The Semi Final matches at the ATP World Tour Finals are set and I think the fans will be pretty pleased with the final four names involved.
I mean they would be if we were allowed to attend the O2 Arena for the last World Tour Finals played in London for at least five years.
Instead the players continue to admit that they are not finding it easy to be stuck in sterile conditions and you realise that everyone is feeling the same. Stefanos Tsitsipas spoke about things during his final press conference as he admitted it is hard to keep yourself stimulated and able to focus on the job at hand when so many of the things you would take for granted usually at these events are not enjoyed during a pandemic.
The players are still awaiting news from Australia as to how the Open is going to be run in January although it sounds like more and more believe the exemption that will be given to those travelling to the event is that they will be able to practice during the second week of the two week Quarantine set up. That likely means the Australian Open will be able to run from mid-January to the end of the month as it is scheduled, although any final decision is expected next month when the grander restrictions on travel are perhaps changed.
We should also have a better idea as to how the early weeks of the Tour are going to look, while the longer term picture is that there has to be a confidence that limited fans will be allowed at the French Open and Wimbledon when they come around in the months ahead. I would hope that is the case, although it remains a day to day discussion in the ever changing world.
Both Tennis Picks came back as winners on Friday with Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev covering as big favourites. My thoughts for the Semi Finals are below, but it does feel like the underdogs could have their day.
Dominic Thiem + 2.5 games v Novak Djokovic: For the second season in a row Dominic Thiem has done the hard work early in the week at the World Tour Finals before losing his final Group match. Again it has not prevented the Austrian from reaching the Semi Final as Group Winner and he is now ready to face the World Number 1 for a place in the Final of this tournament for the second season in a row too.
Unsurprisingly players at the top end of the ATP Tour tend to meet each other regularly at the World Tour Finals and these two are playing for the third time at the O2 Arena. It was Novak Djokovic who won the first, but Dominic Thiem beat him in a Group match last year which contributed to the early exit of the top Seed.
Only a win on Friday against Alexander Zverev prevented Novak Djokovic surprisingly losing in the Group Stage in back to back years and he is still on course for a sixth title at the World Tour Finals. It wasn't a long match, but it was a tough one and Djokovic has to know his level needs to be much improved if he is going to take the title here.
This match is one where Novak Djokovic can't expect to see the Dominic Thiem that was going through the motions on Thursday, but rather the one that has found the big shots to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas and Rafael Nadal already on this court. The US Open has been far from a dominant winner in either of those matches, but the conditions should suit his style and he has been serving well enough to bring the heat to Djokovic.
Dominic Thiem's serving could cause problems for Novak Djokovic who has not really been as effective on that side of his game as you would expect from the World Number 1. He did beat Diego Sebastian Schwartzman well enough, but Djokovic has won less than 29% of return points played against Daniil Medvedev and Alexander Zverev and that has to be a major concern.
The last two hard court matches between these two players have been highly competitive and my feeling is that this will be another considering neither player is really returning as well as they would like. It could come down to a point here or there when it comes to deciding sets and I would not be surprised if we need a decider again between Thiem and Djokovic to determine who is playing in Sunday's Final.
In those last two hard court contests, Novak Djokovic has a very slight edge when it comes to the percentage of points won on serve/return, but it is Dominic Thiem who has played the bigger points a little more effectively. I think something similar is going to come out of this one and instead of picking a winner I will look for Dominic Thiem to keep things very, very competitive in this Semi Final and back him with the games behind him.
Rafael Nadal v Daniil Medvedev: The second Semi Final might be played at an awkward time for sports fans in the United Kingdom, but it has the makings of being a really good, high quality match between Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal.
The only player to make it through to the Semi Final without losing a match, Daniil Medvedev has already made up for what he considered his poor showing at the World Tour Finals twelve months ago. Back then he exited at the Group Stage without winning a match, but Medvedev has not dropped a set in the tournament this year as he builds on the Paris Masters title he won earlier this month.
That run of form will give Daniil Medvedev confidence as he looks to beat Rafael Nadal on the professional Tour for the first time. Their previous three matches have all been won by the Spaniard, but Nadal will know how difficult they have been as he needed five sets to beat Medvedev in the US Open Final in September 2019 and then needed three sets to see him off at the ATP World Tour Finals in the Group Stage last year.
It was the only match Rafael Nadal won here in London in 2019, but it is a result that will give him confidence having beaten the defending Champion Stefanos Tsitsipas to reach the Semi Final. This is a tournament in which Nadal has not had a lot of success in the past, but he has played well through the Group matches and that will give the French Open Champion a belief that he can perhaps win this tournament for the first time.
Both players are winning over 71% of the points played behind serve in this tournament which will always give them a chance to win matches, but it is Daniil Medvedev who has displayed the stronger returning. The Russian has created at least eight break points in every match so far this week, but Rafael Nadal has only created fifteen break points in total and Daniil Medvedev has had a significant edge in terms of break percentage and percentage of points won on return compared with Nadal.
It is perhaps the reason he is favourite to win this match, but I can't help but feel Nadal has had the edge in their previous matches and could hold the mental advantage in this one. The last two matches have been very close, but Rafael Nadal has created more break points each time and he has held serve in 82% of service games played compared with Daniil Medvedev's 76% if you only count those two matches and not the one-sided win the Spaniard had in the Canadian Masters in August 2019.
Again I feel this could be a close and competitive Semi Final that goes the distance like the first one which is played earlier in the day. Daniil Medvedev has to be full of belief in his current form, but Rafael Nadal is playing really well too and I will look for the former World Number 1 to come through the key moments here.
As the underdog Rafael Nadal looks a bit of a value play even if Daniil Medvedev has had a narrow edge in numbers so far in this tournament. In their clashes it does feel like Nadal can get a little more out of his return against this opponent without compromising his own service performance and it may be key to the outcome of the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Dominic Thiem + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
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