I will update this thread in the coming days ahead of the full selection of NFL Picks from the Sunday and Monday games in Week 11.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: When you take a lot at the NFC you do have the feeling that the NFC West is going to provide at least three of the seven teams that are expected to make the PlayOffs. Only one will be guaranteed to host a PlayOff game and that is the Divisional Winner which means the importance of the Divisional Games will not be lost on any of the leading teams looking for a run towards the Super Bowl.
This week on Thursday Night Football we do have the chance to enjoy a really important game as the Seattle Seahawks host the Arizona Cardinals. Both teams are at 6-3 in the NFC West, but the Cardinals are 2-0 in the Division and the Seattle Seahawks are 1-2 which really means the importance of this game is very much with the hosts.
Another defeat for the Seahawks would mean they have dropped three games in a row having gone down to the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams in their last couple of games. Russell Wilson has been huge at Quarter Back, but his last couple of performances have not been up to scratch and Seattle have also been beaten by the Cardinals this season to only add to the importance of winning this one.
While the Seahawks have been trending downwards, the Arizona Cardinals beat the Bills with a 'Hail Murray' in Week 10 to earn the victory in four of their last five. It was a close game, but Arizona probably deserved to win even if the manner was quite stunning.
Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins already have a very good chemistry and they are likely to pick up from where they left off with that last second win over the Buffalo Bills. Injuries have ravaged the Seattle Secondary and that has meant they have given up some big plays throughout the season and in recent weeks even the 'bend, don't break' formula has not been working for them.
The ability to scramble means Murray is able to get away from pressure and make plays down the field and he is not afraid to use his legs to move the chains down the field. He is arguably the most dangerous Quarter Back in the NFL at the moment with the balance he is able to put together on the Offense and he should be able to have some success throwing throughout this game.
However there are one or two areas in which Seattle have shown some improvement which may give their whole Defensive unit a boost. While they have struggled to defend the pass, the pass rush has been able to get to opposition Quarter Backs and the Seahawks Defensive Line has also been able to clamp down on the run in recent outings too.
It may at least give the Seahawks a chance to slow down a couple of drives and force Field Goals rather than Touchdowns and may offer Russell Wilson the chance to bounce back after a couple of difficult games.
At one point Wilson was the frontrunner for the MVP award by a considerable distance, but that is not the case now. He is still playing well, but perhaps forcing too many throws and making some bad Football decisions which is a huge cost for any Quarter Back.
Russell Wilson did have a very good game against the Arizona Cardinals in the narrow loss to this Divisional rival in the desert earlier this season. With Chris Carson back at Running Back I do think Seattle will be able to have some success moving the ball on the ground in this one against an Arizona Defensive Line which has given up 5 yards per carry across their last three games.
The Running Back has missed some time, but his threat may at least offer Russell Wilson some balance Offensively which can see him expose the injuries in the Arizona Secondary. The Seattle Offensive Line has not been protecting Wilson as well as they would have liked, but running the ball also means the Quarter Back does not have to hold onto the ball as long as usual, while the Cardinals have struggled to generate much of a pass rush.
The potential absence of Tyler Lockett will be a blow for Seattle, but DK Metcalf can bounce back in this one after a below par showing in Week 10. The big Wide Receiver was shut down by Jalen Ramsey in Week 10, but he has shown he is not likely to have two bad games in a row and only a big holding flag prevented him from winning the game for Seattle when playing Arizona in the first meeting in 2020.
Arizona do have a decent record in this part of the North West in recent years with wins in three of their last four in Seattle. However that has not helped them complete the sweep of the Seahawks and I do think the home team will bounce back after the two road defeats suffered in succession.
There are some strong trends favouring the underdog and road team in this series which is going to see the Cardinals well backed, especially off their late win in Week 10. However Seattle are 32-15-4 against the spread in their last fifty-one games off a loss and they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the home favourite.
