour Finals twelve months ago when the overall form looked to be much stronger.
Daniil Medvedev might have been overcooked for that tournament and he should feel fresher with the Paris Masters title locked up. His overall numbers on the hard courts have been superior to Alexander Zverev and he holds the mental edge having beaten this opponent in the Paris Final earlier this month.
That means Medvedev has won two of their last three meetings, although it was Alexander Zverev who won when they played each other in the Group twelve months ago. That was a very close match and I do think Daniil Medvedev will feel he has more to offer than he showed that day and I am looking for him to frank the win over Zverev he earned on a similar court in Paris.
This has been a very productive year on the hard courts for Zverev and I do think he is playing well enough to be plenty respected in this one.
However, my feeling is that Daniil Medvedev is ready to have a very strong week in London after disappointing at the end of 2019 and I will look for him to edge past this opponent this time.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
World Tour Finals: 1-1, - 0.40 Units (4 Units Staked, - 10% Yield)
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