NBA Finals 2020- Los Angeles Lakers vs Miami Heat
I am going to have a few more words to say about this Series when Game 1 is in the books, but for now you can read my thoughts about the opening tip of the NBA Finals below.
Wednesday 30th September
Miami Heat @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 1 Pick: The NBA Finals are here and the easy storyline is LeBron James going up against the team he has won the majority of his NBA Championships with. After moving to the Western Conference there was always a chance that James would meet one of his former teams, but not many would have expected that this season.
The Miami Heat need to be given a lot of respect for not only coming through the Eastern Conference, but only dropping three games despite seeing off the Indiana Pacers, Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics. There is a real stubbornness about this team that never seems to know when they may be beaten and they have had some of their role players stepping up and becoming much more than that in the PlayOffs.
Jimmy Butler is without a doubt the leader of the team and he has finally made it to the NBA Finals having not quite done enough when with the Chicago Bulls, Minnesota Timberwolves and Philadelphia 76ers. He is helping some of his team-mates become better players, but it is the improvement of Bam Adebayo which has been instrumental for the Heat.
They will need Adebayo to have overcome a couple of physical issues that he was dealing with in the Eastern Conference Finals, especially as he may be the main player that is going up against Anthony Davis for the Lakers. The Heat will believe that in Butler, Adebayo and Goran Drajic they have the experience to help some of the other players make an impact in the biggest Series of their careers.
Miami have been shooting the ball well and they are going to need their three point shooters to have their rhythm very quickly if the underdog is going to make this a real Series. Those players have to take advantage of the spaces that the Lakers have left for teams on the outside and especially early in the NBA Finals before the adjustments are going to be made.
Ultimately the Lakers are favourites because they still have the best basketball player in the world in their rotation. LeBron James has been playing like that, but the Heat have enough Defenders to try and slow him down and at least force someone other than James and Davis to beat them in this Series.
The role players have not always been the most consistent, but the Lakers have gotten enough from them although there is a feeling that they do have the lack of consistency that can lead to some huge cold shooting spots. This time they are facing a Heat team who are arguably the best Defensive team the Lakers have seen in the PlayOffs and that brings its own challenges to the fore.
LeBron James would have been motivated anyway, but the chance to get one over on Pat Riley after the acrimonious end to their relationship in Miami is going to fuel him even more. There will be a healthy respect for Erik Spoelstra who is showing himself to be a really strong Head Coach, but you can understand why the Los Angeles Lakers are going to be favoured in the NBA Finals.
The Lakers have started slowly in Series in the PlayOffs though and I think that may give Miami the chance to at least push them all the way in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. The Heat do look to match up pretty well with the Lakers with their role and bench players making things a little closer even though Los Angeles Lakers will be hard to knock off.
It was the Lakers who won both regular season games, but those were played in the 2019 calendar year and Miami are much improved now. They have also coped with the bubble very well and I like the way the Heat are operating at the moment, although they do live or die by the three point shot.
Out of the two teams the Heat have dealt with the break between games better than the Lakers as far as the against the spread numbers are concerned. LeBron James' teams have also tended to come out slowly out of the game in the PlayOff Series he has played and I think that could be the case here in Game 1.
Friday 2nd October
Miami Heat @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 2 Pick: The First Quarter was going to plan for the Miami Heat and maybe they thought things were going to be too easy for them in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. After an early 13 point lead, the Heat were obliterated by the Los Angeles Lakers for around 25 minutes and found themselves 87-55 down in the middle of the Third Quarter.
It would be easier to imagine things are going to change if Miami had not seen Goran Drajic and Bam Adebayo both banged up to the point that their status is in question for Game 2. Neither player will want to be sitting on the sidelines, but it is hard to imagine either being effective and this looks a terrible match up for the Heat.
They simply were not able to stop the Lakers when the Western Conference Champions got on a roll and they were dominated on the boards. Finding the answers to that is not going to be easy, especially if Miami are short-handed for this one and the layers have responded by making the Lakers a much bigger favourite in Game 2 than they were in Game 1.
Jimmy Butler has urged his team-mates to play with more aggression and belief in this one having given up a big lead with some poor Defensive effort. That would have been easier without the injuries they are dealing with and I really do struggle to see Miami competing.
In saying that Game 2 should be the one moment where the Heat rally around one another and put in the best effort they can without two of their three best players. That is something the Los Angeles Lakers will be expecting having taken the best punch in Game 1 and turning things around in their favour.
Anthony Davis and LeBron James are the best players on the court and both were very strong in their opening win. It is hard to believe that the two are going to be fatigued or looking too far ahead and everything is pointing to the Lakers moving into a 2-0 lead.
The spread may be more interesting than most will believe as I imagine the Lakers are going to be a popular play. With a big effort put in by Miami, the Heat should be looking to keep tabs with the Lakers by putting in a huge Defensive stand to slow down the favourites.
Even if they can't the feeling is that Miami may struggle with the depth of their rotation and I think that is going to lead to a game that may narrowly miss the over again.
It came close to the point of covering in Game 1, but that was largely down to the Lakers and I do think the best chance Miami have is by slowing things down and winning the battle on the boards. As long as they are much more competitive than in Game 1, it may just slow the scoring enough in this one too.
MY PICKS: 30/09 Miami Heat + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
02/10 Los Angeles Lakers-Miami Heat Under 216.5 Total Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
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