The Cardinals have been a team who tend to play up to the level of opponent they are facing and I do have to respect how well they have played as the underdog under Kliff Kingsbury. Even with that in mind I do think Russell Wilson is ready to bounce back from a couple of sub-par performances and I will back the Seahawks to win this vital NFC West rivalry game and get back on track.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Washington Football Team Pick: It says everything about how poor the NFC East is that the Washington Football Team come into Week 11 with a worse record than the Cincinnati Bengals, but are in a much better place when it comes to potentially reaching the NFL PlayOffs in January.
Not often will you see a team with a 2-7 record going into Week 11 of the NFL season and they only 1.5 games out of the Division lead, but that is the case for Washington in the NFC East where all of the teams have losing records. They have a big game coming on Thursday as they earn the Thanksgiving Day spot at the Dallas Cowboys, but Ron Rivera has to make sure Washington are focusing on the Week 11 game as they look to put the pressure on their Divisional rivals.
The Cincinnati Bengals have the same number of wins as Washington, but they have a tie on the board which means they are holding a 2-6-1 record. No one expected the Bengals to push towards the PlayOffs with a rookie at Quarter Back, and they are coming off a blow out loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, but Cincinnati have to be happy with the majority of what they have seen from their team in 2020.
Joe Burrow is going to have a learning curve with a losing team, but he has shown enough to justify going with the Number 1 Pick in the last NFL Draft. He has found a real connection with fellow rookie Tee Higgins, although Burrow might have to do without the Wide Receiver this week.
Tee Higgins may be missing, but Joe Mixon is trending towards a return and that will be important for Joe Burrow and the entire Cincinnati Offense. The Offensive Line have played well to open holes for the backup Running Backs, but Mixon is a solid player at the position and he should have a chance to put up some good numbers against the Football Team Defensive Line.
It is really important to get the run established for the visitors who have struggled to protect Burrow when he drops back to throw, and now facing a Washington team who love to get to the Quarter Back. That pressure up front has helped the Secondary make some big plays, but if Cincinnati are able to run the ball it should give Joe Burrow a real chance to move the chains through the air too and at least make Washington have to score enough points to beat them.
That won't be easy for Washington despite the strong second half display from Alex Smith which suggests the Quarter Back has firmly put the terrible injury which has cost him two years of his career behind him. Alex Smith should have an easier match up than Joe Burrow as he is likely to be well supported by a ground game, but also should be dealing with a relatively clean pocket for much of this game.
However Alex Smith has not always looked comfortable throwing the ball down the field and instead has looked for short passes to be turned into significant gains. That has seen his Running Backs become heavily targeted when they seep out of the backfield and we should see more of the same on Sunday in Week 11.
It might be a winning combination in this game, especially if Burrow is without his big target in Tee Higgins.
I don't find it easy backing Washington because they are 2-7 and have been beaten twice by the pretty poor New York Giants team. It makes them hard to trust, but they do look to have a good match up against the Bengals even if the Thanksgiving Day game against the Dallas Cowboys could be a potential distraction for the home team.
Ron Rivera has made it clear that all of the remaining six games are going to matter to Washington if they are going to make a surprising run into the PlayOffs, but much will depend on whether the Defensive Line can rattle Joe Burrow into mistakes. If they can do that, Alex Smith should have the balance on the Offensive side of the ball which allows him to move the ball with some consistency and give the Football Team a chance to win.
The trends are pointing to the Cincinnati Bengals who have been a strong underdog to back and the Washington Football Team have not covered as a favourite in any of their last four games in that situation. However, I do think Washington may have the slight edge thanks to the balance they can find Offensively and I will look for them to head to Dallas with some confidence.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Cleveland Browns Pick: There is another NFC East versus AFC North battle to be played in Week 11 of the 2020 NFL season and that is a game in which the Cleveland Browns will be hosting the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Browns moved to 6-3 for the season when beating the Houston Texans at home last week, although there would have been a huge amount of people in Vegas either cheering or crying at Nick Chubb's decision to step out of bounds before scoring a Touchdown inside the last two minutes in that game. That meant the Browns failed to cover, but Chubb wasn't concerning himself about that and instead his focus is on making sure Cleveland keep winning games.
