The ATP World Tour Finals is fully underway now with both Groups completing the first of the three Round Robin matches to be played to determine the Semi Final spots.
Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev got the job done for the selections on Day 2 at the tournament as both came through relatively comfortably. They meet each other on Wednesday while Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and Alexander Zverev will try and keep their tournaments alive.
Before that Group London 2020 has a couple of Singles matches ready to go on Tuesday with the two victorious players and the two losing players from Sunday meeting. The players who have been out on the courts have suggested conditions are pretty quick inside the O2 Arena and that seems to be the case from the numbers as we get set for a couple of good looking matches.
Dominic Thiem + 2.5 games v Rafael Nadal: Both of these players managed to put a win on the board to open their ATP World Tour Finals Group and the winner on Tuesday will feel they are well on their way to securing a Semi Final spot.
By the end of the evening the winning player between Dominic Thiem and Rafael Nadal might have confirmed their spot in the final four, but neither will be thinking too far ahead. The main ambition for both Thiem and Nadal has to be winning this match and putting themselves in a very strong position to Qualify for the Semi Final, while the losing player may still believe they have enough in the tank to work their way past this match.
That is all for another day and this looks like being a really good and competitive match.
Rafael Nadal looked in very good form on Sunday when he dismissed a red hot Andrey Rublev in straight sets and did not face a break point on the day. That is a good reason he can go into this second match as a significant favourite, but Dominic Thiem showed resolve in his three set win over Stefanos Tsitsipas despite dropping the second set on the day.
It was a much tighter win for Thiem who could have easily come out on the wrong side of that match, but it is the kind of win that will give the US Open Champion real confidence. Dominic Thiem has not always played his best tennis at this time of the year, but the shortened 2020 season should mean he is much fresher this time around and in recent matches against Rafael Nadal he has done more than simply push the former World Number 1.
In fact it is Dominic Thiem who has won two of the last three matches between these players and the surface at the O2 Arena in London is one that may actually favour the Austrian. He might not have the best record here, but Rafael Nadal has not been able to produce his best at this time of the season and the indoor hard courts are not really the kind of surface the Spaniard would want to spend a lot of time on.
Rafael Nadal was very good on Sunday in his straight sets win over Andrey Rublev, but I do think the younger player was perhaps a little nervous in his first appearance at the World Tour Finals. That is not something Nadal can rely on here and both of the previous two matches played on the hard courts between these players have been very, very competitive.
It is Dominic Thiem who has had the edge in the two matches on the hard courts with slightly better return numbers, but those have been awfully close and it won't take much to swing this match one way or the other. I do think the US Open Champion can get the better of the French Open Champion in this match and that is largely because Dominic Thiem has shown a little better form on the indoor hard courts compared with Rafael Nadal.
I do think the Spaniard is highly motivated to win the World Tour Finals for the first time and that makes him dangerous, but this is a match up that Dominic Thiem has not been overawed by the longer he has spent time in the top 10 of the World Rankings. At the Australian Open back in January it was Thiem who came through in four sets and the three sets he won were on tie-breakers which shows he can handle the pressure that playing Rafael Nadal brings.
It would be a surprise if Dominic Thiem is not able to win a set in this second Group match and I think that will be enough for him to cover with this start on the game handicap market.
Andrey Rublev v Stefanos Tsitsipas: The defending Champion was beaten in his first match and Stefanos Tsitsipas could be playing for his future in the tournament on Tuesday evening. The same is true for Andrey Rublev and this looks like it has the makings of a really good match between two players who will believe they have more to offer than what they have shown in their opening one on Sunday.
The player who will really believe there is more to offer has to be Andrey Rublev who was perhaps a little nervous in his straight sets defeat to Rafael Nadal. It was certainly not what was expected from a player who had produced a 12-1 record since the end of the French Open and I am looking for a reaction from him.
On the other side of the net Stefanos Tsitsipas will believe he had the chances to win his opening match against Dominic Thiem and he is now in a tough position.
This is a match up that hasn't really worked in the manner that Tsitsipas would have hoped in the past, although he did snap his run of three losses in succession against Andrey Rublev when beating him in straight sets at the French Open. I do feel that the clay courts are more favourable for Tsitsipas but he has lost both hard court matches against Rublev who prefers the faster surfaces.
Andrey Rublev has played really well on the clay courts recently, but the consistency has been stronger on the hard courts and I do think he has the tools to win this one as the slight underdog. While the serve is pretty effective, Andrey Rublev also has a serious edge when it comes to the return of serve compared with Stefanos Tsitsipas on this surface and I think that is very important in matches where there is likely going to be very little between the players.
The win at the French Open will give Stefanos Tsitsipas confidence that he can beat a player he respects and who had won their previous matches on the Tour. However I do think the Greek player was fresher for that match and this one on a hard court might actually favour the underdog who has held 89% of service games played against Tsitsipas on the surface compared with the 82% mark for the higher Ranked player.
It might go the distance again, but in this one I do like Andrey Rublev's chances of earning the slight upset.
MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
ATP World Tour Finals: 3-1, + 3.82 Units (8 Units Staked, + 47.75% Yield)
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