Stefanos Tsitsipas is going to wake up on Saturday morning and wonder what exactly happened in his Third Round loss to Borna Coric- personally I have no explanation for what was a terrible collapse in the fourth set when seemingly in control.
That means the first of the four Outright Picks have exited the tournament on what was an otherwise pretty good day for the Tennis Picks and it is a frustrating defeat. The Quarter looked there for the taking for Stefanos Tsitsipas and if he had served out the match in the fourth set (having had two chances to do so) or taking any of the multiple Match Points created I do think we would have been in a strong position to have earned a winner there.
Instead I have to be in a happy place with the way Novak Djokovic is easing his way through to the second week, although the challenges always get much tougher at this stage of any Grand Slam even one that has lost some of the top names from the draw.
We will see the completion of the second week line up by the end of Saturday evening in New York City and there are some top matches going out onto the court during the day. It looks like a scorcher in this part of the United States and that brings its own challenges to players especially the Men who have to play the best of five set situations.
Andrey Rublev - 7.5 games v Salvatore Caruso: In each of the last two Grand Slam tournaments played, Andrey Rublev has reached the Fourth Round and he is looking to make it three in a row here in New York City on Saturday. The previous two Slams have both been played on the hard courts and the young Russian is also a former Quarter Finalist at the US Open while going into this Third Round match as a pretty strong favourite to progress.
You can't argue with the layers believing in Andrey Rublev who has yet to drop a set in the tournament and having won two titles on the hard courts in 2020 before the pandemic which saw the Tour suspended. The Number 10 Seeded player has been serving well in each of his first two wins to back up the kind of numbers being produced on this surface over the last twelve months and that also means Rublev can play with some freedom when it comes to the return of serve.
Andrey Rublev is an effective server anyway, but he has been very strong on that side of his game in this tournament and that only gives him a stronger edge in the match. It will be a real challenge for the underdog Salvatore Caruso who has perhaps surprisingly earned his way through to the Third Round.
Before this tournament, Salvatore Caruso had not won a Grand Slam match on the hard courts of either the Australian Open or the US Open in the main draw. He has needed four sets in each of the first two matches here and Salvatore Caruso was perhaps fortunate to come through the Second Round match considering his opponent earned more break points over the course of the match than he did.
The Italian is someone who does enjoy the returning side of the game, but his own serve can be vulnerable and that is an area that Andrey Rublev is more than good enough to expose. I expect that will be the case while Rublev has a serve that is more likely to produce the big holds even when put under pressure at times and that not only gives him the edge, but likely means Andrey Rublev puts a comfortable win together.
At this stage of the tournament this is a big line for anyone to cover, but Andrey Rublev should have enough about his game to work through to a number of breaks of serve. With a stronger serve on display, I think Rublev will be ready to move through the gears and produce a strong win to take him through to the second week of the tournament.
Serena Williams - 3.5 games v Sloane Stephens: There is no doubt that there is some real pressure on Serena Williams as she continues to chase a 24th Grand Slam title to level the record mark set by Margaret Court. Many times in the last couple of years it has looked like Williams was ready to win the Slam she needs, but she has failed to get over the line which means there is more pressure on her the next tournament she competes in.
You also can't ignore the fact that Serena Williams has not been playing at the same level she once did and that makes her more vulnerable in the draw these days. Defeats to the likes of Shelby Rogers and Maria Sakkari in warm up events for the US Open only increased the fog around Serena's chances to win this title, while the American has looked far from dominant in either of her first two matches.
Even with that in mind, Williams is still putting up some strong numbers although she would like to get more out of her serve if she is going to have a chance to win the title here. It is still a big weapon for Serena Williams, while it can't be ignored the kind of miserable form Sloane Stephens was displaying before the US Open began.
The lower Ranked American is another former US Open Champion and even the year Stephens won the title she had to be considered an outsider having returned from an injury and not shown a lot of form ahead of the tournament. I respect Sloane Stephens for the fact that she is a streaky player who can quickly rediscover her best form and that can see her go very deep into tournaments despite showing nothing in the weeks before it began.
Over the last twelve months Sloane Stephens was 4-10 on the hard courts and in 2020 she was at 1-7 with some very average returning hurting her case. That has to be a concern ahead of this match against Serena Williams, although Stephens has been seeing the ball pretty big so far over the last week with over 50% of return points won in each of the first two matches.
Those marks are considerably better than the 37% return points won in 2020 on the hard courts and makes Stephens a player that has to be respected. However Sloane Stephens has lost four in a row to Serena Williams since upsetting her in the Australian Open Quarter Final in 2013 and I do think the Stephens serve is perhaps more vulnerable of the two going to the court.
It could be a really fun match to watch and one where the underdog could offer some resistance, but I do think Serena Williams is still playing at a level that could be difficult for Sloane Stephens to match. Barring the latter turning back the clock and really producing the tennis that took her to the title here three years ago, I think Serena Williams will eventually have too much and pull away for a big, good looking win.
MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 William Hill (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Elise Mertens - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sofia Kenin - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur-Karen Khachanov Over 40.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
US Open Update: 28-26, - 2.36 Units (108 Units Staked, - 2.19% Yield)
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