Nick Chubb returned from an injury and with Kareem Hunt they are forming a tandem that will be difficult for any team to stop. The 3-5-1 Philadelphia Eagles may be leading the NFC East, but this is a team who saw their two game winning run ended by Divisional rivals the New York Giants in Week 10 and whose Defensive Line have shown little appetite to stop the run in recent games.
That has to be a major concern when going up against the Browns Offensive Line which has been very strong all season when it comes to opening up lanes for Hunt and Chubb. Both players should have another strong game coming off big performances against the Houston Texans and Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are also going to be important parts of the passing game as Baker Mayfield looks to exploit the screens to help keep the chains moving.
Baker Mayfield has been well protected by the Offensive Line too, but it does feel like a game in which the conditions will mean a heavy reliance on the ground game to keep the chains moving as far as the Browns are concerned. That should ease any Philadelphia pass rush and also mean Mayfield is able to make quick throws when ahead of the chains as Cleveland look for another win over a team they should be beating.
The Eagles are perhaps better than their record suggests, but even as they are getting healthier they are struggling to put the consistency together that they need. This should be a game in which they show better than they did in their defeat to the New York Giants, but it is hard to trust the visitors who can't seem to get out of their own way.
Miles Sanders is back and he will be complemented by Boston Scott and the two Running Backs should have a chance to help the Eagles move the ball on the ground. Again, the conditions will dictate the importance of being able to run the ball and for much of the season the Eagles have been able to do that with success.
It is so important to stay competitive and ease some of the pressure that Quarter Back Carson Wentz is clearly feeling as he perhaps tries too hard to make good things happen. Usually that has resulted in bad things happening and Wentz will know he is likely to feel the heat from the Cleveland pass rush whenever he is in third and long spots which increases the importance of being able to run the ball.
There are healthier Receivers to throw to as well as for Carson Wentz, but he has not really been making the best decisions and this may be a difficult game for the Philadelphia Eagles.
Cleveland have not always been a great favourite to back, but they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five against a team with a losing record. The Eagles have some really poor trends going against them too and I think the Browns can make enough plays through either Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt to see them over the line.
I do think an Eagles team with more talent than their record would suggest are capable of turning things around and become a dangerous PlayOff team, but that may have to wait another week.
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers Pick: There might only be a game between these two teams, but at 4-5 the Detroit Lions have to feel better about their chances of perhaps earning a PlayOff spot compared with the 3-7 Carolina Panthers. Some of that feeling has to be down to the fact that the Panthers have lost five in a row and the Lions have won three of their last five which makes it feel like Detroit have some momentum.
Both have banged up Quarter Backs which is not going to help their cause, but the Detroit Lions look to have Matthew Stafford available this week. The same cannot be said of the Carolina Panthers who are expected to be without Teddy Bridgewater in Week 11 which means either PJ Walker or Will Grier will be asked to start.
The injury that Stafford is dealing with is a concern especially as the Lions will be back out in a few days time against the Houston Texans on Thanksgiving Day. It may mean he is not able to throw as well as he can, but Stafford will know he can lean on the Detroit rushing attack which has shown life ever since D'Andre Swift took over as the starting Running Back.
The Running Back should have a real good chance of a strong outing against the Panthers Defensive Line which has been gashed in recent games. They gave up some big plays to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 10 and Swift will feel he can pick up from there as well as being a real threat catching balls coming out of the backfield.
It is going to make the Detroit Offense dangerous as long as Matthew Stafford is feeling he can still make all the throws. If that is the case he is facing a Secondary which has given up some huge yards in recent games and the limited pass rush pressure that the Panthers generate should mean the Quarter Back is able to pick his spots and make sure Detroit are moving the ball as they would like.
The injury to Teddy Bridgewater does lessen the ability of Carolina to keep up if this develops into a shoot out.
Carolina are not helped by the face that Christian McCaffrey is going to be missing again and you have to feel that Detroit will be looking to clamp down on the run and force an inexperienced Quarter Back to try and beat them through the air. That won't be easy because the Lions have struggled to stop the run, but Carolina don't have a big threat at Quarter Back which should make it a little more comfortable for the Lions to try and load the line of scrimmage.
I still think the Panthers will find some good gains on the ground and while the game is close they can keep up that method of attack. That should also mean whoever starts at Quarter Back is able to make some plays against a Detroit Secondary which has not been very good this season.
A part of the reason has to be the very little pass rush that is being generated by Detroit, but they might have more success if there some uncertainty from the Quarter Back for the Panthers whether that is PJ Walker or Will Grier.
The Panthers are 1-7-1 against the spread in their last nine at home and I do think the Detroit Lions can win here. You can't be feeling that great about backing the Lions to win on the road as the favourite, especially not with a Thanksgiving Day to come, but I do think they have more momentum than their hosts and they should be focused on keeping their PlayOff hopes alive through another week.
I will look for them to make some big plays against the Carolina Quarter Back late in the day which will move this game in their favour as the Lions get back up to 0.500 for the season.
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: There will be revenge in the air in Baltimore as the Ravens get set to take on the Tennessee Titans, the team who ended their Super Bowl ambitions back in January. Both teams are coming off important losses in Week 11 so there is a motivation to bounce back from that too, while you can't underestimate the chance of earning the tie-breaker with both the Ravens and Titans sitting in 2nd place in their respective Divisions at 6-3.
The spot looks like being a wash with both having very important Divisional Games in Week 12 which could end their chances of winning their Divisions. However, the Baltimore Ravens are scheduled to play on Thanksgiving Day and that short turn into their big game with the Pittsburgh Steelers could take away some of the focus from this one.
I am not anticipating that to be the case as the Ravens have lost two of their last three games and have to be really focused to make up for some of the banged up players on both sides of the ball which is affecting their level of performance. Lamar Jackson is still considered one of the top Quarter Backs in the NFL, but there is no doubting that 2020 has been a lot more difficult for him than 2019 and that can't be ignored either.
The passing numbers are considerably down on last season and part of the problem has been the injuries on the Offensive Line which means Lamar Jackson is not getting the same kind of protection as he was twelve months ago. Those issues on the O-Line have seen teams get to Jackson and bring him down in the backfield, but I do think the match up should be better for the Quarter Back in this one as he throws against a weak Tennessee Secondary.
Tennessee have simply not been able to get to the Quarter Back as well as they would have liked either and it should mean Jackson is able to make some big plays through the air.
That is important for Baltimore who have also struggled to run the ball as well as they would have expected to with the injuries on the Offensive Line contributing to those struggles too. Lamar Jackson does have Mark Ingram back with him and he is still making plays with his legs, but Tennessee have been showing a little more toughness when it comes to defending the run in recent games compared with the season as a whole.
I do think Tennessee will have to accept that Baltimore are going to make some plays against them, but I also like the chances of the Titans showing much better than their last performance when blown out by the Indianapolis Colts. The Titans were on a roll, but they have lost three of their last four games and Ryan Tannehill has been struggling, while the Offensive play-calling can be questioned.
The bottom line is that the Titans have to try and lean on Derrick Henry more than they have in recent games, although staying with Baltimore is the key so the can remain balanced Offensively. Derrick Henry should have a lot of success running the ball against the Ravens Defensive Line which has shown some signs of wear and tear when it comes to clamping down on the run.
Even if they can get to Henry early, the Running Back has a habit of breaking down bodies and then running over them in the second half and I do think he can have a decent game here. That will make life much easier for Ryan Tannehill whose numbers in the last three games have been very, very average.
Despite the injuries, Baltimore are still capable of making plays in the Secondary, but the struggle to stop the run has eased their pass rush compared with the early season form. That will be music to Ryan Tannehill's ears and he does have some big time Receivers who can step up for him and help the Titans continue to move the chains.
In recent weeks Tennessee have struggled against the spread, but they are not being over-rated in this one as far as I am concerned. They have had a little more time to prepare for this Week 11 game and Tennessee are also facing a Baltimore team who are 5-13 against the spread in their last eighteen as the home favourite.
Getting almost a full converted Touchdown worth of points looks appealing with the road team who can control the clock. Mike Vrabel needs better from his Special Teams unit, but if he gets that I do think the Titans are going to have every chance to cover against a banged up Baltimore team who may be looking to protect bodies before their Thanksgiving Day game at Divisional rivals Pittsburgh.
New England Patriots @ Houston Texans Pick: Every week in the NFL there are one or two spreads you may look at and wonder why the line is as small/big as it is- in most cases I move past those games and look for better options.
My reasoning for that is if a line looks too good to be true then it usually is, but I am finding it very difficult to move past the New England Patriots as a narrow favourite at the Houston Texans. A win in Week 10 has moved the Patriots back up to 4-5 for the season and they remain keen on chasing down a PlayOff spot, while the Houston Texans were losing again and are 2-7 on the season with both wins coming against the even more awful Jacksonville Jaguars.
Bill O'Brien is gone as Head Coach, but his moves continue to be heavily criticised. He won't be around to face his mentor Bill Belichick, but interim Head Coach Romeo Crennel is well aware of the Patriots organisation and will be motivated to get one over on Belichick himself.
The Texans were beaten at the Cleveland Browns last week which means they have dropped three of their last four games. With the First Round Pick in the next NFL Draft going to the Miami Dolphins thanks to one of the bonehead trades O'Brien made in his time as Head Coach and General Manager, it should mean Houston are focused on trying to put as many wins on the board in the weeks ahead even if the PlayOffs are beyond them.
Deshaun Watson at least gives the Houston Texans a genuine franchise Quarter Back and the team has to be built around him. This is a player capable of digging deep and having the monster game that is likely going to be needed for Houston to win this game, but Watson is not helped by the fact that the Texans have a limited ground attack to at least ease the pressure on him.
The injury to David Johnson means Duke Johnson will take the majority of carries, but Deshaun Watson is capable of making some plays with his legs too as he will look to keep Houston in front of the chains. The Offensive Line should at least give Watson time to throw down the field if he is forced to rely on his arm instead, although the New England Patriots look to be getting healthier Defensively and this has not been a Secondary that has been easy to throw against.
I do think Deshaun Watson is capable of still making some big throws, but I worry about the Houston consistency Offensively and they are now taking on a New England team who may have a spring in their step after back to back wins. They have played well Defensively, but Cam Newton looks to be getting healthier and the rushing Offense may be boosted by the potential return of Sony Michel this week.
Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels have tailored the Offensive unit around the strengths of Cam Newton who took over from Tom Brady and there have been signs that they can make enough positive plays to get back into the PlayOffs. The big Quarter Back is capable of running with the ball, but he has been given a boost by Damien Harris in the backfield and having Sony Michel back too makes New England dangerous.
This is particularly to a Defensive Line like the one Houston are trotting out onto the field, one that has really struggled to stop the run in recent games. I find it difficult to believe that will change markedly in this Week 11 game and it should mean the Patriots are set up to win.
Cam Newton is expected to be well protected against this limited Houston pass rush and that should see him able to employ play action to hit Receivers down the field. The Texans Secondary have perhaps got some stronger numbers by the sheer fact that teams can run all over them and so don't need to pass as much as they might do otherwise, and I do think New England can move into a position to win a third game in succession.
The Texans are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games as the home underdog and they are just 4-10 against the spread in their last fourteen in this Stadium overall. New England are Coached well enough to usually beat those teams they should under Bill Belichick and Houston are set for a Thanksgiving Day game which may be where the focus is for the players to show the nation they are better than their record.
The line is under a key number 3 and I think New England are worth getting behind to cover in this one.
MY PICKS: Seattle Seahawks - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Washington Football Team - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Detroit Lions - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
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